Good Sunday, everyone. The North Pole is coming to Kentucky over the next couple of days and that spells trouble in the form of dangerously cold temperatures. The bitterly cold air will be ushered in by a late day blast of snow that gets followed up by arctic snow showers.
The day may start with a batch of light wintry precipitation breaking out across parts of central and northern Kentucky. Temps will then warm well above freezing and into the 40s during the afternoon hours. This will allow for a band of showers to develop and work eastward ahead of the arctic front.
That front works across the state as a wave of low pressure develops along it and lifts northward. I discounted this low impacting our weather with snow 3 days ago and continue to point toward a band of snow developing behind the arctic front. That shows up well on the Hi-Resolution RPM Model…
You can see the rapid change to snow with as temps drop 20 degrees in less than an hour after the front passes. Winds will gust up and snow showers and squalls will kick in behind the main snow band. There will be a big fluff factor with the flakes that fly after the first hour or so.
How much snow will fall where you live? I continue to blanket the entire state with 1″-4″ and that doesn’t even need a map. Will you be near the low end or the high end of the spread? That depends on just how wide the initial band of moderate to heavy snow is. That will require nowcasting.
Regardless of exactly how much snow you get… this isn’t a snowfall to plan on making a snowman or going sledding. The gusty winds will make sure of that as a lot of blowing snow will be noted of whatever falls.
Travel conditions will go downhill in a hurry this evening as the roads freeze up with the temperature drop and then we throw some snow on top of that.
I realize the snow is what everyone wants to talk about… but the cold has always been and continues to be THE story of the next few days. Readings will continue to drop all day Monday and will go below zero before the day is over. Those readings will continue into Tuesday morning and could hit -5 to -15 in many places. Record lows and record low high temps are both in jeopardy during this time.
Those types of numbers are wicked and dangerous, but things really become scary when we throw the wind into the mix. Wind chill numbers will make it feel from -20 to -30 degrees Monday and Tuesday. It’s absurd to see these types of numbers over such a long time frame.
I cannot stress enough how dangerous Monday and Tuesday will be. PLEASE take all necessary precautions to protect life and property!
Let’s get a few tracking toys for the early part of the day…
Current temperatures
I will have updates later. Take care.
Cant wait for the fun stuff. maybe the snow will fluff up with all the cold……………….. First
it all comes down to how Heavy the snow is behind the front.
maybe this system will overpeform than the models are predicting. due to it being and unique situation.
I am just trying to be optimistic.
everybody be safe out there today and Monday.
I think by Wednesday we will want the blowtorch.
we were suppose to get 1-2 inches last night, we ended up with 7 here in the colorado foothills. hopefully it overpreforms for you all as well.
upvote
Tommy…you moved to the snow…lol…and I moved further away from it…but we do have a winter weather advisory for snow here in east tn. So maybe I’ll get a little..lol….hope your doing well my friend..
CB, later today could you come up with an estimate of the freeze time for west, central and east?
It could be a good guide for folks to know when to stay off the road. Probably dubious to do for various reasons, but no such thing (usually) as a dumb question 🙂
hey gang, 64 yesterday and today 7 inches of snow here in Littleton, Colorado! I couldn’t believe the track this thing is taking for KY snow, once again 100 miles is the difference between 12” and a cold rain. Lexington has to get a big one at some point its been 15 winters now…
This one seems to have the potential but we cant really know until it gets closer to us.Seems like these systems have a mind of their own to do as they please rather than what the forecast looks like lately.
The temps are back and forth in London tonight.Was in the high 30s earlier then down to 27 and now back up to 32.Difficult to forecast in recent times.I suppose there is more that can affect a system now than there was in the past.
should be a wild ride!
stay safe folks.
As event gets closer, looking at HPC, we’re no longer in the slight risk for 4 inch…..In addition, just a few hours ago, Sunday night forecast from NWS was for 2 inches (here), not it’s for 1 inch here……
Light coating of ice on the vehicles this AM and roads have some moisture to them but are just wet for the moment thanks to residual salt.
looks like a hell of a snowstorm is cranking across arkansas and missouri right now, deformation is setting up to far northwest to even give northern ky any snow chances, paducah may still be far enough west to get 3-4 inches. this has a springfield, mo to carbondale to indianapolis type swath to it.
Some light showers, flash freeze and a few flurries with bitter cold is what I see. Pretty much total model failure with this storm.
I guess I shouldn’t say total model failure, they just missed the set up of the low pressure system by 250-300 miles or so, LOL…
NAM nailed the west trend though.
Rapid Refresh model has changeover by 8pm this evening for Louisville give or take an hour.
