Much Better For Memorial Day Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to the unofficial kickoff to the summer season and things are looking more and more like, well, summer. Of course, anything is going to feel like summer coming off the chilly past few days.

Thursday’s highs were among some of the coldest late season numbers we’ve had around here in recorded history. That chill continues into the start of today with some upper 30s and low 40s possible.

Things begin to improve this afternoon as temps hit the low 70s in most areas. Some middle 70s will show up in the west and south as skies stay partly sunny.

Saturday’s weather looks great with highs pushing 80 degrees under more in the way of sunshine. Low to mid 80s still look to dominate the rest of the holiday weekend with an increase in humidity and storm chances. The best chance for storms will move in on Memorial Day, but I don’t expect a washout.

That increase in moisture from the southwest then settles into the region as we roll into the middle of the week…

Euro

The pattern for the second half of the week into the following weekend is one that may be showing our summer setup. Notice how far out in the Atlantic Ocean this high sets up….

GFS 2That puts our region in more of a very warm and humid flow that brings the threat for scattered showers and storms.

Since this weekend is the unofficial kickoff to Summer, it makes sense to look ahead to fall and winter! :) I will show you some new seasonal computer model forecasts.

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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A Little Chill Before Steamy Temps Return

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a rather chilly weather day in progress across the bluegrass state. Low clouds, spotty showers and areas of drizzle will combine forces to keep temps well, well below normal. Once we get past today, summer air surges in for the holiday weekend.

Highs today will mainly be in the low and mid 60s, but some upper 50s will be possible. That’s chilly, my friends. Track away…

Skies will break overnight with readings dropping toward the low 40s. The GFS shows some 30s…

GFS TEMPS 1

Afternoon temps will rebound quite nicely with 70-75 likely for much of the state. Upper 70s to low 80s will then show up on Saturday with partly sunny skies.

Scattered storms will try to fire up late Sunday into Memorial Day with a strong flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico…

EuroGFS

 

The pattern for next week continues to look much warmer with several days in the 80s. The warm and more humid air will continue to give us some scattered storm potential. The GFS continues to pain a rather busy pattern across the country over the next few weeks…

 

GFS RainMake it a great day and take care.

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A September Feel Rolls On

Good Wednesday, folks. A great brand of air continues to blow across the bluegrass state and this has a few days left in the tank. Changes begin to push in here for Memorial Day Weekend. Those changes will lead to an increase in temps, humidity and storm chances.

Speaking of storm chances, we have a window of opportunity for some scattered stuff late today into tonight. This fast-moving system will zip through here with a  few showers and storms through tonight.

Leftover showers may linger into early Thursday. A mix of sun and clouds  will take over with temps struggling to get out of the 60s for highs.. That should set the stage for another very chilly night. The GFS has some ch-ch-chilly readings by Friday morning…

GFS TEMPS 1

Highs by Friday afternoon should hit 70-75 in most areas with full sunshine.

The Memorial Day Weekend starts with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s for Saturday with mostly sunny skies. The threat for storms will then increase on Sunday and Memorial Day. That trend should carry us past the holiday weekend…

GFS

Memorial Day highs should reach well into the 80s across the bluegrass state. That same setup should bring some serious heat to our south and southeast…

Euro 2You may see that scenario play out a lot this summer! 😉

Have a great day and take care.

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Much Cooler Weather Moving In

Good Tuesday to one and all. Cooler air is slowly but surely working into the region and this will give us a taste of September leading up to the holiday weekend. Conditions for Memorial Day Weekend will look and feel a lot different as muggy air and storms return.

The front continues to push across the region today with a big temp gradient setting up. 80 is possible in the far south and southeast with low 70s in the north and northwest. There is still a small shower chance just ahead of the front, but most areas remain dry.

Very cool air filters in here tonight and Wednesday. Check out the low temps being forecast by the Hi-Res NAM…

NAM 2

That’s some serious chilly for this late in May. Last week, I talked about the potential for some upper 30s and low 40s for this week. The models are certainly suggesting this as a possibility on Wednesday morning.

Highs later in the day will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds. A weak wave of low pressure scoots across the region with the threat for scattered showers and storms into Wednesday night…

NAMThursday and Friday will continue with our September feel with upper 60s to low 70s for highs. Low humidity levels will make for some excellent weather.

Memorial Day Weekend is just around the corner and things will turn much warmer. That is likely to come with a stormy price as moisture increases. Check out the increase in storms on the GFS…

GFS

Highs both days will mainly be in the 80-85 degree range with very muggy air in place.

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Booming Storms Along A Cold Front

Good Monday, folks. We have a strong cold front working into the region today and this should touch off additional showers and storms. A few of the storms could be on the booming side with high winds and hail possible. Once the front blows through… cooler air blows in and takes control of our week in weather.

We will have to watch for the potential of some strong or severe storms trying to pop out there today. The best chance may wind up being in the north and northeast. I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

This front won’t move through until Tuesday and that means temps should still be a little warm with upper 70s to around 80 for many. Isolated showers and storms may linger across the east. Our boundary only slowly pushes to our south as cooler air sweeps in. The NAM has some downright chilly temps by Wednesday morning…

NAM

I mentioned the cold front being a slow mover. That slow push allows for a wave of low pressure to develop along it to our west and southwest. That system rolls eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening with an increase in clouds and scattered showers and some thunder. Here’s the future radar from the NAM:

NAM 2That system will weaken as it moves through our region, but some showers could linger into Thursday morning.

