Good Saturday and Happy 4th of July! The weather is always a big time player when it comes to Independence Day and this one is no different as showers and thunderstorms will try to rain on your fireworks. Let's get into it.

The recent chilly spell has been AMAZING! 4 days in a row now where temps have failed to reach 80 degrees across most of the area is a heck of a stat. I will be looking through the record books when I have to time to see when the last time that happened.

Now to today's holiday weather. The start of the day will feature clouds increasing across the state. Many areas are likely to see some sun into early afternoon and this will boost temps toward 80. That will mainly be the case across the south and east as that's the area likely to see the most sun. Thermometers to the north and west will struggle back into the 70s. Basically... temps today are all about clouds verses sun!

How about the rain chances? Well... they will be on the increase quickly from northwest to southeast later this afternoon into the evening hours. A cluster of showers and storms will develop to our northwest and will push our way and the timing of the heaviest rains and storms will be right around fireworks time for many areas. Take a look at the radar forecast from the NAM...



As you can see... the first half of the day looks pretty good with only some scattered stuff possible in the north. Then it goes downhill pretty quickly. Heavy rains and strong storms will be possible and you can track the showers and storms here...



Will we get any strong or severe storms? Possibly and you can follow the latest from the Storm Prediction Center here...



I am more concerned with the torrential rain threat this evening into the overnight and that's something the blog will be watching closely.

Sunday looks to be another cool day as morning showers and storms leave some clouds around that will keep temps down. There is a chance we see temps near Thursday readings. Tha NAM seems to think we will be cooler than that...

Sunday Afternoon


I will try to update the blog as needed today so make sure to check back. I will leave you with this...

Happy 4th of July and take care.

    

Good Friday everyone and welcome to the 4th of July holiday weekend. The weather has been anything but July like of late with one of the coolest starts to the month on record. Now that we are to the 4th... will thunderstorms spoil our fireworks fun? The blog has you covered.

Before we get to the weekend forecast... let's talk about the October air of the past few days. What we have been seeing out there has been pretty incredible. Record cool high temps are being handed out like candy on Halloween of late. Check out some of the records from Thursday...

Jackson 67    All time cool high for the month of July

Covington 70  Coolest July 2nd high on record

Ashland 71  Coolest July 2nd high on record

Louisville 71  Ties coolest July 2nd high on record

Lexington 72 Ties coolest July 2nd high on record

Folks... that is some wild and impressive stuff during what is normally the hottest month of the entire year! I am amazed the weather community is not making a bigger deal out of this than they are. I guess when you had mid to upper 80s forecast for this week... you probably would rather not draw attention to it.

This brings us to where we are today and that is the kickoff to the big holiday weekend. Unfortunately.. today looks like the best of the weekend as showers and storms will increase for Saturday and Sunday. Highs today will be much warmer but will still struggle to hit 80 in most areas. We should see more in the way of sunshine than in recent days so that's a plus!

Our 4th of July will begin with decent enough weather across much of the state. The radar will be lighting up with showers and storms for areas just to our northwest and these will be diving in by the afternoon and evening hours. The northern half of the state will see the highest risk for storms early on with that threat increasing into the south by the evening hours. Take a look at what the models are showing...

GFS 4th of July Evening


That map is not so good for folks hoping to see some fireworks displays across the area as it shows a cluster of rain and storms rolling through during the evening. I see no reason to disagree with it right now. Again... areas farther north will see the best threat for storms until later in the evening and overnight.

Temps on Saturday will be a tough call. There is likely to be a big spread with 70s north and 80s south.

The models also show more rounds of showers and storms rolling across the region into Sunday...

GFS Sunday Morning


NAM Sunday Morning


Saturday night into Sunday has my attention because it offers the possibility of some torrential rains and even some severe storms. This will be occurring on the nose of some very warm air trying to fight in from the southwest and this is usually a setup for heavy rainfall. We first started talking about this as a possibility last week at this time and the pattern continues to play out as we have been thinking.

If you are looking for some true summer heat... I have my eye on a ridge building across the plains by the end of next week. This may try to FINALLY bring us some hot temps!

The blog will be updated as needed through your holiday weekend so make sure you check back for the latest updates. Have a great Friday and take care.

    

    

Good Thursday everyone! Today is likely to be the last day at work for a lot of you as we head into the 4th of July holiday weekend. Everyone is hoping for good weather, but Mother Nature may have something else in mind. We have a lot to get to in this blog so let's get after it.

June is now in the books and it was an interesting month to say the least. We have several bouts of severe weather to go along with a whole lot of rainfall for many areas. Just how wet was it in relation to normal? Take a look...



