Good Saturday, everyone. As we enjoy a relatively mild day across Kentucky, the focus of the forecast is on a developing winter storm moving in for Sunday and Monday. The entire state has been under a Winter Storm Watch since Friday afternoon.
As you know, this was supposed to have been a 4 day weekend for your friendly weatherdude. I did manage to take my Friday part of it, but a late day round with a bug kicked me a round a bit. That pales in comparison to the headache that is pinpointing the winter storm details.
I’m still not ready to commit to any one scenario playing out with this storm. I do have some thoughts on how it may shake out…
– Sunday starts with a huge temperature contrast from northwest to southeast. It’s possible to see a difference of 30-40 degrees across the state as a front slides through.
– Light rain will be possible along and ahead of this front, but a quick change to the messy mix will be possible late in the day.
– The prime time for Freezing rain, Sleet and Snow is Sunday night into early Monday. How much of each falls where you live is still up in the air at this point. But, it could be enough to cause significant problems for many areas. I will have a better handle on all this later today.
– Winds will become very gusty as the cold air surges in. Gusts of 30mph will be possible as we get the nasty mix of precipitation.
– The cold takes control Sunday night with readings dropping into the low teens by Monday morning. Highs Monday may have a tough time breaking 20 degrees. Those same gusty winds will make it feel even colder.
– Single digit lows will be possible on Tuesday.
That outlook should make you really want to get out and enjoy today. Highs will hit the 50s on a gusty southwesterly wind. A shower or two will be possible and regional radar will help you through the day…
Take care.
Thanks for update. Hope you feel better soon.
Hope you feel better soon chris.
Try rest some today, Sunday night. Early Monday could get ugly for lot veiwing area.
WPC Day 2 Probability of >4″ of snow: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
and then for >8″ of snow:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif
and then for >.25″ of ice:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
Really looking forward to models getting a better handle with the balloon data later today, still a bit of a spread in solutions across them at the moment. Regardless though, everything seems to indicate a pretty big event.
Thanks Chris! Here we go again! I hope you feel better soon.
This winter has been so “busy”……….Hardly a break it seems
Yep. For most though, this event seems the usual fence, rather than Old School snow. Seems Old School is so long ago we need to start calling it, Really Old School 😉
Ice and sleet are probably going to stunt totals in the usual areas of said fence and then the cold air takes hold when the moisture is mainly gone. Hopefully CB feels better later, and posts a mainly snow event, but the setup for this has not looked like that so far. Sleet is preferred over ice, since the ice is going nowhere once the temps drop.
Some good news though could be the wind will dry roads some before the cold air can freeze roads.
Bad news is that whoever gets a significant ice accumulation the winds will really be a negative factor frozen trees powerlines and wind is never a good combo.
The last similar events we lucked out and the winds hit before the cold air set in.
According to mets it will be windy all day monday so thats a concern especially with ice depending on who stays freezing rain the longest that will just aggrevate the issue
well the NWS finally woke up and realized there was no chance that SE was going to get any winter precip from this LoL
Chris, you do an awesome job.
06z suite nudged north a bit. Less moisture too. On the GFS/NAM animation on my blog, you can see that the GFS keeps moisture around longer in EKY. There’s quite the difference in snow totals from this run between the GFS and NAM and that’s why.
Thanks for keeping it real Ryan
Take a vacation! We’ll survive. We get the message-winter sucks. Especially when you’re waiting for spring. You do so much; take a break!
Thanks for the update…..hope you feel better.
Thanks Chris for all you do. So so sorry that you aren’t feeling well. I can see why you burn the candle at both ends with no sleep. I know you do it to keep us informed and we love you for that. You have to take care of yourself. What would we do without our Weather Dude? Looking forward to your next post. I hope you get some rest before then!!!
Thanks Chris. Sorry you are feeling ‘under the weather. ‘ ( pardon the pun.) Hope you are feeling better soon. This thing had a lot of people scratching their heads, not unlike the UK MBB team. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Do I hope for snow in southern Ky? You bet I do. One last chance. Do I think it will? Probably not. But we will see. Everyone have a great Saturday and enjoy the warmth. Waiting to see your thoughts later today Chris. GO CATS!!
Latest WPC has I-64 and points north in the Moderate risk for >4″ of snow and in the slight risk for >8″ of snow.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow
Whatever happens, at least we got an Old School prophecy reminder to start the Rolocoaster one more time 🙂
Timing is everything with this, but i64 north still seems the best chance for significant snow. We have the luxury of armchair quarterbacking and leaning on the trend. Mets do not have that luxury and have to deal with forecasting this moving target.
