Winter Storm Update

Good evening,gang. It’s full steam ahead toward another major winter storm ready to blast the entire state of Kentucky. This will bring the potential for flooding rains into early Wednesday followed by significant amounts of snow and sleet late Wednesday through Thursday. The majority of the heavy snow falls Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Here’s a look at my latest call for snow and sleet…

SpecialThe latest GFS looks very, very close to what I have…

GFSThe European Model is similar, but shows even higher totals…

EuroThe latest from a couple of the NWS offices…

NWS Louisville NWS Paducah

119 out of 120 counties in Kentucky are under a Winter Storm Warning…

I really don’t have the time or the words to rip the NWS in Charleston like I want, but that map pretty much does the job for me. Just awful.

Don’t shortchange the high water potential tonight into early Wednesday. Heavy rain is a good bet and that could lead to some flooding issues along area creeks and streams and then some minor river flooding. A FLOOD WATCH continues for the entire area…

A brand new call for snowfall comes tonight at 11pm on WKYT-TV. Take care.

163 Comments

Major Winter Storm On The Way

Good afternoon, folks. We have another major winter storm that is getting ready to pound the bluegrass state with significant amounts of sleet and snow. The closer we get to this system, the more impressive it’s looking and the greater the chance it turns into a “shutdown storm” for many.

The latest runs of the computer models are really amping up the moisture even more with this system and have a slower departure time on Thursday. With that in mind, here is a fresh call for snow and sleet…

Special 2

Most of the accumulations start from northwest to southeast late Wednesday afternoon and then REALLY kick into high gear Wednesday night and Thursday.

Significant amounts of sleet continue to look likely and that would cut down on the true snow totals. Areas that have less sleet can easily top a foot of snow before this wraps up on Thursday.

The lift with this is rather impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear reports of thundersnow or thundersleet during the height of the storm.

I continue to like what the GFS is cooking for snow and sleet…

GFS

GFS Snow 2

The latest “worst case scenario” from the Weather Prediction Center was issued before the latest amped up runs…

WPC

Again, snow totals where you live are directly tied to the amount of sleet that falls. The more sleet, the lower the totals. The less sleet… look out.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will update things again later today. I strongly suspect Winter Storm Warnings will be issued shortly…

Take care.

273 Comments

Winter Storm ALERT

Good Tuesday, everyone. A triple whammy of a winter storm is on the way to the bluegrass state. This will bring us the potential for flooding, significant sleet and snow accumulations and possible record cold temperatures. March is certainly bringing some serious weather right out of the gate!

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

A warm front lifts northward across the state today and will bring a brief spike in temperatures. A light mix and some light rain will be possible early today before the milder air gets in. A few gusty showers will be possible into the evening hours as temps rise well into the 50s.

I have no changes to the setup for Wednesday and Thursday. Our arctic front drops into the region with some heavy rain ahead of it early in the day. That could lead to some local high water problems. This does not look like a major flood event.

Arctic air will ooze in from west to east changing the rain to heavy sleet and snow during the day into the evening. Significant accumulations are likely through Thursday morning. Here’s a look the general outline for amounts…

SPECIAL

I will get more specific with the totals later today as the storm comes into better focus. With the combination of sleet and snow falling, it will be tough to pinpoint exact amounts. Areas that are mainly snow will EASILY push double digits. Areas with more sleet than snow will wind up on the low side of the scale. Either way… this is a very high impact winter storm.

I still like that the GFS is doing in terms of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Here’s the latest snowfall map…

GFS Snow

Sleet

GFS Snow 2

Freezing Rain

GFS

This will be a major winter storm that slams the region over the next few days.

The cold coming behind this for Thursday into Friday is nothing short of amazing to see on the models. Single digit lows are almost a given, with many models showing zero or below. The GFS goes crazy with Friday morning lows…

GFS Temps

That is likely on the extreme side, but shows you just how wild this week of weather really is.

Updates will come your way later today. Until then, I leave you with some tracking toys…

Have a great day and take care.

270 Comments

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our developing winter storm continues to target the bluegrass state in the coming days. Heavy rain and possible flooding will give way to the potential for significant snow and ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday.

A Winter Storm Watch and a Flood Watch are out for much of the state…

Here’s the latest information from the Weather Prediction Center…

Tuesday Night-Wednesday

WPC

Wednesday Night-Thursday

WPC 2The GFS seems to be getting a pretty good handle of this system…

GFS GFS 2With the combination of sleet and snow, it makes pinpointing exact amounts tough. Here’s a very early First Call For Sleet and Snowfall…

SPECIAL 2

Still plenty of time to fine tune amounts as this system comes into better focus.

I will have a full update on WKYT-TV at 11pm.

Take care.

