Good Wednesday everyone. The weather out there for the next few days will be a lot like what we saw Wednesday as we get very nice afternoons and chilly nighttime temps. As a matter of fact… the coldest temps of the young fall season should be with much of the state by Friday morning.
Sunny skies will be the rule around here today as high temps warm into the low and mid 60s east and upper 60s west. A reinforcing shot of chilly air will drop in for Thursday and Friday. This front wil be dry as a bone but will manage to kick off a bit of a breeze as it blows into town. High temps for behind this boundary will come down a few degrees from where we are today.
It is Friday morning that is likely to feature a hard frost and the chance at a freeze in some of the cold valleys as temps drop toward the freezing mark and maybe a few degrees below. Central and eastern Kentucky will see the coldest temps as the west should say several degrees warmer. You can see the GFS going toward the hard frost and valley freeze idea…
We will go from chilly to warm in a short time period as warm and humid air surges in here for the weekend. Highs will hit the 70s again from Saturday into early next week. A moist southwesterly wind flow will be setting up ahead of a big plains storm and will set us up for rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Sunday into the middle of next week. Much colder air will likely filter in before the end of the month and take us into early November.
I will have more on next week’s active pattern coming with an update later today so check back.
I leave you with a fall pic of Cumberland Falls sent to us by Avette…
Shoot me an email of your fall pics and I will try to show them off here on the blog. 
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
I really like the look of that negative tilt the main system takes on in the modeling when it blows through here Tuesday. We might get to see some fun weather around here that we desperately need. I hope it pans out as shown on the recent runs.
Joe Bastardi has his winter ideas out on his blog this morning…and he says that this winter will be opposite of last yr…cold/snowy north, and north western states, while ohio valley region and south and east will see a NADA WINTER!!!…:( . he says that NOV./DEC. will get winter off to an early start with a trough over the east, but will QUICKLY reverse for Jan.-Mar. to MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS for the southeast… so he thinks this winter will be what I would call a BORING WINTER to say the least, after Dec. I guess I better tell the wife to NOT but the summer cloths away this winter..BBQ IN JAN. ANYONE???…
http://www.accuweather.com/video/64448107001/sneak-peek-of-the-upcoming-winter-forecast.asp
BIGGEST POINTS LA NINA MEANS LA NADA JAN/FEB WHERE WINTERS WORST CURSED LAST YEAR. ALASKA , WESTERN CANADA, NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE WICKED JAN-MAR. BIG BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN I 70 AND I-80 GLOBAL TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO PRE EL NINO LEVELS BY SPRING MAJOR LACK OF NOREASTERS FOR MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES
While the winter may get off to a relatively quick start over the east, with November and December winding up near or below normal in much of the area east of the Mississippi and much of the west warmer than normal, there is only so much you can hold off the overwhelming La Nina we have going,. This will force a major trough to develop over the northwest part of north America and deepen
across much of the western and northern part of north America in the means for January and February. Such a pattern promotes warm, dry weather south of the main jet axis which means a non winter centered from the interior southwest to the mid atlantic states, for the most part, the same areas that go hammered, for the heart of the winter season. Temperatures will run 3-5 above normal over Texas for much of the winter season, 1-3 above normal over the mid atlantic and southeastern states as well as the interior southwest. Conversely temperatures as cold as 4 below normal will develop over the interior northwest into the northern plains. The battle in between will lead to above normal snow and ice over much of the nation north of I-70 below normal though south of the Mason Dixon line, Ohio river, and then to I-40.
This drought has been depressing, and now a wimpy winter. Sigh…
Ahhh..nothing like those infamous GFS 2 wks. away snowstorms!!…LOL…already showing up…
Nov. 2nd (rain to snow from west to east)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_324m.gif
Nov. 3rd.. (cold, with snowshowers)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_336m.gif
I guess we better hope we can get all we can in nov. and Dec. since spring is gonna start in January this yr…:(
Ok, I’m going to be the odd duck here and say I am pleased with the forecast of a wimpy winter! I sure wouldn’t mind a bit to have a Nov/Dec winter , then spring in January. January is when my winter blues hit anyways.
