Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Super Bowl weekend is here and we have a potential snow maker working in by Sunday night. This has the chance to put down some accumulations across our part of the world. Details are still to be ironed out, but I THINK I’m getting a better handle on it.
The folks at the Weather Prediction Center even have a slight to moderate risk of 4″+ snows…
Think of that like you would with the severe weather potential from the Storm Prediction Center. Again… that’s what they are saying and not me. 😉
In looking over the latest data, I think the NAM and GFS are too flat with the wave of low pressure and will come farther north in time. The European and Canadian Models are showing that and we have the SREF doing the same with the amount of precipitation…
Here’s my first take on the areas with the highest odds of seeing some accumulating snow late Super Bowl Sunday into Sunday night…
Once the systems comes into better focus, we can actually get down to business on being more precise with who gets what and how much.
Take care.
I’ve seen the HPC come out with a high risk of 4+ then the 2 days later slight risk then nothing happened. It would be awesome to get 4+ but not buying. But i am buying the Broncos
Dude Andy you have got to be the most negative person on planet earth. Give it a rest already. You live in a place that gets like 10 inches of snow on avg a year, not Canada. We all know you haven’t seen any snow this year but please stop whining. I hope you aren’t so negative in other aspects of your life.
Josh, you need a nerve pill, come down and just breath 🙂
Call down *
Calm down* lol
More snow for Barb 🙂
BOO 🙁
That would be “breathe”, barb…
Keep on keepin on Andy. I feel your pain but not Josh’s.
I have to agree with Josh to some extent. You know if SE KY is mentioned Andy is right their with a negative comment. And he responds to most other posts about SE KY snow the same way. Even if he has already said it 2-3 (or more) other times in that particular comments section.
That stuff said Andy has the right to post. If you do not like it just avoid the posts with his name. And his posts may be more in the desire for snow than to be negative but he just comes off that way unintentionally.
And this provides me with some entertainment. I would love to see his area buried in 10-12 inches of snow. I am sure he would as well. My motivation though is to see what the comments are then. Will Andy downplay it with a negative comment like we were lucky and one storm does not bust a trend and the next one will be rain or be happy and brag about the huge white stuff with a positive comment.
One storm will never bust the trend….the trend is a 15 to 20 year trend with at least one big storm 4-6 – 6-8 inches every 3-5 years….Storms that org. from the south have a tendancy to move north/west at somepoint in time. Generally resulting in RAIN/SLEET/RAIN/ICE….Little or no snow. These systems are the ones that pruduce 1 and 2 ” rains that we all wish were snow. Sure we get our share of ankle biters from the clippers but a good phased storm that tracks through Tenn. and up the West side of the Apps. just doesn’t happen very often. When that happens a few times then the trend can be broken.
THINK RAIN!!!!
But the question is……..Why does it not happen as often as it used to? Is the southeast ridge something new in the last 20 years or so? Is that the reason?
cool beans!
Thanks Chris- I appreciate the way you explain your reasoning- interesting stuff….
Thanks for the update Chris. Looks like it could be another interesting week. I’m anxious to see how this system pans out. Looking forward to this evening’s update.
Nashville really needs a snowstorm! Places like Mobile, Atlanta and Birmingham are beating us.
Woo Hoo! Bring it! Thanks Chris. Hope it plays out that way. time will tell…..
Told you all February is going to age some people lol.
Most all of us are going to be very happy with at least one good snow. Most likely more than one.
Even though I live in Ncentral KY in the less chance zone I hope southeast ky gets buried in snow, atleast the northern KY snow belt braggers would miss out this time 🙂
That would be awesome indeed but hopefully you and everyone can get in on a big one before this winter ends. As a snow lover, I prefer to spread the wealth
Frankfort got about 4 inches last weekend so I won’t be greedy, hopefully the snow gods spread the love and all KY snow fans get their fill before winter says goodbye!
I don’t feel greedy either and won’t complain. We have some of the coolest looking small storms so far, the blowing and drifting snow, bitter cold. This winter so far seems like it’s taking FOREVER to go by………Not sure why. The past few years it felt like winter was over before you knew it.
Their are still 1-2 foot snow drifts in frankfort on the edges of the larger flat fields, haven’t seen those for a few years!
According to people on accuweather, both storms next week are gonna cut up through western ky and give us severe weather outbreaks
What? As in thunderstorms? That’s crazy. Interesting to see how that plays out.
Not so crazy, been a few years ago now we had a big tornado outbreak here in February if memory serves.
