Good Thursday evening gang. I thought it would be fun to get into a knock down drag out with the computer forecasts that come from the GFS model. The computer is packing heat for this fight… but thankfully it’s not the kind that is going to require me to wear a bullet proof vest and camouflage all day long.
I have chosen the next 5 days and the city of Lexington for this duel to the weather death. I have also included the forecast from the National Weather Service in this winner take all battle royal. The numbers coming from the GFS are literally off the charts… both the raw numbers and those from the MOS. The NWS folks are too warm for my taste too… especially over the next few days. But… even as they have disowned the GFS with the torrid heat of the summer… they still follow it too closely on days like we have just ahead of us. Psst… if the model is too warm on really hot days… chances are it is also too warm on the “not so hot” days. 
Anyway… let’s have some fun with this. Here is the tale of the tape with the current high temp forecasts we all have out…
Lexington
GFS Raw GFS MOS NWS ME
Friday: 87 87 87 83
Saturday: 89 90 88 84
Sunday: 95 94 90 88
Monday: 101 97 92 90
Tuesday: 100 97 93 92
Wednesday: 101 96 91 90
While the forecasts will change in the coming days from all of us… we will judge the outcome based ONLY on the numbers above and how they stack up with what actually happens with the temps.
So… it is the unholy alliance of the NWS and Me against the computers! Let’s get ready to ruuuuummmmbbbblllleee!!! 
Take care.
LOL!!!
we should put ecmwf highs on here as well. ecmwf afternoon high for lex
friday 84
Saturday 79 (numerous storms)
Sunday 85
Monday 89
Tuesday 93
Wednesday 87
It’s on now! A Radar Rumble! A Thermometer Thmackdown! It’s the fiercest Fahrenheit fight of the century! Chris “Brouhaha” Bailey and the NWS “Never Will Surrender” crew versus the MOSt RAW data of the GFS “Gotta Fail Sometimes” models!
This is going to be one for the ages, folks! LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLET’S GET READY TO SPRINKLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have withdrawn my savings from the bank and placed it on Chris to win this one. The man is a weather forecasting machine.
I think all of knows who’s going to win this cage match. I’m guessing a TKO by the third round (day). Since Chris worked here (LexVegas), he already knows how far off the NWS is on a daily basis for Lexington since they removed their office especially a few days out. I had the opportunity to talk with TG about it several years ago and he explained why that was the case. Ever since then, I have not used the TWC or NWS for any of my weather needs. The “locals” know best. Besides, we all know Chris is The Man!
Since the weather office is in Louisville, do they perform any better for Louisville as they did for Lexington (when they were in Lexington?) I wasn’t living here when the NWS was located here.
Long time reader and loyal follower. I just had to chime in because this is really cool (pun intended). Speaking as a H.S. football coach heading to camp a little south of Lexington tomorrow, I hope you nail it Chris! Keep up the good work. You are greatly appreciated.
Chris and the NWS against the GFS! It’s like dogs and cats living toghether… it’s mass hysteria! Laying the smackdown better than the Rock, it’s Chris “The Legend” Bailey! Man I really need to lay off the coffee in the morning ;).
It looks like either way, it is going to be hot on these days. However, it is cool to see behind the scenes on the models.
I just sent this post to a bunch of my friends as I agree with most of what you’re saying here and the way you’ve presented it is awesome.
Awesome Blog. I add this Blog to my bookmarks.