Tracking storms and cool shots

Good Wednesday, everyone. September air is set to move back into the bluegrass state and it’s announcing its arrival with showers and storms. These storms could be on the strong side later today and I have the blog all set to track the action.

Let’s break down the pattern before we watch for storms.

The storms will increase from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. Some of these could be strong with torrential rains. This will continue into early Thursday in southern and southeastern Kentucky as our cold front drops in.

Highs Thursday will range from the mid to upper 70s for many with even cooler air working in Thursday night. Check out the lows from the GFS for Friday morning…

GFS

Highs Friday afternoon will hit the upper 70s to low 80s with partly sunny skies. Warmer air fights in this weekend and could bring some clusters of storms moving in from the northwest. We will need to watch that setup.

All of that is ahead of a HUGE dip in the jet stream that takes up residence across the eastern half of the country early next week…

GFS 5

That will crank our additional showers and storms ahead of it Sunday into early Monday. The big news will be the amount of cool air coming in behind this. It may rival what we just went through a few weeks ago. The GFS has lost its mind with the amount of cold possible. Check out the forecast lows for Tuesday…

GFS 3

We are NOT going to see temps drop into the 30s next week… that’s absurd. But, that is the first time in my career I’ve seen a model forecast that at any point in the summer.

The overall very cool theme carries us into the start of August…

GFS 4Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Cold Fronts Take Center Stage

Good Tuesday, friends. We have a steamy day out there today, but the focus of the forecast is on the September setup for the coming days. Temps are set to take a big tumble for the second half of this week with a bigger push of cool air coming next week.

Highs today will hit the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. Humidity levels will continue to increase and this will lead to isolated showers and storms going up.

The real action starts on Wednesday as a strong cold front barrels in from the northwest. This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms may be strong. This will carry us into the first part of Thursday before skies start to dry. The models are spitting out some hefty rain totals during this time…

GFS Rain

Central and eastern parts of the state continue to be the target area for the heaviest rains. I suspect southeastern Kentucky does the best with lighter totals in the north and west. Sound familiar?

Highs on Thursday will likely be in the mid and upper 70s across the state with brightening skies by the end of the day. That will set the stage for very cool start to Friday…

GFS 2

The rest of Friday looks good with upper 70s to low 80s. The weekend will start with the threat for a scattered storm on Saturday with highs back in the 80s. Storm chances really increase Sunday into Monday ahead of a MASSIVE dip in the jet stream. This winter looking pattern will cause a cutoff low to form across the Great Lakes early in the week…

GFS 3

This has a shot of delivering us temps equal to or slightly cooler than last week. That, my friends, is impressive and is a continuation of the same pattern we’ve been in since late last year.

We’re not alone in all this. Check out how much of the country will see the cooler than normal air over the next week…GFS 4Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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More Shots Of September Air Ahead

Good Monday, everyone.  We have a small blast of heat moving in for a few days, but the pattern continues to be skewed way below normal. Additional shots of fall air are on the way over the next week and it looks like early August will feature more of the same. Throw in several rounds of rain and storms and you get the best of both worlds.

Temps today will hit the mid and upper 80s in central and eastern Kentucky and near 90 in the west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible with some very muggy air in place.

Tuesday’s weather looks very similar with highs from the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. A few afternoon and evening storms may pop up.

Wednesday could be a active weather day as a strong cold front moves in from the northwest This will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms our way and some of these could be strong by evening. Winds look to be very gusty throughout the day. Temps could hit the low 90s if the clouds and storms arrive during the evening. If they come in earlier, temps will be cooler.

Locally heavy rains are a good bet with the storms that blow through early Thursday…

GFS Check out how far below normal the models show the Thursday afternoon temps…

GFS 3

That should set us up with some very pleasant temps through the start of the weekend. This is when a stronger push of fall air arrives with even more widespread showers and thunderstorms…

GFS 2That unleashes another mega-trough that digs in early next week…

GFS 4That looks a lot like the recent shots of cool air and shows how little the overall pattern has changed since last fall. Think about it… how many anomalous dips in the jet stream have we seen since then? This has been a fairly stable pattern and I don’t see a lot of change going forward.

