Good Friday everyone and welcome to the weekend and what is the last day of the real heat until next summer. Summer of 2010 decided to run overtime this year as the first full day of Fall Thursday featured temps well into the 90s with more records falling. We get one more day of heat before a MAJOR pattern change takes place that will lead to wetter and much cooler weather for the next few weeks.
Windy and hot weather will be with us today as readings again head toward the lower 90s. Winds will crank to around 30-35mph ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. We will need to keep an eye on the brush fire threat today as conditions are ripe for any flame to get out of control. Just be careful.
What about this front bringing some rain to the parched region we live in? An impressive line of showers and storms will be moving in from the west through the day. This line… wait for it…wait for it… will weaken out big time as it crosses the state. Thus… a broken line of showers and storms will be with us this evening into the overnight. Track the storms here…
Much cooler air moves in for the weekend as northerly winds set in. This will be a welcome relief from the recent heat wave. Saturday looks like a VERY nice day as highs generally stay in the 70s with partly sunny skies. Here is how the NAM sees the afternoon temps this weekend…
Temps Sunday will be dependant on the amount of clouds and rains moving in. A cut off low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will slowing work eastward across the Ohio Valley from Sunday through Tuesday. Low pressure at the surface will crank up across the southern Appalachians and track north ahead of the upper low. This will bring an increase in moisture leading to widespread showers and some thunderstorms. The best chance for seeing heavy rain totals will be across the east closer to the actual low. The models are spitting out some very impressive rain totals. Here is the GFS for Sunday through Tuesday…
Keep in mind that parts of southern Kentucky are actually running above normal in rain over the past month. That might be an area to watch for some local high water issues should the rain totals play out. Temps during this time will be very cool as highs in the 60s may be quite common.
If you are a regular blog reader… you know that for the past few weeks I have been highlighting the potential for a wild looking weather map at the end of September into the first week of October. The call here for a tropical system to come out of the caribbean into the Gulf then running up the east coast as a cold shot from Canada moving in behind it looks to have some serious legs now.
The models are all honed in on the end of next week into the following weekend for that scenario to play out. The European is WILD looking…
Wow! Taken as is… that model run would bring some more very heavy rains to much of the region as chilly air moves in that would take highs down into the low and mid 50s. It would also bring the first flakes of the season to parts of the Great Lakes. Again… that is IF everything worked out just like that run is saying. The European does have a lot of support from other models… though they vary on the track of the tropical system. Here is the GFS for Sunday, October 3rd…
A cold start to October could very well be in the cards for our part of the world! 
I will have updates through the weekend so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
Thanks Chris. Been reading, but every time I try to comment, I get moderated.
Looking forward to a nice weekend, and we will see what next week brings.
the longer it stays so warm the better the lake effect snows wil be for snowbelts as the water will stay warm and increase the water vs air temp difference, atleast that seems like a possible scenario to me
Sure will welcome the rain! Hope the line holds together.
Yeah, i saw that mentioned somewhere as well.
This is just what I figured would happen!! I leave for Myrtle Beach on Oct. 16 for my honeymoon and looks like it is not going to be pleasant weather! Oh well such is my life when it comes to getting the weather to cooperate with my plans..lol
I can’t bear to sit here and watch that line of storm fall apart. Don’t keep your hopes up folks.
It’s going to be yet another dry frontal passage today. Medium range GFS continues to show DRY AS A BONE conditions for us through mid-October…save for one shot of rain on Monday with that cut-off low. We better hope we get something good on Monday, or things are going to go into D3 or D4 drought.
Well, I can attest to the fact that the WEGS have started in downtown Lexington. The main stage is 1/2 block from my office. They are doing sound checks now and I can hardly hear myself think, much less talk on the phone. Gonna be an interesting three weeks.
So from heat to cold? Lol. I mainly just want some rain. You can tell a big cold front is moving through just because of the way the wind is blowing super fast. It made it hard to put out the Halloween stuff but I got it out. Lol.
Jake
I practically stay in moderation. 🙂
Heavy rain in Frankfort…very gusty winds as well….
woohoo, a little rain coming through.
I was looking at the CFS monthly maps. They are showing a dry October but a big precipitation pattern change come November and beyond, if I’m reading it right 😉
Hey Michael
If you get this before the new post, how much did we get? I feel asleep taking a nap at 230 this afternoon and woke up at 8pm
🙂
3/10″ at my house.
That was not so much of a dry frontal passage today. Hopefully we can get some more early next week. Not surprised to see the big cold spell from the Euro vaporize. Hard to buy into any model given the massive pattern change.