FWIW, the national mets on TV had Kentucky with at least several inches and north central KY and on east with 9″. FWIW.
Haha on the rolocoaster….
Which national MET’s on TV Bubba?
18, 27
B.G. at wave 3 reported to his audience that the low will reach land sometime this afternoon.
According to him the evening models should begin to tell the story.
Personally I like our chances in Louisville.
This beats a tornado threat anyday.
Local mets so far are saying the main frozen stuff is ice and sleet Sunday and then a little snow Monday to end it.
Shades of 2009.
Bite your tongue on 2009 Bubba…that was an awful mess.
I was thinking more 2004 if this turns freaky on us. Icing to a dusting turned into 22 inches for Lou. back then.
Strike that. I meant 1994!!! Not 2004…
Wasn’t it more like 10″ of snow, 5″ of sleet, and 1″ of ice?
I got stranded on I-65 heading North on Christmas Eve. That was the most stress on the road I’ve ever endured in my life. It was worse, because I had my 4 year old son with me.
We ended up sleeping in a hotel parking lot in Columbus until the next morning.
I was stranded in Shelbyville in hotel parking lot, scared to death, everywhere you looked cars were flipped over. Very bad night!
Kentucky Trends….The fence…..90% raind for Ky. Northern Tier counties and North of the Ohio River will get the Frozen Pricep.
Wrong this time around…less and less chance of it being just rain for 90% of Kentucky.
You better get ready to make some money. Head over to NE Louisville first, ok? We usually get more than anyone else 🙂
That is very true. I will be in Indy until tomorrow evening. Hopefully I can make it back as it could be very bad up that way.
Yes, be careful heading home.
Yea, I just checked the latest water vapor image, and that thing is still spinning in the pacific.
That jet stream is going to slingshot it to us, I guess.
thanks Chris.
looks like a good day to get out and ahead of some yard & garden work, grill some steaks and root on the Cats – hope they’ll find their way.
storm wise – que sera sera and be safe everyone.
The forecast for my area on Sunday is for Heavy Snow. 2-4 inches….
I will be leaving for Indianapolis in about two hours. Won’t be returning until Sunday Evening. I will see about pulling the cold front down with me on the way back to town. Will be real interesting to say the least.
Winter Storm Watch dropped for southern KY. Playing out just as I said it would yesterday for here. Still a good chance for something significant for northern Laurel,Pulaski to points north.
Would of thought they would at least waited for the 12z or 18z runs..
Same here…I’m surprised Wave just put out a snowfall map, too. I thought they would wait until 12z data rolled in with all the waffling going on.
March 22, 1968, Louisville won 12 inches of snow. That would be nice to see again.
There was a tornado outbreak in this region about a month later (took out my Dad’s house), indicating the overall pattern back then was amped up big time.
Curious…what makes a lot of you think this won’t do what most of the Lows have done…trend north? If its still off shore, and the models have no idea whats going on…what are the variables you look at that are different with this set up?
Dodger says the waffles are nice and fluffy with plenty of butter and warm syrup to go around! Dodger!
The NWS forecast for Lexington is strange.
During the entire event, it says less than 1/2 of snow and sleet accumulation both Sunday night and Monday…..Doesn’t mention freezing rain……..if that’s what they are forecasting, why have a WSW at all?
You know, the longer this storm spins in the pacific, the more our times of impact will be pushed back.
This could be a game changer, too. If this all starts at night instead of late afternoon/early evening, the types of precip will also be affected.
18 & 0z runs will b crucial for snow chances.
Past winters I would have gone for a Warmer solution. But this winter has been A little different.
Newest nam snowfall…
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057
Keep the good data Coming.
Odd looking map…the split of hardly anything in southern. Ill and central Indiana. Hmmm….
It’s all about Kentucky.
It’s our time.
Ice is looking like a main player though, so the only time I want is Miller time 🙂
Looks like the Nam pushed the second wave more south into Ky..I guess that would mean more snow/ice/sleet or rain along the Ohio river..3rd wave looks like a decent hit for most of ky..All these multiple waves makes your head spin..Just an armchair observation..Could be totally wrong..
I know right? Your killing me Smalls!!
This storm has SURPRISE written all over it….as in, here’s your dumping of snow and sleet you requested!
You’re certainly right about the head spinning lol.
Read your blog early this morning and thought it was good. Thanks for posting a link yesterday. U seem to forecast more on my area so I will def b checking it out more often from now on
Thanks! But know that I’m only a meteorology student and Chris has been doing this much longer than me so he’s got the better track record haha.