This is a cool air mass coming for the middle and later part of the week. Upper 60s to low 70s may be as good as it gets for highs during this time.

Warmer air moves back in as we roll into Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday looks like the best weather day with readings in the upper 70s to near 80 with partly sunny skies. A developing storm across the plains suggests things turn active by Sunday and Memorial Day…

GFS

Let’s track the storms in the short term…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another day of tropical temps and scattered showers and storms across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Our muggy run of weather has one more day left before we track some much cooler and drier changes into the week ahead.

Highs today will be back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Areas that try to sneak in a little more sunshine could reach the middle 80s. Once again, the sweat factor is going to be off the charts. Scattered showers and storms will rumble across the state with locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning(LOL). There’s the chance for some late day strong or severe storms in the far west.

A strong cold front inches toward the state Monday with an increase in showers and storms…

GFS

The severe threat for Monday is fairly low, but some isolated strong to severe action is possible. Watch for some heavy rain amounts and local high water issues with that setup.

The front will ease on through here Tuesday as cooler and drier air takes over. With a slower arriving front, Tuesday could still feature a scattered shower or thunderstorm.

That cooler air then settles in for Wednesday with readings several degrees below normal…

GFS 2

The GFS shows low 40s for some…

GFS Temps

We will see a weak system weakening as it rolls in from the west. That may produce a shower or two by Thursday, but some clouds may end up being all we get.

Warmer air then moves back in for next weekend into the following week with the return of scattered showers and storms.

Speak of scattered stuff, let’s track…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking Muggy Air and Storms

Good Saturday to one and all. This is a very tropical air mass in place across Kentucky and that’s going to cause rounds of showers and storms to fire up. With the increase in juice, these storms will likely contain a lot of lightning(LOL) and will put down torrential rains.

While it isn’t a washout of a weekend, the storm threat appears to be a little higher than what I had thought a few days ago. Scattered storms will crank today through Monday and the latest computer model forecasts are showing some pretty decent rain totals.

Here’s the NAM through Monday…

NAMModels usually struggle with rainfall totals from thunderstorms. I suspect some areas could see locally higher amounts than what’s being shown.

What about the severe weather threat? A few strong storms could crank up through Sunday with hail and high winds possible. The best threat for a strong to severe storm may come on Monday ahead of a cold front moving through.

That front will bring much cooler and drier air into the middle of next week.

I have you all set to do some Saturday storm tracking…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered Storms For The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We have a muggy weekend taking shape across the bluegrass state, and that muggy air will bring some scattered storms back into the picture. This isn’t a washout of a weekend, but a backup plan for outdoor activities would be a good idea. The longer term continues to feature another big cool blast.

Highs today will hit the upper 70s to low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Higher humidity levels will increase and that increases our sweat factor. Scattered thunderstorms will go up, but we will have a lot of dry times out there.

This moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico continues into the weekend…

Euro

Locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning will be possible with any storm that goes up. Localized severe storms will be possible as the cold front moves in on Monday.

The air coming in behind that front is well below normal for much of the country. Check out the Tuesday through Thursday progression of the cool…

Euro 2

The European Model continues to bring some uber cool high temps…

GFS TEMPS 1Overrunning rains will try to break out by the end of next week into the following weekend.

I leave you with some scattered storm tracking tools…

Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Steam and Storms Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have one more nice day in store for the region before things turn steamy and stormy over the next several days. While that’s happening… I’m already tracking another big cool shot coming your way next week.

Today will feature temps warming from southwest to northeast with many thermometers into the mid and upper 70s for highs. Some low 80s will also be possible in the south and west. Humidity levels and clouds will also increase later in the day.

Moisture will continue to stream in from the southwest for Friday into Saturday. That means scattered showers and storms going up each day…

NAM

That’s a trend that carries us into Sunday as weekend highs settle into the upper 70s to low 80s. Any storm that develops this weekend could contain a lot of lightning and torrential rains. Still… This does not look like a washout.

 

A cold front will move in on Monday with more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. This front is being pushed by a very chilly air mass…

Euro

That’s from the European Model and would mean temps drop  WELL BELOW normal for the middle and end of next week. That same model run has crazy cool highs for next Wednesday…

Euro 2If the European Model is correct… it would suggest the possibility of some patchy frost developing. That’s a big IF from a week away.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A More Active Pattern Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have another gorgeous weather day in the works across the bluegrass state of the Kentucky. This nice stuff isn’t going to last for much longer… Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast to start the upcoming weekend.

In the short term, it’s another great day out there. Upper 60s to around 70 in the north with 70-75 across the south and west under mainly sunny skies.

Clouds, temps and humidity levels will all increase into Thursday. That sets the stage for a nice flow from the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming weekend. That means an increase in scattered showers and storms…

GFS

Temps this weekend will be mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

A strong cold front barrels toward the region late Monday into early Tuesday. That could have some rounds of strong storms out ahead of it…

GFS 2

MUCH cooler air will follow in behind that boundary for the middle and end of next week.

GFS 3Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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