Good Thursday afternoon, gang. Snow showers and squalls continue to push across the region. These are creating mini blizzards and covering roads as they blow through on 30mph wind gusts. That’s also creating wind chills in the single digits.
What happens from this point? The flakes will slowly wind down tonight as temps drop to around 10 degrees in some areas. Wind chill numbers may hit 0 or a bit below at times.
The next arctic front arrives Valentine’s Day and will have more widespread snow showers and squalls…
Throw in gusts of 35-40mph and blowing snow will likely become another issue during the afternoon and evening. That’s actually when the front swings in. Temps will spike ahead of it and then crash by 15-20 degrees in an hour behind it. By evening, high single digits and low teens will show up with wind chills below zero.
Single digit lows will then show up Sunday and Monday…
That brings us to the potential winter storm from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley from Monday through Wednesday. I have no changes on what I’m going to tell you. I understand there will be many forecasters taking stands based on whatever the last computer model showed. That’s just silly from 4 days out because we aren’t even into the window to look for trends. That comes later Friday into Saturday.
The Canadian Model snowfall map holds on to a constant theme…
The GFS snowfall map changed dramatically from what it has been showing for days…
Again, let’s wait until later Friday into Saturday before jumping on any of the model solutions.
I will update again later today. Let’s track what’s out there today…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
I-75 MPÂ 127
Georgetown
I-64Â MP 97
Winchester
I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
I-65 MP 32
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
Enjoy the day and take care.
Looks like Tennessee better watch out next week! 😉 🙂
Yea – like Chris said, you can’t buy into a model this far out (WHY? I don’t know!!) but we can’t…..But anytime there is arctic air involved, you have to worry about it going more south than north. That’s why I said yesterday (if anything) worry about it going south ….But I guess we’ll see.
Well you cant buy into the models because it is completely impossible for them to correctly predict what is going to happen 4 days from now. We still have 2 small systems to go through before we even get to the big one, and those will greatly affect how the mon-tue one plays out.
Just on the outside edge of this snow as per usual. If there had been any roads covered in Knox County school would have been out hrs ago lol
What’s good for Tennessee snow wise is generally good for Middleboro. I’ll take it!
Looks like you are singing Oh Canada right about now!
Yup us forgotten or shunned folks are singing the Canadian praises lol
it could be a snow on the north side and ice on the south side event. Wanting no part of the south side if that is the case.
I hope CB at least can dispel any concerns that ice would be the main player. I will take snow or a miss- thank you!
I like that Tennessee snowfall map its laying the smack down on us here in Athens Tennessee
Be interesting to see if the Euro goes south like the other models..We shall see shortly..
Look at the brightside at least its not trending north
Rimshot!
Believe this is one time we may not want a NW shift unless you like ice..Bad ice storm for some of the southern states..
Sadly- yep.
Agreed! Once it trends south the NW trend generally plays out just fine. I see a apps runner with all types of precip for most of Kentucky. Ice could still be a big concern for some.
Very good setup for SE KY, or so it seems… still way early
If I were a good at betting (I’m not really) seems SE KY might have the best shot as far as KY is concerned. Key word being “seems” since CB points out it is too early.
That said, the models without the cold air already in place have the events go north, and with cold air in place they go south of Kentucky. That fits our “Fencetucky” results over the years.
If we base the trend of the previous events, the average of models did their northern shift during the same time frame and panned out. That at least suggests perhaps the south trend is in the right time frame to show it’s true directional intent.
That is a verbose way of saying Tennessee might be the “sweet” spot- IF the previous trends for events this winter fits this event. I will not pretend to know and simply basing on what has been happening.
If ice, where it hits would really be a “sour” spot.
indeed, it usually slams tenn.
When does the Euro come out?
Im with CB on this, too far out to call anything, but here is how it will probably go down. Just like all the other “potential” snowmakers this year, models will show all that potential, yada yada yada, and then trend away to a dusting for central ky by the time it arrives….Old Man Winter just doesn’t want to cooperate.
Cold air gonna push this baby south IMO. Someone in south gonna get pounded with Ice
Somebody update us on the Euro with it’s snowfall map when it comes out! 🙂
I get what Chris is saying that it’s too early to worry about trends but I can’t help but stress over this southward jog on the models today. What is the reason for it? I somehow feel that because it’s a day closer to the event that today’s model runs are slightly more accurate. I know that is far from the truth but I can’t help but think it!
Somebody should take a weeks worth of all the models and loop them so you could watch them move back and forth. I’m sure it would either hypnotize you or make you carsick.
They do move back and forth, but the overall trend usually shows it’s direction. Kind of like a roller coaster that goes up and down in spots, but there is an overall direction it is heading.
I`m thinking a lot of that snow, currently showing on the models, will be freezing rain and sleet. We`ll see, but north of the parkways could be snow and south better watch out for ice.
CB needs to post an ice refute! 🙂
the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away ….. snow melted about as fast as it came.
That could be a sign as knox never had anything sticking here so maybe the next snow will be around a while 😉
Looks like the cold air is going to squash the storm to the south. We can’t win for losing. Hope the North trend kicks in if this is going south.
Though CB nails it not looking for a lock this early, the north events shifted in this time frame, so maybe not much overall shift back north. If ice though, no harm no foul IMO.
That is unless the northern waffles offset the southern waffles exactly. That would be weird.
actually sitting here in Louisville.
I like our chances.
I think the low has a better chance of moving north than south.
we will see, the 0z runs tomorrow night will begin to develop the storyline.
