Humidity Joins Our Summer Party

Good Tuesday, everyone. I’ve been hinting at a fast and furious flip to summer for early May, and here it is. Thermometers this week will reach normal levels for July. That’s impressive considering we were just talking about frost a few days ago. With the summertime temps comes an increase in humidity. Is it too early to be talking about muggy weather?

Highs today will reach the low 80s for most of the state. A few middle 80s will be possible across the west. Those middle 80s will be likely for much of the state Wednesday and Thursday. Upper 80s will be possible during this time.

This is when you will really begin to notice that increase in humidity levels and that could pawn isolated showers and storms.

The overall setup has been well telegraphed for a while, now. A super warm pattern across the eastern half of the country with cool in the west and storms in between. There continues to be the chance of something tropical forming off the southeastern seaboard. The future radar from the NAM is impressed with that feature…

NAM

Whatever kind of system we have down there should meander around that region through the upcoming weekend. That keeps our region in a very warm and humid pattern…Euro

That’s a look that could give us a 90 degree temperature reading before all is said and done. The chance for a shower or storm will be with us through the weekend. Those chances really increase early next week with a strong cold front moving in…

GFS

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Toasty Week Of Temps

Good Monday and welcome to summer. Yes, I know it’s the first week of May, but our weather pattern continues to suggest something totally different. Temps will be super toasty this week and could even flirt with some records by the second half of the week. It’s during this time we will also see an increase in moisture and the potential for showers and storms.

There is the smallest threat for isolated showers and storms today across the north. Other than that, we will see partly sunny skies with most areas hitting 80 or a little better.

Low and middle 80s for highs will be common for the rest of the week. A day or two could feature thermometers hitting the upper 80s…

GFS Temps

It’s possible to see a rare early May 90 degree temp show up with this type of setup.

I mentioned the potential for scattered showers and storms to enter the picture and that’s possible late in the week. The models continue to advertise our flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico and that should bring a nice increase in humidity. The potential tropical system off the southeastern coastline shows up at the same time…

GFS

The GFS keeps that system floating around through the weekend into early next week. That’s when it finally brings the western trough out into the plains states…

GFS 2That would dramatically increase our thunderstorm chances and is something to watch for. This severe weather season has shown some signs over the past month, but the lid continues to be on the pot. That should change into the middle and end of May.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A Week Of Summer Weather

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weather for the first weekend in May is about as good as it gets across the bluegrass state. Heck… this is about as good as it gets for any time of the year. The nice stuff is going to be sticking around for a while as our pattern goes straight into one that looks and feels the part of summer.

Is this a sign of a fast and furious start to summer? The latest CFS suggests the rest of May is warmer than normal around here…

CFS

The same model run then reverses that trend for the first half of June…

CFS 2

The rainfall forecast from the CFS through the middle of June basically shows what one would expect with the wet year we have going…

CFS 3

I’m working on the summer forecast for WKYT and will have it out here in another week or so. A strengthening 2nd year El Nino and the impact it will have on our weather is the focus of that forecast.

One thing is for sure… Summer is coming early this week. Highs will be in the 80-85 degree range on most days with only small chances for storms going up. Enjoy!

Take care.

 

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Summer Comes Early

Good Saturday and Happy Kentucky Derby Day. Gorgeous weather is showing up out there today and that’s making for a perfect Run For The Roses. If you’re a fan of this… just wait until you see what I have in store for you next week. We’re going straight into summer!

Highs today will range from around 70 in the east to the low and mid 70s across central and western parts of the region. Skies will stay partly sunny with a few clouds building during the afternoon. Those clouds aren’t likely to spit out anything, but the leading edge of warm air is on top of us and that can sometimes spawn a popcorn shower.

Sunday starts a run of even warmer air as our highs surge into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The pattern for next week looks more like something you would see in late summer…

Euro

That’s a deep trough across the west coast… a heat ridge from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley… and a potential tropical system off the southeastern seaboard. That doesn’t really scream May, does it?

The possible tropical system shows up well on most models later next week…

Euro 2

We shall see what happens with that, but it may be a signal for some close to home development for the upcoming season.

While that’s developing across the southeastern coastline… our temps surge. Mid and upper 80s will be possible…

GFS TEMPS 1

As I said… it’s straight into Summer. Enjoy.

Happy Derby Day and take care.

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A Good Looking Kentucky Derby Weekend

Good Friday and welcome to Kentucky Derby Weekend. Our weather continues to look good as the eyes of the world focus on the bluegrass state. Temps will continue to rise as we hang on to a mostly dry sky. This warm up is just the beginning… Next week will feature a taste of summer.

Highs on this Kentucky Oaks Day will hit the mid and upper 60s in the east with low 70s showing up across the west. Some clouds will be noted early, but we should see more of a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.

Derby Day looks good with partly sunny skies and temps in the 70-75 degree range for much of the state. Enjoy.

The pattern for next week is a very warm one for our part of the world…

GFS 3

That type of setup is usually good for temps hitting the low and middle 80s. Some pockets of even warmer air may try to show up. Increasing amounts of humidity will increase as the week wears on. That leads to the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the bulk of the storms may hang to our west. Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through next week…

GFS

The corridor of storms is then likely to shift farther eastward and back into our region. If we expand the GFS rain forecast out to 2 weeks, you can see what I’m talking about…

GFS 2Have a great day and take care.

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A Summer Preview Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a rather ugly day going on across central and eastern parts of the state, but that’s about to change. As we head into Kentucky Derby weekend, things are about to heat up. As a matter of fact, next week is going to feel a lot like the early part of Summer.

