Time posted: 2:07 am

Arctic Changes In The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. Some areas can get in on a flake or two early today, but the real winter weather arrives in the coming week. This pattern is locked and loaded with another big rain event that leads us into Arctic air and some snow chances.

As always, we start with the weather out there today…

A weak system is bringing some light rain that can mix with a few snowflakes from time to time. Today is just a damp, cold and dreary day across the Commonwealth. Temps range from the upper 30s and low 40s to the mid 40s west and south.

Another soaker of a system will move in here late Monday and Tuesday. This can drop another one inch or more across much of the state. Here’s the NAM…

nam

Notice how it’s not just Kentucky getting in on the rainy action. The Tennessee Valley into the deep south continues to hit the rain jackpot after months and months of drought. Bring it!

This is the time of year just about everyone wants to see cold and snow. It’s December and Christmas is 3 weeks away, so even many snow haters like to see some action for the holidays. Well… Old Man Winter is trying to deliver the goods.

An arctic front moves in here by Wednesday night and will unleash some very cold air for the second half of the week. This front will try to spawn a weak wave of low pressure along it, which could enhance a little band of light snow. The European continues to show this wave…

euro

The GFS is much faster with the arctic front and only has a few snow showers and flurries…

gfs

The truth is likely between the two, as always. Regardless, that’s a very cold shot of air on the way for the second half of the week.

That will last into next weekend, and that’s when we focus on another system working into the region…

gfs-2

That’s likely to travel across the Tennessee Valley instead of amplifying into a monster storm. Of course, that’s still several days out and we will see many model variations on strength and track in the coming days.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 3:04 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. This update is coming early because I’m heading out to the Fayette Mall to ring the bell for the Salvation Army. Also, my Cats just laid an egg on national TV… at home, so my mood is rather suspect at the moment.

Let’s get straight into it…

Nothing has changed with the system coming late tonight and Sunday. Nothing has changed with the heavy rain maker Monday night and Tuesday.

Nothing has changed with my thoughts on the arctic front arriving Wednesday night. We have to watch for a weak wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The Canadian shows this…

canadian

So does the European Model…

euro

That would mean a band of light snow behind the front with snow showers and some flurries behind it into later Thursday and Friday. This is some VERY cold air coming into the region. 850mb temps as low as -22c…

canadian-3

Highs in the low and mid 20s with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills make it feel much, much colder.

The stage is then set for another system to work in from the west and into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. That is usually a good snow track for our region. Here’s the Canadian…

canadian-4

The European Model is similar, but with a bigger storm…

euro-2

Taken verbatim, both of the above models put down heavy snow across the entire state. Again, that’s a week away so take any one solution with a grain of salt. That said, the signal is strong with this one.

Have a good one and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 1:55 am

Tracking A Big Change To Winter

Good Saturday, folks. If you’re a fan of winter weather leading up to Christmas, you have to love the pattern taking shape across the country. It’s one loaded with very cold blast, and the potential for several snow systems to threaten out region.

Let’s start with the weekend weather and roll forward.

Clouds are doing the rolling out there today, ahead of a storm system arriving late tonight and Sunday. This system will bring a chilly rain in here, with the potential for some snowflakes mixing in early on Sunday. Overall, Sunday looks like a dreary day.

The follow up system to this one will be much bigger and bring heavy rain back to the bluegrass state. This arrives late Monday and lasts into Tuesday…

gfs-4

That can bring another 1″+ rainfall to parts of the state. Winds will also be gusty as that low works across the area.

Once this storm goes through, here comes the arctic front! This looks to arrive later Wednesday or early Thursday with high winds, a band of snow and a MAJOR temperature crash…

gfs

We are still going to have to see if an arctic wave develops along that boundary. If it does, it would certainly enhance the chances for accumulating snows. The European Model continues to be more robust with that scenario…

euro

With such cold air and a strong northwesterly flow, you’ve got to like the chances for snow showers and flurries all the way through Friday night.

Highs for Thursday and Friday should be in the low and mid 20s with gusty winds making it feel much colder. The new European Model suggests some areas have a hard time getting out of the upper teens on Friday…

euro-2

Low temps will drop into the 10-15 degree range with single digit wind chills very possible. Ouch!

