Time posted: 2:13 am

Local Flash Flood Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. We continue to track rounds of showers and storms across the region, with each storm cluster bringing the potential for flash flooding. These storms are part of a rather stormy setup that looks to be settling back in for the long haul.

In addition to the potential for, at least, local high water issues, a few of the storms may also be strong. Local high wind gusts are possible and the Storm Prediction Center has parts of the area in a low-end severe weather risk…

Those storms are along and ahead of an area of low pressure working into the Ohio Valley on Friday. That’s when we get in on threat for strong or, locally, severe storms…

Once again, torrential rains will give us the potential for flash flooding. Temps will be held in check over the next few days, with some areas not making it our of the 70s.

Scattered storms will be noted on Saturday, but we may find mainly dry times taking control. That won’t last long as another system brings showers and storms back in here for Sunday and Monday…

I have you all set to track today’s rounds of strong storms and heavy rains…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:27 am

Watching The Heavy Rain Threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. We are back into an all too familiar pattern as rounds of showers and thunderstorms target the bluegrass state for the foreseeable future. These rounds of storms will bring a lot of rain our way over the next week and change. In addition to the rains, the much cooler pattern we have been ‘hyping’ is also moving in. 😉

Our front continues to drop in from the north and will become stationary right on top of Kentucky, leading to the clusters of storms. The map from a few days ago is holding up well…

An area of low pressure develops along this front and rolls through the Ohio Valley later this week into the start of the weekend. That will really increase the rain and thunderstorm action that takes us into early next week…

GFS

Canadian

This is a setup that can cause several rounds of flash flooding across parts of Kentucky and surrounding states. Keep a close eye on creeks and streams when the storms roll in!

Check out the potent upper level trough moving in…

That leads to significantly cooler temps, just as the pattern has been suggesting for well over a week now. Temps may not get out of the 70s on a few occasions. Check out the below normal temps showing up into next week…

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Rounds Of Storms Kick In

Good Tuesday, everyone. Another active setup is developing and it will put the bluegrass state in the line of fire fore more showers and storms. These storms will come at us in waves this week and into the coming weekend, bringing a renewed heavy rain threat.

Let us begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will be back into the upper 80s and low 90s with the heat index feeling a few degrees toastier. Scattered showers and storms go up this afternoon and one or two will be strong. Here’s the latest low-end Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Showers and storms will increase on Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front gets to Kentucky and slows down, allowing for a few waves of low pressure to move along it. The end result will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky through the weekend…

Heavy rainfall is a very good likelihood, leading to the potential for local high water issues developing. Check out the European Model rain numbers through this weekend and into early next week…

Temperatures will come way down during this time.

I have you all set to do some Tuesday storm tracking…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:55 am

Stormy Times On The Way

Good Monday to one and all. Heat and humidity continue out there today, but the thunderstorm threat is about to take control of our pattern once again. Rounds of storms are on the way and may cause local high water issues as the weak wears on.

In addition to the stormy setup, I’m also looking long range toward fall and winter. Woot!

Scattered showers and storms will be floating around today into Tuesday, with rounds of storms waiting to kick into high gear starting Wednesday. That’s a setup that should last through the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

A front moves in and slows down right on top of the bluegrass state. That will combine with abundant moisture, some of it streaming from the western Gulf of Mexico, to create an environment conducive for rounds of storms to roll across our pat of the world…

This setup can give us a few strong storms, but it’s the heavy rain threat that is most concerning. Once again, we find ourselves in a pattern that can produce, at least, local flash flooding issues. The rain numbers from the GFS are impressive through the weekend…

This pattern may persist into the following week. Watch how the numbers jump even more if we add in week two…

As mentioned earlier, a few storms will flare up today and some of those may be strong and put down very heavy rains…

Many of the seasonal models are just now getting into the winter months, and I’ve been showing a few. The common theme of the various seasonal models is for a weak to moderate El Nino to develop well off the coast of South America. The farther west of South America, the better the chance for a cold winter in our region. Those same models are also showing a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was there back in the winters of 13/14 and 14/15, and was something we said would lead to some healthy winters around here, and both delivered the goods.

The latest JAMSTEC Seasonal Model shows our warm pool and El Nino developing for fall. Here’s the September-November average…

Watch the cold signal blossom across the country for the same time period…

Winter just now gets into the range of the JAMSTEC and it’s showing a contination of the GOA warm pool and the El Nino. Here’s the December-February average…

Watch how the model cranks the colder than normal temps from the southern plains through the eastern half of the country…

Regardless of what any seasonal model shows for actual temps and precipitation, we take them with a grain of salt. That goes without saying. That said, the takeaway from the models is the GOA warm pool and the El Nino placement. If those develop, our odds for an exciting winter increase.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Stormy Setup Returns For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day. Mother Nature is giving dads the gift of heat and humidity today. The toasty temps will continue into Monday, but rounds of showers and thunderstorms will target the state for much of the week ahead. It’s another stormy setup taking shape.

Temps today are in the upper 80s and low 90s for much of central and eastern Kentucky, with low and middle 90s in the west. Throw in the humidity and heat index values will be several degrees hotter. The west will be near 100 or a little better.

Isolated showers and storms may go up…

Monday will be another very toasty day with the potential for more in the way of scattered showers and storms cranking. That action will continue to increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That will be able to tap some tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is the area I’ve been highlighting for potential development and here is our system trying to get organized…

That system moves toward Texas and Louisiana, with the moisture potentially being drawn northward up the Mississippi River Valley and then into the stalling front in our region. That stalled front may have a few waves of low pressure rolling across the region…

The European Model is showing something similar, as is the test version of the GFS…

There’s even the chance for an upper level low to close off somewhere near our region. Regardless, unsettled weather looks to continue through next weekend into the following week.

There will be no shortage of storms this summer!

Have a great day and Happy Father’s Day. Take care.

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