Looks like the NAM has regained command for this event as regards precipitation type.
Hey, on the brighter side of things, less snow means less cold. So, instead of -9 degrees at my house, -3 degrees is going to feel wonderful, except when the wind blows….
just checked out NWS in Jackson website and saw they had cut our snowfall totals. Last night I checked it around 9pm and we were on a solid 2-4 in not we are in 1-2 in. Guess we will see.
Chris, I am with Bubba…do you have an idea of timing on the freeze? Or at least a thought…In looking at the maps 9high res) it looks like we could be getting snow around 6 PM….the time church starts. Just wondering about getting there and back home safely. I realize that some will call it off as a precaution, but there are a lot that won’t as well. In either case, everyone stay safe and pay attention to the weather conditions as the day goes on. This system is dangerous, and a lot of us have not seen cold to this degree for a while.
Guess I will look like Ralphie from A Christmas Story when I go to work tomorrow….”Can’t put my arms down.” thank goodness for long johns! Have a GREAT Sunday everyone and stay safe! thanks Chris. I know this is going to turn into a busy day for you and your weather team. You guys are appreciated more than I can express!
Knoxville weather is still giving 3-6″ for Bell and Harlan Co’s above 2,000 ft. 6″+ anything above 3,000 ft.
The system is just now tapping into the gulf moisture. I am liking the looks of it so far. The snow shield is much much wider than the rain.
My brother and sister-in-law live in Minnesota where the governor cancelled all schools due to cold this coming Monday!!
FWIW a couple of quick observations. The low pressure system is currently setting up on the LA/Ark border not in northern Arkansas as the NWS maps have it. Also, cold air appears to be injecting into the precip.
keep giving us reports throughout the day if you do not mine.
you seem to be a person with vast knowledge concerning this matter.
What a let down for the snow! Those squalls have maybe one inch written all over them. Ugh!
it is funny last year the nam was horrible. this year it has been for the most part the best.
last year it was the GFs
the year before that it was the euro.
In the end no matter what model is doing the best we here in Kentucky lose.
Not a surprise in regards to the snow.
Just checked my thermometer. It recorded a low of 28 so far today and now the temp is 38. Forecast seems on track. I don’t recall too many 40 degree + temp drops in a 12-hour period. That is impressive to say the least.
Here’s to hoping that that by some mysterious reason, the extreme cold stalls and doesn’t quite make it to our area. At this point, that would certainly be the best case scenario. Since Indiana is once again getting our snow, let them keep the arctic air….we surely don’t need it.
Latest NWS Forecast Discussion (0830), mentions the reason for the reduction in snow totals, as a dry slot is expected to form and move with the post frontal precipitation.
Ha, typical … warms up for the best precip and then we get a dry slot when it gets cold enough to snow. Wow, what did KY do to hack off Mother Nature?!
I can live with real cold air if decent amount of snow comes with it
I am about ready to put my snow shovel in a yard sale this spring.
another year of so many missed opportunities.
you would think the law of averages would catch up at least one winter.
We’ve seen it all haven’t we? Moisture robbing from severe weather in the deep south, dry slots, warm air advection, bad track of the low. Maybe for once we’ll see something we haven’t seen in awhile–higher than forecasted totals!
Can’t wait to go waterfalling after the roads clear. The “ice volcano” that forms below Yahoo Falls in McCreary County will be awesome after this freeze. If you’ve never seen it , go check it out when the roads clear.
http://www.mccrearytourism.com has directions.
I guess the bengals game will be rain with later arrival time of the snow, boring !
Models are pointless now its going to be a nowcast event. Just gonna have to wait and see how fast the artic air can intrude with the precip.
1994 called and said this system is adorable.
http://www.kyclimate.org/factsheets/recorlowtemp.html
I was unfortunately outside in that for a couple of hours and it felt literally like your soul was freezing.
I lived in Mason County back in 1994 and it was amazing how much snow we got I loved it. Hoping this system puts out more than they are saying cause I really want a good old fashion snow fall for once!!! I just hope we get a big snow storm before spring hits!!! I’m not looking forward to the fridged temps so i’ll be in bed snuggled up everyone keep warm!!! Chris your awesome at what you do keep up the good work.
Come on folks you really didn’t think this was ever going to be a big snow maker for us did you? Low traveling from sw to ne north of the state, puts us in the warm sw flow we get the moisture from the gulf aka rain, rain and more rain . Then the front hammers through cutting off the moisture like a handle on your sink the cold air pours in just in time to turn those last few drops to a bit of snow and that’s it for this event. Sound familiar ? ( and of course our neighbors to the north get dumped on… Again. ) whoa did I just wake up from a dream?? No…. It’s just winter in ky.
