Good Friday, folks. We’re wrapping up the month of February on a cold and rather calm note. March is supposed to be the month when spring starts to appear, but someone forgot to tell that to Old Man Winter. A developing winter storm takes aim at the region later Sunday and Monday and we are now in Winter Storm Threat mode.
Let’s talk briefly about the weather before we get to the storm.
Highs today will make a run at 40 in many areas with low 40s in the south. I can’t rule out some light rain and light snow overnight as warmer air gets set to move in for Saturday. That milder air will push temps toward 50 by the afternoon. Get out and soak it up, because the hammer falls later Sunday.
Sunday may find quite the temperature contrast setting up from northwest to southeast. This is where we find a cold front settling southward as low pressure develops along it. Here’s where I think the low goes…
Any deviation in the track of that low will have a big impact on the precipitation type around here. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will all be likely across the state. The best chance for significant ice and snow accumulations will be Sunday night and Monday.
Here’s my latest threat map…
I moved those lines farther south since my initial map Thursday afternoon. I will keep tweaking the threat map through the day and have updates as needed.
Keep checking back for the latest on this potentially nasty storm. Again… I’m all in on #teamrain! 😉
Enjoy the day and take care.
Is there a chance that line could move further south?
My guess is no, I see the Low pressure system trying to follow the Ohio River.
The low pressure system will be nowhere near the Ohio River lol…
More like east Tennessee. That’s just a few hundred miles off.
I think louisville and southern indiana is gonna get pounded with this!
Come on Chris, you can’t be a snow lover all year and then wimp out on what may be quite a storm just bc it is March. Remember, superstorm ’93 was on March 13th. And none of us who experienced it would give back those memories. I haven’t seen more than 3 inches of snow on the ground here at one time in Huntington, WV this year and haven’t seen more than 6 inches since the 90s. I for one hope the models for this one put us right in the center of the target and get it right this time.
These forecasts are certainly prone to change, like anything else this far out, but WPC just issued their new products and placed most of Western and Central Kentucky in a high risk of seeing >.25″ of ice.
Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
That’s not something to take lightly, and you rarely see the red zone used from them for anything unless it’s a serious (or in other words, a very real) threat.
The thing is though that there are too many different forecasts. I think there should be a rule where no one can see the models except meteorologists. If they see a storm a week out on the models they can’t tell us. Have to wait until the day before it strikes to give us the details. The way it is now most of them look like a bunch of idiots just guessing and changing their forecasts every 10 minutes. I give you credit Chris for not flip flopping with every model run. You call it like you see it. When you’ve been wrong you have acknowledged it unlike some others. I do enjoy the blog even if you are a UK fan.
First off Montrezl is a freaking beast. Go Cards!
The models have not really waffled at all. Most if not all the mets here in the Louisville area have been saying that there is a potential for a winter storm with ice being the main threat for us and rain further south.
After being awakened at 2:30 in the morning to the sound of rushing water all around your house, I’ll take the winter stuff any day. Go team ice and snow.
That NW shift so far hasnt happen in fact more of the SE shift has been occurring. It will be interesting to see what models do today and tomorrow. As of now significant wintery weather issues look to occur Sunday night and Monday for many.
Can’t agree with you more. There have been know waffles with the models over the past three days. Seems the main threat for the heaviest precip has been from central Indiana down to and a little south of the Ohio River. I still think this come in as a 90% rain event for Ky with the river being the fence. The shift NW will occur and the track will be more through Ky than Tenn. Not going against that trend that has been for the past 15-20 years on these types of storms. IF I am wrong that would be great, I am not ready for winter to be over. THINK RAIN!!
14 here in knott co this morning, I still stand firm seky be all rain.
Any word on possible accumulation totals yet?
Micah mentioned 2-4 for the high risk area
For anyone interested….the NW shift has become the SE shift.
00z NAM- http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
06z NAM- http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=LVX
06Z Nam looks a mess; looks like it is having feedback issues.
The hallmark of a forewarn of ice potential. Let us hope warm air cuts into this one.
Yea, this ice could get ugly.
I actually think I-64 and points north have a chance to get a lot of sleet, which would be a good thing.
No doubt a very complex system thanks to the March players.
Maybe, but the 00z GEM looks very similar.
The nam goes bam curse has been put on this one.
Double smackdown. Cats free throws and instead of snow, a more likely smack of ice. Two current staples for the state. Boo!
Even if we all get stuck with rain and ice I think there’s a good chance for Northern and Northeastern Ky to get a short period of “backlash” snow out of this once the cold air really gets in here.
With that being said, I’m ready for spring now…
Models trending warmer. Since last nights run, the GFS has shifted slightly northwest, but that make a huge difference for the ice potential in CKY, and shifts it further north. Models should be trending today, let’s see if the models start to correct themselves. (I’m pretty sure the icy stuff should stay along and north of Ohio river.)
Hm. If they are to “correct” themselves, then does that mean they were wrong all along? 😉 How does one know? 🙂
I would like to agree with you, however, my area of NE KY (Carter Co) is already under a WSW Sunday-Monday for snow/ice. I wouldn’t say that this event would’ve along and north of the river just yet because this storm seems like it will surprise a lot of people (even though I’d rather have rain than ice)!
Im not sure what model/models Israel is looking at the trend as of late by all models i can see is the colder solution and the SE track.
I stand corrected the 6z GFS did shift a little northward nothing huge but I get where Israel is saying. The Nam says differently and gives most of KY a nice thumping of winter weather. Hopefully this will be the last winter storm of the season!!!
