Kentucky Weather Center

Good Friday to one and all. We have come to the end of another active week of weather across the bluegrass state. The past week has been fairly wild with everything from severe thunderstorms to ice. This winter stinks for snow lovers… but it sure isn’t lacking in the interesting department.

Colder air is filtering into the region today as our big rain maker works to our northeast. The air may be just cold enough for a little bit of rain and snow mix early today for a few areas. Temps should fall into the upper 30s and low 40s early and hold nearly steady all day long. Follow the precipitation and temps by clicking on the radar and current conditions links at the top of the page.

We have a couple of fast-moving systems set to impact our weather this weekend. The first arrives on the scene early Saturday with gusty winds and a line of rain and snow showers zipping through. There could be a touch of some sleet with this one. Here’s how the GFS sees this…

Temps will spike into the upper 30s ahead of this fast-moving front and then drop a few degrees once it swings through here.

Another fast mover will be inbound on Sunday and will bring more gusty winds and a few snow showers and flurries. The best chance to pick up a small accumulation would be across the north and northeast… especially later in the day. The GFS shows this region as being closest to the main shield of light snow…

We will see temps begin to mild up for the first half of next week with 50s likely again by Tuesday. This will be ahead of another system that works in with some rain for the middle of the week.

The end of next week is showing some signs of trying to get a storm going across the east. The GFS has been locked onto this for a few days now…

The European Model has something similar trying to cut off around here into next weekend…

Yes, I know how this winter is going and how the chance of that actually working out in our favor is low. I get it… but this is a weather site and looking ahead is what we do.

Have a great Friday and take care.

Good evening, my friends. Heavy rain is engulfing much of the state this evening and this could bring high water issues for some areas. Central and eastern Kentucky remains under a FLOOD WATCH through the overnight hours.

Here’s a look..

I wish the western part of the watch area hadn’t been trimmed away, as I do think they get heavy rain this evening.

We do have a couple of things working in our favor this evening. 1. The fast movement of the system. 2. Thunderstorms across the deep south interrupting some of the moisture supply. Regardless… we need to keep an eye on our streams this evening and overnight.

Don’t forget to check the radars and tracking tools at the top of the page.

Colder air works in overnight and early Friday and the rain MAY end as a bit of a mix across the east Friday morning.

Our weekend will feature systems working through the state. The first arrives on Saturday and shows up well on the NAM…

That looks almost like a line of rain and snow showers working through here with a touch of sleet possible. Winds will be gusty and temps will drop quickly as the line moves in.

The next bad boy dives in here later Sunday and has a nice little twist showing up on the NAM…

This will be another windy system with an increase in afternoon and evening snow showers and flurries. Temps may spike into the mid 30s early then come crashing down later in the day. You can also see a bit of a curve on the maps above and that means this system may ramp up a bit more.

Ok… that’s all I have for you guys right now. Have a great evening and take care.

Good Thursday everyone. A strong system across the gulf is going to roll our way later today and bring a ton of rain with it. This will cause heavy rain and thunderstorms to break out for many areas into tonight, leading to the potential for flooding. A FLOOD WATCH is out for much of central and eastern Kentucky into early Friday.

The pipeline of moisture is going to deliver a 1″-3″ rainfall for many areas during this time. The GFS shows a wide area getting in on the act…

The NAM is similar but a little more concentrated with the axis of heavy rain…

Either way… the threat for flooding is on the increase this afternoon into tonight across many areas. We will also have to keep an eye on the river levels as many of them are already running on the high side.

Don’t forget to track the heavy rain by clicking on the radar, currents and we cam links at the top of the page.

The rain will slowly work out of here on Friday as colder air sweeps in from the northwest. This air isn’t all that cold, but may produce a touch of a mix or melting snow before things shut off. The NAM shows the possibility…

Colder air then bleeds in over the coming weekend. We have one system working across the Ohio Valley on Saturday that should be able to generate a light mix fo rain and snow as temps should run 35-40 for most. A strong front arrives early Sunday and will have a bigger push of cold air behind it. Temps shouldn’t rise much on Sunday from the upper 20s and low 30s we wake up with. I do expect some snow showers and flurries around along and behind this front.

Let’s keep our eye on the short-term and the possibility of high water. This system has a lot of moisture with it and I’m concerned we may be in the thick of a high water event tonight and early Friday. I will have updates as needed and be using twitter for quick updates.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

Good Wednesday everyone. We’re into the middle of the work week and our weather is about to take on a much different look as heavy rain overspreads the state. This rain will also come with another steep temperature spread from north to south and will usher in more of a wintry look and feel for the coming weekend.

Low pressure across the gulf states will continue to develop and slowly inch closer. This means an increase in moisture streaming in from the southwest. This is a juicy system that should put down a good 1″-2″ of rain for a lot of areas. The rain numbers from the GFS back that up…

The heaviest rain will fall Thursday into Thursday night and… wait for it… wait for it… some areas may hear a rumble of thunder. Shocked? Nah… me either.

The temp gradient today into Thursday looks to be fairly robust from northwest to southeast. Take a look at the GFS…

Upper 30s and low 40s in the north and west and 50s in the southeast. The NAM is much more pronounced with this temp swing…

The colder air in the north means we have to watch the leading edge of the precipitation moving in later today and this evening. It could start out as a bit of a mix for a few areas. This shows up well on the GFS…

The rain looks to slowly pull away early Friday and may end in the form of a mix as the colder air bleeds in from the northwest. There should be a break in the action later Friday into early Saturday before some overrunning precipitation tries to break out on Saturday.

