Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Just to let you know… if you are not a fan of my rants on how the National Weather Service does business around here… please turn away. 
This is about the current HEAT HYPE that is totally out of control with the forecasts coming from our local NWS offices. It has reached a stage to where it deserves its own post.
Let’s set the stage with where we are. If you are a regular reader of the blog… we have had an ongoing DIRECT challenge to the absurd heat numbers coming from the GFS and those who use them or even skew toward them. I am not going to rehash how things have been going with the challenge as the numbers speak for themselves. The computers and those who swear by them are getting CRUSHED with their temp forecasts.
Now some of the same people are trumpeting the heat of today and tomorrow as something straight out of the pits of H E double hockey sticks. The National Weather Service in Jackson has even upped the ante with an Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow. By my count… they have issued 5 separate Heat Advisories this summer and not one has verified…. that includes today.
Let’s recap today’s blazes of a forecast from Jackson…
…HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY…
.REST OF TODAY…HOT. PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX NEAR 100.
That was their forecast from around noon today for the rest of the afternoon. Now… read this from their update on today’s “heat” as they put out tomorrow’s end of the world Excessive Heat Warning…
346 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010
…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY…
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
Temps will REMAIN into the 90s????? I can’t find where temps have even hit 90s yet. Check out the afternoon obs…
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LEXINGTON MOSUNNY 89 66 46 SW8 30.04F HX 91
COVINGTON PTSUNNY 89 70 53 SW8 30.01F HX 94
FRANKFORT PTSUNNY 88 68 51 SW6 30.02F HX 91
$$
KYZ054-064>069-076>088-106>120-032100-
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
JACKSON PTSUNNY 87 72 60 CALM 30.08F HX 93
LONDON CLOUDY 89 70 53 W6 30.07F HX 94
As of the writing of that statement from the NWS in Jackson.. NOT ONE SINGLE REPORTING STATION HAD HIT 90. Yet… they tell you temps will REMAIN well into the 90s. Heck… the heat index was only in the low 90s and a far cry from verifying the heat advisory that was issued. It is as if they are saying… don’t pay attention to what is ACTUALLY happening… just our version of what is happening.
Given the overhyped heat of today and the past several days… one would assume they would be MUCH more cautious and try not to get burned once again. One would assume wrong! This is from the afternoon discussion from the NWS in Jackson…
THE BIG STORY IS THE HEAT FOR TOMORROW. DECIDED TO GO WITH A HEAT
WARNING…HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT CAN MESS IT UP.
So… let us be clear on this. We have yet to even hit heat advisory criteria… even today… and the forecaster says there are some things that can mess it up tomorrow like clouds and showers and storms. Then why on earth would you issue an excessive heat warning?!! Could it verify? Well.. anything is possible and I am not even so much talking about tomorrow verifying or not. It is just the fact that no one bothers to look to see how poorly the forecasts are verifying today and in the past few days and just giving you more of the same then spinning it to sound as if they were right.
It’s not just Jackson getting in on the hype… Louisville and Wilmington have been doing the same for PARTS of their forecast areas. In particular… the Lexington area. Heck… Louisville is even showing the record highs for tomorrow which means they are doing it for a reason thinking we can challenge them…
RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW:
LOUISVILLE……101 IN 1930
LEXINGTON…….99 IN 2002 AND 1930
BOWLING GREEN…104 IN 1930
FRANKFORT…….101 IN 1930
Folks… if Lexington and Frankfort come even get close to record highs for tomorrow I would be VERY surprised!
Let me be clear… there is NO hype for the western half of the state as temps are blazing in these areas. The fight I have is for the eastern half of Kentucky.
Now… for those of you who want to rip me for taking the NWS to task… I have a question for you. Why aren’t you doing it?
It is our tax dollars at work and we as a people have every right to demand nothing but the best from those who, effectively, work for us. You don’t pay me a dime for my forecasts or blog so you do not have a vested interest in what I say. That is not the same for the NWS forecasts and information.
Here is an open invite to any National Weather Service forecaster to respond directly to this blog. I will even give you your own blog post to explain yourself.
Normally I feel better after a rant… not this time as the whole “spin” factor of all this really has me steamed! Take care.
