Time posted: 2:11 am

More Storms Kick Off The Week

Good Monday, everyone. Our broken record of a forecast continues as more storms rumble across the state to start the week. While we track storms to start the week, it’s the Memorial Day Weekend everyone is interested in. As of now, things look active with the potential for a tropical system to throw a little juice our way.

Out there today, showers and storms come at us in clusters. This still does not look like a big severe weather maker, but the threat for strong to locally severe storms is with us. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Additional showers and storms will be around on Tuesday, with locally heavy rains the main threat. Local high water issues ma be noted at anytime today through Tuesday.

We may actually catch a break in the storms by the middle of the week!!

The storm threat increases again as we head into Memorial Day weekend. This is also when something tropical may get going down in the gulf of Mexico. Whatever happens with that system could impact our weather for the big weekend and into next week.

The Canadian Model has a developing storm that heads toward the central Gulf Coast states, then actually takes a ride into Kentucky. It does so by swinging a deepening trough into our region, picking up whatever is down there…

The European Model has the tropical system missing the trough, leaving the system to meander around for days…

The Icon Model looks to be taking a similar route…

The GFS really doesn’t know what to do with anything and has no system…

There is some serious convective feedback going on with that model. Wow.

Let’s get back to the storms showing up out there today. Here are your storm tracking tools…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great Monday and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 2:04 am

A Few Strong Storms Today

Good Sunday, folks. We have another active weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state, with a few rounds of strong to severe storms possible. These storms continue to be part of a busy setup, with more storms on the way in the week ahead.

Here’s an interesting stat for you, far western Kentucky had the a Severe Thunderstorm Watch on Saturday, the first severe weather watch for anywhere in Kentucky since April 13th. That’s absolutely amazing given we are in the heart of our severe weather season. It’s been super quiet, to say the least.

We may very well see another watch or two issued out there today. One cluster of storms may move in early today, with another possible late this afternoon into the evening. That’s the one that may bring the severe threat to our region. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center…

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players. These storms will be heavy rain makers and may cause additional high water issues.

Additional rounds of storms will be sweeping in here on Monday, potentially bringing another severe weather threat. Here’s the latest from the SPC…

More rounds of storms will likely hang tough through Tuesday, but a little break in the action is possible for a few days after that. Temps will continue to average well above normal, in what is likely to be one of the warmest Mays on record.

By later this week into Memorial Day weekend, a lot of what happens will likely be dictated by what happens in the tropics. Some early season development is possible around Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico. Take all models with a big grain of salt, but it’s fun to see how they handle any POSSIBLE system.

The Canadian takes it into the central Gulf and actually has some impact on our weather…

The relatively new ICON model doesn’t go out as far as the Canadian, but offers a similar look…

The GFS takes the initial system east of Florida then develops another system in the Gulf…

Again, it’s just interesting to watch model trends as we get closer to any potential development. Regardless of any tropical system, the setup is there for some unsettled holiday weekend weather around here.

Let’s get back to today’s weather. Here are your Sunday storm trackers…

 

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Make it a good one and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 2:19 am

The Storm Train Rolls On

Good Saturday, everyone. We have made it to the weekend, but the weather continues to look a lot like the week we are coming out of. As a matter of fact, this stormy setup shows little signs of letting up through next week, at least.

Today’s rounds of showers and storms can put down enough rain to cause additional high water issues in some areas. There’s even the small chance for a few strong or locally severe storms to develop in the east. This is where the Storm Prediction Center is monitoring…

Another surge of very warm and humid air is pushing in here on Sunday and may be accompanied by some storm clusters rolling in from the west and northwest. A few of these may be strong or severe…

These storms are in response to another low moving in from the northwest, and that will keep rounds of storms going into Monday. Some of those could again be strong or locally severe.

The main threat to watch for continues to be flash flooding.

More in the way of steamy temps and stormy skies will be noted into much of next week. How do we look heading into Memorial Day weekend? Much of that may depend on what, if anything, comes from a possible tropical system near Florida. The Canadian…

The GFS is just a little slower…

It’s interesting that both models do bring a sizable chunk of chill into the country to end May…

Here are your trackers for the day…

 

I will update as needed. Make it a good one and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 10:26 am

Rounds Of Storms Continue

Good Friday to one and all. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… It’s another day of tracking showers and thunderstorms across the bluegrass state. That’s been the theme of the week, with these boomers putting down enough rain to cause flash flood issues. Today should be no different.

We will actually need to be on guard for an increase to the flash flood threat as low pressure works in from the southwest. That will combine with an influx of Gulf moisture to give the atmosphere an extra kick in the pants, leading to the potential for even heavier rains.

Given how much rain some areas have already seen this week, the flash flood threat is elevated today…

 

The weekend looks to bring more of the same, with another low scooting our way by later Sunday and Monday. Ahead of this, scattered storms will be around on Saturday, especially in the east. Warm and muggy air really ramps back up with temps surging deep into the 80s again by the first half of next week.

Some of the storms could be strong for Saturday and Sunday, with the rounds of boomers sticking around through next week. Check out this one week animation from the GFS…

You can also see some kind of tropical system developing near Florida next weekend. The models have been suggesting this for a long time now. The pattern actually favors something there.

Regardless, for us, it’s a lot of rain over the next week…

Remember, those numbers really don’t take into consideration totals you can get from individual thunderstorms.

Have a great Friday and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 1:50 am

Flash Flood Threat Continues

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another day of showers and storms blowing up across the bluegrass state. This action continues to come at us in waves, keeping the local high water threat going. This threat increases just a bit as some Gulf of Mexico moisture gets in the mix.

There really isn’t much more I can add to what’s already been said on here for the past week. This setup has been well advertised, so just be aware of the cloudburst potential and the local high water threat.

Here are your Thursday tracking tools…

 

I’m a little more concerned about the heavy rain threat going into Friday. That’s when a disturbances works into the region, giving the atmosphere a little extra lift. The end result would be more showers and storms. A few more rounds of showers and storms then show up for the weekend…

The models are spitting out some general 1″-3″ rains, but really don’t take into account local amounts from thunderstorms…

The stormy setup is likely to continue into next week. Watch how the total rain numbers continue to climb…

Again, this is a setup primed to deliver additional flash flooding issues to our part of the world.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

11 Comments