Good Tuesday to one and all. As crazy as it sounds… many areas may actually pick up some MUCH needed rainfall over the next few days. This will not be a deluge by any means… but we will take whatever we can get. The same system bringing the chance for rain to the state will also bring in some chilly temps for the end of the week into the start of the weekend. We will look into that chill and the prospects for the pattern to lock into a very chilly one that would carry us into November.

Weak low pressure is passing to our south today and will throw just enough moisture northward into the area to kick off a couple of showers or an isolated thunderstorm. The best chance for this action will be across the southern counties. It’s been a while… but you can track it all on regional radar…

High temps today will be cooler than the record setting highs of the past several days as clouds and those scattered showers help us out. Highs will generally run from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The weak low to our south will begin to swing northeastward into the Carolinas later Wednesday into early Thursday. This happens a strong cold front swings in from the west. The two of these will team up to give us a pretty good shot at showers and some embedded rumbles of thunder. If everything comes together just right… many areas can get in on some decent rain totals as shown here by the GFS…

Again… that is nothing earth shattering… but we can’t be choosy at this point.

Temps will come WAY down during this time and we even have the threat for some frost this coming weekend. Highs will be in the 70s for Wednesday and those numbers will come down toward the upper 50s and low 60s for Thursday and Friday. Winds will be cranking as well and this will add an extra chill to the air. A major storm will likely be battering the northeastern states later thursday into the start of the weekend. With this low setting up where it is… we will have to watch for a piece of energy diving in behind it from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic states. That would mean a shower or two could be noted Friday if that little system swings in.

It should be a very fast mover and leave us with clear skies by Friday night. Temps will take a tumble as winds die down and that combo could mean some frost as readings head into the 30s by Saturday morning. Sunday morning could feature similar readings. Sandwiched in between those chilly mornings will be a very nice Saturday with highs in the 60s and sunny skies.

Temps early next week will warm considerably with temps back into the 70s for a few days before we head back the other way by the end of the week with another system moving in here.

As you know… I have been advertising a change to cold by the end of October. This could very well be a change that lasts well into November bringing colder than normal temps and threatening to give us an early start to the upcoming winter. The indices I always look at to get a hint about what may be ahead are all saying one things. LOOK OUT BELOW!

I understand those charts mean nothing to most of you. I could tell you a little more about each one… but I then I would have to kill you. Regardless… when you see a +PNA, -NAO, -AO and -EPO… that is about as good of a signal as you can get for cold weather across the eastern half of the country. Low and behold… the models are going that way for the last week of October. The map below is from the GFS Ensembles for Monday, October 25th. The big map is the average of all the individual runs and has a heck of a cold signal in the east. The two smaller maps are the coldest of the individual runs and show what the pattern may be capable of producing…

The latest operational GFS is showing the cold as well during the same time…

October 25th

October 27th

I have to admit… this is a pretty wild setup for the end of the month into November and it is one that can lead to some early season fun and games.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.