 

 

109 Comments

Winter Storm Threat

Good Monday afternoon, gang. A significant winter storm is likely to hit the bluegrass state Wednesday into Thursday. This could bring everything from flooding rains to heavy snow and sleet accumulations to our entire region.

I have no changes to the evolution of this expansive system. Heavy rain is likely ahead of an arctic front that sweeps in early Wednesday. Rainfall of 1″-2″ in a short amount of time will be possible and that would be enough to cause some flooding issues.

One thing working to help reduce the flooding risk is the arctic air surging in. That could help freeze some of the runoff, allowing our waterways a better chance to handle the rain. Still, be on guard!

The arctic front then slowly works across the state as waves of low pressure develop along it. There really aren’t going to be any trends to look for in this type a setup. The infamous “northwest trend” isn’t really applicable to this type a storm system.

This has the look of a significant snowstorm and sleetstorm for our region. The NAM (along with the European) continues to lead the way in forecasting both…

NAM NAM 2

The GFS has finally come around to something similar…

GFS Snow GFS Snow 2

The Weather Prediction Center continues to increase the risk for significant snow totals…

WPC

As you can see, significant amounts of snow and sleet are likely from Wednesday through the first half of Thursday. All of that may be falling on top of high water from the previous rains. With temps dropping into the teens from west to east late Wednesday… a significant ice up is likely underneath whatever snow and sleet falls where you live.

Temps on Thursday may not get out of the teens for highs with Friday morning lows possibly heading toward zero or below.

This has the potential to be a HIGH IMPACT winter storm that could cause more issues than what we had a few weeks ago.

I will have the latest on this system on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and have another update on here later this evening.

Take care.

233 Comments

From Flooding To A Winter Storm

Good Monday, everyone. As crazy as February was, the first week of March is going to try to top it. We have a series of systems set to impact our region through Thursday and that means a lot of wild weather. Flooding rains and thunder may give way to a significant winter storm across our region.

Let’s start with what we have out there today. Watch for icy roads early this morning as temps drop deep into the 20s. Refreezing may combine with some light snow and freezing drizzle to cause some travel issues.

A warm front will then lift northward across the region on Tuesday. Gusty showers will develop throughout the day as a storm system cranks to our west. That system works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong arctic front into the region on Wednesday.

Heavy rain and some thunder will be possible just ahead of this boundary. That will be the time to watch for the possibility of flooding. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible just ahead of the front and that would be enough to cause, at least, some local high water problems.

That same arctic front then slows down as it works to the southeast as waves of low pressure develop along it…

Special 2

That’s a great setup for significant amounts of snow and sleet from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley. The exact placement of this front will be the key on exactly how much of each falls and who gets in on the main action. The NAM only goes through Thursday morning but is all in on the snow and sleet…

NAM 3 NAM 2

The latest European Model indicates a similar swath of heavy snow and sleet…

Euro

A likely upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat comes later today.

Temps by Thursday morning may drop deep into the teens and not rise much at all during the rest of the day. If we can put snow and sleet down, temps by Friday morning will absolutely tank! Zero or below would be a possibility with clear skies and a snowpack. Record lows?

On a more somber note… today marks 3 years since the deadly tornadoes of 2012. Many of us were personally impacted by that fateful day that leveled towns such as West Liberty, Salyersville and East Bernstadt. The live blog we did that day still stirs up a lot of emotion when I go back and read it…  http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=2706

I will have updates later today. Take care.

146 Comments

Watching The Week Ahead

Good Sunday evening, folks. We have a very interesting week of weather ahead of us. It’s a period that looks increasingly likely to throw a winter storm in our direction. Wednesday and Thursday have the potential to be very wintry around here.

I’ve been highlighting this threat for a while, and the models are now beginning to settle in on the potential. The European Model from earlier today gave a nice smackdown sleetstorm and snowstorm to much of our region. The NAM only goes out through Wednesday night, but is also going strongly in that direction…

NAM

Now THAT is one heck of a look! A very slow moving arctic boundary with waves of low pressure riding along it could produce a ton of precipitation.

The GFS goes back and forth with what it wants to do. It is probably the moodiest model I’ve ever seen. The late afternoon run is picking back up on the potential and shows this for the pure snowfall…

GFS Snow

Again, the GFS is still trying to figure out the setup and that map does not include the sleet potential. As always, don’t take exact amounts and placement to heart from 3 days out.

The folks at the Weather Prediction Center are beginning to come to gripes with the potential for this system to develop. Here’s where they are showing the potential for 4″ or more of snow during the daylight hours Wednesday…

WPC

I’m not sure why the lines are so disconnected, but whatever.

Let’s what the overnight model runs bring.

