Storms and Heavy Rain Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Here we go again! Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are returning to the bluegrass state and these could bring additional heavy rains. The overall setup continues to be skewed toward much wetter than normal through the medium and longer range.

Scattered storms will be around early today, but that action will really ramp up this afternoon into tonight. That happens as a cold front moves in and puts the brakes on. The end result will be rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms. A few strong storms will also be possible.

Impulses will ride eastward along this front over the next few days and bring more rounds of showers and storms…

Euro

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible during this time. Humidity levels will continue to run sky high with temps in the normal 80s.

The worst of the steamy temps should come as we start the weekend. That’s when the sweat factor jumps off the charts for the entire region. A big dip in the jet stream moves in late weekend into early next week and that should set off some big storms…  Euro 3The models don’t handle rounds of storms very well, but they should be used to drive home the stormy point of the pattern. The latest rainfall estimated indicate we have to watch for more flooding over the next week…

Euro 2

Your daily dose of storm trackers…

 

 

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Make it a great day and take care.

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Another week of scattered storms

Good Monday, everyone. We have a sweaty week of weather taking shape across our neck of the woods. The super soaked ground is going to throw a lot of moisture into the atmosphere and that will make for some very oppressive air. Oh yeah… a few more storms will also be on the move.

Just how wet is the ground across Kentucky? The departures from normal over the past 30 days and since January 1st (Minus Sunday’s rainfall)…

RainfallI know what you’re thinking… here comes a snarky comment from CB toward the drought mongers. Nah… that’s like shooting fish in a barrel. :)

All this water in the ground is going to do 2 things this week… Make things super humid at times and keep temps relatively in check. The grass and vegetation is about as green and lush as you will ever find it in July. That means take the under on the computer model forecast highs over the next week.

Highs today will run in the 80s, but the humidity will make it feel even warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility.

The shower and storm chances will increase on Tuesday as a cold front moves our way from the northwest. Humidity levels will REALLY increase ahead of this front as scattered showers and storms develop fairly early in the day. Watch how the scattered showers and storms try to give way to a healthy line of showers and storms later in the day on the Hi-Res NAM…

NAM

Wait for it… wait for it… Heavy rains will be a possibility with the showers and storms that go up. Local high water issues will again be possible and some of the storms could be rather intense.

The European Model has a similar look…

Euro

The rest of the week will feature more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Very warm temps will be noted with super-duper high humidity levels. Heat index values will be on the increase as our “more humid than hot” pattern cranks back up.

Here’s a cool stat for you. Lexington’s 30 year average summer temperature to date is 73 degrees. Lexington’s average temperature to date this summer… 73 degrees. Average temps with way above normal rainfall, so far.

I leave you with your trackers…

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking Another Flash Flood Threat

Good Sunday, everyone. Waves of showers and thunderstorms are back in the bluegrass state today, and these could cause more high water problems. The heaviest rains will likely impact the southern and eastern parts of the region through tonight.

Slow-moving thunderstorms will be common in these areas and could deliver another 1″-3″ of rain. This could cause significant flood problems to develop as our ground is still soaked from recent rains. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is out for many areas during this time and we will likely see warnings issued from time to time.

The showers and storms will likely develop all the way to the north of Interstate 64 in central and eastern Kentucky. The models all summer have been too far south with the placement of showers and storms.

Track away…

 

 

The pattern for the rest of the week into next weekend will find “real” heat returning to our south and southeast with a shot of cool to our north. Guess what that means for our region? If you said more storms… Congrats!!

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The European Model rainfall forecast for the next week and change shows the end result pretty clearly…

Euro 2

Not exactly what we want to see, but it’s really been the dominant pattern of 2015 with May being the exception. This setup means we will need to be on guard for more high water issues.

The European Model still wants to dig a big trough into the eastern part of the country in a little over a week from now…

Euro 3

We actually need something like that to happen so we can dry things out a bit. If not… it’s pretty much more of the same with rounds of storms and near normal temps.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Not As Stormy For The 4th

Good Saturday and Happy 4th of July. The biggest holiday of the summer is here and it looks like things won’t be as stormy as the past week. That doesn’t mean all is well in the wonderful world of weather, through. Some scattered showers and storms could still cause a few issues.

