Looking Toward Early November

Good Wednesday to one and all. Windy and chilly weather continues to rule the weather roost across central and eastern Kentucky. It has another day or so left in the tank before milder temps push in here for the weekend into early next week. That’s when our pattern begins to take on a much more active look as we get set to usher in November.

I’m even looking farther down the road toward winter with one of the newest seasonal model forecasts.

Temps today will range from the low and mid 50s across much of central and eastern parts of the state. The west is best with temps much milder.

Thursday starts cold with the potential for 30s and frost into much of the region. Again, clouds and winds will have to “chill out” for frost to form. Most areas already picked up their first frost a few weeks ago.

A weak system dives in from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. That will throw some clouds in here and I can’t rule out a scattered shower or two going up. Winds will be gusty as temps come up a few degrees with most areas seeing 60s for highs.

The weekend looks awesome to get out and check out the fall colors. Gusty winds will still be an issue, but these will be milder winds blowing. We may see a healthy temperature gradient setting up from east to west. Mid and upper 60s in the far east with near 80 in the far west?

A big cold front is on the way by Tuesday of next week…


That should spawn a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms as it races through here. That may take our temps from above normal to a bit below normal by the middle of next week…


From there, we will likely see some back and forth with the temperatures. That’s typical for this time of year as we slowly transition toward winter. Several models continue to hint at a potential winter looking system sometime in the first week of November…


That’s from the GFS and several runs of late have been going wild with cold air pouring into the country in early November. Check out these numbers from its last run…


The GFS Ensembles show a very potent storm system from two weeks out…

GFS 5 We shall see how that one plays out.

The new JAMSTEC model is out with the outlook for winter. Here are two important factors it’s picking up on…

Japan Model

It still shows the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. It also shows a weak El Nino becoming central based. Those two are pretty good to see together if you’re a fan of winter weather around here. Sure enough, the actual December-February looks like this…Japan Model 2A colder than normal winter with above normal precipitation could get interesting. That’s assuming the model is correct. ;)

Have a great day and take care.


Nor’easter Impacting Our Weather

Good Tuesday, folks. A big Nor’easter is just begging to develop and this will have a decent impact on our weather in the coming days. Windy and chilly weather will be common for most of the week before temps begin to warm some by the weekend.

Check out the strong north and northeasterly wind flow coming around this storm…


That means chilly temps and the potential for a few showers today into Wednesday. Those winds will make it feel even colder than what your thermometer says.

Lows from Wednesday through Friday will likely drop into the 30s.

Improving conditions are likely by Friday into the weekend as our skies clear up. The temperatures during this period will be warmer and we could hit 70 this weekend. The GFS continues to point in that direction with above normal temps…


The European Model continues to show a colder solution for Sunday…

Euro It then turns milder for Monday as we await the arrive of another cold front by later Tuesday and Wednesday. You can still see the model showing something tropical near Cuba. That’s a whole other mess that will have to sort itself out in the coming days.

Have a great day and take care.


Below Normal Temps This Week

Good Monday, weather weenies. October is rolling right along and the colder than normal temps are doing the same. This is another week with average temps coming in below where we should be for this time of year. Much of that will be courtesy of a big east coast storm system.

Let’s get into it.

A system dives in from the northwest today and will bring an increase in clouds and the possibility of a few showers. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to mid 60s in the far west and south.

Current temperatures

Showers will increase a bit tonight into Tuesday as the storm passes to our east. That’s when this bad boy develops into a nor’easter…


That means gusty winds and chilly temps for our region into the middle of the week. We could also see a shower or two popping during this time. Overall, that’s a very blustery looking weather map.

The system SLOWLY pulls away by the end of the week. This is when we see the models disagreeing on where this pattern takes us. I suspect a lot of that is because of how the develop and handle a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe the storm I said to watch for in September is fashionably late to the party? :)

The GFS shows that system zooming eastward across Florida and into the Atlantic and replacing with a ridge of high pressure that warms us into the 70s. It then follows that up with a decent cold front early next week…

GFS 2The European Model looks very different and slows that tropical system down across Florida, allowing for a trough to dive in from the northwest this weekend…


That could make for an interesting weather map if the European verifies.

I will say this… I do favor a decent mild spell at some point over the next couple of weeks. The pattern argues for it, but it was arguing for it this week, too. The models have been hinting at a mild start to November, but they are changing their tune as we get closer. A few runs of the GFS have even hinted at the first flakes flying during that time.