Temps averaged on the warm side of with many areas finishing the month 1 to 2 degrees above normal on average. This was not a hot month by any means but it worked out nicely with the summer forecast I put out back in May.

Flip the calendar to the month of July and one of the coolest openings to the month on record. Highs Wednesday only hit the upper 60s and lower 70s in many areas. Impressive cool for this time of year and it has another day with us as highs today will hit the low to mid 70s yet again. There is a small chance for a shower of thunderstorm too.

Friday will see temps begin to warm some as we head toward 80 under mainly sunny skies. This will bring us to the all important 4th of July...



A chance for showers and storms is on the increase and I am not liking the look of the pattern right now for all the outdoor activities that will be going on. There is likely to be a cluster of rain and storms moving across the area during the day. This may bring some very heavy rains to some areas so keep that in mind. I am not comfortable at all with the temps for Saturday as we could end up being several degrees cooler that what I am showing. That is dependent on the amount of clouds and storms around.

A few more scattered storms is possible on Sunday with the threat for more showers and storms looming for early next week.

How about the rest of July? Take a look at one of CAS Forecast Model for temps and rain...




That is showing a good chance for cooler than normal temps around here for the month on average. My thoughts of a normal to slightly below normal temps month still holds.

Just for the heck of it, here is what the same model shows for the July-September period...



I will likely have a live, interactive blog for you guys tonight at 9. Get your questions ready!

Have a great day and take care.

    

Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for blogging with us! We continue to be in a very unsummer-like pattern across the eastern half of the country. You would have a hard time looking outside and guessing that today is the first day of July! We even had some big hail producing storms across some areas last night as the weather goes a little crazy on us for a few days.

Highs today will be even cooler than our upper 70s we had Tuesday. Many areas will stay in the mid to upper 70s and you can track the temps here...

Current Temps


Winds will be very gusty once again. Overall... this pattern is behaving almost exactly like the blog was forecasting from a week ago! Yes... we get one right every now and then. hahaha

The big cutoff low pressure across the lakes has little spokes of energy rotating around it. These little impulses will kick off scattered showers and storms. With the freezing level so close to the ground... hail is of concern! Some golfball sized hail fell in parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky very early this morning.

Watch the storms huff and puff with our radars...

For areas getting more clouds and scattered boomers today and Thursday... temps may actually have a very hard time getting out of the low 70s for highs! Impressive!

Looking down the road toward the 4th of July Weekend I see warmer temps and some scattered storms. Highs by the 4th will reach the low to maybe mid 80s with a few storms on the move. A better chance for storms will blow in Sunday into Monday as another cold front moves in. This will bring another round of very pleasant temps into the first full week of July.

Since I have a week off from work, I had a chance to head back to Lexington Tuesday to catch up with my old KYT crew. Here is "the gang" one year after I walked out of Bill and Barb's lives...



Yep... I can dress down with the best of them! hahaha

Have a great Wednesday and I will update things as needed.

    

Good Tuesday everyone and how about that Monday weather? I don't know about you, but the weather had me thinking about football season and the temps over the next several days will REALLY get me in the tailgating mood!  That doesn't take a whole lot, though.

Temps through the rest of the week will be even cooler with the potential for a 2-3 day stretch where some areas fail to get out of the 70s for daytime highs. That would be VERY impressive as we head into the 4th of July holiday weekend.

Temps today are likely to range in the upper 70s to near 80 for many areas. You can track the temps here...


Current Temps


With some colder air aloft... we will likely see more in the way of some clouds today and over the next several days. Those clouds may produce some scattered showers and storms with the best chance being in areas farther north closer to the low. Winds will be gusty as well... especially in the afternoon hours. Take a look at a map of the air upstairs....



You can clearly see the closed low sitting across the Great Lakes. That map looks like it is straight out of November or December to be honest.

That upper low will begin to pull away by the weekend as temps recover some toward the low and maybe mid 80s. The raw numbers from the GFS show Lexington's highest temps over the next 8 days at 83 degrees! As the warmer air fights in... we may get in on some scattered storms over the holiday weekend and that's something we will focus on a little more over the next few days.

If we continue to look at the overall pattern heading into next week... it really does not change a whole heck of a lot in the overall theme with a northwesterly flow...

GFS July 6th


Meh... summer is overrated anyway!

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

    

Good Monday everyone and welcome to a new week. It is a super busy week for many people as we say goodbye to June and hello to the 4th of July! It is hard to believe that we are already to our Independence Day! Seems like only yesterday we were talking about Easter weather. Time is flying my friends, so slow down and enjoy life!

It has been a while since we did the whole week ahead-lines thing so let's get crackin'...

1. Today looks like a VERY nice day with temps in the lower 80s under a mainly sunny sky! The other aspect of this being an awesome day is that it is the start of my vacation week away from work!