Lol. I understand. Still interesting though. Lol
What are your thoughts on this ? Two feet of snow ?????????
Status Update
By Tropical Storm Central
**MAJOR WINTER STORM TITAN update 3-1 @ 9:30am**
As I type the next NAM run is coming. I cannot stress enough how bad to protect the elderly because of loss of power coming to many for an extended period of time. The WoRst OF THE WORST appears to be coming from the models into nearly most of Kentucky with a significant amount of freezing rain + 1/2″ or more and then Snow of about 2-4″ or more on top of the freezing rain. Other places like NE Arkansas and Western Tennessee will also see significant amounts of freezing rain. There appears to be a line develop near SOUTH OF all these locations (central Kansas thru central Illinois, Central Indiana and Southern Ohio) that will develop FREEZING RAIN and SLEET BEFORE converting to Snow. This will make traveling nearly impossible with LOSS OF POWER LIKELY for not just HOURS BUT DAYS!
Currently the GFS MODEL has the greater SNOW FALL AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH with the NAM FURTHER SOUTH…..MEANING that the GFS MODEL also has the more Significant line of Freezing Rain more NORTH with the NAM has Freezing Rain more South. ALL MODELS agree on one thing! A VERY LARGE WINTER STORM IS COMING! Some places could see such large amounts of FREEZING RAIN that Catastrophic LOSS OF POWER and COLLAPSE OF FLAT ROOFS will be VERY POSSIBLE and POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD with loss of power for an extended period of time.
Just looking at the NAM models as I type…IT ABSOLUTELY KILLS NE ARKANSAS, NE TENNESSEE and MOST OF KENTUCKY with as much of 2 FEET OF SNOW with FREEZING RAIN FIRST! This would be crazy amounts if true! PREPARE NOW and AGAIN PROTECT THE ELDERLY!
Where did this come from Laurie?
Pulling futher south…going to miss us in the opposite direction than normal. ha ha…..
I am a charitable Individual.
I will take 5 inches of snow here in Louisville.
and the rest of the state can have their old schooler.
just watch out for the dry slots.lol
Hurrah for the NAM and what should be my deepest snow of the year and a vacation day digging out on Monday! But as usual we wait with bated breath to hear from the wisest of all…what sayest thou, Mr. Bailey?
Keeps pushing south, Indianapolis will miss the snow all together but southern Indiana and North Central KY could get the amounts of snow Indy was forecast to get.
If we can have todays and tonights model runs put the heaviest snow in S KY, then tomorrow’s last minute northwest jog can put CKY in heaviest snow.
I’m going to be in and out, with not much time to be surfing the ole web, what’s it look like for southern Kentucky (London, Somerset, Manchester), according to the latest model runs?
JKL says maybe an inch of snow maybe .2 of ice
Stole this from another forum…the latest hi-res nam snowfall. Going big…
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=230281
I still think this storm will suprise a lot of people.. It just has a different feel to it in my opinion. Even the Weather Channel is on board this time lol
It should be noted that ground temps WILL interfere with totals.
Also, there is a lot of moisture with this system that lies right on the fence of the freezing line, and all models have problems with that fence. Don’t focus on that eye candy too much. However, the ingredients are coming together with the more southern track. Keep an eye on that LP!
I concur ground temps always have an impact on eventual snow totals. However, I am close to Ashland Ky and I still have snow on my ground from early this week. That snow stuck much better than I would ever have guessed…perhaps because the ground is cold deep down from this extensive cold winter???? We had snow sticking even before the temp got to freezing. Go figger.
WPC has my area in a HIGH risk for a .25 of ice (70% chance)
Yea, WPC currently has 80% for .25 inch ice here in Nashville TN. Not good. Hoping it becomes more sleet and snow than ice. At least we are already stocked up on food and such in case we later get stuck at our place.
While my wife and I can’t wait to move out of our apartment later this year, at least we won’t have to directly deal with cleaning up all the possible downed tree limbs, toppled trees, damage to roofs and such. But we better not park our cars under any trees!
12z NAM….
6″- Louisville, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Lexington
8″- Etown, Somerset, Madisonville
10″- Danville, Hopkinsville
12″- Bowling Green, Jackson
Why not some eye candy while CB is recovering? 🙂
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
It would be nice the Coffee gets some snow
the=that
Yes, and Richmond had a big snow on that map too, so you KNOW it is bogus 😉
Looks like ice and sleet will knock that down to a snow topping for a lot of us, unless the cold air prevails. When was the last time that happened? Seems counter intuitive based on the set up and usual fence location, but a Bubba buster or sleet would be fine.
