Good Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day. Today will feature another snow maker rolling across the bluegrass state and that means some travel troubles. I’m going to give you a breakdown of how the day looks to play out and will have a final call for snow around noon. Your friendly weatherdude has a migraine, so I hope this makes sense.
Here’s the breakdown…
– A fast moving low pressure will zip in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. This looks to take a track right along the Tennessee border.
– Precipitation looks to arrive in the west by late morning and early afternoon… early to mid afternoon in central Ky and by evening in the east.
– Temps will likely be above freezing as the precipitation moves in and could spike up pretty good in the south. Readings will then come crashing down as the snow and rain moves in.
– A band of heavy snow is likely to develop along the Interstate 64 corridor and north by late afternoon into the evening. This could cause all kinds of travel troubles… especially during the evening. It’s this area that is likely to pick up a general 2″-5″ wet snowfall. Any deviation of that track of the low will impact exactly where this zone sets up.
– Snowfall totals will drop off the farther south you live as rain cuts into the action. That said… some backlash snows around the departing low could spice up totals a bit across southeastern Kentucky.
Enough gibberish, let’s get to some early day tracking tools…
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
I-75 at MP 36 London
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville
I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
Final call for snowfall comes out around noon. Take care.
I am fluent in gibberish so no problem 🙂 Thanks CB for all the work you do for us weather geeks
Chris. Years ago (1968-69 when the station was on New Circle Road) John Mcgarvey and I did weekend news, weather and sports. We were both students at UK..WKYT has always been meaningful in my life as I retired a few years ago after some 50 years in radio and tv…Chris, you do a marvelous job for not only the tv station but for all of us around central and eastern Kentucky and I salute you for that. I wonder if you would consider this small suggestion. When you put your forecast, charts, radar e.t.c. on your blog, would you please put the time your information was posted e.g. Instead of saying this morning or evening, give us how old your information is on the screen? I hope I have made my point….Again, terrific work! Thanks, Henry G. Lackey
I and a few others here speak Jive if any translation is needed… 😛 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0j2dVuhr6s
Thanks for the update Chris. I hope the migraine goes away soon. I have had them and I know how bad they are. Try to get some rest.
Looks like Jackson has upped the snowfall totals to the 2-4 inch range for SEKY.
HPC map for snowfalls risk of 4+ inches.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
32 degrees in Frankfort. Seems to be warmer than expected.
So since the nws forecasted less than an inch with the last event and we fot 4 and now they are forecasting 2-4 do we get 8-16? 😉
Hey! You wanted it. Complain when you get it. Complain when you don’t. What is up with that.
Just messing with you! Hope you get your dusting of rain today.
Nobody complaining just poking fun at nws go have some coffee 🙂
I knew that. Sipping it right now. Jefferson county public schools are cancelled today. No where to go.
Louisville sitting at 34 degrees forecast low was between 26-29 depending on who you listen to last night. I was really skeptical last night about surface temperatures not falling quickly at all. Temps might fall a couple of degrees more before sunrise but in general temps are 4-5 degrees warmer than anticipated. To me this seems like a more of a rain or wintery mix scenario eventually changing to snow. Sunshine through late morning in my opinion will boost temps into the lower 40’s before the cloud deck gets into Ky. Evaporational cooling I get that but when temps hit the low 40’s and i think temps will with sunshine i have a hard time believing this system will drop 2-5 inches of snow. Surface temperatures are going to bust alot of forecast, models have been horrible as of late with surface temperatures. Louisville schools closed for today that is a risky move on a storm that is getting more attention than deserved in my opinion.
Better to be safe, than sorry
Let’s hope you’re right. Warm up enough for mid 40s and end up being all rain will be fine with me 🙂
I will have to respectfully disagree this time.
Temps are currently 31 in Louisville and lower in surrounding areas. I don’t see temps spiking into the low 40’s here.
Also, the cloud cover is already moving in. So, the sun isn’t going to do much melting today.
I can still see NWS upgrading to WSW along I-64 and points north.
c-Biv your killing me lol I respect your theory Im just going out on a limb on this one just strictly due to surface temps gut feeling says 40-42 degrees we make it to before precip arrives. I think there will be snow Im just not buying 2-4, 2-5 inches. 1-2 seems more feasible I think there will be some rain cutting down on totals there is a really good possiblity we will stall temp wise at that 33-36 temp range as the snow falls which will also cut down on totals.
Thanks for the update CB. Hopefully your snowfall map mirrors what you put out last night. Suppose to travel to St. Louis for Volleyball tournament over the weekend. Staying home to move snow. So we better get it.
Should be close. Seems there will not be many areas that do not have some cut down due to rain. Take CBs map and apply the mid to max levels for 64 & north-ish. Start lowering down big time the more south you go. In other words: Same as it ever was 😉
Is this forecasting, or history casting? 😉 Gotta have some fun if not much snow for a lot of us 🙂
Wow, I’m surprised Jackson is saying 1-3 inches for Monticello tonight! Not sure if I should do a happy dance or just hide in the closet & prepare for disappointment again.
