Good Wednesday to one and all. Old Man Winter has continues to do his thing across the country in what has been an amazing start to winter across the country. Looking at the pattern I see taking shape… this is just the start of a good old fashioned winter across the lower 48. Yes, that includes the bluegrass state.
We have an arctic front rolling into town later today. This will cause our winds to gust up and is likely to produce a narrow band of flurries or a touch of light snow. Temps ahead of this will hit the 30s and will crash once it blows through.
Current temperatures
This leads us into a very cold Thursday with lows from the upper single digits with snow cover, to the teens without. Highs will only rebound into the 20s. Brr!
Our next system rolls our way by late Friday and will make for another ugly weekend across our part of the world. The models are now sensing the cold air that will be in place and are taking a turn for the colder with this storm. The NAM has a shot of snow on the front end of this Friday night and Sunday morning…
The Canadian Model is also showing a rain and snow mix Friday night and Saturday morning with a front end snow across the north…
Put the European Model in the front end snow camp as well…
I still think many areas go over to a cold rain on Saturday with a switch back to light snow Saturday night. Snow showers and squalls kick in for Sunday. That said… I’m not sure any of the models are handling Saturday night and Sunday very well.
After that, it’s time to watch for systems dropping in from the northwest. The Canadian shows a nice little system by Sunday night…
One of these may try to develop into a potent snow maker across the Ohio Valley and the eastern US. The European Ensembles show one of these really digging in on Tuesday…
Looking farther down the road toward the weekend before Christmas, we find this setup on the Euro Ensembles…
As I said… winter is just getting started. Make it a great day and take care.
For a lot of us it really has never started- at least from the snow standpoint. Glancing blows to the state from the left, top and right. It is what it is though. All CB can understandably do is call it like he sees it.
Hey at least there is a couple of chances for the clipper system you have been talking of. Here in Lou at least the snow comes over the river. We received about 3 inches Friday night, another 1.5 Sat. and 1 yesterday. Hopefully all of KY gets in on the next few systems.
If this pattern keeps holding up I see big big ice storm for someone in the not to distant future..
Saw some long range maps yesterday showing bitter cold on Christmas Day for the midwest. If we can get a thumping snow ‘tween now and then, this would be a December to remember!
long range for us on Christmas has temps in the 50s …. where is blowtorch dude when you need him ?
Ain’t the blowtorch dude but what about this…It’s gonna be a “Furnace” for Christmas…Good time to stay inside and pull the shades and don’t look out until Jan. or drive around with arm hanging out window…
Guessing that the ‘blowtorch’ guy may have been shown the exit. If so, thanks CB!
There should be nothing against honest tactful dialog which has genuine disagreements. But stirring up a hornet’s nest for the sake of stirring up a hornet’s nest has no useful purpose on a message board, especially when being as condescending and contradictory as this person was.
really ??? I never heard him/her say anything condescending … they simply had their opinion, and it was that they felt it was going to warm up in January, WOW that’s really bad !!! I don’t like snow, I like spring and summer, so Mr. Mark, want me banned ? chill out man, people all have different mindsets, even Mets look at things different.
Apparently you missed some of Monday afternoon’s posts.
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=8247
Some key words/phrases: bloviate, MODELS (in upper case), don’t feed the troll
The main points in my post still stand, including that one can disagree without being disagreable or trollish. No, of course no one should be banned only because of a difference of opinion; that is a straw man that you are constructing.
CB can more than speak for himself and he of course makes the final call on running his list. But he has an excellent record of letting people speak their mind. It might even be said that it takes a lot for CB to ban posters (although he has more important things to do than being a 24/7 moderator).
But CB has booted – and rightly so – a small handful of posters that kept crossing the line. This list is a better place because of this.
SAME STORY, SAME SONG! Cold now, but when moisture comes in, warm up to 35 and rain on most of CKY.
Again, I think that the KY RIVER is the strongest river in the world! Heck with the amazon or nile, its the KY River that has power!
We will get 2 inches probably from the Clipper late sunday early Monday…
THE COLD air though don’t do much for me without snow. I guess if your snow lovers and live from G-town north, be Thankful! Maybe I should move.
WHO DEY!
Your being awfully optimistic with your snowfall
Ohio river is a much bigger fence, 10 inch plus snows on the other side of that monster, while ky gets one or two inches??
Boone, Kenton, Campbell, has got their share already…but yes, Indiana side and ohio side gets more.
I disagree though, at least the ohio fence lets some snow in, ky river fence lets none in!
Indiana and Ohio will get hammered with snow this weekend while most of KY will have mostly rain, Ohio river Fence will be in play!
We’ve had 12.5″ of snowfall so far this year in Northern Kentucky at CVG. I don’t know what you all are talking about, its been an awesome start to winter up here! 😉 LOL
You are the minority, 95% of the state has had 3 inches or less so far!
