Good Monday everyone… Here is hoping each of you had a terrific weekend. The heat is returning to the state today and will steal the weather stage through the middle of the week before we get in on some relief. The tropics are showing some signs of life and we will touch on that as well.
Hot and humid weather is back with us today and will really ramp up for Tuesday and Wednesday. Just like every heat wave of the summer… the core of the heat is not going to fully make it in here. Here is a map I put together showing where the REAL DEAL heat is going to be…

The 100 degree isotherm may make it into the far western part of the state at some point the next few days. I would imagine the hot thermometer at Louisville will make a run into the upper 90s Tuesday or Wednesday.
For the rest of us… the forecast looks like this…

Your friendly breakdown…
– Highs today will likely be around 90 for many with a lower 90 a good possibility for some.
– The hottest weather will be Tuesday into Wednesday as readings hang out in the 90-95 degree range for highs.
– The increase in humidity during this time will push the “feel like” temp to around 100 degrees. 105 is possible in the west. Nasty!
– The threat for a late day storm will be with us Wednesday before a much better chance for storms moves in here on Thursday. One or two of those storms may linger into Friday.
– Temps are going to come way down for thursday and Friday and likely into the start of the upcoming weekend with 80s for highs.
Looking out in the Atlantic… the active hurricane season has been off to a rather slow start. That should change VERY soon as Colin is likely to form over the next few days as it heads to the northwest with a possible date with the U.S. at some point. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

Back here on the ranch… We are now beyond the halfway mark of the “Man Verses Computer” challenge we put out this past Thursday and the computers are in deep trouble at the half. Here is a look at the forecast numbers and the actual high temps for the first three days of the challenge…
Lexington
GFS Raw GFS MOS NWS ME Actual
Friday: 87 87 87 83 83
Saturday: 89 90 88 84 84
Sunday: 95 94 90 88 89
Monday: 101 97 92 90
Tuesday: 100 97 93 92
Wednesday: 101 96 91 90
If you are playing along at home… here is a look at the total number of degrees off the various parties have been…
GFS Raw: 15
GFS Mos: 15
NWS: 9
Me: 1
Man is taking the computers to the Geek Squad for repair right now!
The next three days will likely see my numbers on the low side of the actuals and I think the NWS folks are in very good shape during this time.
With the heat back in full force… I leave you with the title song of the today’s blog…
Try to keep your clothes on and take care. ![]()
There is no denying that you are right Chris. The forecasting has been atrocious lately from both the NWS and SPC alike.
Interestingly, when I did a very similar “experiment” about 2 years ago while you were at KYT, the NWS did much better. I did the test for 6 straight weeks and then averaged the results. They were #1, and you were VERY close at #2.
Now, they are clearly not doing as well and you are trashing them AND the computers. LOL. I wonder what’s going on over there? Big personnel changes?
Chris I wouldn’t mind if both of you were wrong and we had an early fall!! I hate, hate, hate the hot weather. This ‘ole lady can’t take it!!! LOL!
I think this is an interesting game and you should do it again for next week. 🙂
And I agree with the others…this heat is getting old. Interesting though…the ratio of 90-95 degree days to 95-100 degree days is very lopsided this year.
I’ll take this weather any day as opposed to 40 degrees and rainy…which is what our winters are.
Especially doing it in the winter months with the forcast! That would be really interesting to follow!
Add me to the ready to end this heat list.
Lexington up to 91 right now…so a tie between Chris and the NWS. I say the NWS wins today.
Something smells fishy here. The mesonet for Lex is at 87. The “ofciaial” Lexington temp is warmer than London and is the same as Bowling Green, Owensboro, Hopkinsville and Glasgow. It is also the same as the CRAZY hot thermometer in Somerset. Something is not right with that as LEX is NEVER among the warmest in the entire state!!
I noticed that too…was surprised myself…
I’m in North Mercer (just off BG Parkway) 20 miles from the airport and I’m hanging at 89 degrees