Christmas Week Update

Good evening, gang. As we wrap up another dreary day in the bluegrass state, the countdown is on to Christmas! The possibility of a a huge storm system to develop for Christmas Eve and Day continues to be the focus of forecasts all across the eastern half of the country.

The idea of a deepening storm from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes still shows up on several of the models. The new version of the GFS shows a wicked, wicked storm for millions of Americans…

GFS 3

 

That drops the barometric pressure with that storm to 965mb by Christmas morning. WOW! Talk about a HUGE wind maker!

That’s a scenario that would put snow on the ground around and cause blowing snow with winds greater than 40mph. Of course… that is IF that model were to verify.

The UKMET goes out to Christmas Eve morning and appears to be going in a similar direction with a storm lifting northward across the Ohio Valley…

 

 

UKMETThe GFS Ensembles show a huge storm developing a just to our northeast…

GFS 2  The regular run of the soon to be defunct GFS is even trying to go toward the deeper solution…

GFS

It is still likely too progressive with things, but even that run would give us very windy weather with rain to snow and snow showers and squalls through Christmas morning.

Confidence in, at least, some snow is rising.

I will update things this evening. Take caer.

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Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, all. The wintry mix across the west and south is winding down with a lot of clouds and cold air left for the rest of the day. A few snowflakes will be possible across the entire region, but nothing of any consequence.

We’re a week away from Christmas, so let’s look ahead at our snow chances.

The southern system for the weekend will deliver a glancing blow of winter our way, but it’s turning out more complex than that. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

It was just a few days ago that model had it raining in Chicago from this very same system. My distrust of the models is well placed and I can sometimes correct their biases… sometimes. Not all the time, obviously. :) Anyway, I’m seeing another bias of the GFS coming into play from Tuesday into Wednesday… the progressive bias. That keeps the storm from bombing out, but still produces plenty of wind, cold and snows…

GFS 2

The High Resolution GFS continues to show the bomb for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

GFS 3

That’s a monster of a storm system that blanket the area in high winds and blowing snow into Christmas Day.

The Canadian Model by Wednesday morning certainly is going in that same direction…

Canadian

So, even with the most progressive of solutions (the old GFS), you still get snow and gusty winds. That’s probably the weakest possible solution with this type of setup, and I wouldn’t complain a bit with that for Christmas. :)

BTW… another storm follows this one up by next Friday or Saturday. That one is likely to be pushed by true arctic air.

I will update things this evening. Take care.

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Tracking A Thursday Touch Of Winter

Good Thursday, everyone. Our day is likely to start out with a wintry mix of precipitation across the western and southern parts of the bluegrass state. This could be enough to cause some slick roads for a short time and I will have a full assortment of tracking tools in a bit.

Some headlines start us out…

- Today’s action will diminish the farther east it gets, but could hang together in some fashion all the way to Interstate 75. Again, the best action will be in the west and south.

- This system turned into a much bigger one for areas just to our west. That has robbed a lot of the energy from the weekend system and that means it’s weaker and much farther south. I will fine tune what impact that has on our weather later today.

- Christmas week continues to be highlighted by a major buckle in the jet stream. This should lead to a big storm developing from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The exact evolution of all this is a long way from being resolved, but it’s a very strong signal that continues to show up late Tuesday into Christmas Eve…

GFS

GFS 2- Taken verbatim, that’s rain and wind increasing Tuesday with a quick crash in temps with snow taking over Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Snow showers and squalls would then kick into high gear for Christmas eve into Christmas morning. Wind gusts of 40mph would also be possible. Again, that’s what the Ensembles run above would suggest.

- At the very least, we are likely looking at a huge temperature drop with snow showers and very gusty winds for Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning. Of course, there is the potential for a lot more, but I would totally settle with some snow showers and cold for Christmas.

- Some snow on Christmas would complete our holiday snow trifecta with Halloween and Thanksgiving also featuring flakes. I wonder how many times that has ever happened? Guess I will have to do some research soon. New year’s… you’re next. ;)

I will update things later today. In the meantime, lets track…

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

 

 

 

 

46 Comments

Interesting Christmas Week Weather

Good evening, all. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the super duper active winter weather pattern developing across the country as we roll into Christmas week.

We continue to track some snow chances before we even get into next week. The first one is on track for late tonight and Thursday. This may put down some light accumulations across the western half of the state with a touch of sleet and freezing rain trying to get in the mix. That action diminishes the farther east it gets, but should cause some flakes to fly for many.

The Friday night and Saturday storm system looks about the same as it has for the past few days. It’s a weaker storm because some of that energy is shooting out ahead of it and giving us the flakes threat on Thursday.

The NAM shows a stripe of winter weather…

NAM

Remember when I kept saying we had a much better chance of this thing going well to our south and it cutting to the lakes like the GFS had? The weaker the low, the farther south it stays.

The Christmas week setup is now getting a lot of attention from forecasters across the country. A huge buckle in the jet stream could create a bomb of a storm system across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Christmas Eve.

Euro 2Check out the look from the European for next Wednesday morning…

Euro 3 That’s pretty darn wicked. Here’s a little more in depth look at what the same model run shows…

Euro

That’s a week away and that’s an eternity in the world of weather. Still, that’s pretty darn wild to see anytime of the year, especially around Christmas.

