Good Monday everyone and thanks for joining us. Showers and thunderstorms pushed into western parts of the state Sunday afternoon and the focus today will be across the eastern half. Heavy rains will be rather common with today’s storms and this action will be mainly during the first half of the day.
We will then turn our attention toward a powerful cold front that will blow through here later in the day Tuesday. This front will lead to a squall line of showers and storms and some of these could be strong or severe. More on that in a bit.
Here are your rain tracking radars…
Once again… the focus of the rain today will be across the eastern half of the state. I realize there will likely be a “jump zone” from the sunday rains and the stuff today. If you are in that zone… mother nature just does not like you very much. Something else to watch for will be the storms across the south this morning robbing some of the moisture streaming northward. If that happens… mother nature doesn’t like any of us.
Winds will continue to be gusty today and will really crank up as we head into Tuesday as our cold front pushes closer closer to us. A powerhouse low pressure will be working across the plains into the upper midwest over the next few days and will aid in our gusty winds. That low will bring some big snows to parts of the western half of the country. Sorry snow lovers… I just had to throw that in there. For us… a line of thunderstorms will be approaching from the west Tuesday afternoon and evening and this line can produce severe weather with damaging winds being the main threat. The NAM continues to be impressive with the line…
The precipitation totals on the right are impressive and would certainly help us out. Again… those numbers will be lower if the southern storms rob some of our moisture today.
A few notes about the extended…
– Some very Chilly air will move in here for Thursday and Friday. Highs both days will likely stay in the 50s as we set ourselves up for the possible first real freeze of the season by Friday and Saturday mornings. Lows can dip into the upper 20s for a lot of areas. The GFS likes the Cold ideas…
– Saturday and Sunday will see milder temps returning with highs in the 60s.
– A weak system will pass just to our north Halloween Sunday and may get just close enough for some clouds or a late day shower.
– November will start out with another big storm across the plains working eastward toward the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley.
This should spread more wind and rain our way as it does so and will bring another chilly shot as it moves by.
– I will have a November forecast out later this week and I highly suspect it will include some of the white stuff.
Have a great Monday and I hope you get some rain… if not… mother nature just likes putting the smack down on you. Take care.
OMG
Can you believe how much rain just scathed Lex and surrounding?
I’ve got my money on a moderate risk for us tomorrow, read this and you’ll know why I say that.
FARTHER S IN THE OH/TN VLYS…PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER/STRONGER ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. HERE…THE SRN EDGE OF THE LINEAR MCS MAY BE
JOINED BY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AMIDST STRONG LLVL SRH. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND RISK.
Good morning Chris and everyone! Ahh, good hot coffee on a wet and cool morning.
Thanks for the update Chris!
I agree. A Moderate Risk zone is possible. Yet another storm that GFS showed as being a nasty one a WEEK ago is likely going to produce exactly what we thought…wind damage.
Mother nature does not like Woodford county.
Good morning Chris and everybody! Woke up to a sound we haven’t heard much of lately….rain! Apparently, we had some pretty good rain overnight as our little drainage ditch was running this morning. Mild tamps, though, so no complaints 😉
Looks like a wild day tomorrow for sure! Now my only problem with that is…long sleeves or short? I know how the rest of the week goes from there…Have a GREAT Monday (Tuesday Eve) everyone!
Hi MikeM!!!! I agree! A few sprinkles is all we ever get.
Mother Nature doesn’t like us either.
down here in southrn ky..it was a different story, heavy rains last night through early this morning but 1.09″ of rain in the rain gauge at the mesonet site here in knox county…:)…very much needed rain to say the least…the creeks are actually running full in some areas this morning..
a very different story here in the south…some very much needed rain here in southern ky. 1.09″ of rain in the gauge at the mesonet site here in knox co.!!!
the creeks are actually running full for the first time in along time…
Get ready for some power outages tomorrow, especially here in East. Ky.. 🙁
We recieved 0.09″ of rain in Nicholasville. It is horrible considering how much rain went by us but that is the most rain that has fallen here in a month to two months.
Jake
Thank you for the update, Chris. I am looking forward to November’s outlook. =)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_200_030s.gif
Check out where the nose of the jet streak sets up by 2PM tomorrow. I have a feeling that somebody closeby is going to get popped tomorrow. 45 mins away from seeing if SPC pulls the trigger on a Moderate…
just enough rain here to make the roads very slick not helping the drought situation at all 🙁
Less than 1/10th here in northern Jessamine County, sigh. Looking for a silver lining though; my horse cut her lower leg and the vet said to keep it dry while it heals… uh… no problem!
I only see that if that CAPE values trend a bit higher. shear is off the charts though. instabilty very marginal.
Almost 2 inches here this morning.
The stream near me has barely a trickle in it though, so we still need more rain.
Who cares about snow?
There is a Moderate Risk issued for us…finally! Time to charge the video camera.
Makes me wish I was back at WKU… be a heck of a day to go spotting.
For real. Ahh.. the original WKU Storm Team.. I’ll never forget going live on air when campus got destroyed in ’98. Good times.. very good times.
P.S. if anybody cares, my buddy who started the WKU Storm Team just took a job with WAVE-TV in Louisville. Good to see him again.
This is going to be one of those rare instances where I don’t think instability is going to play a huge role in the storm… the shear dynamics of this storm are going to drive it.
Agreed. I think that’s why the SPC issued a Moderate risk. This could be bad.
I completely agree!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well written write-up. Glad I’m able to locate a site with some knowledge plus a great writing style. You keep publishing and i will continue to keep browsing.