Good Friday morning to one and all a hearty welcome to the weekend that is just about to kick into high gear. We are starting out the weekend with the coldest temps of the young fall season as a rapid warm up waits in the wings. Believe it or not… we have a lot of weather to go through over the next few weeks as we get into a very active weather pattern that tries to lead into an early start to winter.

Temps this morning are likely to be in the low 30s across much of the state leading to a little frost on the pumpkins.  Some of the traditional cold spots should wake up to readings in the upper 20s. Add it all up and this means the growing season is pretty much history. Check out this morning’s low temps here…

Sunny skies will be with us for our Friday as temps warm into the low 60s east to low 70s west. The 70s out west will be surging in here over the weekend as warm temps take control of the weather again. This round of warmth will feel a lot different than the warm temps we have had over the past few months as humidity levels increase as our flow comes in from the southwest.

This moist flow will mean showers and some rumbles of thunder will be working in from west to east late Sunday into early next week. This setup should deliver some good rains to the region as a cold front stalls out across the area as low pressure works into the northern plains. As the front puts the brakes on… another powerhouse may develop near the Texas Panhandle and work toward the upper midwest and western lakes. This has a shot to bring another surge of showers and storms in here Thursday with heavy rains a possibility. That would especially be the case if the big trough digging in can pick up whatever is left of Tropical Storm Richard that should be wandering about the Gulf of Mexico by that time.

This might end up being a pretty windy storm that takes on a classic fall look with rain and storms ahead of it and a snowstorm behind it. That snowstorm would be across the plains states and upper midwest. The cold front would then slam through here late Thursday into early Friday with one heck of a chill down behind it. Look at the cold the European Model is advertising…

That would all be just in time for Halloween Weekend and if one wanted to take the model as is… it does show the threat for rain and snow showers all the way into the Appalachian Mountains. Take that with a grain of salt from a week away… but it does serve to bolster the case of what a change this front will bring to the eastern half of the country.

As with any transition pattern… the models will struggle so that should be fun to watch. (I’m looking at you GFS )

Have a great Friday and take care.