Back to my story… temps early next week will tank, again…

EuroThat’s a very cool end to July and I suspect it hangs around into early August. The latest forecast from the CFS shows average temps from now through Labor Day as being below normal…

CFS

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A Quick Hit Of Heat Before More Cool Air Arrives

Good Sunday, everyone. The past week has been among the coolest you will ever find for the month of July across the bluegrass state. It’s pretty amazing the lack of attention it has gotten from many in the weather community in this region. Well… these folks will be happy for a few days. Why? We have a quick hitting blast of normal summertime heat to hype! ;)

Many areas should FINALLY crack the 80 degree mark today as scattered showers and thunderstorms goes up. The best chance will be across central and eastern Kentucky…

Current temperatures

Temps will take off over the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. This isn’t too dissimilar to what we had a week ago ahead of a cold front. The difference this time is the ground is MUCH wetter across the area. Central and eastern parts of the state picked up anywhere from 1″ to 5″ of rain during this time. Not bad!

A scattering of showers and storms will be around each afternoon through Tuesday. A cold front will cause showers and storms to increase late Wednesday into early Thursday. That could drop some pretty good rains on the region and will introduce another cooler than normal pattern…

Euro 2That should give us highs from the upper 70s to low 80s for Thursday into Friday with partly sunny skies. Readings will spike up on Saturday ahead of another cold front diving toward the state. This should touch off additional showers and thunderstorms and is being pushed by a much deeper dip in the jet stream…

Euro 3

That trough in the east is something that looks to hang tough into early August…

GFS 2The end result would be a continuation of the cooler than normal pattern…

GFS 3

GFS 4Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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A Rainy Saturday For Some

Good Saturday to one and all. Rain and thunder is kicking off the weekend for much of the bluegrass state. This is all part of a pattern that looks and feels more like fall instead of July.  Guess what? We’re not done with the cool blast of air!

Let’s hit the rain prospects before we get to the temp setup. Occasional rain and some thunder is likely today across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rain is likely into southern and eastern Kentucky and some areas could pick up 1″-2″. Lighter totals will be noted across the north and west.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around to wrap up the weekend on Sunday… especially in the central and east. Highs will return to the 80s.

Scattered showers and storms will be around into the first half of next week as temps try their best to get to normal summertime readings. Another dip in the jet stream will bring another shot of cooler air by the end of the week…

Euro

That won’t be nearly as cool as where we’ve been of late, but will give us 80-85 degree readings with some sun and slightly cooler with some rain.

That looks to be followed up by an even bigger push of cool air late next weekend into early the following week…

Euro 2

Heck, even the GFS has this one…

GFSLet’s track today’s weather…

Rainfall

Current temperatures

 

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Showers Rolling In To Start The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Rain will be increasing across much of the region today and that’s a trend that carries us into the weekend. The heaviest rains look to fall across central and eastern parts of the state with lighter amounts in the west and far north.

Here’s a quick breakdown…

- This is almost like something we would track in the winter months with a sharp western cutoff to the precipitation shield.

- Showers increase today from southwest to northeast. This is not a washout anywhere, but some showers will be around.

- Temps today will be warmer in the west and north and MUCH cooler for areas getting in on clouds and showers. As a matter of fact… readings may drop into the 60s as the drops fall.

- A greater slug of moisture rolls in tonight into Saturday. That’s when we will likely see the sharp gradient in the heaviest rains setting up. The best bet for heavy rain is across the south and southeast.

Track away…

Current temperatures

Scattered showers and storms will be around into the weekend as temps slowly warm. The overall pattern into next week is much warmer and more humid with a daily threat for showers and storms. That threat may be elevated because of a weakness in the atmosphere showing up right over our region…

Euro 2

That pattern looks to be replaced by another deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country sometime nest weekend…Euro 3

The GFS Ensembles have a fairly strong signal for another shot of well below normal temps as we close out July and move into early August…

GFS 2I can live with that!

Make it a great Friday and take care.

19 Comments

Rain Chances Increase This Weekend

Good Thursday, friends and neighbors. Our fall feel rolls on for a few more days as we track the return of rain chances to the bluegrass state. The threat for showers and storms will slowly increase this weekend into early next week That’s some great news because we can certainly use some more.

Let’s start with the chill in the air before we get to the rainy stuff.

Temps this morning will likely drop into the 50-55 degree range for many areas and records are in jeopardy, again. Track it all through the Kentucky Mesonet…

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Highs this afternoon may tickle 80 in the west and south with many areas in the mid to upper 70s. Skies will be partly sunny with more in the way of low humidity. In a word… perfection.