Out of curiosity, which I’m curious about which GFS maps you and Israel are looking at? Looking at the GFS 4-day dominant precipitation type map I do see where it is trending slightly more towards rain for central KY over the last 3 runs but I’m curious if I’m looking at the same thing you are…
Looks like the 12z GFS changed its mind and is back to full-on ice mode for central KY.
Megan….A few storms back Lou. Area was forecast to get 3-5 inches of snow. Winter Storm Warning within a 24 hour period before the storm started we were down graded. It rained until the very end of the storm. Not even a deck duster….Still full three days out. Things will change.
Thanks Chris. Ladies and gentlemen take my advice. Pull down your pants and slide on the ice! (Sidney Freeman, MASH). As for southern ky, gonna be a rain event, as usual. Bring on spring!
At least with spring rain, it’s a warmer rain.
Agree with both your posts Coffeady.
but this won’t be spring rain it will be winter rain and that is about as miserable conditions as you can get
Winter rain is 33° rain, anything above 33° is spring rain.
I love it.I guess we will be slipping and sliding on the Rain which I will take over Ice if we can’t have snow.Andy Rose got your Umbrella ready?
Looks like a sleet fest for some area’s also..Wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 inches of sleet..
Tonight’s forecast DARK, becoming widely scattered light by morning.
Bailey u cant be a SNOW LUVER and get on here wanting rain.. don’t matter what month it is, im very disappointed in u.. I understand we don’t want ice.
THINK RAIN!!!! Reverse psychology????
as far as the storm goes, I see a futher south track.. which means the whole state in fur a nasty storm..
Not even a remote chance, Rolo.
he will change his tune he has already went a day or so without saying Old School
ROLO has spoken!!!!! NO STORM FOR YOU!!!!
Big storm moving in on the West coast. If this storm stays this large it will be pulling in tons of moisture from the Gulf of Mexicao
Not sure how to make it a link. But copy paste.
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/439214575628472320/photo/1/large
This is a simulated radar for 5 o’clock this evening.
Saved that image! Awesome looking storm!
Yes indeed!!!
Looks like the Nam is ready to Explode..
What time does the NAM come out and how often?
9:am every six hrs…It’s the Nam and looks like it did explode..lol..Now is it correct?
NAM has looked ugly for 3 straight runs now, and each run has gotten more intense with the precipitation shield.
Heavy sleet/FRz. Rain/ and snow all players. March madness is in full effect.
12 zNAM says sleet storm ice storm snow storm so pick your poison lol
You forgot plain rain as well 😉
With all this talk of the southeast trend funny how the NWS only has extreme northern KY with a winter storm watch, their not buying into to a southeast trend!
They get paid to be conservative.
Watches will be extended south of the river.
I disagree with bjenks on this storm. I see at least 50% of the state being impacted by winter weather. Not 10%.
This storm has a chance to be a whopper with all the extras.
NWS definitely buying into the storm no doubts there at all. The reason why no watches were issued this morning was the bulk of the precip will hit Sunday night Monday morning NWS will be watches and advisorys out later today or first thing tomorrow
Agreed Prelude…I fully expect them to issue Watches into Kentucky by tonight.
Another important point is that the NWS Louisville will be able to sample the data now as the storm system is moving ashore. Additional Watches forthcoming by later this afternoon as part of their fine-tuning forecast.
check out the 2 links …. look at the difference in Sun/Mon between London and Lexington — calling for major ice storm for Lex. Wal-Mart’s sales are about to catapult
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lexington-ky/40507/daily-weather-forecast/328978?day=3
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/london-ky/40741/daily-weather-forecast/17676_pc?day=3
Folks in Louisville accuweather says more snow than ice 4-8 inches.
It is going to be a real close call.
You could see an area getting heavy snow the whole way through and end up with 14″, and just 20 miles south someone gets nothing but sleet and ends up with 5″ of the granulated ice pellets. Then go another 20 miles south and see an 1″ of ice caked on everything!
Can someone post the 12z NAM map please. Thanks
I completely agree
This thing hasn’t completely made landfall yet, but it looks really impressive:
http://cincywx.tumblr.com/post/78110967949/im-going-over-the-data-now-this-storm-has-the
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-animated.gif
Quite impressive and beautiful!
Wsw here in ne ky
Glad I got some new work boots today gonna be soggy down here in knott co
Wagons South..I would guess a 100-150 shift from the GFS..
Its been a good long while since i seen a southward shift now im buying in. By now we usually have a NW shift on each model run it looks like as of now the southward shift is going to hold par.
I try really hard to read Chris’s blog and what the rest of you are saying but some of it I just can’t read. I am a nurse which means all this reading the NAM and other models is not my thing. What I want to know is where does the storm put me. I live in South Ashland KY! Don’t want to sound dumb but the lines CB has drawn goes straight thru where I live. I don’t know what that means. HELP!!!
Just by looking i would say Ashland will get hit pretty good..With what I’ll leave that up to the expert’s..Models continue to shift everything south so who knows by tomorrow we may be looking at sunny skies..Or they may waffle back north leaving us with rain..lol
NWS in Louisville has a conference call at 2pm with local media.
Wave3 Louisville weather chick says mostly rain Sunday for them?
Yes rain in the day changing to freezing rain after 6pm
The bulk of the precip will hit Sunday evening after 6pm precip changes over to freezing rain last through the night to midday monday.
12z NAM:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140228+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Just checked accuweather and there is a SWS for barbourville rain chaing over Sunday night and then snow. I hope if we get anything it is our usual rain or snow and not ice!
Hey CB the Joe B Hall Denny Crum show just showed you some love by mentioning you and the inclimate weather moving in to the Commonwealth for the weekend. Saying that the boys high school basketball tourney games might need to be postpone in Lexington