Amen Chris! Ive noticed the raves about the heat as well….YES, it is hot out there but not as hot as they are forecasting!! We’ll see what tomorrow holds! I think a good mix of sun and clouds will play a role in the heat while we will finally hit the 90 degree mark! I can see a high of 92 with heat indices pushing that a tad warmer….Gotta love the NWS!!!
That’s some good lawyerin’, Mr. Bailey.
Heat index hit 123 in Owensboro today. Yikes!!
Great post Chris!!! Love it that you just tell it like it is..You are my source of weather information year round.
I have to say that I agree with CB 100% on this one. Has Jackson even hit 95 EVER this Summer? If so, I don’t recall it. It’s been downright cool in eastern KY compared to the 125 degree heat indices we saw in western KY today.
WHY ON EARTH ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING when you can’t even get your Heat Advisory products to verify?? You can’t take this away from Chris…he’s totally correct with this post.
Shreveport LA…….Right now…..100 degrees with a 112 heat index…The humidity is 43 percent and the dew point 74……….
Owensboro KY……Right now temp 97 degrees with a 124 heat index…Humidity is 64 percent and the dew point is 83???
Could someone explain to me how the dew point can be that EXTREME …..It’s even more extreme than Louisiana (gulf coast).
And this is why I LOVE reading your blog. I thought for sure that the weather station that was reporting on WeatherUnderground HAD to have been out of whack because at 4:30 this afternoon…it had the temp here in Shelbyville at 89 degrees. I thought “This isn’t possible because EVERYONE else is telling me how DANGEROUSLY hot it is.”
And thank you so much for reminding us that OUR TAX DOLLARS fund the NWS. Few people seem to realize how tax dollars are spent. Incompetence isn’t something we stand for when we’re shellin’ out dollar bills…why should we tolerate it when THOUSANDS of our dollars are being spent.
Keep up the good work and thanks so much for all your weather work. It is REALLY appreciated it.
A very “HOT” 91 in Irvine today so much for the excessive heat warning that only seems to cover a sliver of counties. I think the NWS boys have the hots for WTVQ’s Jennifer Schack because some of their language today about the heat mirrors that of her broadcast at noon today. “AND THE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY ADD TO
THE STIFLING EFFECT OF THE HEAT.” Seems like I heard that on TV today.
Chris, your accuracy is the reason that I come here year round for my weather forecasts. Thank you for all your hard work.
Official air temp forecast for Lawrencburg tomorrow is 100. Are you kidding me??? We only hit 91 today with more sun than we’ll have tomorrow! Atrocious forecasting.
Very interesting drive west around 3:00 this afternoon. Our vehicle temp gauge read 89 when we left Georgetown, hit 95 on I64 just west of Frankfort, and sat at 95/96 til we hit southern Indiana. We stopped in Louisville and it definitely was much hotter than Georgetown. We drove back through Louisville, and the temp gauge dropped 6 degrees near the Waddy exit. I don’t think this wedge of real hot air is too far away.
My SUV said it was 108 when I left work this afternoon in Frankfort. Granted, it cooled to 90 once I started moving, but I’m sure the NWS would count that 🙂
based on the latest ecmwf run which has been cooler than the gfs which has had a warm bias this past week the max heat index w/ ecmwf from 100-105 in the jackson forecast area. there forecast is for higher values than this 103-108 for tommorow. I’m going 98-104 for max heat index values for east ky which would make just miss heat advisory criteria.
I think we need to replace the GFS with a monkey, three darts, and a board with numbers on it. You let the monkey throw the darts then add the numbers together and that’s the temp. for the day. Then when they say it’ll be 98 and it’s 87 they would at least have an excuse.
That was HYSTERICAL reading Packman!
So Chris, how do we get the people at the NWS to hear the complaints? It’s not like we can stop sending them money… Who do we call?
I live in Pikeville and at 8:30 last night the thermometer outside read 85. At 2 yesterday I thought of taking my kids to the park and I looked at the thermometer and it read 98. That sounds excessive to me. The weather channel never gets anything right. I actually tune there sometimes just to see how far off they are. At best yesterday they were 9 degrees off what my thermometer said.
At 3:15 p.m. today my car temperature reading stated 97 degrees in Fallsburg and the humidity was unbelievable.
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