Half and Half Weather Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve mad it to the start of the weekend and it looks like mother nature is going to throw us one very nice day and one not so nice day. After the run we’ve had… who cares. This has been flat out awesome.

Today features a partly sunny sky with highs in the middle 70s for many areas. I will be watching southeastern Kentucky for the chance for isolated late day and evening showers going up. It’s a small chance, but a chance nonetheless.

Saturday looks even milder with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will gust up a bit as clouds roll in during the afternoon and evening. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that pushes in on Sunday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This is NOT going to be a washout of a day!

Cooler winds will below behind this front with temps heading back into the below normal range early next week…

GFS 2

Just how cool things can get remains to be seen, but a few days in the 60s for highs will be a good bet into the first half of the week.

As you know, I’ve been watching the Gulf of Mexico for the past week or so and talking about the need to keep watching it into late September and early October. The models have been throwing us a lot of head fakes in developing a tropical system down there. The GFS is doing it again…

GFS 3

Why have I been watching this region so closely? Because 1979 is one of the better matches for the pattern we’ve been in for the past few months and it produced a storm that impacted our weather…

Hurricane FredericI’m am NOT saying something like that is going to happen… it’s just one of those interesting things I like to watch for. 1979 was also a very slow Atlantic hurricane season similar to the one we have going on now.

That said… 1979 is slipping a little bit on my analog list as a few other years are trying to jump over it.

Have a great day and take care.

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Random Weather Thoughts

Good Thursday, everyone. The weather is so nice that your friendly weatherdude is having a hard time staying focused. So, this update is likely to have a whole lot of randomness to it. Let’s call it free styling! :)

The weather in the short term continues to about as nice as it gets with upper 60s to low 70s out there today under a mostly sunny sky. The weekend starts with low and mid 70s for Friday with mid and upper 70s to near 80 on Saturday. Winds will gust up with a cold front arriving on Sunday. That leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms going up.

The air behind this continues to look chilly for next week. The GFS Ensemble Mean shows the temperature anomalies in Celsius for the 5 day period…

GFS 2

How cold that air actually gets around here still depends a lot on what happens with the leftovers from the Pacific hurricane across the west and plains. Also, keep a close eye on a possible storm developing off the Carolina coast.

Speaking of the GFS Ensembles, check out the “best match years” for our end of September setup…

CPC

2009 takes the top two spots and that’s a year I have been looking at for the winter ahead. You will also find the bitter winters of 1963 and 1969 on that list. There are 4 years on that list I am looking at for the fall and winter ahead of us. Any guesses on which 4? I already gave ya one!

Maybe I should just scrap looking at past years and go with the two main Almanacs forecast…

Farmers Almanac 1 Farmers Almanac 2Hmmm… that would be a lot less stressful and less time consuming for me to do. But, I think I will keep doing my normal thing.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Next Week Looks Even Colder

Good Wednesday, gang. Our run of October air continues across Kentucky and we are pretty much stuck in this pattern. I know, I know… woe is us, right? Things continue to very nice for the rest of the week before heading into a half and half weekend. Beyond that… even colder air appears to be on the way.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Areas that start with dense fog may take a while to see the sun.

Thursday looks equally as nice with temps in the 40s to start and upper 60s to low 70s to end. It looks like more of the same into Friday as temps come up just a bit. Those numbers will really climb on Saturday with thermometers well into the 70s.

Sunday will find a cold front working our way from the northwest. This front will touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Some of that may take us into Monday as much cooler air filters in from the northwest.

A second front may cross the region later Monday into early Tuesday. That one may unleash even colder air into the middle of next week. Many of the models show the potential for sub 40 degree temps during this time. The GFS is downright cold with low temps…

GFS

The core of the cool looks to be centered right on top of us next week…

GFS 3

Highs in the low to mid 60s are likely for a few days. What’s left of Hurricane Odile is going to get entrained into the pattern across the United States this week into next. What happens with the leftovers will need to be watched as it can greatly impact the overall setup across the country.