This is ahead of an arctic front that arrives Saturday night. The GFS shows a swath of some light snow with snow showers and squalls possible Sunday…

The Canadian Model is very similar and would give us the chance to put a little snow on the ground in some areas before the weekend is over. As always… we shall see how it plays out.

Don’t forget to hit the tracking pages at the top of the blog. Radars, current conditions and cams are all there. Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Good Tuesday evening, folks. I haven’t had much time today to look at a whole lot of what’s going on, so I’m playing a little catch up. I still wanted to drop by for some quick thoughts on what’s going on.

- The NWS in Paducah confirms another tornado touch down in western Kentucky Sunday night. This was an EF-0 twister with 80mph winds that hit Todd County. This brings the Kentucky tornado count to 6 for this young year.

- Heavy rain threat still looks on target from late Wednesday through Thursday. Many areas should pick up an inch or two of rain.

- I am not one to trust computer models very much and I’m really not trusting them with what they show for Friday into the weekend. They look funky. I will have to dig into them more in depth a little later and have a full update overnight.

Have you guys seen this?

That’s what the sun looked like recently and it produced the biggest solar radiation storm since October 2003.

This may impact power systems, spacecraft and aircraft operations and migratory animals.

This means we have an outside shot at seeing the northern lights tonight. If you are lucky enough to catch them… take a pic and we’ll show it off.

Have a great evening and take care.

Good Tuesday everyone. We have some big weather news to share with you guys. Are you sitting down? Today is actually a calm weather day across Kentucky!! I don’t know what to do with myself and am having tweet withdrawal. Let’s not get too used to the pleasant weather of today as we have a surge of heavy rain coming our way and this should transition into a wintry weekend.

Before we look ahead… we did have another tornado hit Kentucky Sunday night. The NWS in Paducah confirms an EF-1 tornado touched down in Calloway county. It had winds of 95mph and was on the ground for nearly 5.6 miles. This makes the 5th tornado to hit the state in the first 3 weeks and change of 2012. That’s just amazing!

The weather of today looks good with readings mainly in the 40s under partly sunny skies. This should be the best day of the next week or so.

A very slow-moving area of low pressure will develop across Texas over the next few days. This will throw an increasing amount of moisture our way from Wednesday through Friday. Light rain will arrive from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. The leading edge of this has the chance to start out as something frozen… especially along and north of the Ohio River. That doesn’t look like a big deal if it happens.

The bigger issue from late Wednesday into Thursday will be the threat for heavy rainfall. This has the look of a widespread 1″-2″ rain maker, with locally higher amounts. The GFS is looking soggy…

This thing is loaded with juice and could cause high water problems for some areas.

What happens behind this storm as it begins to pull away on Friday? The models are still trying to figure that much out, but there should be colder air coming in behind it with a switch to snow possible. The GFS is advertising this…

The model may be a little too quick with getting the low that far north. The GFS Ensembles average is for a slower departing low…

That will be something for us to keep an eye on as many of the models have advertised a switch to snow for a while now.

That sets us up for a wintry weekend across the state. An arctic front arrive late Saturday into early Sunday and carves out a hefty little trough. I like the look of this system as I think it can dive in and try to cause low pressure to develop just to our east. If that were to happen… this would give us a decent shot of snow. That’s a big IF at the moment, but is something to watch for in the coming days.

The GFS is hinting at that solution and the Canadian is looking the part, too.

We have a lot of weather to go through before we get to that point. I will have updates later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Good Monday evening to one and all. Your friendly weather dude is drinking a lot of coffee today to try and recover from a long weekend of tracking wild weather. Sleep is for the weak.

We do have some changes in the overall pattern later this week into the weekend. Things are taking on a wintry look with much colder air surging in with a couple of snow chances.

The GFS Ensembles remain rather bullish on all this…

That basically shows low pressure working out of the deep south and turning the corner up the east coast on Saturday. Cold air crashes in with some snow on Saturday then another shot at snow Saturday night into early Sunday as an arctic front dives in from the northwest.

The European Model has the first low a little farther to the east, but does show the arctic front and snow with it…

We have a few days to watch all this and will fine tune the forecast as we get closer. But, the weekend does have potential to bring a couple of rounds of snow to the state.

Time to pour another cup of java. Have a great evening and take care.

Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for all the reports and tweets from last night’s severe weather event across the state. You guys rock and show the rest of the weather world how its done! I wanted to drop by for some quick thoughts on where we go from here.

- Winds will continue to crank up this afternoon and may reach 40-50mph at times in the central and east.

- Things finally begin to calm down overnight into Tuesday.

- Slow moving upper level low across the south will throw rain our way for Wednesday into Thursday.

- A deep trough will be digging into the central and eastern part of the country late week into the weekend and will bring winter back in.

- What kind of interaction will we get from our southern system and the trough digging in? Some models suggest not much , while others show the two getting together with a storm working up the east coast. The Canadian is in this camp…

- Even if there isn’t a big storm… that’s a pattern to get a few snow systems diving in from the northwest.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

Good morning. A new SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS now out for much of central and eastern Kentucky until 9am. A squall line of thunderstorms continues to work eastward across the state with damaging winds the main threat. An isolated tornado and large hail are also possible.

Here’s a look at the watch outline…

This map allows you to track the current warnings…

I will update things as needed and continue to tweet the latest warnings. Take care.

Good Monday morning. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is now out for parts of central Kentucky until 5AM CST. Here’s a look at the counties included in the watch…

A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to work eastward overnight into early Monday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with hail and isolated tornadoes possible. Follow along with the latest warnings…

I will have updates as needed and will continue to blow up your twitter feeds with new information and warnings. Don’t forget about the radars, current conditions and weather cams up top and keep posting the weather where you live.

Take care.