Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking in to see what in the world of weather we have to offer you. Winds are cranking up across the state today as a sharp cold front works through. This front won’t have any moisture to work and will only make for a scattered cloud or two. It will usher in the coldest temps of the young fall season for tonight and Friday morning as a hard frost appears to be in the works. Bigger changes are lurking for next week.
As we mentioned… winds today will be the big story. With a dry ground and wind gusts approaching 30mph or a bit higher… the threat for brush and forest fires will be fairly high so please abide by all burning laws.
Track the sustained winds here…
Highs today will range from the low 60s in the east to around 70 in the far west.
Winds will diminish overnight as we hang on to clear skies. This will set us up for a quick temperature drop that will see readings settle down into the lower 30s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. This means a hard frost is likely for much of this part of the state. Some of the traditional cold spots may see readings dipping into the upper 20s leading to a light freeze.
Friday will see more of the same with temps from the low and mid 60s east to lower 70s west as warmer air begins to fight back in from the southwest. This warm southwesterly wind flow will really kick in over the weekend and boost our temps well into the 70s into the first half of next week. This will also be a humid flow and will combine with a series of low pressures across the plains to give us a great shot at rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
This action will increase west to east later Sunday and really ramp up Sunday night through Tuesday.
The overall pattern for the next few weeks is one that should bring us some welcomed rains on more than one occasion. The GFS Ensembles average rainfall maps look great…
Again… that is the average of each individual run of the ensembles, so it is good to see the average numbers that high from this far out.
A big storm the extended models are trying to key on is for next Thursday and Friday. They all have it in some form or fashion and several show a good old fashioned fall storm with rain and storms ahead of it and snow and cold behind it. The GFS is one such model…
Hmmm… well that looks interesting and we will have to see how all that plays out. The European Model is quite impressed with this storm and the amount of cold air behind it. Here is a look at the 850mb temp departures…
The pattern from there looks to be one that features periodic cold shots into early November that can eventually grow into an early start of winter around here.
The blog continues to get lots of great fall pics and we want to keep showing some of them off.
Sondra sent us this great pic from Bernheim Forest near Clermont
Mike from Middlesboro sent us this great shot from the Cumberland Gap National Park at the Pinnacle Overlook…
Keep the great fall pictures coming and we will try to show them off here on the blog. We are especially fond of fall colors, Halloween displays or all things weather. Shoot me an email chrisbaileyweather@yahoo.com with your best pics.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Thanks Chris. I woke up to a chilly house this morning. BRRR! LOL
Thanks, Chris. Loving the fall pics! WE have some color here, but not like what you are posting. Sounds like we are going to need to get out the heavier shirts and stuff after med week. But that is alright. It will be nearing November 1st, and I would imagine that we should expect cooler temps by then.
Everyone get out and enjoy the day! Have a GREAT, and safe one, all!
has chris published winter outlook yet? If so, what date?
He usually puts it out after Christmas. Once he sees how things are shaping up. 🙂
Seriously though, I think he ought to put it out earlier this year… BEFORE meteorological Winter begins. I know this blog will blow UP when he posts his forecast.
I am excited about the chances for some good rains next week!
Haha! It really is amazing how much the blog picks up late fall through the winter.
he dont want to put it out yet, because its gonna be so depressing for winter weather lovers…:(….LOL!
yeah, here as well, BIG TEMP. differences this morning…we had a low of 37* (according to mesonet) and FROSTY AS WELL…while central and northernky. was in the 40’s and 50’s this morning…
Here is Joe Bastardi’s official winter forecast for the Nation that was released this morning on the Free site..
….IF YOU WANT WINTER WEATHER IN KY. WARNING!!! WARNING!!! WARNING !!!! (((DONT WATCH))) IT COULD CAUSE SEVERE SNOWSTORM WITHDRAWL SYMPTOMS!!,, ICE STORM SHIVERS!!,,FLURRY FRENZIES!!,, AND SLEET SICKNESS!!…
SO IF YOU WATCH, JUST REMEMBER! I WARNED YOU!!!….LOL….LOL….
http://www.accuweather.com/video/643077741001/accuweathercom-winter-forecast-for-2010-2011.asp
I’m thinkin about packin up and heading to Alaska for the winter, I hear its gonna be a doozie up there!!!…maybe Sarah Palin will let me stay the winter with her….:)….LOL….
You’ll be able to see Russia from her house.
Here’s what NOAA has to say…..
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html
Southwestern KY is seeing dewpoint temperatures around 20°F right now. This is just an incredibly DRY airmass. Extreme caution should be used outdoors for sure. Wow. That one station is showing 18°F right now.
Here’s another similar prediction to what some of you have shared..once again, looks like milder weather for us. We are in a dry and mild pattern and I think it takes us through winter like last year’s cooler/wetter summer took us through the winter.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2010-10-21-winter-outlook_N.htm?csp=hf
I thought he put it out around Thanksgiving last year?? Either way, I can’t wait!
near 40 hear along the ohio allready could be the first freeze of the season!!!
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