Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. It has been an interesting week of weather forecasting around here with the “heat” and then the HEAT across the state. We will be seeing more of the same today as we throw some thunderstorms into the mix that will eventually lead to some much better weather for the weekend.
Look… I am not going to going to go into a recap of my rant from last night about the great heat hype of the past few days for central and eastern Kentucky. But, I do want to show you how it is important to look at many other factors than just what a computer model is telling you. The MAIN factor in the lack of REAL heat across the eastern half of the state compared to the west is soil moisture. This map shows just how wet the east has been and how dry the west has been over the past 90 days…
Now… do you think it was a coincidence Tuesday’s high temp map looked like this?
Tuesday’s Highs
If those maps don’t tell the story of why the west is baking with 100 degree plus temps and the east is struggling to get into the lower 90s… then I don’t know what will. Again… forecasters have got to stop just spitting out what a computer tells them to.
Anyway… today is going to be a tricky temp day because of the possibility of clouds and showers and thunderstorms in some areas. There is NO doubt that western Kentucky will climb back into the 100-105 degree gange today and will have a heat index value greater than 115. That is DANGEROUS and people across the western half of the state need to literally chill out today and stay inside for a bit.
What do we do with central and eastern Kentucky? That is the million dollar question and this is the region where clouds and some showers and storms can really cause temp forecasting issues. Temps will likely climb into the lower 90s in most areas. If you get enough sun.. 95 will be possible in some areas. Heat index values can top 100 degrees.
Track the “heat” and the HEAT here…
Current Temps
Heat Index
I mentioned the threat for showers and thunderstorms today and that risk is certainly there. Watch the northwestern skies for clusters of storms that may try to roll our way at any point today. Track the storms here…
Any storm that goes up today could be strong or severe and put down a whole lot of rainfall. More showers and storms will be with us Thursday into early Friday as a cold front moves in here. The threat for severe weather and torrential rains should be even higher as we bust the heat.
This should set us up for much better weather to start the weekend with 80s for highs and lower humidity levels.
Today is the last day of the “man verses computer” challenge. I have received lots of e-mails with people loving this little game and maybe it is something we will play again in the future. Anyway… here is where we stand going into the final day…
Lexington
GFS Raw GFS MOS NWS ME Actual
Friday: 87 87 87 83 83
Saturday: 89 90 88 84 84
Sunday: 95 94 90 88 89
Monday: 101 97 92 90 92
Tuesday: 100 97 93 92 91
Wednesday: 101 96 91 90
Here is a look at the current total number of degrees off for each of us over the past four days…
GFS Raw: 33
GFS Mos: 29
NWS: 11
Me: 4
I will have updates as needed today so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Can someone explain to me what “pooling dew points” means? I was reading another blog and he said he thought the 83 dew point might be “off” since that seemed high, but that the dew points were “pooling” in west Ky/southern In.
Thanks for the update Chris. Everyone
have a great day!
i am donewith all this 90-100 BS. i am so ready for fall and i got another 6 weeks atleast until a slight cool down 🙁 its just miserable when i was younger i relied on the pool in this weather but thats just a crutch. snowstorms rock!!!!! 90s and 100s DONT!
It’s 6:30 in the morning in the western KY counties…and some of the mesonet sites out there are showing a 90°F heat index already! OUCH.
Chris, you rock! I started following your blog last winter and found your forecasts to be SO much more accurate than either the NWS or local TV forecasters. Now you are absolutely THRASHING them with your temperature forecasts. I didn’t realize how many of them simply “regurgitate” what the computer models tell them instead of using their God-given brains, common sense and experience like you do. Keep up the good work!
(Almost) always love a good ‘ol fashioned Chris Bailey rant against the NWS. Yesterday was no exception. 🙂
The Excessive Heat Warning issued by JKL looks to be, well, excessive.
Not so out West…heat indicies already over 100 at 9am in Western KY.
Looks like today it’s going to be a draw between the men and the computers. This SHOULD be our hottest day of the year.
8:30 in the morning in western KY the mesonet sites already were over 100°F for heat index. WOW. 10:00 in the morning eastern time now and here in the Bluegrass we are at 98° heat index and climbing rapidly. Just unbelieveable heat indices. But I still say the NWS airtemp. cast is too high.
I have been trying to push mow my yard for the past 45 minutes and have taken at least three breaks. Typically, I nearly have the whole thing finished by now. Just too humid to breathe. Here in Corbin the dewpoint is 75 with a heat index of 92 at the moment.
HI is already in excess of 100°F in the Bluegrass too. By lunch, we’ll be firmly into Heat Advisory criteria. Hmm…
We are getting 100% insolation. I didn’t think we would today. Therefore, the heat indices are going to go through the roof and the NWS boys and girls are going to be closer than we thought they would.
Heat index in Corbin is being reported as 102 by NWS and 104 by TWC. I’m still working on getting that yard mowed…geez,it is taking forever because I have to take so many breaks.
eastern ky has a few mesonet observations over the 105 heat index already, the excessive heat warning verifies. I’ll tip my cap to nws today.
Echo watch mitch and wxman have to say..looks like warnings will verify.
Heat Index according to the mesonet is 108 in Harrodsburg right now, 106 in Frankfort, 103 in Lexington.
Nasty Day!
And just think…there are about 5 more hours of good heating left to go! Score one for the “computers” today.
Yep…ILN issued an Excessive Heat Warning for us as well and I won’t argue now. It’ll be interesting to see where the numbers peak this afternoon.
94/107 at CVG
94/104 at Campbell Co Mesonet
Here’s to hoping that line of storms building from Ohio back into Indiana keeps building west and moving southeast. A storm this afternoon would be tremendous.
These haave to be one of the highest area wide heat index readings in Central KY since July 30, 1999
That day
Bowling Green–112
Lexington–112
Jackson, KY–112
Covington—115
Louisville–119
Definitely a different type of heat out there today. The NWS got it right, finally.
Just wanted to say, my 2 oldest girls are in Galveston, Texas and our temp and heat index was the same as theirs! How crazy is that!
93 here in Nicholasville with heat index 103
90 in Galveston with heat index 103
wow
I’m liking what i’m seeing storms building to my south hopefully it will continue as far as Heat Index 107 here in Knox County
One of the stations closest to me (Harrodsburg) is showing 112 right now. I don’t remember an official HI reading that high for many years….although this very same week back in ’07 my home station showed 115.
This heat and humidity are unbelievable..I cannot remember it ever being as hot as this. I’m with ya Andy, the heat index is the same here at my house in Corbin. My son works outside..I really hope he is taking is extremely easy today.
Flash flooding starting to occur here in Pike County.
Stream near my house is starting to come out of its banks.
These storms are going up fast and very strong because of this extremely unstable air. Wow. That’s what we need to bust up these heat index readings though…a bunch of outflows.
Well the computer may have won today’s match, but it looks like CB won the “best of” series. As Aaron pointed out, hats off to the NWS for verifying. The heat and humidity here in London/Corbin is insane. Heat index around 105, hopefully those storms building to the west will make it in. Lots of football practices will have to adjust to the heat this evening.
Everyone be careful if you are outside cutting grass today. My son cut our grass Monday. He almost had a heat stroke. Monday night, he was still sick. And the heat today is even worse.
New post from Chris
there are some great points in this article now to do more research