Good Wednesday afternoon, gang. We have a heck of a setup on the way this weekend into next week and it’s one that can deliver a lot of nasty to the bluegrass state. It’s also a system that can unleash a major arctic outbreak into our region and for much of the country.
We have a system to track before the possible storm. This one brings a shot of snow our way late Friday into early Saturday. That may change to a period of light rain later Saturday just ahead of an arctic boundary sliding in. This boundary should slip southward through the state as low pressure develops to our southwest.
That low would then ride northeastward along the front late Sunday into Monday. Where that tracks will mean the difference between snow, ice or rain. As of now…. a swath of snow and ice looks to be more and more of a threat around here. This has been detailed well in recent runs of the European and Canadian Models.
The GFS has now come around to this possibility…
Don’t look at that and automatically assume snow. That is showing the areas of greatest concern for snow, sleet and freezing rain.
The same run of the GFS decided to bring record breaking cold in here by the middle of next week…
I am only showing you these maps to highlight the potential this pattern has from late weekend into next week. It’s one that can certainly change and I hope it does.
I will have more on this coming up later today on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.
First?
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If I had a dollar for every time I heard that forecast.
MikeM your not buying CB’s thinking? Seems to be spot on to me.
CB’s thinking is snow, sleet or freezing rain. Given those options the probability of what will happen is about 100% the latter.
It was not a forecast, but the potential. We do not want this one. It would be mainly ice for Kentucky and perhaps topping of snow to cover the grief.
Rain again the theme of winter around these parts 🙂
Just watched some Louisville mets at noon today, they are not buying what the models are selling, most are saying mid 40s with rain and maybe a little mix as it ends Monday!
Let the games begin!
WHAS is the only station going with the warmer solution wave wlky wdrb are going with CB’s thinking as of now.
So 3 out of the 4 stations are buying into what the models are saying.
Lets hope for our sake WHAS is correct this time, ICE might hammer KY this time if the models are correct?
Yea, GFS specifically has 13 BELOW ZERO in Lexington after the snow and the Euro has near 10 BELOW ZERO (in the last run, current run is 5 below) All models have been trending colder and colder and all mets have jumped on board with a possible major winter storm. My confidence is decreasing with each run of just plain rain in central and southern ky, I really do not want an ice storm…
The state record cold for March is -14 in Bonnieville on March 6, 1960.
Just imagine, if, and that’s IF we get a decent snow pack of at least a few inches or so, all time March records could be set across numerous locations across the state. The arctic blast following that is set in stone now (its been on the ECMWF and GFS for a day now). How cold we’ll get is determined by the snow pack (if any) we get.
thanks Chris!
a long winter for sure and I’m happy to have another shot at some SNOW!
that warm weather last week certainly was nice though…
Always 5 days away. We will see but the trend is not in favor. Sitting at 30 here if clouds break on up I say we go above freezing in knott co today
same here in London … sitting at 30, according to cb wasn’t suppose to get out of the 20s … if sun stays, we’ll hit 35 today;
Thanks Chris. Will be watching your posts and thoughts on this one for sure. Stay warm everyone and have a great Wednesday afternoon.
Gotta remember most places will hit the lower to possible middle 40’s by saturday that’s fools gold. That’s before the front arrives knocks temps down then precip moves in and there lies the potential problem for Sunday night and Monday.
let’s see….15″ of snow or 1.5″ of ice? I will take #1 please.
Even if that is a split mix, you are looking at possibly 7″ of snow and 3/4″ of ice?!
Either way, Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be a solid mess across much of the state. There will be many schools adding another snow day to the list, and not just Monday, as arctic air rushes in behind the wintery slop.
This has been an active winter, to say the least.
BJenks, get the salt ready.
Never underestimate the power of the NWest shift in this part of the world, it has a proven track record of bringing warmer air than forecast north into KY, especially when their strong storms!
Todd totally different set-up with this storm
Just looked at the 12z GFS its just one run but that was just a incredible nasty ugly ice storm event unfolding for pretty much the entire commonwealth. Let’s hope that just one run and not a trend that would be very very ugly. I cant recall the last time I saw a run like that with that much ice.
when all four computer models are trending over the same area 4 days out and the WPC places that low into Tennessee, this should at least get our attention.
Yes, this could all change still. But, wow, this would be a March storm to go down in the record books, with that much moisture falling in the form of ice/sleet/snow.
Agreed.
The lastest run of the GFS had the I-64 corridor getting 1.5 inches of freezing rain and sleet. It will change ( it better change) I even had to do a double take on that particular run.
I know!! Not good…that’s why I said earlier give me 15″ of snow over 1.5″ of ice!
Sounds like some March model madness is coming to the blog the next few days 🙂
Forecast for the Lake Cumberland Area keeps us pushing 60 degrees at one point this weekend with plenty of rain to keep us company. Everybody else can have the snow 🙂
Dont count on that and I’ll leave it at that
rain is the only thing we can count on around this area
This storm is a different setup from what we often see with the north trend in the last 24 hours before storms hit. However, I would still bet on it being warmer than what the models are saying. I hope I’m wrong.
Warmer means we have to be at 35+ or we are in serious weather trouble…
WOW….I have to travel to Indy this weekend for a Volleyball tournament. NWS out of Indy Forecast is for possible ICE STORM Saturday through Sunday. If not Ice it will be heavy snow. Should get very interesting to say the least.
C-Biv…Have the salt…Just not sure if it will be needed. Looks to me a heavy rain event for 90% of the state. Going to be interesting to track to say the least.