The greatest risk for scattered storms will be across the southern half of the state. This doesn’t look anything like what we went through last night, but a heavy downpour is certainly possible. Outside of any shower or storm… some sun could boost temps toward the low 80s.

The potential is there for a bit of an increase in scattered action later this evening into Sunday, and that could impact a few fireworks shows…

NAMAgain, today does not look like a washout.

Scattered storms with low and mid 80s will be around on Monday. Enjoy that relative “break” in the action. Here comes another cold front entering the picture by Tuesday…

Euro

That will cause our rain chances to go up once again. Notice the wave of low pressure developing along the front to our southwest. Watch what the European Model does with that Wednesday and Thursday…

Euro 2 Euro 3That setup could bring more heavy rains back into the region. It’s a pattern that shows little sign of letting up over the next several weeks. This puts us on the path for the 3rd summer in a row with much above normal rainfall and little in the way of true heat. Wonder if that holds true for the fall and winter ahead? Hmm 😉

I leave you with your patriotic tracking toys…

 

 

Happy 4th of July and take care.

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Another Day Of Storms and Heavy Rain

Good Friday, everyone. We’ve made it to the big 4th of July holiday weekend, but we just can’t shake the showers and thunderstorms. The threat continues across the bluegrass state today and additional high water problems are a real concern… Again.

Another system will cross the region today and ignite more rounds of boomers. A few could be on the strong side, but all of the action will produce some torrential downpours. A Flash Flood Watch continues for many across the region. Your tracking toys in a bit.

Let’s talk a little bit about the weather for the 4th of July. This does not look like a washout. Yes, we will have rounds of storms, but we should also have some dry times. The greatest concentration looks to be across the southern half of the area. That shows up in the forecast high temps…

Euro 2

Told ya “Hot as the 4th of July” wouldn’t be appropriate to use this year! 😉

Temps will rebound into the 80s area wide from Sunday into the first half of next week. This is normal to below normal for this time of year. The cool shot that had been showing up for the second half of next isn’t looking as cool as before. That’s bad news. Why? It likely means a continuation of the stormy setup…

Euro

The CFS rainfall forecasts I posted back in May caught a lot of flack from some who never bother to check the forecast range on them. They were 45 day cumulative rainfall forecasts that took us into the first few weeks of July and they did a great job in showing the wet weather we’ve had.

The same model run for the next 45 days show’s a persistent pattern into mid August…

CFSI leave you with your tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

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Have a great day and take care.

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Watching The Flash Flood Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. We are tracking an increased threat for flash flooding across much of the bluegrass state over the next couple of days. A weak boundary is draped across the region with areas of low pressure moving along it. That likely spells trouble with additional heavy rain producing showers and storms.

Here’s a breakdown:

– Thunderstorm action will really increase today as we get waves of boomers rolling through. A few storms could be strong or severe with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns.

– These showers and storms will be prolific rain producers and can drop a few inches in just an hour or two. That could cause some quick rises on creeks and streams.

– Rounds of storms will continue to push across the region through tonight and into Friday. All tolled, many areas will likely pick up anywhere from 1″-4″ of rain during this time.

– The potential is there for some extreme flash flooding on a local scale.

– The threat for showers and storms will hang around into the coming 4th of July weekend. That could threaten to washout some parades and fireworks.

I have you all set to follow today’s flash flood threat and storm potential…

 

 

Today’s risk area

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Current watches

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Have a great day and take care.

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Storms and Heavy Rains Continue

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will keep on doing their thing over the next several days. We’re pretty much locked into a very stormy setup that is likely to include too much rainfall before all is said and done. This isn’t the ideal forecast heading into the 4th of July weekend.

The threat for scattered showers and storms will be with us again today. Just like before, a few of the boomers could be on the strong side.

