Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Rain continues to fall across the eastern half of the state and that trend continues overnight into very early Wednesday. Watch the creeks and streams.

Seasonally colder air continues to push in as the rain moves out. We may even see a little sun on Wednesday before a weak system dives in from the northwest. That will quickly bring clouds back in with the potential for some rain and snow showers Wednesday night…

GFSGFS 2That’s likely nothing more than some flakes flying, but northern Kentucky could see a rooftop duster or two.

Much better conditions move in for the rest of the week into the weekend. That is likely to give way to another potent upper level system moving in by Monday…

EuroChilly showers with an outside shot at some flakes could accompany that system.

The longer range setup continues to evolve toward more of a true winter looking pattern by the middle of the month. More on that later tonight.

Before then, you know the drill…





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December Starts Wet

Good Tuesday and welcome to the month of December. The first day of meteorological winter is off and running with… Rain! That doesn’t exactly qualify as breaking news considering how wet things have been of late. What about the chance for some of the white stuff? I do have a small chance for some flakes before the week is over.

Let’s start with today and the heavy rain sweeping across central and eastern Kentucky. Hmm… what else can I say about it? Nothing, so track it…

Rain will slowly taper from west to east late this afternoon into the evening, but the drops may hang around into Wednesday morning across the east.

Temps drop quickly behind the front sweeping through here, but the cold is really nothing to write home about. It’s a seasonal chilly that may combine with a northwesterly flow to produce some rain or snow showers Wednesday night…

GFSGFS 2That could put down some accumulations as close by as the West Virginia mountains, but I don’t expect anything at all around our part of the world. A few flakes might be as good as it gets.

Much better weather moves in for later in the week into the weekend.

After that, we have to watch for another system to arrive late weekend or early next week. The overall setup for the middle of December continues to show signs of changing. The Ensembles have been hinting at this for a while and the operational models are trying to do the same. The latest GFS is the latest example…



As always, we shall see.

Another update comes your way later today. Take care.


Monday Night Thoughts

Good evening, gang. Dense fog and increasing rains are dominating the evening across the bluegrass state. This heavy rain carries us into Tuesday until a cold front finally sweeps it all to our east.

That doesn’t mean we are totally in the clear. Another disturbance drops in on a northwesterly flow Wednesday night and Thursday morning. That is likely to mean some rain and snow showers working into central and eastern Kentucky…

GFSThe new GFS then tries to dive another rain of snow shower maker into northern and eastern Kentucky later Friday…

GFS 3Here’s where the model sees the best chance for seeing flakes this week…

GFS 2Looking longer range… watch late next weekend into early the following week for another ugly system trying to impact our weather…

CanadianSpeaking of ugly… let’s track another ugly evening in Kentucky…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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November Ends With More Rain

Good Monday, folks. As hard as it is to believe, November is wrapping up out there today. The month has been a warm one across our region, and things have turned wet lately. This wet weather continues out there today and should carry us into the first day of meteorological winter.

Showers will be around for much of the day with another round of steady rain firing up this evening across central and eastern Kentucky. As some slightly milder air moves in on Tuesday, some thunder is even possible. All of this action comes after widespread rains since Friday.

Some areas have picked up better than 2″ of rain since then, and a lot more is on the way for the central and east…


Local high water issues are even possible in the far southeast in this type of setup.

Seasonally cold air comes in behind the departing rain shield Tuesday night. A check of the NAM shows the REAL DEAL cold air staying well to our west…


The upper level system digging in here Wednesday into early Thursday will briefly turn winds to the northwest…


That true northwesterly wind flow means we have a small window for a rain or snow shower. The GFS has the best threat Wednesday evening…


I will talk more about where the pattern goes after this with my next update later today. Until then, it’s all about that rain…’bout that rain… No snow. You know you’re singing that song now! 😉

Have a great Monday and take care.


Sunday Night Thoughts

Good evening, gang. Our soggy and ugly weekend is wrapping up with steady rains on the increase. This sets the stage for more heavy rains over the next few days before we change it up a bit.

I’ve already hit on the heavy rain threat, so I won’t get into that again. Let’s talk about what happens after the rains finally end.

Things turn seasonally colder for Wednesday and Thursday…


The source region for that air isn’t very cold, so it’s only seasonal. As that comes in, a rain or snow shower will be possible Wednesday.

Then we focus on the potential for another system to roll our way by later next weekend into the following week. This is likely to come from another bowling ball type system…


We will have to wait and see exactly how that plays out, but another round of ugly weather is more than possible.

I’m seeing increasing signs of a significant change in the overall North American pattern for the second half of December. Among those signs… the CFS. This seasonal model has actually had a decent handle on the mild fall we’ve had. It’s now seeing the potential change to colder for much of the country. That could come in time for Christmas.

Check out the 10 day average temperature departures in Celsius…



The end of the operational models and the Ensembles are also signaling a colder setup by mid December. That could be a pattern for Christmas! :)

Until we get there, let’s track the rain we have tonight…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.