Also Covington is as far north as south central Indiana?
Yes, the northern tip of Boone County, north of Hebron is a few miles farther north than downtown Cinci, and about equivalent to the south side of Columbus, IN or Bloomington, IN.
Probably, but again, I;ve seen trends ever since living in Richmond. You don’t have to be trained , just see trends and learn. The clipper will bring about 2 in. For CKY: The Friday sat, will start skiff of snow, rain 98% of the moisture, sat evening skiff of snow, then gone. Sunday snow squalls in Eastern mtns, maybe skiff in CKY, then early Monday clipper brings 2in for CKY.
Hey, your normally this pessimistic when the Bengals are losing 😉
I agree with you though.
Not sure what outlook people are looking at for XMAS, but the GFS has most of KY at zero degrees and some neg zero. No furnace or blowtorch here folks. Might warm up just before, but during and after is going to be quite bitter.
thanks for your work, Chris. it sure seems like more of a winter than the last few?
have a question for the mets/amateurs on here. i grew up thinking we got our best snows from the gulf. has that changed to a better shot with clippers?
thank you
I suppose the gulf system snows will return sooner or later. From a snow lovers perspective, our area has seemingly been unlucky with them (recall that back in early January 2011 when areas along the Tennessee/Alabama line got up to 16 inches from same storm that shut down Atlanta, yet most of Kentucky got little or nothing).
Unlike Gulf systems, clippers rarely give us more than ankle biter snows.
That’s the way its been for some time as it seems the last several yrs all systems from the south bring to much warm air.
thanks, Andy & TennMark
I wonder how many different ways you can say “it’s not going to snow”. Some people are dedicated to figuring that out I guess. And by the way, like Santa Claus, a “snow dome” does not actually exist. Just saying. 😉
Then explain the phenomena.
And by the way, what do you mean there’s no Santa Claus. 🙁
Now you really made me mad saying there’s no Santa Claus Chris do something with this dude…. Lol
Really Dude!?! You had to play the “no Santa Card”…when you stop believing, you stop receiving…maybe that’s what happened to all the snow…people like this guy don’t believe any more…just sayin!
I BELIEVE!!!!
Temps Overacheiving in Frankfort today up to 38, our little snow cover is not likening this, I guess a big chill with very little snow is on the way UGGGGGGG
Kind of unusual for the cold to cover so much of the country as it has been.
The normally mild California Valley has had several nights well below freezing (hope orange juice and wine prices don’t take a big jump) 🙁 . Even Death Valley dropped to 29 degrees the other night.
For now anyway, if you want warmth in the lower 48, go to Florida or south Georgia.
We need the jet stream to shift about 100 miles further south to get KY in a good storm track for southern system snow!
Chris see what you can do about this please 😉
This mostly rain stuff then a toe biter is getting old!
Weather geeks should check out the visible satellite today, it clearly shows how the snow pack goes around KY, Its depressing and interesting at the same time!
But remember there is no snow dome
Correct, it is a big a$$ fence.
As a snow geek, here’s a link I often use.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
We’ve had 12.5″ of snowfall so far this year in Northern Kentucky at CVG. I don’t know what you all are talking about, its been an awesome start to winter up here! 😉 LOL
There is an invisible snow fence that us northern Kentuckians put up and move around on you all to help us hog all of the snow that makes it across the Ohio River. Sometimes we put it up at Dry Ridge, sometimes its placed at the 71/75 split, and sometimes we share a bit with Louisville and keep it along 71 all the way down. HAHAHA! 😉
Funny, but really, Covington is the North Pole of KY, look at the state map, your weather is consistent with central Indiana and southern Ohio, so those stats you have up their are useless to most of the rest of the state, you will get missed by a big snow that goes south of NKY before the winters done 😉
Yes Todd, the odds are good that one will miss us to the south. Those are the ones that help get you up to your averages or better in good years. I was just poking fun at you all. I lived in Nelson County the first 18 years of my life, then about 7 more in Lexington before moving to Burlington in 2002.
The main difference is that if you all get a dusting or an inch, we’ll get several inches often. Thats how we get that extra foot of snow (average is somewhere between 21″-23″).
I’m hoping you all cash in soon, in the meantime I still chech Chris’s blog.
Absolute Vorticity is a great free weather forum for those that are true weather geeks and it has an Ohio Valley Forum that many from NKY, SW OH, and SE IN participate in. It would be good to get a few more central KY people on it, as we have folks from Cleveland, Columbus, and Indy involved in our discussions. They are always posting links to Chris’s blog at AV.
http://www.absolutevorticity.com
All good, this is what makes the blog fun, sometimes the eastern mountains get hammered and the rest of the state is left out, I have family in Owen county 25 miles to the north of frankfort that gets much more snow most years than my area, its all about location with most winter storms and the north half of KY usually wins the snow total trophy!