Showers and storms may increase in coverage and rainfall intensity Thursday into Friday. That’s with a disturbance rolling eastward across our region. That could put down enough rains to cause some local high water issues.

The systems will keep zipping through here this 4th of July weekend and into early next week. Rainfall numbers from the computer models continue to be very impressive.

The European…

Euro

What amounts to the composite rainfall average from the HPC comes up with this over the next week…

WPC

No matter how you slice it, this is a very active storm pattern that will throw a lot of rain our way High water issues are a very real possibility in the coming days.

Temps stay below normal through the weekend with highs potentially staying in the 70s for a few days. After a small spike in thermometers early next week, look out below!

Euro 2Another deep trough is likely to dig in across the central and eastern parts of the country. That means temps may go back to being solidly below normal for a while.

I said this would be a summer of frequent cold front! 😉

Your daily dose of tracking toys…

 

 

Today’s risk area

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Current watches

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Have a great day and take care.

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The Stormy Pattern Rolls On

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms have been common over the past few weeks and that pattern shows little sign of changing. With the stormy setup comes a continuation of the cooler than normal weather we’ve been seeing of late.

Today’s weather will feature another system diving in from the northwest. Just like Monday, storms will develop as the day wears on and some could be strong or severe. These storms will also be capable of putting down a ton of rain that can lead to localized stream and street flooding.

Storms will continue to target the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley over the next several days. The latest 7 day rainfall forecast from the WPC…

WPC

Exact totals will depend on, of course, where the strongest storms set up. Regardless, that shows the potential for too much rain for some areas over the next week.

With the storm chance comes more below normal temps. Here are the highs from the European Model…

Euro

 

Normal highs should be in the mid and upper 80s across the entire region. Temps may get back toward normal for a few days into early next week. That probably won’t hang around long as odds favor another deep trough digging into the eastern part of the country my mid week. The European Model…

Euro 2Your daily dose of storm tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

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Current watches

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Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Another Stormy Week Begins

Good Monday, everyone. June is quickly running out of days and we are just about ready to flip the calendar to July. June has given us a lot of rain and storms with some areas approaching top 10 wet status. It’s only appropriate for the month to end with some storms, and for July to start the same way. The potential is also there for too much rain to fall during the next week.

A system continues to dive in here from the northwest today into Tuesday. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible during this time and a few of the storms could produce hail and damaging winds. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

These disturbances keep rolling into our region from the northwest later this week. Check out the clusters of storms as these systems move in from Wednesday through Friday…

Euro 2Heavy rainfall is a likelihood in this type of pattern with the potential for local high water issues to develop. The new NAM certainly has the look. Check out the rainfall forecast just through Wednesday night…

NAM

Scattered storms may be around as we celebrate Independence Day. As far as temps go… Readings should continue to average below normal through the week. The GFS suggests the 4th is a little below normal…

GFSTemps may spike a bit toward toasty readings for a few days after that, but the cooler than normal look may kick back in shortly thereafter…

GFS Temps 2I leave you with all you need to track today’s storms…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms Set To Return

Good Sunday, folks. Today is shaping up to be one the best days of the entire year across the bluegrass state. My advice to you is to get out and enjoy it because rounds of storms are about to return. This is all part of the wet pattern we’ve slipped back into over the past few weeks.

Let’s begin with the good stuff that is the weather of today. Highs will run in the mid and upper 70s for many areas with an occasional 80 in the far west and south. Skies will stay mainly sunny with some high clouds increasing during the afternoon and evening.

Those clouds are ahead of a system diving in from the northwest that will bring showers and storms our way for Monday and Tuesday… NAM 2A few of those storms could be strong. Highs will generally run from the upper 70s to low 80s on both days.

The pattern for the second half of the week will feature the heat across the western part of the country and a trough continuing in the east. That could lead to more rounds of showers and storms for our region into the 4th of July weekend…

EuroThe potential remains for a lot of rain to fall across our region over the next week and change. As a matter of fact, the overall setup continues to favor an active storm pattern for much of the summer.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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