You lost me at “in”Accuweather lol
This
Although i am thankful that DirecTV has finally stood up to a network rumors are Accuweather is coming out with their own weather channel.
Yeah, me too. Most of their meteorologists are model huggers.
I like the approach Mr Bailey is taking. Models still in “waffle land” and subtle changes in our world can make the difference between all rain and 12″ of snow. Will likely be a nowcast for most of us anyway. Fun to watch!
Even the NWS is saying models are flopping and its to early for a specific precipitation type to be forecast, anyone who thinks this set in stone as Chris has stated is just gambling on past trends!
With 90% of the time going with the trend, I will certainly take that gamble.
Haha yeah I know accuweather isn’t very “reliable”! It’s just interesting to see all the different forecasts, just shows how we got the name fencetucky! I prefer Chris thoughts tho, very elaborate!
Thanks Chris.
Looks like as things get closer they are getting better for our chances. Wonder how snow on the ground effects temps for the next one if we actually get some. I know my area bottomed out lower than expected with the snow on the ground a few times and missed the high slightly as well.
Hey Chris, Thanks for all the updates. I do a lot of driving between Sandy Hook and Salyersville. It’s great to have a way to keep up with what might happen, weatherwise. Even though you can’t tell us for sure what will happen next week, I know something will. I do appreciate you!
Jeepers people, take it easy and avoid being too sensitive. Can’t we all just get a-low? 😉
Don’t wake Darth Bubba up from his hibernation in the Death Snow Star….. The Dark Side still looms.
Ha! You and your play on words 🙂
Some still seem to be missing the point about the expected Tuesday system. It is less than four days away and CB has not latched on yet as far as snow. CB has went out a week if a system he thinks has a shot of being a big deal for snow or ice. He has not yet, which suggests it is still likely a mix and rain event for most of Kentucky.
CB loves talking about snow too much to not be for an expected big snow system for Kentucky.
True, but we hadn’t even heard about the possibility of a Sunday until yesterday. I like the ones that sneak up on us.
He might be looking a Sunday potential before focusing on next week??
He has pointed out two and even three systems in a row, IF snow (or ice) was expected to be a main player.
CB loves him some snow, so is attracted like a moth to a flame (minus the getting burned part) if the system looks promising for snow. CB set a precedent for himself by going way out of his way to distance himself from snow with the expected Tuesday event.
Making any call for it, but particularity snow. It would be a major post discussion if a likely Kentucky big snow maker. Refuting other mets about the system and clarifying his own posts about it stood out as significant. JMO.
CB is about ready for spring i think
Correct! 🙂
Me too Chris. I have slipped painfully one time too many this winter and strained my artificial hip implant. Ouch!!!
We weren’t even talking about the possibility of a Sunday storm until 24 hrs. ago and now look. You never know when one might sneak up on us.
Not sure how much more we can take here in the tri-state area. Boyd and Greenup are out of water and not sure when it will be back. Kids out of school and business close due to water/weather. Spring could not come fast enough.
Go Hawks!
Where’s Rolo, Old Schooler might be headed his way 🙂
Rolo would by now have had two old schools and two busts, canceling it all out 😉 🙂 That is why he is cool 🙂
I am not seeing an old school happening for most of us this winter (except the usual suspects), but love the Rolo posts.
I laughed when Accuweather states the storms next week will all be lakes cutters. They should just concentrate on getting tomorrows forcast right.
accuweather is a joke as is the weather channel……this is the very 1st place i go to every day for my weather needs and i don’t even live in kentucky……..20 miles south of huntington, wva…….in wayne wva………..saw an episode on the today show earlier in the week where al roker was putting a plug in for the weather channel…..said there was another snow storm coming the middle of next week and it could possibly bring a foot of snow to some areas……i think everyone needs to start putting plugs in for chris bailey at kentucky weather center.com…….these 24 hour weather stations are for the birds….just simply not enough weather to keep a 24 hour weather channel going to where every one stays entertained……..the weather channel was doing decent until they started putting stuff like weather stories and storm stories on during prime time and then i lost all interest……cable companies should have a channel set up just for blogging land to discuss the weather……..just saying.
I agree with you. I cannot watch the local news stations for weather and I live in Greenup Kentucky. CB is the bet one to watch.
Toney is correct about TWC, a joke as far a serious weather source, Jim Cantore seems like a nice person but that channel focuses on the big cities and leaves everyone else out!