90% heavy rain for most of the state? You talking Ky or Tennessee thats way off, 90% freezing rain as it stands right now and 10% sleet. lol
Hoping for 100% Snow, but we all know that isn’t going to happen. You have my thoughts on this. Not budging!!! The trend will win!!!
I never saidsnowstorm but unfortunately ice storm
I know you did not say anything about snow. I was just stating what I was hoping for and that is 100 percent snow. Lol
Im heading to Indy myself wee hours of Wednesday morning im hoping to get a good look of a 8-12 inch snowfall up there at least. Knowing my luck it will be all freezing rain that far north lol
you are hyping something up that don’t need to be right now – too far out. if it comes in Saturday, then yes look out, but not 4/5 days out
wasn’t referring to you at all, but nice attitude about it … I was replying to Prelude who is definitely hyping this situation way too early.
My bad.
Really Jim Jones??? How am I hyping please explain giving a opinion on what might occur. I said I believe a significant ice event will occur for parts of KY. I also stated models will flip flop on every run but as it looks as of NOW a icing event looks likely. Subject to change like the weather so please keep your hype comments to yourself ok thanks bye bye now.
I guess talking about a possible storm is hyping it. 🙂 I bet Jim’s not a fan of the Weather Channel lol
Jim Jones acts like Im scrolling a major ice storm will occur on every major network for Sunday/Monday, sorry Im not. All I was doing was discussing is all giving a opinion I guess he didnt like my opinion. Oh well what can you do? lol
We understand Prelude. It’s all kicks and giggles right now. I like this blog because everyone here gives their own forecasts and with humor sometimes. Until about 2 days out, the model are for entertainment purposes only. I’ll have maple syrup with my model Waffles.
I bet you’re a blast at parties
referring to Jim Jones….
He’s not drinking the Kool Aid
The established Models Are presenting.
I’ll bet the younger folk on here has not a clue what that really means LOL 🙂
Referring to the drinking the kool-aid LOL
It’s not funny what happened but I just made the Jim Jones and Kool-Aid connection. I like my Kool-Aid without cyanide 🙂
At least I use my real name on here and don’t hide behind fake ones.
Jim i said hoping not hyping big difference
I agree, people are falling for these model runs 4 days out, rain has been the most common precip type this winter when big storms approach from the southwest, I’m with Bubba G on this one if ice is a possibility bring on the rain please!
Heavy snow for them could mean ice for about half of Kentucky. Not wishing ice on anyone, but is they were ice most of Kentucky would probably be mainly rain.
Local forecasters in WV have us with 55 degree weather for Saturday and 52 Sunday. Makes since to me, all the big snowmakers this Winter have moved along just north of the Ohio River. I don’t see this one being any different. Most likely another 35 degree heavy rain event followed by the dreaded wrap around flurries.
Taking my daughter to a gymnastics meet in Columbus, OH on Sunday afternoon. Even if we miss out on the worst of the stuff here in KY I’m afraid we’ll be in the middle of it in Ohio. Not a good situation for a mom and daughter out on the road. Any hope the storm won’t arrive until late on Sunday evening?
NWS in Indianapolis even thinks ICE is a possibly that far north, if they get Ice KY gets rain end of story!
Agree!,!
I prefer this scenario, but think for now there is a 30% chance for us to get significant ice.
Me thinks the GFS is a little crazy on the temps for next week..Looking at the map above it’s showing northern Missouri 28 below..Probably because of snow pack..Ha i laugh at you GFS..Silly model..
A model reader, I’m not. But looking at the GFS, it looks like NKY/Cincy area could get ice pellets/sleet. (Precip type said PL, so I looked it up) Again, it is 4 days out and quite a bit can change.
Can anyone guide me to the map legend for one above that Chris posted that showed areas of greatest concern? I think it was the first one.
I’d like to know where you’re finding the latest Euro model on the web. Thanks.
We’ve went above freezing here in knott co, snow is gone even in shade.
Hoping for a RAINY weekend in Laurel County. Our options here this winter seem to be rain, rain, a touch of ice or snow while neighbors get inches, and more rain. Thus, when ice is involved, we’ll take the rain. 🙂
I would say Western Ky is in the cross hairs at the moment for some ugly with lighter amounts as you go east..As always though won’t know until Sunday if it be rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain or all mixed in together..Gone are the days when you could start tracking a system 4-5 days out..Silly models..
It’s a shame this has been the coldest winter since 1978 and here in Louisville we cannot receive a snowfall more than 5 inches.
it kind of makes you think how hard it is to go” old school”.
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-and-ice-coming-to-midwest/2430839568001?channel=top_story
I will be all too happy to get the usual heavy rain and keep my power on here in southern Kentucky this go around. You folks from I-64 north can keep the ice there….and any snow for that matter as well. 😉
The high temps across the Louisville/Lexington metro were 26 at Frankfort, 27 at Lexington, and 28 at Louisville. All 20+ degrees below normal South of that region, temps hit the 30-32 degree range, still 20+ degrees below normal. The normal high in Bowling Green, for instance, is about 5 degrees higher than it is in Lexington right now. The temp spread should be predictable.
I think that area of low pressure is gonna fly in from the west dale jr and then turn up the ohio river dukes of hazard leaving us with rain and dissapointment.
This forecast has me scared
So nobody has been talking about the 12z Euro. Well, the new Euro has went significantly warmer for Lex with temps pushing into mid 50s and ending as backside snow. For Louisville, half snow, more snow the more west you go along the I-64 corridor. The arctic air that follows is only showing single digits in central ky and below zero across northern ky including Louisville. Latest GFS has a weaker system, with less snow, warmer temps (but not by much than last run) more sleet, and less freezing rain (good.)