Good evening everyone. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is out for parts of western and southern Kentucky until 10pm this evening. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are cranking up across this region and damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.
You can see the watch outline and the latest warnings here…
Your storm tracking radars…
I will have updates as needed. Take care.
Thanks for the update Chris.
Just based on radar trends alone, the threat remains there, although isolated. The watch is appropriate.
CAPE Values in Tennessee, near Jackson, where the watch is in effect, are near 5,000…that’s an unusually high number this far north, any time of year.
Lifted indexes are only moderate, so parcels of air are not going to rise that much, which seems to tell me that thunderstorms will be low-topped.
PWat values are around 1.4 to 1.6…just enough moisture to create flash flooding…
I’m about done looking at the supercell composite…it virtually has no use outside of areas based on radar trends, as well as the Craven/Brooks Significant Severe Index…
Precipitation Potential Placement shows that southern and especially southwestern Tennessee may get in a fairly lengthy period (about an hour or so) of very heavy rains.
Time will tell, and we’ll see how the model plots are doing tonight in terms of their accuracy.
As per the SPC watch,
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an update on their Meoscale Convective Complex discussion on their webpage regarding this watch, MDS number 553, and this reasoning seems safe and sound enough to me. I won’t take my eye away from it until the daytime heating has passed….but….it seems like they’ve addressed the main issues present for severe storms to form, and they’ve evaluated them enough to say the threat has diminished.
Top performance on this watch.
Well, Nashville is going to get one tonight, anyway.
Rogue thunderstorm just south of Louisville at 9:57. All I’m going to say about that for fear of posting too much.