A September Feel Surges In

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s feeling more like mid-September than the middle of August and you will find no complaints from your friendly weatherdude. This cooler than normal air hangs tough into the start of the weekend with a blast of heat trying to surge in behind it.

Temps today are going to be a struggle in many areas. Northwest winds are gusting behind a potent storm system slowly pulling away to our northeast. Highs in the 70-75 degree range look likely in the north with mid to upper 70s for much of the rest of the state.

Clouds and scattered showers will also be filling in behind our low pressure. Here are your radars to follow along…

Temps tonight will drop deep into the 50s where skies clear and will stay around 60 where clouds and any shower hang around.

This sets the stage for another awesome temp day for Wednesday with highs mainly in the upper 70s central and east with low 80s west. We will need to watch for low-level moisture being a little stubbon and, if that’s the case, we could still spit out a stray shower in the east.

Thursday starts in the 50s once again with upper 70s and low 80s for many. A few middle 80s will also be possible as southwest winds gust up ahead of the next cold front. This boundary has just a small amount of moisture with it so only scattered showers will be possible.

This slides through and delivers more in the way of September air for Friday into the weekend. Highs are back into the upper 70s and low 80s for Friday and Saturday with lows dropping into the 50s.

Heat does work toward us by early next week but the models are already edging this farther west with the heat ridge centered west of the Mississippi River…

Thunderstorms may drop in from the north and northwest by Wednesday and Thursday as we kick the heat ridge to the west with another trough dropping into the eastern part of the country…

Those maps are from the EURO which only goes out 10 days in advance. From there, it hands off to the Control Run of the EURO Ensembles. Check out what that run does with the trough…

The seasonal trend is hard to break, folks. That seasonal trend has been for troughs to dig into our region with only sporadic days with actual toasty temps. While we are likely to get some of those early next week, odds favor that only lasting for a few days.

I’m going to continue to sound the alarm on the lid coming off on the tropics over the next few weeks. The National Hurricane Center continues to track two systems well out in the Atlantic…

A few days ago I shared the winter forecast from a seasonal model known as the CanSIPS. You can read that post here: Active Setup Continues and A Look Way Down The Road

The latest seasonal run from the EURO has a similar look to what the CanSIPS is showing with a nice-looking setup for winter lovers in our region. Like the CanSIPS, this model rarely shows anything but ridges and above normal temps, so it gets your attention when it doesn’t.

Let’s start with the look upstairs for November…

Notice all the higher heights across Canada with a weak trough underneath it across the southern half of the lower 48.

That same look is there for December as the trough gets just a little broader…

Like the CanSIPS, the EURO shows that trough deepening into January as ridging goes up in western Canada into Alaska…

That look strengthens into February…

As I mentioned, this model really doesn’t see troughs and colder than normal temps very well. The “normal” temp forecast for the winter as a whole is likely good news for winter lovers…

We are in unprecedented times with the weather and climate… This should be VERY apparent to anyone paying attention. The world’s oceans are on fire with above normal temps across the globe, so what impact does a strengthening El Nino have on a ocean base state that’s already above normal? No one knows the answer to this, regardless of what they say because we have never seen this setup before.

This animation from the EURO where it thinks the oceans are this winter. Watch how the El Nino in the tropical Pacific is forecast to move back toward the west over time…

In a typical weather world, a farther west El Nino is usually a good sign for winter lovers in our region. These are not normal times, though. As always, we shall see.

Enjoy your day and take care.

8 Comments

  1. kywildcat

    .another .48 in Corbin today, approaching 5 inches for the month. Thought that might happen this evening but it setup further south and east.

  2. Jeff Hamlin

    Long range models are not reliable.

  3. Schroeder

    Thanks Chris. Look at the current SST, and find that the Arctic is Not on Fire, and the slowly developing El Nino is being delayed by above normal SST in the Tropical Atlantic prompting NOAA to call for above normal Tropical cyclone activity for the rest of the season. If the AMO doesn’t go negative, there will be no changes in this forecast in my opinion. Enjoy the lower high temperatures and dew points the next few days, as a Heat Wave may be developing later in the weekend. Don’t know for sure if this will happen depends where the high pressure sets up. Weather models showing only the anomalies should be back up with the current real time models. Again in my opinion.

  4. MarkLex

    OMG…. they added another mesonet station in Fayette County??

    I think we agree the climate is changing…the debate is whether it’s human caused or it would happen in its own (regardless of us) The scientists that AGREE that it’s us get funding… if they don’t agree, they don’t (from what I understand)

    • Schroeder

      Man has not been on this planet long enough to make such an a*s*sumption that the climate is changing to way above normal Earth temperatures. What happened in 1976 to 1979 was a change to the colder. It’s just normal weather cycles of the Earth. Plant life that grew here for a thousand years proves this.

      Examples of Earth cycles are La Nina, ENSO / neutral and El Nino affecting the temperatures in the Tropical Pacific in turn affect the Polar and Subtropical jet streams all around the World.

  5. Schroeder

    I think we have been between La Nina and El Nino most of this Summer. An ENSO / neutral Summer pattern would explain the above normal rainfall in various areas of the state. This El Nino Winter pattern could result in a split flow, which would keep the two jet stream from merging over the Southern Rockies. No two El Nino’s are alike however.

  6. Paul DeLong

    Weather is not normal it’s a cycle we have not seen it we have only had a thermometer since 1600 hundrend and no records were kept only to say it was hot or cold.

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