Let’s get the ugly out of the way.

Highs today will hit the mid and upper 60s in the west, but may struggle to get much past 60 for the rest of the state. Winds will be very gusty as showers work across the region. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible.

The upper level system responsible for the ugly stuff will scoot to our east on Friday. The day could start with low clouds in the east, but a mix of sun and clouds should rule the day for many. Highs range from the low and mid 60s east to the low 70s west.

Things look pretty good if you’re heading out to Churchill Downs for the Oaks and The Derby. Highs for Derby Day will surge into the 70s…

GFS TEMPS 1

As I mentioned yesterday, there is still the smallest chance for a popup shower or storm Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday will find temps heading closer to 80 with a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm. This sets the stage for temps to surge well into the 80s for next week as our flow comes straight from the south and southwest…

GFSThe subtropical low off the southeast kinda blocks the pattern up and keeps us on the very warm side of things. The big dip in the jet stream across the west will try to throw some thunderstorms our way on occasion. Eventually… that’s a severe weather pattern.

Have a great day and take care.

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Shower Chances Return

Good Wednesday, folks. Part of the region may get in on a shower or two out there today, but the greater risk returns for Thursday. That’s when we find one last ugly looking system before much better weather rolls in for the big weekend ahead.

A southern storm system looks to throw a few clouds our way today and may bring a shower into the south and southeast. Temps should generally run in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds for many.

A potent upper level system will dive in from the northwest on Thursday. That’s a system that looks more like something from the wintertime…

NAM

This means scattered showers and gusty winds will be common. A rumble of thunder and some small hail will be possible in that type of setup. Temps will continue to run on the much colder than normal side of things…

Euro 3Kentucky Oaks Day looks much better with a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the 60s. Kentucky Derby Saturday will feature breezy weather with mostly sunny skies and temps hitting the low 70s. I must admit, there is the smallest chance for a stray shower or storm late in the day or evening. Most of that looks to stay to our west.

The threat for scattered storms will increase as temps spike from Sunday into next week. 80 degrees or better should be common on many days. Storm chances will be there too…

Euro 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer Changes Showing Up

Good Tuesday, everyone. Here’s hoping this finds you enjoying life to the fullest. We’ve had a lot of ugly weather over the past few months and a little more ugly is showing up later this week. That said… this pattern is ready to flip on a dime to a very warm one as we head into May.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Patchy frost and 30s will start things out with partly sunny skies and temps in the 60s finish things off. A few clouds will roll in late today and those clouds will produce the threat of a few showers on Wednesday. That’s coming from a big storm system across the deep south…

Euro

The best chance of Wednesday showers will be across the south and east. Areas with showers and clouds will stay under 60. For those with a hint of some sun, 60s will be common.

That system then slowly works up the east coast on Thursday. As that happens, a strong upper level disturbance dives in behind it across the Ohio Valley. This winter looking storm will then spawn chilly rains around here…

Euro 2

Middle 50s for highs on Thursday will be possible for some areas. Ouch!

Much better weather rolls in for Kentucky Oaks Day with some sunshine and temps in the mid and high 60s. Derby day looks AWESOME with highs in the 70s and a mostly sunny sky.

We may hit 80 degrees or better starting Sunday into early next week. Temps may head deep into the 80s later in the week. Unfortunately, the pattern I see setting up is likely to be a very stormy one. Frequent rounds of boomers look to be common for the first half of May. That should up the ante on severe weather around here.

The latest GFS 2 week rainfall forecast is loaded with juice for much of the country…

GFS RainEnjoy your day and take care.

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Cool Temps Hang Around

Good Monday to one and all. We’ve had quite the run of colder than normal temperatures for the past week and change. This looks to continue through the rest of the week before the pattern flips to warm over Kentucky Derby weekend. That’s a warm pattern that may dominate much of May.

We continue to flirt with the potential for frost this morning and again Tuesday morning. Lows will drop into the low and middle 30s for the coldest valleys.

Afternoon temps on this Monday will only recover into the upper 50s and low 60s for many. Similar temps will be noted for Tuesday as some clouds roll into town. Those clouds are ahead of a southern, slow-moving storm that works up the east coast. That should come close enough to throw some rain our way Wednesday into Thursday…

GFS

That keeps temps on the very cool side of things and may even allow for one more morning in the upper 30s on Friday.

That should then set us up with a breezy and sunny Kentucky Oaks Day. The European Model idea of a slower warm up is likely the correct way to go. The GFS has now come way down with high temps for Oaks…

GFS Temps

Kentucky Derby Day finds the warmer air really beginning to surge in…

GFS Temps 2

That is likely to begin a very warm first week of May across much of the country…

GFS Temps 3

Yes, Please!

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Another Round Of Frost Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. A cold front is pushing to our east today and that’s taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. Much colder than normal air is pushing back into the region and that’s likely to set the stage for more frost. There is some hope in the longer range as our pattern turns milder for Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Morning showers quickly work to our east as skies become partly sunny. Temps will be rather cool with upper 50s and low 60s for highs with breezy conditions.

Temps over the next couple of mornings will drop deep into the 30s and could bottom out around the freezing mark for some…

GFS Temps 3

Green thumbs… you know the drill.

Highs will continue to range from the upper 50s and low 60s through the middle of the week. That’s when a few showers will be possible as a slow moving storm moves out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast…

Euro

That will then slowly move away in time for Derby weekend. The GFS turns things warm…

Oaks Day

GFS Temps

Derby Day

GFS Temps 2

The European isn’t as quick with the warm temps, but all of the models suggest dry times.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

 

 

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