Time posted: 1:23 am

Our Active Pattern Turns Much Cooler

Good Monday, folks. Our week is kicking off with showers and thunderstorms rolling across the state, as our overall pattern begins to skew cooler than normal. If you’re a regular reader of KWC, you know I’ve been hitting this change pretty hard over the past month or so. Now, it’s time for Mother Nature to deliver the goods. 🙂

Speaking of the goods, I have a little winter talk coming up.

Today’s showers and thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with, so locally heavy rains are a good bet. One or two storms may also be on the strong side. Let’s get the trackers out of the way…

The actual front sweeps through here later Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Temps  and humidity levels will tank behind the boundary for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Check out the mid-week highs…

Another system drops in by later Thursday into Friday, and should hang around through the weekend. This is likely an anomalous cutoff low pressure spinning right on top of us…

The end result is unsettled and wet weather…

Temps will continue to run below normal during this time, with a few days coming in WELL below normal.

As far as your winter talk is concerned, I’ve been sharing many of the seasonal models all singing a similar tune with a developing weak El Nino. I’ve illustrated how the placement of the warmest waters are vitally important as to what kind of winter we get around here. With the likelihood of the warmest anomalies being located in region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific, it enhances the potential for a trough to develop across the eastern part of the country.

A new seasonal model is in and shows that scenario happening. Here’s the Canadian month by month breakdown from December through March…

That’s a good look for winter weather lovers across Kentucky and for much of the country. That also matches up reasonably well with some of the other seasonal models I’ve been showing.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

Rounds Of Storms Start Our Pattern Change

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are increasing across the Commonwealth today, in advance of a big pattern flip for the week ahead. This will usher in a much cooler setup that, for the most part, sticks around for the rest of summer.

Today’s showers and storms may be a bit on the strong side with high winds possibly causing issues on the local scale. Any storm that goes up may also produce torrential rains, so watch the creeks and streams. Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Those showers and storms continue on Monday and into Tuesday, with more heavy downpours a good bet. This is ahead of the first cold front dropping in from the northwest…

Much cooler than normal air settles in along and behind the front. Highs on Wednesday may not get out of the upper 70s for some.

Another system then digs in by the end of the week into the weekend, leading to unsettled weather…

GFS

Canadian

That would keep the cooler than normal temperatures going. The shots of cool don’t end there and could grow even cooler against the averages for the following week. The 5 day average from the European Ensembles…

The CFS has grown even cooler looking for the rest of July…

With the cooler than normal look trying to get established for the rest of summer, It’s got me in the mood for a little winter talk. I will have that coming in my next update.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:51 am

Big Changes Next Week

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s a hot and humid start to the weekend, but some hefty weather changes are on the way next week. Those changes bring several cold fronts into our region, leading to a much cooler overall pattern taking shape for the rest of July and into August.

Highs today are generally in the low 90s with some higher numbers showing up in the typical “hot spots”. Humidity levels will make it feel a little hotter. A few storms try to develop by the afternoon and evening. Track away…

Scattered showers and storms will increase for Sunday as steamy temps roll on. A few of the late day storms may be a little on the strong side, and those strong storms return on Monday. Some heavy rains will be noted with this action along and ahead of a cold front dropping in…

Cooler air shows up along and behind that boundary…

Another system then develops and works in here by Thursday and Friday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication of a system trying to close off near us…

That would certainly keep the below normal temps coming. As a matter of fact, the CFS continues to see the cooler than normal rest of July…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 4:56 am

A Cooler Pattern Next Week

Good Friday to one and all. We are rolling our way into the weekend with steamy temps and an increasing threat for storms. That stormy action kicks into high gear later Sunday into early next week, with much cooler air to follow. This is all part of a fundamental pattern change, leading to the cooler second half of summer I’ve been advertising for a while.

Highs today and Saturday are generally in the upper 80s and low 90s. The west will be a few degrees toastier than that, with humidity levels adding to hotter feel. I can’t totally rule out isolated storms today, with scattered storms developing later Saturday afternoon and evening…

Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread Sunday into early next week ahead of our first cold front dropping in…

Strong storms are possible in that type of a setup, but the cool shot coming in behind it will be pretty awesome…

Another system will then dive in behind this by the end of the week, bringing more showers and storms and a bigger push of cool…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:31 am

Summer Sizzle To A Cooler Setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a nice weather day in progress across the region, with lower humidity levels and fairly pleasant temps. A little summer sizzle is on the way for the next few days, but a stormy setup into next week looks to usher in a much cooler overall pattern for the country.

Highs today range from 90 in the west, to the low and middle 80s east. Humidity levels will give us a very comfortable feel to the air.

Friday into Saturday will see the steam returning. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s and low 90s, with some higher numbers in the west and the poorly maintained/placed airport thermometers. Humidity levels come back up some, but nothing like what we had last week.

Isolated showers and storms will be noted on Saturday, with showers  and storms really increasing by Sunday and Monday…

This action is ahead of the first of two cold fronts set to impact our weather next week. The second front arrives late next week into the following weekend. Watch the waves of below normal temps take over…

Both of those will knock the numbers down, but it’s a fundamental shift in the overall pattern that’s very common during a developing El Nino.

Everything from the operational models to the ensembles are locking in on this change taking place. I’ve also posted several seasonal models showing the transition and we can add the CAS to the mix. Here’s the model forecast for August-October…

That look digs even deeper for the September-November period…

Make it a great day and take care.

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