Good Wednesday afternoon gang. I promised to drop by with some thoughts on the extended forecast and that is why i’m here now. The long range call from a few weeks ago of a chilly and potentially wet pattern to take shape by the end of the month into November appears to have some legs.

First and foremost… we need to get some rain in here. The GFS Ensembles average for precipitation for the next few weeks offers a lot of hope. Here is the breakdown…

That is a sight for sore eyes and would go a long way toward helping out with the drought.

How about the temperatures? Many of the long range models agree we are going to get in on some pretty chilly shots starting by the end of next week into early November. Much of the first half of next week will be warm… but a powerful cold front will slam through here toward the end of the week with a big time chill down. You can see that very well here on the European Model 850mb temp departures…

Brrr!!

So there you have it… reason for optimism for some rain and a reason for cold weather lovers to rejoice. In fact… this pattern can very well lead to an earlier than normal start to winter and a lot of the years I am looking at as analogs to this one featured that.

Take care.