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

19 Comments

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another cold, dreary December day in the bluegrass state. Some flurries are flying around and that’s not a bad thing to see a week before Christmas. Something else that’s not bad to see… snow chances ahead.

The first chance arrives late Tonight into Thursday with a streaking area of light snow. This looks to put down light accumulations across western Kentucky. That area could even see some sleet and freezing rain mixing in. That NAM is picking up on the possible sticking snow in the west…

NAM 2 That streak of snow will then weaken the farther east that it gets, but most areas should see a some flakes.

The Friday night and Saturday system continues to look about the same as it did with the last update. The storm is now within the time range of the NAM…

NAM 3

That would deliver a swath of winter weather across the state. We still have to fine tune just how big of a swath that is and exactly where it sets up.

Christmas week keeps yelling “PAY ATTENTION TO ME”. The GFS continues to point toward the Christmas Eve and Day bomb…

GFS

GFS 2Just look at how much of the country being impacted by that type of a system. If that works out like what the models are strongly hinting at, a travel nightmare would ensue for millions of Americans. We shall see.

On a related note, the models are back to busting way too warm with the temps.  The GFS is the prime culprit as usual, but the numbers from that model are even trending down for the rest of the week.

I will have another update later today. Take care.

65 Comments

Talking Christmas Snow Chances

Good Wednesday, gang. Christmas is fast approaching and the requests for snow are coming fast and furious. There are years we pretty much know there is little to no chance of snow for this festive time. This year is not one of those years. Snow chances are lining up through Christmas week and beyond.

Christmastime snow lovers have to be excited at the possibility…

charliebrownsingingchristmas

We have a few flakes flying around early today as clouds hang tough. High temps will be mainly in the 30s with gusty winds making it feel like the 20s out there.

We are likely to see a swath of light snow and flurries streaking eastward across Kentucky on Thursday. This may put down some light accumulations across the western parts of the state. Even with a diminishing snow trend, It does look like flakes could fly all the way into eastern Kentucky. You can see what I’m talking about on the European snowfall map…

Euro

I will have more on this with an update later today.

The next system rolling in for Friday night and Saturday continues to look about the same as it did with my last updates. The operational models continue to show this as a weaker storm rolling across the deep south. This storm is just getting to the tail end of the NAM range. Here’s what the NAM is showing for Saturday morning…

NAM 2

That has a nice shield of snow working across southern and western parts of the state. That would likely then work to the northeast during the day. That does match up well with the new snow/frozen precip map from the European Model…

Euro 2I want to get within 48 hours of this system to see what the models look like. Why? Look no further than the flakes coming tomorrow. The models were showing that potential several days ago, backed off, then found it again with 48 hours.

This brings us into Christmas week and this is the period I’ve been pointing to for the past few weeks, at least. It’s the timeframe that has been giving us a huge signal for a big return of Old Man Winter to much of the country. That signal grows louder the closer we get to Christmas.

It’s so loud that even the GFS is picking up on it…

GFS GFS 3

That basically shows a storm bombing out as it works from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. A scenario like that has been showing up on many runs of the ensembles in recent days. The newer version of the GFS has been showing a similar setup, as has the European Model.

Speaking of the European Model. Its last run looks like a distant cousin of a certain Ohio Valley storm from January of 78…

Euro 3 Euro 4

I’m just showing you what the models look like. That’s what we do on a weather blog. Folks, I would just settle for some flakes flying around Christmas week. I’m pretty easy to please. :)

I will have updates later today. Take care.

30 Comments

Updating The Snow Chances

Good evening, friends. Temps continue to tumble from northwest to southeast as colder air continues to push in from the northwest. That colder air could cause a couple of snow flurries tonight and Wednesday.

The bigger story continues to be the potential for light snow on Thursday and the potential for a little bigger system by Saturday and a much bigger system by Christmas Eve.

The potential for a little snow on Thursday is increasing. The western half of the state has a decent chance of picking up on some light accumulations. The European Ensembles…

Euro 4

Some light snow and flurries will try to streak across the entire state before weakening.

The next system coming our way is the southern storm from Friday night into Saturday. The models continue to go back and forth on the strength and track of this, but I do expect a decent swath of winter weather across Kentucky.

The latest European Model shows this well…

Euro Snow

The European Ensembles show a greater shield of winter weather…

Euro 5

 

My concern continues to revolve around the possibility the models are in their window of waffle and go back toward a slightly stronger system.

The new SREF 12 hour precipitation numbers through the middle of Friday night show my concern…

 

 

SREF

That’s a lot more juice than many of the operational models are showing.

 

Christmas week continues to show some BIG BIG potential for cold and snow for millions of people and that includes our region. The prime time to watch will be late Tuesday into Christmas Eve. The upper levels are primed for a big system. Check out the European Ensembles Christmas Eve…

 

Euro 3

The GFS Ensembles aren’t too far behind…

GFS 3Another system will follow that up a few days after Christmas.

I said on here about a week ago that any winter weather we get before next week would be a bonus. The REAL action starts Christmas week and goes through January.