Haha! I love posting pictures of my snow on Facebook. It simply drives my snow loving friends and family around Louisville and Lexington crazy. 🙂
We even crept above freezing today and started to melt on our snowpack. We had a good 4 inches or more around lunch, probabably lost a bit, and in areas where my dog / birds (from a bird feeder) have been walking around it went to bare ground. Overall probably still a good 3″ on the ground.
Frankfort has maybe an inch, mostly is shady areas facing the north, but here’s to lots of snow statewide to come!
Well I recorded this with my smart phone outside my front door in northwest Lexington last winter – at least I’m pretty sure it was last winter. I think it snowed three inches but it was like a blizzard for a while.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpglqUf_gJA
COOL, we want that for about 12 hours this year!
I’m cautiously optimistic about the rest of the winter for a few reasons.
First, the SST anomalies in the Pacific are favorable for cold. The very warm pool of anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska implies ridging which should send a trough into the mid and eastern US.
Second, the central Pacific features cold anomalies in the eastern part and slight warming in the 3.4 region. That combination usually produces cold and stormy eastern US.
Third, there may be a stratospheric warming event that is taking place over Eurasia. That usually precedes blocking by a few weeks. Remember what happened in February and March last year after one took place.
Fourth, the JMA, which nailed the December pattern over the US, shows the trough shifting slightly east for the month. In December, it showed the trough more to the west and a stronger southeast ridge. That’s pretty much what we’ve had.
I’m probably jinxing things, though.
All those maps makes one almost giddy with excitement! Only problem is, here in Somerset, we always get in on the cold rain part, but rarely on the snow part. Even Monday night, we were in the good spot for snow, and we barely got an inch at my house. Go figure. Ah well, one of these days, we are all gonna get a good one, and we will all sit back and enjoy! At least this meteorological winter has started off as winter, and not as a prelude to spring or fall..so far.
Thank you, Chris, for all you do and for keeping us updated. I look forward to reading the blog on a daily basis, to get your thoughts, and see what others are thinking as well. (those other weather weenies, like me.) 😉 Have a great Hump day, everyone! Stay warm, and say safe!
I enjoy your post coffee lady, you always have a positive spin on things, we should all follow your lead!
Once again the warm air wins out. Fence along Ohio River. Happened time after time over the past 15 years. Here in Lou. we are the ones that generally ride the fence. Can drive over the second street bridge and it be snowing mid way through. Stop turn around and it will be raining. I just Love cold rain and 33 degrees!
More warmth with yet another southern system. And worthless backside snows. Ho hum, here we go again. The blowtorch rules.
Really? Show me some data that says this autumn/winter has had “blowtorch warmth?” Autumn was BELOW normal in temps–winter is around normal but will go below soon. And for the record, every major climate reporting station (I know, some places haven’t had it) are ABOVE normal in snowfall for season to date. I had 15 degrees at my house this morning. Colder than any morning I had in 2011-2012, a true BLOWTORCH winter where the only snow came from a freak clipper in Early March.
you all crack me up!! I feel ya though!
Chris mentioned 50 degree weather for next week, how does that go with winter not letting up head line post?????
Just asking??
Because as he said if you listened he isn’t sold on that yet and 2 weeks away and may only be for a couple days.
Ok, thanks
Oh, and by the way, just watched a Louisville met say a major warmup midweek next week, and then cold DRY Christmas week, so a warmup seems to be in the way!
What me you listening to! BG Wave shows chance for snow the days leading into XMAS. As a matter of fact if you watch his video blog he calls for a HIGH Pressures system in the MIDWEST with a southeast ridge over FL. This steers all storms over the TN/OH Valleys and up the Apps. Not saying going to happen, but the cold will be here.
I’ll happily take 50’s….hopefully it won’t be coupled with rain….
that would be breaking the winter rule temps above freezing =rain 😉
A couple of other major weather sites are showing highs around the 50 degree range from December 17th through the middle of January.So unless something changes we will likely see a rather warm Christmas and New Years Day.
Even with this next chance of snow it looks as if most of Kentucky will be a rainy event.
When I was a child in the 60s we use to get some big ones back then but they have gotten less and less frequent in recent years.Its nice to have a big snow once in awhile but we are probably blessed not to have had the big snows.The fun part of it wears off real quick if it lingers for days or causes damage.
Not impressed with December at least where I live (knox co.) . Just a dusting of snow so far and nothing promising in the long range outlook. It’s been cold, but nothing historic I wouldn’t think. Maybe January will be better. Just hope winter doesn’t try to show up in March and April like last year.
You mean to say he’s predicting Christmas week weather with accuracy from this far out. You sir are a comedian.