Good Saturday, everyone. Here’s hoping this update finds you having a wonderful start to the weekend. The weather is absolutely gorgeous out there today and that continues into Sunday. Soak it up before another big storm system impacts our weather early next week. That looks to be a catalyst for a major pattern change leading us into much more of a winter look.

That storm slowly works across the plains states and lifts to the north from Monday through Wednesday.

GFS

The flow will initially bring scattered showers and storms in here later Monday and Tuesday. The bulk of the action comes late Tuesday into Wednesday. That’s when a wall of slow moving rain and storms works eastward through the state. Heavy rains appear likely with local high water concerns possible in the west.

That system pulls away as chillier air sweeps in here Thursday and Friday. A colder shot of air arrives over the weekend. The question is… will it have some kind of storm system with it. I suspect that depends a lot on how the midweek storm plays out exactly.

The GFS Ensembles are hinting at a deeper system late next week into early Thanksgiving week…

GFS 3

That particular run actually develops a storm that runs from the Gulf up the east coast…

GFS 4

That map shows the pressure anomalies. The blue shows lower pressure with the orange and reds showing the higher pressures.

Once into Thanksgiving week, we really start to see some blocking taking over. This goes for the eastern Pacific and into the North Atlantic. Once that happens, we will really have to watch these kinds of systems much more closely.

A much colder than normal pattern, at least, appears to be in the making…

GFS 2

I will shoot you another update later today. Enjoy the day and take care.