Very Active Pattern Continues

Good Sunday to one and all. Ugly is the weather word of the weekend with a lot of clouds and rainy weather around. Unfortunately, we have more of the same coming our way over the next several days. As a matter of fact, the heaviest rains may be yet to come for central and eastern Kentucky.

Showers continue out there today, but some dry hours look to sneak into the northern half of the state. Temps in these areas stay in the 40s as the front pushes into southern Kentucky and puts the brakes on. This boundary then surges northward with an increase in temps, winds and moisture for Monday and Tuesday.

As a matter of fact, thunderstorms will be possible on the first day of December. Watch how quickly the action blows up late Monday through Tuesday…


Rainfall totals from today through Tuesday are high across central and eastern Kentucky…


That’s showing better than 3″ of new rain across southern and southeastern Kentucky. High water issues would be possible with those numbers… Especially Monday night and Tuesday.

This whole mess is courtesy of a monster of a cutoff low that works out of the Rockies and into the high plains with a monster snowstorm. That upper low then hits the Ohio Valley by Wednesday…


As that swings across the region on Wednesday, temps come way down with the potential for some rain and snow showers…


That moves away as temps recover by the end of the week. We will have to watch another system diving in here about a week from now. I’ll try to touch more on that and signs of a wintry pattern by the middle of the month in a late day update.

For now, let’s track more rain…

Enjoy your day and take care.


Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We’re putting the wraps on a very ugly  weather day across the bluegrass state. Low clouds and steady rains are combining to give us a serious case of the uglies. Guess what? More rain is on the way over the next several days. Yippee!

The rain train should finally leave the station by the middle of the week with a seasonal brand of chill replacing it…


The overall pattern across the country continues to skew milder than normal into early December. The blocking signatures on the models from a week or two ago just did not pan out. It’s likely a case of them jumping the gun on what should happen later in December.

That doesn’t mean we can’t get a few pools of colder air to work in. These kinds of systems can produce more rain and some wintry weather. The Canadian Model shows one of these systems late next weekend…


The European Model also shows something similar around the same time period…

Euro 2

I’ll see you for a late night update. Until then, track some… Wait for it… Wait for it… Rain…

Take care.


Rain, Rain and More Rain

Good Saturday, everyone. The overall forecast for the next several days is pretty simple and straightforward… Rain. A series of systems work from southwest to northeast across the region through Tuesday. This means waves of rain, heavy at times, working across the region.

From today through Tuesday of next week,, the models continue to point toward a general 1″-3″ rainfall across much of the state…

Euro 2

I’ve noticed the totals continue to come in higher across the south and east. Part of that is because of the wave of low pressure coming late Monday into Tuesday.

This same overall storm system has produced significant ice in the plains states to go along with the heavy rains around here.  It’s a system I first gave you a heads up on 10 days ago with this map…

Special 2

I did think we would get colder air involved in this system, but from 10 days out… I will take it.

I keep checking the CFS Ensembles snowfall forecast into early January. They continue to show lighter snow potential through the middle of December with a big ramp up later December into early January…


Again, the majority of that falls later in that 45 day window and would certainly match my winter forecast thoughts on this being a back loaded winter.

I leave you with your radars for the day…

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the rain and take care.


Holiday Weekend Thoughts

Good Friday, everyone. Our looooong Thanksgiving holiday weekend rolls on with rain moving into the region. This rain really settles in over the next few days and should carry us into early next week.

I have a bit of a turkey hangover, so I’m going to keep this update rather brief. I will get you a longer update later in the day.

Clouds increase today with rain arriving in western Kentucky. That rain shield is slower getting to central and eastern Kentucky and that means another mainly dry and mild day.

Saturday and Sunday look soggy with waves of rain working in from the southwest…


The threat for rain carries us into Monday and Tuesday with a general 1″-3″ rainfall by then. Colder weather follows that up with a few more systems trying to skirt by to our south and east. Depending on the available cold air, some wintry weather would be possible.

Speaking of winter weather. For fun, the CFS Ensembles snowfall forecasts over the next 45 days…


Two sets of the Ensembles are very excited about snows around here through early January. The other two… Not so much. Don’t worry, those change from run to run and I don’t expect the best snows until after that time period. 😉

I leave you with your radars to track the nasty weather to our west…

See you later today for an update. Take care.


Rainy Weather On The Way

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. As I’ve said many times before… You guys are like a family to me and I’m so thankful you allow me to do what I love to do each and every day. :)

The weather on this big day is absolutely awesome with a mix of sun and clouds, mild temps and gusty winds. Enjoy!

Rain is on the way later Friday as we go into a very wet period across our region. The showers move into western Kentucky early in the day then slowly work eastward into Friday evening. The drops may not reach eastern Kentucky until early Saturday morning.

Waves of rain then come at us this weekend into early next week. Heavy downpours will be likely and rainfall totals will really be up there. A general 1″-3″ rain is likely with higher amounts possible in the west…


We will have to keep a close eye on that as there is a ton of juice available.

After that, we see the potential for several systems to try and amplify across our region and into the east. Depending on the amount of cold air available, these could be winter weather producers…




I will try to update again today. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and take care.