Good Monday everyone and welcome to yet another hot day. Hot isn’t a word we often use to describe the weather in October… but it is certainly appropriate with temps near 90 in some areas. The “heat” has today and Tuesday left in this run before we get in on some big changed later this week that will bring us some scattered showers and some chilly temps. That may be just a preview of what is to come later in the month into November.

Record highs were set over the weekend in Louisville and Jackson and some more will be likely out there today. Highs around 90 will be with us again today across the western half of the state as the east hits the middle 80s. There will be one notable difference today to our sky compared to the past several… it will likely feature some high clouds. At this point… it’s all about baby steps toward getting something to fall from the sky.

That may actually happen before the week is over. A cold front will approach the region Tuesday and Wednesday and will bring and increase in clouds and moisture. This will lead to a scattered shower or two as temps start to come down each day. Highs will be back toward the low 80s Tuesday then dip into the 70s for Wednesday.

A stronger system will drop in Thursday and will bring a better threat for some rains in here. This system should really crank up across the Mid Atlantic States by Thursday night and Friday and will tug down some chilly air from Canada. Here is how the European Model sees it playing out…

The poor GFS is showing it’s normal bias of being too progressive with such systems in the eastern half of the country. It had the low… but has it way out in the Atlantic. I see the new run is just now catching on. The GFS Ensemble mean agrees with the European Model with the system…

Regardless… a storm like that shouldn’t have a big impact on bringing us higher rain chances for Friday. It will have an impact on bringing in chillier air southward into our part of the world. If you didn’t get frost earlier this month… Friday night has a good chance to bring the 30s back. High temps later this week will come way down with lower 60s looking good for Thursday and Friday. If we can get some clouds Friday… highs may be even cooler than that. This should also be a rather windy couple of days, too.

This chill will not be the one that stays around as we have to endure one more push of warm air late next weekend into early the next week before we get in on a pattern change to cold. For a week now… the blog has targeted the end of October for a pattern change that would lead to chilly… if not cold weather that would carry us into November. Could all this be the catalyst that leads us into the early start to winter I have been hinting about for a few months now? It’s possible and that’s something I will try to hone in on as we get a little closer.

If you’re a regular reader… we have talked a lot about the early season buildup of snowcover across the Northern Hemisphere and have alluded to some early cold building up in Canada. That early cold is forecast to increase in the coming days. Take a look at how expansive the Canadian cold really is on the European forecast for later this week…

When this pattern changes… that cold air has to go somewhere and this will likely turn into a “look out below” situation. By the way… La Nina winters, as this one will be, are famous for some pretty big cold air shots into the country.

There you have it… some talk of winter on a mid October day featuring record high temps. That should tell you something about what I “think” is going to happen as as we move toward November and December.

Have a great Monday and take care.