Looks like Florida weather will be perfect in January to make a trip to Disney.
this will be a la-nina driven winter, looking at his graphics for our region it’s not that bad. looks like others have seen the gfs idea of some snow soon.
Can someone post years that were La Nina winters?
I guess I’m going to be the odd man out. I’m calling major B.S. on the predicition of a NADA Winter for us. Have these nuts learned nothing? Did they even stay awake in met. school? Nature keeps a balance. Always. Look at the U.S. Drought Monitor. The entire southeast is dry as a bone. This will not continue. If anything, the drought is a good sign that it’ll be WET in coming months here.
Well, like I’ve said before, our be EL NINO years here in the past 10-15 years featured literally shorts in December kind of weather. So I don’t usually expect the same warmth and dry weather with LA NINA here, despite what the textbooks may indicate. Sometimes you have to go on experience, and not the chalk board. Look at 97-99 Winters and you’ll see what I mean. T-shirts leading up to Christmas and beyond with El Nino in full effect.
Thank you. I couldn’t agree more. If you remember correctly, the 2008 winter brought very wet conditions and severe weather outbreaks and a big snow storm. That was a La Nina winter. This La Nina is forecast to be stronger.
well I hope so, I’m not looking forward to a boring ole, NADA winter…bring on the snow!!!
I AM FROM WAYNE, WVA AND THANKS SO MUCH FOR WILDCAT FANS FOR LETTING ME ON THE BLOG TO SAY A FEW WORDS. THE HERD IS NOT DOING SO GREAT THIS YEAR SO I HAVE TO HAVE SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT BUT THEN AGAIN THE WEATHER OF LATE SURE IS NOT ANY THING TO TALK ABOUT. I COULD NOT HELP BUT READING SOME COMMENTS ABOUT THE WINTER FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT A RELATIVELY WARM WINTER DOES NOT MEAN AN ALL WARM WINTER AND NO COLD SHOTS. IT JUST MEANS THAT OVER A 3 MONTH PERIOD THAT IT WILL AVERAGE OUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT ALSO DOES NOT MEAN LESS SNOW, IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE BRUTAL COLD TO HAVE BIG SNOWS, USUALLY JUST THE OPPOSITE TO HAVE BIG SNOWS. USUALLY IN OUR AREA YOU TEND TO GET LESS SNOW WHEN IT IS COLDER AND MORE SNOW WHEN IT IS WARMER, RELATIVELY SPEAKING. SO I WOULD TAKE 30 TO 40 DEGREE TEMPS WITH A FOOT OF SNOW ANY DAY OVER 10 TO 20 DEGREES AND 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW. SO ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST JUST YET, AND AS FOR THE DROUGHT, WE MAY END UP GETTING A LOT OF WET SNOW STORMS TO GO ALONG WITH A FEW BIG RAIN STORMS AND THAT WOULD DEFINITELY REVERSE THE DROUGHT SO MUCH SO THAT WE COULD BE TALKING FLOODS NEXT SPRING. SO AS WXMAN SAID IN HIS OR HER COMMENT AT 2:58PM, NATURE KEEPS A BALANCE AND THINGS HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVEN IT SELF OUT IN THE WEATHER DEPT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME, BY THE WAY, I DO SUBSCRIBE TO ACCUWEATHER PRO BUT I THINK CHRIS BAILEY IS THE #1 FORECASTER FOR OUR AREA.
If nature keeps a balance, then explain the everlasting drought in southern CA, NV, and northern AZ. I’m not buy the NADA completely from JB, but folks, its is not going to be a typical cold winter around here.
O.K. Chris…we’ve stirred the Pot!!!…LOL…when are you gonna throw you winter forecast at us….:)
I think i will just wait until Chris gives us his winter forecast MJ not meaning anything bad about you.
chris has an afternoon update…:)
typical winter around hers isn’t that cold and not alot of snow so i’m all for it 😉
2007… severe drought here all Summer. Then in October, we began 10 consecutive months of above normal precip! This year… each month VERY wet. Then in August it’s like somebody flipped a switch and now we’ve been 3 months with no real rain. The balance kept by nature has always and will always be there. This will not be a dry Winter, and if it is….LOOK OUT because Spring is going to destroy this place.