Moisture begins to increase on Friday. That’s when some showers will slowly develop later in the day with temps from the upper 70s to low 80s. Rain chances should increase into Saturday and Sunday as low pressure moves our way from the southwest…

Euro

The models have been waffling back and forth on a lot of rain verses just a small amount of rain. The GFS has been the worst of the bunch. One of the runs from Wednesday was showing this…

GFS RainOther runs had pretty much nothing. Treat the GFS like you treat in during the cold weather season because that’s how this pattern looks. The model has some real issues in how it handles energy.

The clouds and rain chances will help keep temps below normal through the weekend and into the early part of next week.

A heads up for those who like to look farther down the road… I will be doing just that this weekend. Will El Nino develop? How do the seasonal models look as we head toward Fall?

Enjoy the day and take care.

10 Comments

Cool Weather Rolls On

Good Wednesday, all. The blast of fall air looks to dominate our weather for the rest of the week. This is about as cool as the temps can get in the middle of Summer. Sure, we may have had cooler “days”, but it’s rare to get this for several days in a row.

Record lows could fall to start out today with several locations dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Kentucky Mesonet gives you a glimpse of some of the lows from across the state…

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s for many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. With such cold air aloft, a stray shower or two may develop during the heart of the afternoon.

Thursday morning will be another chilly one with low and mid 50s. Some of the record lows tomorrow are a bit warmer than this morning’s, so we could be within striking distance. Highs Thursday will be in the mid and upper 70s.

Our next threat for rain moves in Friday into Saturday. The European Model has the heaviest falling across the eastern half of the state…

Euro 3

If you’re more of a fan of our neighbor to the north… the Canadian Model is farther west with the heavy rain…

CanadianGo Canada! :)

Temps will remain below normal through the weekend.

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

11 Comments

Fall In The Middle Of Summer

Good Tuesday and welcome to a taste of fall. A much cooler than normal pattern is settling into the bluegrass state and could lead to record low temps in the coming days. This air will hang tough into the start of the weekend. That’s when it may be joined by another decent shot of rain.

A cold front is blasting out of southeastern Kentucky today and is taking the showers and storms with it. Cool and dry air comes in behind this with highs in the middle 70s across many areas. The south and southeast could be warmer depending on the timing of the front.

Current temperatures

Tonight’s temps will drop like a rock with dry air and mainly clear skies. The GFS is rocking some almost chilly temps by Wednesday morning…

GFS 2

That would certainly leave a mark on history. Those are likely too low, but upper 40s to low 50s look very possible in many areas and records may fall.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday should stay in the mid and upper 70s with some sun. Friday will see a moisture rich system making a run at us. The Canadian Model shows a healthy rainfall…

Canadian

The European Model isn’t to different and holds the rain into Saturday…Euro

Friday has the potential to be a very cool day if the rain arrives early enough. The highs from the European Model are ridiculous…

Euro 2There is a lot of 2009 to this pattern!

Enjoy your day and take care.

15 Comments

A Very Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday, folks. We have a powerful cold front surging into the region today and this will create rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong with some MUCH needed rainfall likely. What comes after the storms will steal the weather show. Record to near record cold temps are possible this week.

We need rain! The recent underperforming storms of the past 10 days have really dried things out and you saw that coming into play with the scorching temps on Sunday. Today’s front has a good shot at bringing beneficial rainfall to the region into early Tuesday. Some areas do run the risk of too much of a good thing and we will have to watch for local high water issues.

A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe… especially across the southern half of the state.

Temps will be MUCH cooler today and may not get much past the upper 70s to low 80s because of clouds and rain. Those numbers may be the warmest we see all week. Check out the huge dip in the jet stream coming over the next few days…

Euro 2

That is something straight out of winter and isn’t something you see a lot in summer. The cool numbers coming in behind this could be record setters for lows and lowest high temps. The NAM has low and mid 70s for Tuesday…

NAM

Record lows may go down by Wednesday morning with upper 40s to low 50s possible with clear skies. Check out the GFS numbers…

GFS 2We will keep the 70s for highs Wednesday into Thursday with a partly sunny sky. A potential old fashioned rain maker will try to work our way by Friday into Saturday. The European Model…

EuroThat could be a VERY cool rain… if it actually materializes.

Ok… let’s get your Monday weather trackers out there…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

25 Comments