Meh. As expected. At least the usual suspects will get snow along with their copious amounts of salt. We will mainly get copious amounts of salt.
And they wonder why they’re running out of salt.
Yeah, if they don’t spread it we get mad and when they do spread it we get mad….they can’t win.
Lows of only 31-32 for Fayette and Madison last night. You mentioned the possibility of warmer air interfering with the snow system yesterday or the one before. If the warm air does result in dampening the snow totals, you are due credit this dynamic of the event wasn’t mentioned in the postings at all. In fact, the possibility of over-achieving was mentioned instead. If it does not, well that just means more snow and that’s a win anyway.
Why do you think that people forecast against a trend when it continues to win against them so often? Better to give the upper hypothetical total to allow appropriate preparedness (much like severe weather watches)?
I am not sure why result trends for similar set ups are not weighed in more, but easier when armchair QBing 😉
Heh. While true, something so easily seen by any outsider would then be easily explained by an insider.
Speaking of ‘Armchairs’, imagine this blog if everyone treated weather like a UK Sports call-in show?
Well BubbaG we always get copious amounts of rain. At least that washes away most of the salt.
True 🙂
Bring it on!!
I live in East Kentucky (Lawrence). We were expected to receive a half inch to an inch and we received, in my area, 6+ inches. Now the stations in Huntington are giving about the same amounts that CB is giving. The forecast goes like this: 2-4 locally higher amounts in some areas and another station is giving 3-6 inches along the I-64 corridor north and south about 40 miles on each side. Plus my temp outside is 20 degrees with at least 5 inches after a little melting. I think Chris is right on!!!
Not sure if this means anything at all, but the current radar returns looks like this systems is going to move more North than expected. Indiana/North Ky will see the higher amouts with all of Ky seeing lower totals. Hopefully I am wrong a we all get the 2-4 forecast.
We are sitting just fine for you to plow 🙂
You are also seeing the cold air patten which makes that stand out more. In spite of the cold air and extremes this winter, warm air remained a common snow foe. Just imagine if the warm airwas less of one. 1978 part II.
25 here in Topmost of Knott County. NWS in Jackson has us getting 2-4 by Saturday morning and Accuweather has 3-6. I think we will see alot of upslope snow after the changeover from rain tonight into the day tomorrow.
Accuweather has Louisville getting 4-8 inches of snow today and another 3-6 inches tonight and thats not at all going to happen.
CB mentioned backlash snow chances for the SE.
Sorry u r feeling bad Chris. Get some rest. 🙂
Accuweather forecasting 4-8 inches for Olive Hill today and tonight. Lol Still have snow/ ice on the ground which my help hold temps down.. Wondering if we will see any rain at all or just snow.. Time will tell..
Sunny and 30 in Lawrenceburg. Will be interesting to see how warm it gets today.
I live in se Floyd co near pike co line and still have over 7 inches of snow in my driveway. I now see accuweather is giving us 3-6 more tonight and in the morning. It looks as if quite a bit will melt today cuz all weather stations r giving us rain changing to snow tonight. Oh well. Either way won’t hurt my feelings
Thanks Chris. Hope you migraine gets better. Clear and now sunny in the tropical part of Kentucky, aka Somerset and Pulaski County. 😉
While Chris is speaking of snow and possibly some good snow for most of the state, we here in southern KY are once again looking for rain and possibly a little snow at the end. Oh well, that is just the way our luck runs, I guess. Everyone be safe out there today and have a GREAT Friday. Happy Valentine’s Day to all you weather lovers out there, and to everyone’s favorite weather man, Chris Bailey.
Somerset is under a winter weather advisory with 1-2 inches of snow tonight
I like the radar returns Right now from a Louisville perspective
Whatever happens, everybody be safe! Does not take much snow for roads to get dangerous real quick.
Roads dont get dangerous only drivers
36 degrees in Louisville with filtered sunshine like i said its not going to take much to get to that 40-42 degree mark.
Good to see we have a decent shot at accumulating snow this time as the last storm was such a non-event for most of the state.
HAPPY VALENTINE’S DAY to everyone, especially to our favorite weatherman CHRIS BAILEY !!!! Hope that you can get rid of your migraine and take your wife out for this special day, if not, then I know that she will understand:)! If there was a vote for snow or rain, I vote for rain. Am tired of this winter! Everyone stay safe!!!!!
Amazing how long the snow has stayed on the ground in the central and northern portion of the state. We had totals in Knox that at least came close to matching what you had on the ground and outside of the shade or low sun areas a lot of our snow melted in less than 24 hours (except at Willies 🙂 . ) I will be glad to see all of ours gone and hopefully the roads will dry and I will be able to wash a couple of vehicles. I”m really curious to see what color they are considering both of them are solid white as of right now.
Yes there is still lot of snow left in town.
Right around 40 already here in Carrie of knott county
Current RAP model shows 1-2″ for Louisville. Things can change. That’s why we call it nowcasting. Some local mets really jacking up totals.