The GFS has had some amazing looking runs over the past few days. The overnight run shows the waves of very cold, arctic air diving into the region over the next few weeks. Check this out…

gfs

Each cold shot as a potential winter weather maker with it. Here’s the first one showing up next weekend. The European is impressed with this…

euro-3

The GFS is also seeing it…

gfs-2

You can see the next one already coming into California. That rolls eastward a few days later…

gfs-3

And this run of the GFS shows a carbon copy of a system a few days after that…

gfs-4

Now, that’s just one run of the GFS over the next few weeks. You know how this works, it’s fun to look at, but don’t get married to any kind of specifics. It just illustrates the potential of a pretty good winter pattern setting up across the country.

The individual GFS Ensembles members also have a healthy winter look…

gfs-snow

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Friday Evening Fastcast

Good evening, folks. The first weekend of December is off and running and we have a very active pattern continuing to take shape. This setup will also lead to several winter weather chances as arctic air shows up next week.

The late weekend system rolls in here with some light rain that may have a few snowflakes mixed in early in the day. The GFS is still seeing the potential…

gfs-snow

Sunday just looks like a rather ugly and chilly weather day.

The next system is much bigger and brings heavy rain back in here late Monday into Tuesday…

gfs

That could lead to another 1″+ of rain across much of the state.

Arctic air is on the move behind this system, with the traditional timing and evolvement issues showing up with the models. The GFS is too fast and progressive, as always, with that system.

The European Model continues to indicate a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary…

euro

That wave will likely show up stronger on the models in coming days and could deliver a stripe of snow across the region. Behind that, snow showers and flurries will likely fly around through Friday. Highs in the low and mid 20s will be a good bet, but wind chills will make it feel much, much colder.

Overnight low will drop into the low and middle teens, but the Canadian goes even lower…

canadian

The pattern from there can throw some additional winter weather makers our way. The morning run of the GFS went a little crazy…

gfs-2

gfs-3

Enjoy your evening and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:05 am

Winter Ready To Show Up

Good Friday, folks. The past few Decembers have been pretty wimpy in terms of cold weather and snows across the country. That does not appear to be the case this winter as Old Man Winter continues to throw out some healthy signals.

I’ve been harping on the change to wet weather being a big indicator of the overall different setup we are seeing across the country. Think of it as the buffer between the warm and dry stuff of the past several months, and the abrupt change to winter in the week ahead.

It’s a busy pattern, so let’s break it all down.

A weak system rolls our way Saturday night into Sunday, and will bring a period of light rain with it. There’s a chance for some wet flakes to mix in at times early on Sunday. The GFS still sees the best chance in the north and east…

gfs

The next system rolling in late Monday and Tuesday will likely have gusty winds and some heavy rains with it. The GFS isn’t as wet as earlier runs, but still shows some 1″+ totals…

gfs-rain-2

That’s another healthy drink of water for the region and into the deep south, and we will take it!

Once that passes, we focus on a true arctic cold front working in here late Wednesday and early Thursday. This front will have a dramatic drop in temperatures and will likely produce, at least, some snow. The whole snow thing could range from general snow showers and flurries to a swath of accumulating snows if we can get a wave of low pressure along the boundary.

The GFS shows something close to that…

gfs-6

The European Model is just a little slower with the arrival of the front, but is closer to developing a bigger system along the front…

euro

Regardless of timing and model solution… That’s some significant cold air blowing in here. Temps drop some 30-40 degrees in a few hours behind this front with highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday, and maybe Saturday. Lows can drop into the low teens with an outside shot at some single digits if we can get any snow on the ground.

Wind chill temps can drop way down there…

gfs-temps

As mentioned in earlier posts, something is going to try to work under this cold dome by next weekend. The GFS shows a system wrapping up into a big storm…

gfs

Given the amount of cold air and blocking, I doubt that type of a scenario. We may see more of an east to west system working across the Tennessee Valley. The European Model shows something like that…

euro-2

The model trend of the early cold weather season is for the end result to be right between what the GFS and European models have been forecasting. Food for thought.

I will update things later today, so check back.

Have a great Friday and take care.

5 Comments