Time posted: 6:52 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We’re putting the wraps on another cold day in the bluegrass state, with a few flakes still flying. This action may increase a bit over the next few days as a couple of systems roll our. That sets the stage for a fun weekend of weather across the bluegrass as another winter storm impacts our weather.

Let’s start with a weak front dropping in later tonight and early Wednesday. This front will touch off scattered snow showers across parts of the region. Some local accumulations are possible once again.

The next system then arrives on Thursday in the form of a weak low pressure working west to east across the state. That one brings mainly rain, but we are seeing a bit colder solution coming into play. This is likely because the models are just now sensing the deep snow pack across the Ohio Valley. Keep that in mind for the weekend storm.

Watch how the HI Res NAM produces snow showers tomorrow, then has some snow with the Thursday system across the north…

The NAM is also spitting out a little snow over the next few days…

The GFS isn’t seeing as much moisture with this system and this seems to be an ongoing problem with the model all of a sudden. It totally misses any snow shower tomorrow, but has a touch of snow in the far north on Thursday…

As we get closer to this system, the models are growing colder because they are likely seeing the cold front the snow pack. That’s something we will need to watch for this coming weekend as an arctic front settles in here. It’s along that boundary we are likely to get low pressure, or a couple of lows, to roll.

One low is likely to roll into the state Saturday and then weakens to the northeast. At the same time, another low is going to try to pop to our southeast Saturday night and early Sunday. This scenario would bring heavy rain that can cause flooding issues on Saturday. As arctic air crashes in, some freezing rain to snow would take over Saturday night and Sunday morning, with snow showers and squalls around the rest of Sunday.

The European Model still shows the most freezing rain before the switch…

The Euro is a little slower than earlier runs with the arctic air crash, and I think it’s too slow…

To be honest, it would not surprise me if that sharp temperature gradient sets up farther south than that or farther south than what any model says. If that happens, our low tracks farther south. This is actually showing up on a couple of viable computer models today. The UKMET has a very good skill score, but doesn’t get used a lot because it’s tough to access good graphics from it. The following map is showing the 500mb pattern and the surface setup. Look where the low is Sunday morning…

The JMA has the surface low in Virginia…

Again, those models may be seeing the cold from the snow pack a little better. This is something for us to watch closely in the coming days. This is the same reason all these “milder” forecasts for the past few days have not panned out from the models…. The snow pack is keeping things colder.

I’ll be back tonight to talk more about that and any other random things that pop into my head. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 12:22 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s hoping each of you are having a beautiful day in he neighborhood. I don’t have a lot of time, but I’m dropping by to give you a quick update then will send you a bigger update this evening.

Our system this weekend continues to look VERY dynamic with heavy rain, high winds, freezing rain, snow and a dramatic temp drop. How it all unfolds remains to be seen and it’s way too early for specifics for any one location.

Before that, we get in on two systems. One is a weak front dropping in early Wednesday with a few snow showers. The other is a fast-moving low working due east with a mainly cold rain. That may still start and end with some frozen precipitation, especially in the north…

That system leaves a boundary behind and where that sets up is where your low goes. I continue to think this puts down enough rain on Saturday to cause local flooding issues across the state. 2″-3″ of rain will be possible before the temps crash and the precip goes to a period of freezing rain then snow. A strong northwest wind with arctic air for later Sunday is likely to produce a major snow shower and snow squall outbreak.

The GFS has the theme correct, but it just cannot crank out enough precipitation in any area of this storm. It did the same thing last weekend. Moral of the story, there will be more moisture than what the model shows for the entire storm system, not just for our region…

The Canadian has a much more realistic precipitation depiction for this event. Also, notice the second low it pops to the southeast of us on Sunday…

The snow map from that run…

All model forecasts like that will change from run to run and run to model. It’s all about how they handle the arctic boundary and low pressure.

The Weather Prediction Center has our region in a slight risk for 4″+ snows this weekend, with northern Kentucky with a little better shot…

Again, that’s from the WPC and not me, but it’s worth noting. Think of that as being similar to the SPC risk areas for severe thunderstorms.

Temps with this system may be near 60 on Saturday then drop into the single digits at some point Sunday, with even lower wind chills. For areas getting snow or ice on the ground, temps by Monday morning make a run at a big old goose egg!

High winds of 40mph of higher will also be noted Saturday and Saturday evening as the cold air crashes in.

Ok, so I wrote more than I thought I would. I’ll see you guys after my dentist visit… Maybe. 🙂 Make it a good one and take care.

55 Comments