Good Tuesday to one and all. A cold front swept across the state overnight bringing some chillier temps into the region. This front also touched off a few sprinkles and light showers for some. It may not be done producing rain just yet as a wave of low pressure will deliver some drops to a lot of people later today.
The overall weather pattern is looking to really crank up over the next few weeks and this means we are very likely to get in on some decent rains later this weekend into next week. The models are even suggesting the Pacific typhoon may not have much of an impact on my change to chill toward the end of the month into early November.
Let’s start with the weather today as some folks will get in on some showers. The front is slowing down across the Tennessee Valley today as a ripple of low pressure works eastward along the boundary. This will cause showers to break out across western Kentucky early today and this action will work eastward this afternoon into tonight. The showers can only get so far north and here is a map I put together on the rain odds…
Before the rains work east… temps today will be much cooler than we have been seeing in recent days. Thermometers will be down into the low and middle 40s to start the day and hit the 60s for highs. You can track today’s showers here…
Wednesday looks like a pretty good day with mainly sunny skies and highs in the 60s once again.
Another sharp cold front will swing in here early Thursday and will have another shot of chilly temps with it. The core of the cold will be across the Great Lakes into New England as we only get a glancing blow of chill. Still… this should knock the temps back down and give us another good frost threat by Friday morning. The European looks impressive with this cold shot…
Highs in the low 60s should be pretty common for Thursday and Friday. Again… there should be a pretty good frost threat by Friday morning with lows approaching the freezing mark in a lot of areas.
Warmer and more humid air will surge in by Saturday as a moist southwesterly wind flow kicks in. Some clouds and even a scattered shower would be possible later in the day. Low pressure will be developing across the plains states by later in the weekend and this will cause showers and thunderstorms to increase. This is likely to bring our most widespread rain event in a long, long time. Here is glimpse into what the GFS shows…
Looking a little farther down the road… the GFS has gone back to something we had talked about for a while here on the blog and that is a change to chill toward the end of the month that would carry us into early November. Seeing the typhoon in the Pacific heading due west usually does not bode well for anything more than transient shots of cold in the eastern part of the United States. That said… the indices we have been showing you in recent days were quite strong and may try to overpower the typhoon teleconnection. Here is the GFS…
October 28th
October 30th
Halloween
We shall see which how it all plays out… regardless of the amount of cold at the end of the month… the pattern is becoming very active and this should go a long way toward helping out the drought conditions across much of the state.
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Could someone elaborate more on how the typhoon would influence weather here? It was mentioned a couple of times here but I don’t quite understand how. 🙂 Thanks!
If the typhoon heads more toward the U.S., it causes a disruption in the flow and the jet may go a little more meridional. That, in turn, could cause some weather systems to crank up in the lower 48. If the typhoon heads due west away from us…no effect to us directly.
Did you see the 12Z GFS? During the last 10 days of the period, it shows 5 big storms affecting the Ohio Valley. I think at least what we can say at this point is that it’s true…our weather pattern is finally starting to show some signs of life. Things should really start mixing up soon.
I like the sound of that!
I have live in KY since Late 96…….I think this is the third drought I have experienced since living here….I definitely remember the one in 1999, but as odd as it seems, I don’t remember going this LONG with next to nothing happening weather wise. I could be wrong, but it has been 12 weeks
YES!!!!!!!!! Finally, we really need to rain.
yea this pattern has been terrible, but thank goodness its not taking up our winter :D!
Off topic, but here goes. Any bony in Lexington with Insight that has one of those “minibox” converters that emits a horrible high pitched tone? It’s driving me nuts. Anyone figured out how to fix this problem?
July 21 was the last date we had at least 1″ of rain in a day here in Lawrenceburg. THREE MONTHS without a day with 1″ of rainfall is a little bit ridiculous, even for Kentucky standards.