Between now and then… watch for some icy roads later tonight and early Monday as temps drop into the 20s. Some areas of freezing drizzle and light snow will try to develop during this time.

Tuesday into Tuesday night will see temps spike briefly. That will bring the potential for heavy rain producing showers and some rumbles of thunder.

See you back here for a full update late tonight. Take care.

 

56 Comments

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another ugly weather day in the bluegrass state. A chilly rain is combining with low clouds to usher in March with a case of the “blahs”. As we head into the first full week of the month, big temp swings, heavy rain and another shot from Old Man Winter are on the way.

A modified arctic front moves in tonight and knocks our temps well below freezing with some very light snow or flurries for a time. Readings dropping through the 20s = slick travel developing from refreezing. Keep that in mind if you’re going to be travelling into early Monday.

Temps begin to increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts to our north. Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet and that could cause some local high water issues.

We have a strong arctic cold front moving in on Wednesday and that will spawn a couple of waves of low pressure along it. The timing of the front in relation to these low pressure system will be the determining factor between more heavy rain and healthy winter storm.

Most of the modelling is leaning toward the winter solution with the waves of low pressure developing just to our east and southeast then riding along the front. The European Model continues to be super duper impressed with this setup and is spitting out a TON of winter precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night. This map isn’t JUST as snow map and likely incorporates a lot of sleet into the mix…

Euro 2

Again… that is NOT a pure snowfall map and it’s only one run of one model. It’s important to look at the trends of the models and the overall setup. That setup, to me, is one that is likely to produce a swath of significant winter weather across our part of the world.

We have a few days to watch and see how this thing sets up.

The cold coming in behind whatever we get from that is impressive. The European Model…

Euro

If I could find my white flag in all the snow still on the ground… I would wave it.

Take care.

57 Comments

Wild Weather Swings On The Way

Good Sunday, everyone. March is off and running with a wintry mix and light rain across our part of the world. This is a sign of things to come for the week ahead as we have a little of everything on the way. This is all courtesy of a wild temperature ride on the way for the first week of March.

Our morning wintry mix and snow may cause some travel issues across the northern parts of the state. That’s where temps will struggle to get into the low and mid 30s today. Areas across the south and west will hit the 40s with a few showers around.

Those numbers will come down for Monday as a cold front swings through here. Here are the highs…

GFS Temps

That could be accompanied by some early day snowflakes.

The next storm system cranks up to our west later Tuesday and that brings us a better chance for showers and some thunder. The models continue to come in with lower rainfall numbers, but some local high water issues would be possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

That’s also the period we are likely to see a nice temp spike and an even bigger temperature crash. Check this out…

GFS Temps 2

That would be your standard 30-40 degree temperature drop as an arctic front sweeps through here. That front is likely to have another wave of low pressure along it and that could produce a swath of decent winter weather somewhere across our region. The European Model…

Euro

That’s a setup to watch closely in the coming days.

High temps behind that system by Thursday are super cold for early March…

GFS Temps 3

Highs of 30 degrees below normal? That’s impressive.

I will have updates later today. Until then, let’s track…

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Take care.

28 Comments

A Wild First Week Of March On The Way

Good Saturday, everyone. February is closing out on a frigid note and that comes as a shock to absolutely no one. This has been a legendary month of winter weather across the bluegrass state. What about the start of March? Things are looking wild as we have a TON of weather on the way over the next several days.

A series of storm systems will roll across the region starting Sunday and each of these will deliver a lot of different weather. Everything from freezing rain to rain to high water to thunder to snow and sleet will all be possible in the coming days.

We start to get the first system to throw precipitation our way later tonight and early Sunday. This will be in the form of a mix of freezing rain and rain with some snow possible in the north. All that may change to plain rain during the day Sunday, but go back to a mix or some light snow Sunday night and early Monday. That’s when temps drop again behind a front that sags southward through the region.

That front then slowly lifts to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. Overrunning moisture from this may be in the form of freezing rain to start the day. Here’s the NAM…

NAM

The GFS also shows the freezing rain…

GFS

Temps will BRIEFLY spike late Tuesday into early Wednesday. That’s when heavy rain and some thunderstorms could blossom across the region. It’s during this time we will have to keep watch on our waterways for the potential of high water issues developing.

A strong cold front will then swing in here on Wednesday as a wave of low pressure develops along it…

GFS 2

That scenario has been showing up with each and every run of the GFS in recent days. Most of the other forecast models have something similar. Here’s where the GFS spits out winter precipitation…

GFS Snow

Told ya there were a lot of possibilities on the table for next week. ;) Let’s sit back and see how many of them come to pass.

I have a busy day of events on tap, but will try to update at some point. I will be tweeting thoughts as needed.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

40 Comments