I get exactly where you are coming from Bubba.
This bad boy has a different feel to it. Idk…just maybe Kentucky will be prime time players for a change.
One thing I’m certain of…rain is not going to be a huge playmaker, except in the frozen form.
🙁
Tomorrow and Monday will bring what they bring. How about enjoying today? Pushing 50 and sunny!
Not sunny here and its a cold 54
Can’t believe the latest GFS. It’s confirming the NAM with a more southern track and colder solution. Never dreamed the low could be moved south into central/northern Alabama but it is…don’t see it being moved further south so I suspect we now have the snow track coming better into focus for all of eastern ky except the extreme se.
Really?!?!?!? You have to be lying?
What does that mean? More snow then ice I hope.
That would not stop the WAA though.
JKL plans on issuing a WWA for the forgotten only because of Monday morning commute
It has a fence too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSx8rwgjnyo
Soo…… what does this mean? No snow forever again?
I’ve said it before but the NAM and the GFS (if you’re desperate) are not ready for spitting out exactly what’s going to happen yet. There will be discrepancies all the way till the nowcast. Wait and see. It will come down to an hour by hour run of the short term models.
Based on the last events, they were nowcasters. We had mets saying with one of them it would be the biggest snow in years and turned into dry slots and sleet. The last big event was supposed to be ice of doom and rain prevailed. Those calls were while the events were happening.
Not picking on mets, it just is what it is over most of our state.
I do agree there, Mike
Doesn’t this just have a big storm feel to it, though?
BTW, CB must be REALLY sick not to be posting or tweeting. Normally I would blame it on the models backing off his forecast, but I think our buddy is sick in a fierce way.
Amazing the difference two years makes.
We just had the two year anniversary of the Feb 29 2012 “Leap Year” tornadoes, including the fatal EF4 in Harrisburg Illinois (just north of Paducah KY). Tomorow will be two years since the infamous March 2 2012 twisters (click here).
As bad as ice storms are, guess that’s still a lot better than twisters. Hope everybody in West Liberty KY, Henryville IN, etc, are fairing as well as can be expected.
Looks like temps are gonna go high again today, if we get any sun here we hit 60 easy. Got 56 and clouds right now, models are having a hard time with temps and warm air is hard to dislodge in this area.
Dodger asks, “Aren’t all winter storms nowcasts?” Yuuup! Dodger
While winter is currently stealing the headlines, March 2-8 2014 is Severe Wx Awareness Week in Kentucky and in other states. A good occasion to look up safety during tornadoes and other severe wx when taking a break from monitoring this upcoming winter storm.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=kyswaw2014_east
If temps were just a tad colder Eastern Ky would get walloped..Sure going to be interesting seeing Maybe rain then sleet then freezing rain and then snow..Hopefully the Euro will come in colder with moisture still around..
When does the euro come out?
1:00 pm
But that’s for paid subscription right? The site I look at doesn’t post the ECMWF until 3pm (its free)
Instantweathermaps.com 1pm also free. No precip of course though
NWS Nashville’s current Forecast Discussion is still unsure how the precip and cold will combine. Still, a bit puzzling that they don’t at least have a Winter Storm Watch out.
The overall map shows this big glaring empty space over NWS Nashville’s jurisdiction (something NWS Charleston WV is better know for doing), while NWS Memphis, Paducah and Louisville are lit up like Christmas trees.
Anyway, WTVF-TV here in Nashville is now really sounding the alarm about icing for parts of Tennessee and southern Kentucky. We of course hope the models will change at least somewhat away from ice from now until the storm arrives, but looking now-so-great at the moment.
looking not-so-great
Long time reader, few times blogging…. I just went outside and sprayed another layer of dome coating over the dome in Madison County… I’d much rather be poked in the eye with a fork than deal with anymore winter weather!!! 🙂
More eye candy….12z GFS
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
looks rather blah to me unless your north of Lexington
Uh oh. Going from bad to worse. NWS Paducah now has an Ice Storm Warning for much of western Kentucky.
Yet still not even any watch out nextdoor by NWS Nashville??
Here we go! NWS Nashville now has Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories out.
Ok we are in northern tennessee have to get home to evansville, in, trying to decide if we need to leave tonight but not finding any web sites to help us decide, any input
Sitting at 33 here in shelby county.Roads are fine but this started accumulating ice on tree limbs almost immediately.A couple of claps of thunder this morning.