IBIWISI=REALITY
Your right it is time to stop believing in fairy tales.
it is what it is.
Look at all that pretty moisture..In the form of rain..Maybe one of these days when Dinosaurs return it will snow..
So a Bubba Buster after all, but in a the negative way? Instead of a 2″ to 3″ ankle biter, a 1″ toe biter? Less than .5″ is an arch biter.
A more due north track makes no sense due to the cold air slamming to the south. Should have been more due south and stayed with the expected track the models have been showing. It was never a KY event, but not that far away.
Dry slots are another tool to some met excuses BTW.
Yes I find the dry slot comment comical. Low pressure center seems to be over SE Arkansas at the present.
What was it that CB was saying about not freaking out? That most of the snow was going to hit late afternoon and evening? Armchair meteorology at its finest right here on the comments section from your old pals Debbie Downer and Negative Nancy!
Don’t think anyone said we would not get some snow..It’s just frustration watching the cold air arrive to late when plenty of moisture is available..
CB though was basing that on a less due north track for the main event. Different track would mean different results.
I have not looked to see if so this morning, but if it is more due north, that should reduce any impact as far as wet stuff and also the overall cold.
CB will post soon, so if it is weaker he will let us know. Seems obvious though IF the track is more due north.
Not looking now cause going jogging while I have a warmer chance 🙂
Chris won’t back down now regardless
The northerly track of the low meant the low was going a bit stronger which causes the track to go further north. A less wound up low meant a more southerly track which meant more snow for the Commonwealth either way this will not stop the artic air from crashing in. The intensity of the cold of whats been advertise is a given.
Breaker Breaker rubber duckies in western Ky..Can you report thunder storms in your area..lol
The reds and oranges on the map are likely indicators of the rain mixing with sleet and snow and beginning to change over.
Good point Big Papa…
Yeah and would indicate an area where huge snowflakes are falling as well…
PLEASE bring ALL pets indoors or into a sheltered environment because these sort of wind chills can KILL your animals very quickly. For your local stray kitties, please crank open a garage or shed door to offer them shelter. Some old sacking or blankets in a cardboard box or tote will help keep them warm. Make sure that any outdoor water supply is checked regularly for freezing because dehydration PLUS severe cold can kill!! Please put dry food out for them. Refill bowls with warm water if on a porch, or in a shed or garage as water will freeze quickly as temps plummet!
Animals tend to be way smarter than humans in this regard, plus they’ve been surviving harsh wx conditions before humans ever figured out what fire was good for, so no over-dramatizations, please. They’ll be fine.
BigPoppaSnow
what good is a blog site without a PSA.(LOL)
You know WWITWB, without these “warnings”, it’s truly amazing that the human race has survived!
BPS
A quick couple inches of snow tonight for most looks good, two inches with snow showers and -25 wind child by morning ouch! If you like winter weather better enjoy next few days!
50s and rain for next weekend! So get ready for that Blowtorch talk again!
Still not blowtorch all that is typical January thaw happens every year in January.
Still believe Eastern Ky gets at least 4 inches..
I think 4-5″. We always get more anyway.
Lmao. That’s true y’all do. Many tend to forget that.
Updated model snow maps I’m seeing from other sites show zero snow for KY. Oh well.
come on you actually do not think we are not going to receive a quarter of an inch.
So IIRC, a map from just a few days ago trumpeted 6-8 inches of snow for my area by January 7, 2014 & now it’s down to zero. Other than providing employment for some weather hack, what purpose do these “models” serve? They are never correct and if by pure luck one out of 50 turns out half-right, what’s the point. I’ll give you one area we can start cutting Guvmint (yes, it’s intentionally spelled wrong).
BogPoppaSnow
CB just now tweeted no changes. His main point has been the back end and moisture drawn to the super cold temps to create fluffy snow.
Perhaps a more north flow means 1″ and a little more south, up to 4″.
I am going to believe in Chris’s forecast and I look forward to a little bit of snow…but not the cold.
It’s funny how people keep posting about what models are saying when they are crap for this area during winter, As Chris stated earlier this a NOwcasting situation on snow totals! Will you get 1 or 4 will not be shown by a model!
In other words, it’s a complete guess? Might as well say 0 – 60 inches of snow is possible, with temperatures anywhere from -10 to +90.
BigPoppaSnow
In KY that’s a pretty good forecast!
Sad, but true!
BPS
I do not mind the models. I do like looking at what is posted in the blog. That said, I have to admit that the flood of negative comments is taking a toll. Have read here less this winter than any previous winter. And it seems there is less useful information and useful discussions in the comments section than before.