2. A much cooler period is in store from Tuesday through Thursday as a huge upper level low sets up shot across the eastern half of the country. This cooler period was first talked about here on the blog a week ago!

3. Just how cool can it get? The potential is there for a couple of days where highs stay well below 80. Any day that has a fair amount of clouds and showers and storms around could be considered chilly by mid summer standards!

4. It is likely to be a fairly breezy period as well.

5. With such cold air aloft and little spokes of energy rotating through the area... afternoon showers and storms will be possible. With the cold air close to the ground... some hail will be possible.

6. The warm temps will be fighting back in for our holiday weekend. This will like stir up some storm chances for your 4th of July.

7. The warm air may get smacked down once again by another cold front moving in by this time next week. Another shot of below normal air could be waiting in the wings!

8. I still cannot see a period of sustained heat into mid July. A day or two of 90 is not heat in July... it's called normal!

9. I plan on doing a live, interactive chat this week to take some questions from you guys. I am thinking Thursday evening right now and will let you know something definite so check back. I am also planning something BIG for the bloggers this fall!

Have a great Monday and take care.

    

Good Sunday... just dropping in for a quick update. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will be with us today and a few of those could be strong or severe... especially in the east. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked parts of the region for the threat for severe storms.

Here is their outlook map...



Damaging winds and large hail are the primary things to watch for... as usual. You can track the storms on radar...







Much cooler air is on the way for next week and I will have more on that later tonight. I will also update things as needed today depending on what the storms do.

Take care.

    

Good Saturday everyone! The weekend is starting off on a rather steamy note across the state, but do NOT get fooled by what your thermometer will be showing today. Some much cooler air is on the way in a few short days.

Today will be interesting to see just how high those temps can get. I do think many areas can get to 90 degrees but the wet ground will try to do everything it can to halt that. The hottest temps will be to the west where a heat advisory is out for western Kentucky. You can track today's temps through the good folks at Kentucky Mesonet...



Current Temps


Heat Index


A strong cold front arrives on the scene Sunday with showers and storms increasing through the day. We may see a squall line of severe storms developing along the front as it sweeps through later in the day. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area in a risk for severe weather...



Temps could really surge just ahead of the front moving in so keep that in mind. Once it blows through... temps will begin to come down for the upcoming week. An impressive cut off low pressure is likely to develop across the eastern US next week. You rarely see something like this during the summer months....

NAM 500mb Chart Tuesday Morning


Like I said... impressive! What does that mean for us? How about below normal temps and some afternoon or evening showers and storms that could produce some hail. Temps may not get out of the 70s for a few days and lows can dip toward the low to mid 50s for a morning or two. That is certainly not set in stone as it depends on exactly where the upper low sets up. Regardless... there should be no signs of real heat leading up the 4th of July!

The tropics are trying to come to life as we have a disturbance that may develop and take aim on the Gulf of Mexico into early next week. Here is the threat map from the Hurricane Center...



Before I leave you I want to share a couple of flood pics from this past Thursday's rounds of storms. The first pic is from  Dan in Lexington who took this great shot of the 17th hole at Andover...



That is what I call a water hazard! I used to live not too far from this and would ride my bike in that area.

The next pic is from our buddy Jason down in Waco in Madison County where more than 4" of rain fell Thursday. The result...



Thanks to everyone who takes the time to send pics to the blog. I can't get around to using all of them, but I appreciate all you do for us. We will be doing a storm report video program from you guys in the near future so get your camcorders ready!

I will have another update later tonight so check back. Stay cool and take care.

    

Good Friday afternoon gang and welcome to the weekend. As avid blog readers, you know that we always start the weekend a few hours earlier than most!

More showers and storms will likely fire up this afternoon and evening with severe weather and torrential rains a good possibility. Given that many areas picked up 2"-4" of rain Thursday into early this morning... we really have to be mindful of the flash flood threat. The severe weather threat is there too and the Storm Prediction Center has the entire state in the risk area. Here is their all around severe weather map...



The radars are back in all their glory to satisfy your storm tracking needs...








Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats today. We will likely see the storms go up all at once and then it is game on in terms of severe weather. I will go live with the blog if needed so make sure you check back for that.

A couple of other weather notes...

1. Saturday is going to be hot with temps approaching the lower 90s.

2. Another round of severe storms is possible Sunday.

3. Next week looks COOL! Big upper low parks itself nearby and that means our temps will be below normal. A couple of days next week may not get out of the 70s! All of this leading up to the 4th of July!!!

4. Same upper level low should also mean some afternoon thunderstorms try to go up. Hail producers?

5. Watch the Gulf of Mexico over the next week!

Have a great Friday and check back for updates. Take care.