The CFS has shifted from a warmer than normal November to one that is colder than normal…


There’s a little bit of 2002 to this fall pattern and that led us into a sizeable severe weather outbreak in early November with a harsh winter that followed.

Have a great day and take care.


Temps Stay On The Chilly Side

Good Sunday, everyone. The weekend is wrapping up with another chilly day on tap for the commonwealth. This chill looks to become the norm as we roll into the full week ahead of us. Could this be a sign of things to come for the winter? One signal is strongly suggesting that to be the case.

More on that in a bit. Let’s talk about the short term forecast to start things out.

Our day is starting off with patchy frost for those areas that wake up with clear skies. Regardless of clouds or not to start, things turn partly sunny as the day wears on. Highs today will only be in the 50s.

Our next system rolls in later Monday into Tuesday. That will throw some showers back into parts of the bluegrass state. This system then cranks up into a nor’easter by the middle of the week…


Most of the rainy impact from that storm will likely stay to our east, but the wind and chilly temps will make their presence felt. Temps continue to average well below normal…

Euro 3

If that storm can manage to throw clouds or showers our way on those days… high temps could struggle to get to 50 degrees.

As you know, I have been keeping close eye on the amount of snow cover building up across the Northern Hemisphere. Many studies show an expansive October snow cover(especially across Eurasia)  leads to increased blocking during the winter months. That’s exactly what you want for cold air to dominate the pattern around here and across much of the eastern part of the country.

Snow cover is off to the races across the northern hemisphere, especially in Eurasia…

Snow Cover

I’ve been looking back through the years to find years that had as much snow cover through this same point and there aren’t many. It would appear this year is running very close with those infamous years from the late 1970s. Those produced some of the harshest winters ever around here.

Snow cover is just one thing to take into consideration, but it’s a pretty big one to look at. As always, we shall see how the rest of fall rolls in that department before getting too excited.

Have a great day and take care.



Weekend Chill Settles Into The Bluegrass State

Good Saturday, Y’all. Another blast of November chill has invaded Kentucky here in the middle of October. This will knock our temps way down and may set the stage for patchy frost early Sunday. From there, it’s all about a strong area of low pressure developing across the eastern part of the country.

Today’s front will likely produce a few showers once it passes. The best threat will be across the north and east during the afternoon and early evening.. Gusty winds will accompany the chill on a strong northwesterly wind flow…


A few weeks from now that type a flow would have me talking about some flakes trying to mix in with any shower that goes up.

Current temperatures

Clearing skies should allow temps to drop off in a hurry later this evening into tonight. Lows by Sunday may drop into the frosty low and middle 30s…

GFSAgain, to get that cold, skies must be clear with light winds. If clouds linger deeper into the night, those numbers will be higher. The afternoon and evening continues to look great with highs in the mid and upper 50s with plenty of sunshine.

Our northwesterly wind flow will send another system our way late Monday into Tuesday. A few showers continue look possible…


Gusty winds will accompany the showers as they swing through here. This system slows down and blows up along the east coast by Wednesday…

Euro 2That could still throw a shower our way into the middle of the week. It’s a very chilly and windy setup around here through Thursday and Friday.

The GFS is showing where a little bit of frozen precipitation tries to get into the mix over the next week…


While that stays to our north and east, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some out and out snows flying across the West Virginia mountains.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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A Lot Of Chill Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. We have FINALLY broken our streak of ugly weather days here in the bluegrass state. Today will turn out to be one of the best days of the entire fall with sun and mild temps. Here’s a piece of friendly advice… enjoy it. We have a lot of chill pushing back in for the weekend and that remains into next week. Some more of the ugly may join the mix again.

Temps today will likely hit 70 for much of the region under a partly sunny sky. Winds will pick up and a few clouds will increase this evening ahead of a sharp cold front due in for Saturday. Temps will drop, winds will increase and we run the risk of a few showers as the boundary arrives.

Check out the chilly look…

GFSHigh temps should stay in the 50-55 degree range for many. Skies clear late in the evening and that allows temps to take a dive toward the low 30s by Sunday morning. Frost is likely. Highs that afternoon will hit the mid and upper 50s with sunshine.

The next system works in late Monday and hangs around into Tuesday with showers on the increase…

GFS 2That has some ugly with that as this wraps up into a bigger storm across the east coast by the middle of the week…

EuroThere’s a chance of highs only in the 40s on any day featuring full rain and clouds. Throw in some gusty winds and it may feel colder than that.  Snows may fly as close as the West Virginia mountains.