NWS Jackson says 2-4 inches for most (except far SE) due to an earlier than expected changover to snow. We shall see. Either way, so glad that tomorrow is Saturday. Don’t want to miss another day of school due to a small snow.
That’s what I told my co-worker at least we will not have to roll out and go to work in the a.m.
37 in Stanford already. Cold rain, cold rain, cold rain.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the snow belt along the Ohio River. 3-5 inches. Sigh.
The long gap from a CB update tells me things might not exactly be on the upside for a lot of us. If it were, CB would be chugging Redbulls and tweeting every 30 minutes 😉
Or he’s trying to sleep off that migraine knowing another snow event is on the way.
Hasn’t tweeted in nine hours..he is asleep. He would have tweeted about the WSW if he was awake
I took it as a joke, but if he has a migraine, the gap is understood 100%. Stay away from the Redbulls!
I fear that you’re correct Bubba, but I’ll console myself with the idea that Chris is still fighting that migraine and that’s keeping him out of touch for the time being.
hope you feel better Chris.
Fayette County dismissing early…feels really warm out right now.
Mid 30’s…clouds increasing.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Scott County until tomorrow morning at 4am….our schools are releasing early…is the snow coming in faster than expected?
Sun is hanging out a long time ahead of this snow chance, the clouds need to show up to stop the warm up, probably a rain snow mix for a while in frankfort area, might hurt totals??
No, it should rain for a couple hours. But the snow will come down heavy like it did on Sunday Night. Precip in Mizzou looks strong.
Dodger says get the shovels ready along the Ohio River!! Dodger!
Roger that, Roger 😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW2F2DrTu6w
Sunshine and 38 here at New Circle and Winchester roads. It better get cold quick if we are going to get that much snow!
Not warming up as quickly as I hoped in Southern Pike County, maybe the snow pack is going to have a say in how warm things get, still have 10+ inches and now about 2 inches of snow packed ice.
I guess I’m wondering how this event is supposed to last as long as it is supposed to? Because that precip is hauling…….
No surprise here, but the NAM and GFS are doing battle again. NAM is saying an inch or less for most of Kentucky not near the Ohio River, but the GFS is showing some decent accumulations for most of the state.
NWS Jackson saying 2-4 but I have doubts.
Meant to say for knox co.
Some impressive totals from across the southeast and northeast with the previous storm (click here).
Looks like parts of South Carolina got first place in a contest nobody wants to win….the most ice at 1.25 inches. Also inch of ice totals in parts of Louisiana and Georgia. It wouldn’t be surprising if KY and TN power companies are helping those Deep South folks get power back. Many Deep South companies helped KY and TN during our ice events in 1994, 2003, 2009. Good to return the favor.
Congrats to snow lovers in southeastern KY finally got a good event, even if it may had been a bit too much of a good thing. Hope those affected get your power back soon.
This should be interesting ……here in Grayson (town) the temperature is currently 41 and it’s beautiful outside. The wind is starting to pick up so maybe temps will fall. Whatever happens be it rain or snow or both, it’s Kentucky and it’s still winter, and I’ve lived here long enough to know…anything CAN happen.
Any of that stuff hitting the ground yet?
I’ll be so glad when these warm temps get here
agree
NWS Louisville concerned about models showing a jet streak aloft. This could create warmer than expected readings just south of the Low track while enhancing snow totals just north of the Low track. This is definitely an hour by hour forecast from here on out.
aas stated last evening, going be to warm for ALOT OF PRECIP from LEX south. sorry but nothing see here unless ur on OHIO RIVER.
Here is a forecast: no snow, rain for Richmond!
Temps well into 40s here with clear blue skies,could a 50 pop up in Carrie kentucky
I’m thinking in my area we might just get a cold rain. That would just be par for the course around here anyways. This winter all the good snows went about 50 miles north of us.
NWS has lowered Lexington totals to just 2 inches.
NWS now saying less than an inch for Laurel. Lots of rain for this Valentine’s Evening.
Please forgive my rant…but someone at the Jackson office should get their head out of their rear ends!! Chris has stated from the get go…as well as other mets to not expect anything for the Wayne County, Lake Cumberland Area. This morning the Monticello forecast was for 1-3 inches tonight…now the updated forecast is less than half inch!!!! This isn’t the first time this has happened this winter either, I know everyone is human & makes mistakes but my goodness to be as consistantly off base for my area as they have been this winter is crazy. If I were this inconsistant on my job, i would be forced to look for another.
This storm is tracking much further north, look at the radar, most of the snow is well north into Indiana, Illinois!
Big dry slot west of Louisville also!
This storm has all the usual suspects playing against it, NWest shift, dry slots, warm air aloft need I say more!
Actually looks pretty dead on to what GFS and NAM show. Should really explode once it starts crossing the Ohio. There is going to be a lot of snow falling this evening along I-64.
NWS just upped storm totals to 4-6 here in kenton county
Laying it on the line, heh…
twitter.com/WXinKY/status/434369569386295296