Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. The weather for the past week has been as quiet as it can possibly get and your friendly weatherdude is getting bored. Mother Nature is about to change that as our pattern gets much more active this week. We take a look at that and show a model intent on some very early season fun and games.

Clouds will continue to increase across the state today as low pressure works northward out of Florida. This was basically a tropical storm a few days ago and what’s left of it will work into the Carolinas by early Wednesday.

Showers will increase across the eastern half of the state later today into tonight. Some of these showers will put down some heavy rains at times. The farther west you go… the lower the shower chance. Areas along and west of Interstate 75 in central Ky may not see very much. Follow the showers here…





Temps today will be cooler than the past several. Highs will range from the low and mid 60s east to the upper 70s west. Wednesday will continue to see the east much cooler than the west as some leftover clouds and showers hang on.

The next system will quickly work in from the west into Thursday. This will bring widespread showers in here with some hanging tough into Thursday night. Winds will gust up with temps in the 60s for highs.

Windy and cool/chilly air will then filter in for Friday into Saturday. Highs in the eastern half of the state will range from the high 50s to low 60s with 60s west. There is still the threat of a shower on Friday in the north and east.

A warmer wind will then blow on Sunday as highs return to the low 70s in the west with upper 60s east under a mainly sunny sky.

That brings us to early next week and a pattern the models are trying to figure out. Several models have been bringing a significant trough into the east by Tuesday and Wednesday. Some have backed off this idea of late. Recent runs of the GFS have been very similar in taking on an almost winter look…





Those were back to back runs of the model on Monday and it has been showing something similar, at times, for a few days.

While climatology strongly argues against that happening… it may be a case of the model saying what the pattern is capable of as we head into mid and late fall. Several of my analog years say that has some validity to it.

Regardless… the return of a -NAO and -AO is being forecast by the models toward the second half of the month…



That could cause things to become interesting as we roll into November.

I told you the boring weather will soon become a thing of the past. Have a great Tuesday and take care.