@Toney, I had to do a double take to make sure that I hadn’t written this! You take the words right out of my mouth. I feel the same way. I don’t live in KY either; but a lot of my co-workers do. I live in Richmond, VA. Sometimes it seems as if what happens in KY is what’s gonna happen to us in the next 24 hours. I love CB’s blogs. He keeps you informed without using a lot of Scientific lingo (the NAO, & other terms like that). We finally had 2 snow events (ankle biters) but I’m satisfied. This has seem like a long winter. Oh well I too am over TWC. Every time I look they have some storm story on. The only time I like to look at TWC is when there is a hurrican or Tropical Storm brewing in the Atlantic. Thanks Chris for giving us real weather talk; because you have REAL folks who respect you.
I love Waynesboro 🙂 We always stay there when going to Williamsburg. Holiday Inn Express since 1998 🙂
Whole family does. Sentimental sweetness.
Let it snow!!! Snow is so much better than ice. Thank you for all your hard work, Chris!
Whether we get snow or rain its gonna effect us…either we dig out or row out….Chris thanks for brains…everybody is picking each others today. Can u say anymore about later in the week?
Mid week system is pretty much history..Just keeps going going gone..The way it keeps going NW wouldn’t surprise me if we even see rain..Hope I’m wrong but it ain’t looking good..
The “Bread & Milk Alert” still remains low for the Super Bowl snow.
More like a snack cracker alert 😉 Tuesday is probably a full-on umbrella alert.
I would like to see a good accumulating snow out of this storm, but if it doesn’t happen, I am still happy with this winter so far. All I wanted was to see one snow that was at least 4 inches and lasted for a couple of days, and I got it, so whatever happens will be a bonus as far as I am concerned. Thanks Chris for keeping us informed.
Whatever happens on Sunday, I’m loving the forecast highs for tomorrow! A nice Saturday for hiking! Then let it snow!
Any truth to the thought that our best snows come unpredicted until the last couple of days?
Most if not all of the huge snowstorms in KY in the last 30 years have not been predicted, the March 1993 storm was kinda predicted but that one overachieved most forecast by a long shot!
I teach. This winter it hasn’t been easy to accomplish the job for which I am paid. School has been in session only 6 days in January. Some in the district want to lengthen the school day (by 30 minutes) to make up for lost time. We’ve already “lost” Spring Break, extended the calendar, and converted previously scheduled professional days to instructional days. Our school calendar now extends into early June. I don’t want to miss any more. It’s not because of the loss of summer “vacation” time either. Curriculum requirements dictate what we are to teach, when it is to be taught, and to gauge student comprehension (mandated testing). I love snow… but I hope every flake that falls the remainder of this winter falls on a Friday night with 33 degree lows and 60 sunny degree for the following 6 days. We can even get some 10″ snows… so long as my perfect weather follows. Better go finish my lesson plans. Oh, wait, I haven’t used one since January 16th. Fingers are crossed that Monday morning is that magical “First Day of School” …again…….
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2014/01/31/the-great-facebook-blizzard/
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BfUqozvCcAETl1L.png:large
Snow dome?!? hahahe even though I live in KY, I find this funny.
Todd Howell from WBIR Knoxville is talking about the “now infamous” Euro model that was posted here a few days ago….. “he said by a met that we will not name”. He’s cooling the hype and explaining to the “weather uneducated” that these models are nothing more than “possibilities”, just as Chris has told us and most of us that frequent here already know. Apparently this particular run of the Euro has made it around the web far and wide. Also saying there could be a significant hit for SE Kentucky. BTW, he didn’t imply that any met said the map was a forecast but was just a random model of a possibility.
This link names names! 🙂
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2014/01/31/the-great-facebook-blizzard/
Test
The NWS Louisville has stamped their weather forecast in stone saying nothing but flurries Sunday Night and all rain Tuesday/ Wedensday.
the arrogance of these folks deserve a major bust! Please snow gods put these folks in their place!
They are phoning it in and banking on the trend more than the models 😉 I guess that is a joke.
Why would KU be chainsawing trees on Tates Creek Rd.in Lexington in the dark at 7:00 on a Friday? I do not like the most reasonable explanation.
Umm I hope it’s not a 3 letter word…
ICE ICE Baby???
Just arrived in Indy and first thing I see in the news is how they are calling for heavy snow tues/ wed. Showed the map and it has all rain for all Kentucky. Ice for central In. No snow for Ky next week. It is getting reedy to snow up here tonight. They have WWA out for all of Indy.