I like this site for the Euro maps..Plus it’s cheaper…Wxbell snowfall maps are usually way over done..Now is this way over done..probably..Anyways she keeps going south..
http://i.imgur.com/Q5pUORE.jpg
that is still a decent snow maker for the majority of Kentucky.
not everybody will get thumped but the majority of the people will see some decent accumulation for Kentucky standards.
I still think it’s going to go back north somewhat before it turns towards the Northeast.
Weather channel saying were right smack middle of the potential. But we will see
Question:
I’ve read in on past posts that stronger low=father north, while weaker low = farther south. My ? is: Is this the same case with arctic air in place?
MarkLex I was just getting ready to post that the cold air will not push this system south. Low pressure systems that strengthen pull to the north. So let it go south for the time being. It will get stronger as it pulls in the warm gulf moisture. Apps runner!
That kind of warm surge though tends to be an ingredient for warm air aloft for the southern part of the path it takes.
And ice
There’s probably 10 different scenarios why it could go North and 10 scenarios why it stay’s South..Northern branch has been dominant this winter..If the Northern branch digs a little more and phasing occurs congrats Chicago..Still early to get one’s hope up..
Cold air probably will not be a pushover this time. Could be a battle between perhaps mainly KY or mainly Tennessee. Ditto in regards to ice or snow. That of course presumes the event even come together as expected.
that is still a decent snow maker for the majority of Kentucky.
not everybody will get thumped but the majority of the people will see some decent accumulation for Kentucky standards.
I still think it’s going to go back north somewhat before it turns towards the Northeast.
I am referring to the euro snowfall map that ready 4 snow was kind enough to post.
The 12Z European confirms the southern corrections shown by the GFS and Canadian. That’s life in Kentucky folks.
it is going to shift back north history tells us this.
I know if I had to bet which direction the shift is going to occur in Vegas, I am choosing the north.
That would be likely if north waffles go less north each iteration. I never bought into the waffle rationale since there is still an overall directional trend. In this case south- waffles and all.
Seems though the further south it might go, the more potential for ice perhaps being a key player.
Be nice to see CB say it is going north over Kentucky and be snow, but mother nature is like the honey badger and don’t give a shoot.
Sun has a lot of strength already comes a dusting sun comes out melts it away, seems like March weather despite the cold temps
Higher sun angles so it is more powerful. 🙂
Feb 2012 we got a 5 half inch snowfall on a Sunday, during daylight hours. Suprized me we got that much.
im on a android phone or id post a linknto the feb 2012 storm
Bit more positive for this storm.
Honestly, southern KY and Tennessee deserve this snow storm (not ice) because Nashville area and southern KY have been devastated by a snow drought, much more than Cent KY has.
Richmond ain’t got much either, so some central KY folks are in the same boat. Slaaaave to the rivaaahhh! A little tribute to Grace Jones 🙂
well, I might have to renege on my bet.
it is my understanding that this storm might eject two different pulses towards the east.
that means 2 weaker lows
if that’s the case the storm will probably trend south.
Probably just wishful thinking, but if mainly Tennessee I’m thinking mainly ice and if Kentucky- hopefully mainly snow.
How many traces of snow does it take to add up to an inch? I think I just got hit with another trace this afternoon. I don’t think it would qualify as a heavy frost. I had to look real quick before the sun melted it. We have gotten about a half dozen of these trace snows in the Huntington area this season. I have virtually zero hope for the Saturday and Tuesday systems. Considering the Winter as a whole and the non event from today. Today not near as bad as advertised, I walked the dog about noon, a few flurries and almost as much sun, very little wind and temp about 30. Not very brutal to me.
18z nam painting a totally different picture for Monday than the 12z GFS
I have a question for anyone that can help me out if this system for next week does pan out what is the time line for it? HELP!?!
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=2538
I mentioned the feb 2012 storm in earlier post, here is the link. Feb 19th 2012. I saw 5 half inches, was ladt nig snpw I had here at house. Several dustings butin no big ones. Maybe a inch and half In jan 2014.
Hope we get something this time
If I read the 18z NAM correctly it looks like a good thumping of snow for CKy. Not that the models have worked in our favor this winter. I like our chances on this one though. I am remaining cautiously optimistic. Thank you for all the updates CB, I enjoy the “chase” even if the models don’t verify.
(Hoping these do though, the kids really want a snow day, or two!)
Looks like it will go south.:(
GFS is liking the south. Odd thing about the 18Z run… There is hardly any precip north of the 0C isotherm. Bit odd for a system showing gulf moisture. The 18Z NAM is loving Kentucky. Of course, this is why we never trust models so far out; because they are far out!
New 18Z GFS pushes storm way south of Kentucky, recurves up the East Coast and smashes the northeast,..however, keep in mind, this is an “off” run of the GFS…..so far..GFS is jumping all over the place…so I don’t put much stock in this run…
The GFS has been trending south for several runs now.
Figured it was about time the GFS goes on it’s loony bin..Folks don’t believe anything this garbage spits out until Monday..
Wow, the 18z GFS is pushing the storm so south that it’s losing the storm. Heck, even though it recurves up into a Nor’easter, it is mostly out to sea and traces of snow would reach the gulf coast down towards New Orleans. These are good signs for TN and SKY folks, they might actually get their storm out of this one! But needless to say, ALL models keep trending south. What goes down, must come up (With snowstorms!) Anxiously waiting to see the 00z ECMWF tonight…
Trends in winter here tend to be cruel things.