Good Thursday, everyone. We’re getting set to close out a very cold and snowy February across the bluegrass state. It seems rather appropriate we do it with a very cold day and the chance for some snow. That kicks off a weekend that is likely to feature a bigger winter weather maker to end it.
Today is sunny and cold. That’s pretty much all we can say about it.
Friday starts even colder with the potential for temps to reach the single digits across the north. The Hi-Res NAM is showing this well…
Throw in some wind and you could have feel like numbers dropping toward 0 or below for some areas. Sounds about right for the final day of the month. Later in the day, temps will warm toward the balmy low and mid 30s. Clouds will increase and we may end see a band of snow lifting in from southwest to northeast late in the evening through the overnight…
That looks to be on the nose of some slightly milder air shooting in for Saturday. I’ve seen these bands bring a decent burst of snow, so we will watch for that.
Saturday looks kinda dreary with a lot of clouds and some rain and snow showers. Temps may spike into the 40s.
This brings us to the storm potential for Sunday and Monday. Frequent visitors to the blog will know this has been talked about for well over a week. Now that the models are latching onto it, you are hearing more and more about it from all the weather circles.
We are still 4 days away from this system moving in and that means we have some time to nail down the specifics. We are likely to see a major temperature gradient setting up across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys on Sunday. That will be courtesy of a front that puts the brakes on as low pressure develops along it and lifts to the northeast.
Exactly where that boundary sets up will be the determining factor to what type of precipitation you get outside your house. The pattern suggests the state sees some nasty weather in the form of snow, ice and rain. How much of each isn’t known at this point, but the potential is there for a significant winter storm in our region.
Here’s what the GFS is seeing for precipitation types…
That will change many times as the model gets a better handle on how this storm evolves. For the record… I am rooting hard for rain to win out. Not only am I done with winter, but I have a 4 day weekend that I don’t want to give up. 🙂 #teamrain
I will update things later today. Take care.
You mean we are gonna have a huge weather event and your gonna be gone 4 days and not be here to keep us up dated,LOL . How will we get by.
I am rooting for rain also. If not, then just snow. Thanks for the update Chris.
Is it really time to do this again? I smell trouble brewing….
If current maps hold together for late weekend, all I see are more school make-up days in June. Count me in on the “rain train!”
…. and my daffodils are starting to make their appearance!
Rain can cause makeup days as well
Elvis said it best….Kentucky Rain….Ky has a way of breaking these systems down. We are the Mason-Dixon Line of the weather world. LOL
One question. On that Monday afternoon map the entire state is pink. One little blip of red (sleet). Is that over Andy Rose’s house.
I went back and looked at the records for all the winters since 1980 (the 3 last winters of the 70’s were some of the coldest and snowiest on records). This winter has been cold-but we’ve seen far worse, even in recent years.
Coldest winters since 1980:
#1: 2010 (30.7)
#2: 2003 (31.2)
#3: 2011 (31.5)
#4: 1982 (32.0)
#5: 2001 (32.0)
This year: 32.4
Snowiest winters since 1980: (Trough 2/28)
#1: 2011 (27.4)
#2: 1994 (26.7)
#3: 1985 (25.8)
#4: 2010 (23.7)
#5: 1996 (23.1)
This year: 19.3
So this winter
There you go again Mercer, bringing all of you factual info and trying to derail the hype train. 😉 Keep it up.
There is no hype train. To me it has felt a lot colder than all the winters I have spent since moving to KY 13 years ago. Small sample size, yes but I go by what I feel.
Good info. I wonder how January alone stacked up with those winters–as far as the cold is concerned.
How does this winter rank comparing coldest days and not just overall?
It just seems we have had some much colder air at times around here this winter. I know many are complaining about their electric bills because of the heating. We have used more fuel this winter than we have in a long time as well. And I just do not remember any of these 0 and sub-0 days. I know that here we have missed the most school we have missed in a long time and had, at least here, more snow than most recent year. Not to mention the snow has really held for longer periods this year.
Exactly! I think when people say this is one of the coldest winters we have in years we aren’t talking about the average temperature of every day in winter. I think if you went back and compared the number of days spent in the single digits we’ve definitely seen more this year than we have in many. If the average temp in 2010 was 30 degrees but it never dropped below 10 degrees (not saying that’s the case, just giving an example) then this winter still feels a LOT colder even though the average is higher.
I’ve lived in Lexington all my life and this is definitely the coldest winter I can remember in years. 2010 wasn’t that cold.
It is right with those winters (or above) on cold days–we have had a number of mild days to balance that out. Since Dec 1 (beginning of met winter) we’ve had 10 days of 60+ and 2 days of 70+.
I will take the rain or snow any day over the ice and sleet!!
This one is going to be very trick as far as temps go. I think we will see a lot of flopping once the NAM gets a hold of this one.
I made a side by side (Precip/Temps) animation (GFS) on my blog from SUN eve -MON eve if anyone wants to check that out. The 540 line is pretty much stationary for the majority of the storm.
22 in Carrie knott co this morning, think models are over kill on the cold air a tad
You must live on top of a hill. I’m one county over from you and it was 15 at my house. The mesonet sites are in the mid teens as well.
Closest mesonet to me is showing 24
I’m referring to the lows.. not the current..
Mesonet closest to me said 19when I woke up at 600 my thermometer had 22. Just posting my data.
Also for a day that was suppose to top out in 20s it’s already 30 but I digress
Actually it is supposed to be in the 30s today here in southeast ky. CB’s 20s forecast is geared towards central and northern ky..
LOL at “#teamrain
Here’s to rain and you getting a much needed mini break! 😉
As usual for southern ky a cold rain… Lol. Thanks Chris. Everyone have a great Thursday!
I don’t like how close Laurel County is to the ice. Let’s warm that up a bit, Chris.
ah don’t worry, by the time Sunday gets here, London will be warm enough for that rain; plus on Monday by the time it get’s below freezing the rain will be gone from here. Enjoy Fri and weekend, temps in 50’s and 60 on Sunday
Rain, rain…snow away,
Come again a December day.
Chris, you might as well get ready to give up that weekend, because we are going to get hammered. I just hope the freezing rain totals stay less than 1/2 in. or we are in trouble in central KY.
Thankfully, frozen precip looks to be a non-issue here. Wondering how much rain will fall in the usual suspect areas.
could be another 3 inches like last Thursday maybe?
😛 I have creek property, so rain is just as bad, if not worse, for us. We’re at the headwaters of Stoner Creek.
And that’s a nickname there, nothing more 😀
Chris, I hope you get your long weekend. You deserve it. We all have relied on your forecast for months. You remind me of my retired job. Alot of over time hours at home without pay. Enjoy!!!!
So if this map holds, is Lexington in store for a repeat of 2003?
The NWest shift is happening, the models have shifted further north, cold rain to a backside mix or flurries in KY.
Indiana, Ohio will get most of the snow and ice out this weekend storm!
Actually not at all. GFS is colder and farther southeast
Are you looking 6z GFS? Looks colder to me. Certainly no NW “trend”
Todd, with all do respect what model or models are you looking at?
All but the GFS so far, anything can happen, but the most likely trend is a cold rain changing to some light mix on Monday!
Well it is not funny but in a way it is we have SWS about wildfire risk today even though we are talking more cold, possible snow and ice this weekend! Crazy ky weather indeed!