I will see you with a full update later tonight. Take care.

21 Comments

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s hoping the day is treating you well. Colder air continues to push into the region and will knock our temps way down from where we’ve been in recent days. This leads us into a pattern loaded with winter over the next few weeks and that action starts later this week.

We could actually see a few snow flurries flying around tonight into Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

The Thursday system keeps upping the chances for a period of light snow and flurries for much of the state. The NAM is jumping on board with this potential…

NAM

The best chance continues to show up across the western and southern parts of the state. The Short Range Ensembles Forecast (SREF), however, does show more moisture farther north and east…

SREFIf the ensembles are correct, the threat for some light snow would come farther north and east. That’s a trend we will keep watching.

I’m also watching the potential weekend system that the models continue to be all over the place with. The regular GFS still can’t get anything right in the lower levels or upper levels of the atmosphere. Throw in the fact it is also having convective feedback issues, and you have a model that is still useless.

The new version of the GFS appears to be getting better organized with this system, but offers up a choppy winter precipitation shield…

GFS

The SREF is offering up a very expansive precipitation shield at the very end of it’s range (Friday Evening)…

SREF 2

The models are a long way from figuring out the Thursday system, let alone what will happen this upcoming weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, I have to admit, I’m rooting against a big winter system around here. I would hate to cancel my much anticipated trip to Chicago.  Don’t judge me, snow lovers. :)

I will have another update later today. Take care.

33 Comments

Tracking The Return Of Winter

Good Tuesday to one and all. Winter weather is heading back into Kentucky in the coming days as we slip into what may become a rather wild pattern over the next couple of weeks. If you like snow and cold, you should really be licking your chops with this kind of setup.

Let’s get this party started by talking about what’s going on today. Temps will start the day in the upper 40s and low 50s then drop toward the low 40s from west to east this afternoon. A few gusty showers will also be noted as a cold front swings through the region.

Current temperatures

Colder air continues to filter in right on through Wednesday with highs only in the 30s. A stray snow flurry will also be possible.

This brings us into a pattern featuring a couple of potential snow makers from later this week into the weekend. I’m seeing a couple of trends emerging: 1. The Thursday system is showing up a little stronger. 2. The weekend system is showing up a little weaker.

Let’s start with the Thursday system as it’s piquing my interest a little more the closer we get. The European Model is now spitting out more of a widespread light snow and flurry maker for much of the state…

Euro

It continues to show the greatest potential across the west and south, but the whole setup is showing up a little stronger. If this trend continues, we might have to talk about the possibility of sticking snows for some. The new version of the GFS is even picking up on this much better than earlier runs…

GFS

It doesn’t show this to the extent of the European, but this model basically had nothing coming from prior runs.

As far as the weekend winter storm potential goes… I suspect what happens with that storm will be impacted by the Thursday system. It’s no coincidence we are seeing the models trending a little stronger for Thursday and a touch weaker for Saturday. That’s because we’re getting a little more energy sneaking out instead of hanging back and bundling into one strong storm. Of course… that’s the latest flavor of the models and that may all change with ensuing runs.

It’s not like the European Model isn’t still showing a decent system Friday night into Saturday…

Euro 2

That’s actually indicating a pretty good hit of winter weather across much of Kentucky.

Model variations are common and that’s what we will continue to see for another few days. It may not be until later Wednesday or Thursday before things really clear up.

Moral of the weather story… This is a setup that really bears watching as it could deliver a nice hit of winter over a busy travel weekend.

Christmas week will see another MAJOR buckle in the jet stream and that should provide this region and much of the eastern half of the country with a big blast of winter. The models continue to key on a possible system Christmas Eve and Day with the new version of the GFS going hog wild…

GFS 2

That is, obviously, on the extreme end of the spectrum, but the pattern is ripe for something to crank up around the time Santa arrives.

I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

18 Comments

Updating The Winter Weather Threat

Good Monday evening, gang. Old Man Winter looks ready to return in a big way over the next couple of weeks. I’ve been trying to drive this point home since back in November and I see ZERO reason to change my thoughts.

The action gets started with the potential for a streak of light snow and flurries for parts of the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The European Model shows the areas having the best chance to see some flakes…

Euro 3

The best chance will be in the west and south, but some flakes could fly anywhere at some point.

The same run of the European Model is a little farther south than earlier runs with the weekend winter storm potential…

Euro Euro Snow

Again, the models will show deviations from run to run and that always happens. As I mentioned a few days ago, there’s a better chance this storm goes too far south than too far north and produces just rain.

The control run of the European Ensembles basically didn’t budge with what they have been showing in recent days…

Euro 4 Euro 5

The GFS continues to be lost in the woods, but the “new” GFS continues to strongly trend toward what the European Model has been showing in recent days.

It’s still pretty early in the game, but the potential for a decent winter weather hit for our region is increasing. It’s far from a sure thing, but you have to like how things are looking from 4 days out.

Speaking of looking good, the signal for some Christmas Eve and Day fun continues to show up very well…

Euro 2 Buckle up… we have a lot of winter on the way.

Take care.

 

27 Comments