The funny thing is, the overall pattern in the northern hemisphere really doesn’t look like one that would produce all this chill.

This pattern showing up around 10 days from now has the look of a pattern loading up with cold…

GFS 4Check out that blocking ridge in Alaska and the ridge showing up across Greenland. If those two show up like that… look out below!!

Have a great day and take care.


Chilly Pattern Continues

Good Thursday to one and all. Our overall weather pattern continues to skew colder than normal and that trend carries us through next week. We may even be looking at some frost by Sunday as the next blast of chill rolls our way.

The chill that’s out there today is being accompanied by gusty showers working around a slow moving area of low pressure. These showers will slowly taper off this afternoon and evening from west to east. Some breaks in the clouds may even show up across the central and west. Highs today will be back in the mid and upper 50s for many areas…

Current Temperatures

Friday’s forecast looks great with a southwesterly wind kicking up ahead of another cold front. Temps may approach 70 in some areas.

That front swings in early Saturday and it may bring a few showers on a cold northwesterly wind…


Highs will only make the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. Widespread frost is a real threat Sunday morning and then again to start the day Monday. If the GFS is right, a killing frost is possible…


Next week is likely to start with a system diving in from the northwest. That should bring some chilly showers our way at some point late Monday or Tuesday. What happens after this remains a bit murky. This system is likely to deepen and close off just to our east. That could spawn a healthy storm across the east coast. The exact placement of this storm will be the determining factor on how much impact it has on our weather.

Regardless… Thermometers should still run chilly with the numbers well below normal. Check out the forecast departure a week from now…

GFS 5Have a great day and take care.


Let’s Talk Winter

Good Wednesday to one and all. November is creeping up on us and that means winter is just around the corner. It also means the blog is about ready to kick things into high gear with multiple updates each day. In honor of our busy season ahead, I thought I would get you in the mood by talking about the winter ahead.

Before we get to the frozen talk… Here are a few nuggets about the short range forecast:

- Showers will be common today into Thursday with gusty winds and generally chilly temps. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the low 60s. We could see a few small hail producing showers during this time.

- Friday looks good ahead of another shot of chill for the weekend. Highs may stay in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday with lows dropping deep into the 30s by Sunday. Some frost is possible.

- Another chilly rain maker tries to move in here early next week. That one will have to be watched to see just how much cold air it can tap. The GFS Ensembles show temps remaining well below normal next week…


The pattern should throw another mild spell our way before the month is over. The latest CFS forecast shows the overall pattern skewing colder than normal through Thanksgiving…


The above model does show a mild spell or two coming during this time, but that’s not enough to outdo the colder than normal periods. One such period shows up strongly in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…


Once into November, we start looking out for the possibility of snow. Several of my analog years featured snows in November and a couple of them had sizable late month systems. Of course, that doesn’t mean this November will follow along, but it is something to watch for.

That’s especially true when seasonal models start pointing in that direction.  Recent runs of the CFS show the threat of snow into our region during the 10 day window from November 3-13…


That same model shows decent snows across much of the country in the 10 day period leading up to Thanksgiving…

CFS 4 Again, I am NOT saying those will be accurate. It’s just very interesting to see that much snow showing up that early in the season. This is especially true given what we are seeing with the early season snow cover in the northern hemisphere. It is literally off the chats at this point into October and ranks among the highest in recorded history.

That is following the trend that started in September when North America recorded the most snow cover on record…

Snow Cover

The amount of snow cover across North America and the northern hemisphere is a pretty big deal for those looking ahead toward winter. It’s normally a good indicator of a cold winter in the United States.

Are you excited, yet?

Make it a great day and take care.


A Couple Of Ugly Days Ahead

Good Tuesday evening. Rounds of showers will continue across the region over the next few days as a huge upper low spins across the region.

GFSTemps over the next few days will be in the mid and upper 50s with a couple of low 60s around. The scattered showers will be joined by gusty winds.

I will have a full update coming later tonight and it will include A LOT of winter talk. Some interesting things are showing up.

Enjoy the evening and take care.


Tuesday Storm Tracker

Good Tuesday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are marching across the bluegrass state as a powerful system works in from the west. These storms may severe with damaging wind as the primary threat. The highest potential will be across central and eastern parts of the state.

These are very slow movers that can put down a ton of water in a short amount of time. High water may become a problem in some areas.

Let’s track…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs



I will have updates as needed and will send out breaking weather information through my @kentuckyweather twitter feed.

Look for another post later this evening on where we go from here.

Take care.