I want to say thanks to Chris for his dedication and hard work. I really appreciate it.
Suppose to had been 42 degrees at 11am and it’s only 37. Looks like it’s running 5 degrees colder in Middlesboro.
It is 46 here in Richmond. I just jogged 3 miles in full winter cloths and fell like I have jogged during early summer.
I probably should have taken my wooly hat off.
Mine was related to head gear as well! I have removable ear muffs on my helmet… turned my cranium into a pressure cooker this morning! Sweat pouring down my face… I’m certain that more than a few motorists were disturbed by the sight! 😉
My commute to the office (bicycle) was a scorcher… I was entirely over dressed.
It just hit 38 degrees. So it was actually 4 degrees colder than predicted in Middlesboro.
Here’s my opinion for what it is worth:
I’ve been involved in public service one way or another for the last twenty years (military and civilian law enforcement combined). When I need sound, researched, intelligence driven advice, I turn to the subject matter expert. I then use that advice, combined with my personal/professional experience to make the best decision that I can.
As much as everyone on our blog (myself included) wants to have the correct solution with reference to whatever topic is being discussed on this weather blog, the reality begs that there are only a few individuals posting here that actually have educated and experience backed information. Truth is, the weather is going to be as unpredictable as weather is. CB has a proven reputation because most often, he gets closer than anybody else in the field regionally… that having been said;
Listen to CB’s weather-wisdom, relax, cheer up, stuff the negativity and enjoy the event for what it is… unpredictable!
Sounds good to me!
Ease up Francis
Dont really know how it happening but some type of rain , sleet , n snow mix coming down in downtown louisville
Now up to 49 in Lawrenceburg and I’ve got the feeling it is going to be in the 50’s soon. Hard to believe the high is going to be in the single digits tomorrow! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 40+ degree drop in highs from one day to the next.
Was it forecasted to be that high today?
Nope. Looking like we will hit fifty or higher. This is probably in correlation with the more northerly track of the system. The warm air is like a pillar supporting the southern side of the path.
Yes, I know that is too simplistic.
Could this make a difference on how cold it is going to get? Unless the roads get nasty many children will have to walk to school tomorrow morning.
If you are someone that enjoys growing marginally cold hardy plants be aware that this sub-zero event is not going to give the same results as a calm wind sub zero night followed by temps warming up into the single digits or teens (like we have been having the last decade or two during the coldest weather). This will be an advection freeze type event with sub zero temps and strong winds. Any heat radation from buildings will be kept away from your plants and they will likely suffer much more damage than we have been accustomed to.
The rampant use of Cherry Laurels, southern magnolias (cold hardy types like Brackens Brown should be ok), and crepe myrtles will stand out like a sore thumb this spring. 20 years ago we never planted huge amounts of these species like we do now, it should be interesting.
What time does the next models come out? Thank you.
People do NOT listen to what Chris says, 🙁 SNOW is NOT THE MAIN THREAT of this storm, it is THE COLD! THAT IS THE THREAT, ISSUE, CONCERN! Sad that people get so hung up on ONE thing and ONE thing only. We will be lucky to get any accumulation. What we do get the wind will blow around. This isn’t going to be a picture post card SNOW EVENT!
Okay, please don’t go outside naked just after you get out of the shower. Also, don’t strap Granny (in her rocker, of course) to the top of your SUV & please, please, please, don’t tie any 1 day old kittens to flimsy tree branches in the backyard.
BPS
That’s fine but I’d say most on here are SNOW fans. The GFS and other models were showing good snows for a lot of KY just 48 hours ago. Chris showed a lot of those models. Lots are now disappointed and rightly so.
I agree, I want snow too, but I think Chris is just trying to protect people.
WWA just reissued for the Louisville and Lexington areas… reflects later event start time for the Lexington area and extends end times for both…
It’s 53 degrees here! Approaching 60 in some areas, we may get those thunderstorms yet!
BPS
The forecasted temp for the Packer’s game is up 10 degrees from yesterday to a balmy -3 now.
Packers fans being awesome in the face of weather, as usual…
http://www.packers.com/media-center/photo-gallery/Packers-fans-shovel-snow-from-Lambeau-Field/0b1cbe0e-496b-4b33-be85-70f5b34add81
I’m sure if we had a similar situation, we’d be able to pull that off for Commonwealth Stadium, right? 😉
I believe less than an inch for Somerset area. We don’t get the benefit of the snow squalls as much here as those to our east. Cold is the big story, but snow as USUAL is a big no show.
10.7 degree drop in the last hour here in Richmond. currently 39.7.