Looking farther down the road, the models are trying to key on another deep trough by the following weekend…

Euro 2

That may be followed up by another blast to open October. That’s two weeks away, but the GFS is impressed with the cold…

GFS 2Given the overall look to the pattern and the way the models are trending, the possibility of an early season frost is on the table.

The more things change… ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking More Cool Weather

Good Tuesday, everyone. I said last week that I didn’t think this was a true start to fall here in Kentucky. Mother nature is trying to make a liar out of me (like that would be the first time). Additional shots of chill look to carry us through most of the rest of September.

We do have a cold front on the move across the state today. This is bringing a scattering of showers to the region and is ushering in a reinforcing shot of cool temps. Temps today are going to struggle into the mid and upper 60s for highs into central and eastern Kentucky. Upper 60s to low 70s will be around for the rest of the area.

Current Temperatures

The weather from Wednesday through Friday looks awesome! Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight temps dropping into the 40s. Watch for some foggy mornings.

Saturday looks windy and warmer with temps well into the 70s. Take advantage of that because another cold front arrives Sunday with showers and some thunder. This carries us into Monday as temps take a dive behind the front. The European Model is going crazy with the cold coming in behind this system…

Euro 3That particular model run takes temps into the “crazy below normal” temperature category…

Euro 2I suspect the European Model is overdoing the extent of the cold, but the pattern does favor another run of colder than normal temperatures.

Enjoy your extended fall weather and take care.

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Cool Shots Continue This Week

Good Monday, everyone. A lot of people complain that fall is just too short around this part of the world. Well, mother nature may be trying to lengthen the season this year. We have additional shots of cool air on tap this week. I break those down and take a look at where some things stand as we head deeper into fall and winter.

Today will be the mildest day of the week with temps in the 70s and winds picking up a bit. You will notice some clouds rolling in late in the day from west to east. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that moves through overnight into early Tuesday. That front can spit out a few showers.

Highs Tuesday will be back in the upper 60s for many areas as cooler winds blow in. That should set the stage for another night of 40s for lows…

NAM The cool air continues to funnel into the region from the north and even northeast. This is when a huge blast of chill moves across the Great Lakes into the northeast…

EuroThose setups can feature sneaky cold that the models don’t really pick up on. Heck, the models were awful with our weekend temps. That’s why I tell young forecasters to stop regurgitation what a model says. Look at actual weather maps and what the weather is doing verses what the models say. End of mini-rant. :)

Temps should rebound some by next weekend as more normal air moves in. There is now some indication of another cool shot coming down the pike early next week.

Let’s talk a little fall and winter.

I keep talking and talking about how the overall weather pattern in North America hasn’t really changed much since last fall. That’s when I started picking up on this big warm pool of water of water off the west coast into the Gulf Of Alaska. That forced a huge ridge of high pressure up the west coast into Alaska.

Guess what? That warm pool is still going strong and is forecast to remain there through the upcoming winter…

SSTThrow in a developing weak El Nino and you have the potential for some serious winter weather across the country again this year.

This is also the time of year I start watching the developing snow pack across the northern hemisphere. It’s still very, very early in that game, but it’s above normal for this time of year. This map shows the areas that usually don’t have snow on the ground right now…

Snow CoverWe will have to wait and see how this progresses through October. That’s the month that really matters in the overall development of the snow pack.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The cool weather rolls on

Good Sunday, everyone. Our recent blast of October temps will moderate just a bit in the coming days, but the numbers will still be much cooler than normal. The week ahead weather is pretty clear cut, but what happens after that is still a bit fuzzy to me. Let’s get into it.

Readings this morning will likely be the coldest we’ve had since back in the spring. Many areas should wake up to readings in the 40s and a few spots could drop all the way into the lower 40s. That, at least, puts us within shouting distance of a few records. Areas that see clouds will obviously be several degrees higher than those with clear skies.

Today’s Lows

Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s…

Current Temperatures

Monday will find a milder wind blowing with thermometers returning to the 70s. Clouds will increase and a shower may develop late in the day from west to east. A better chance for scattered showers arrives Monday night and Tuesday. That’s when another front works across the state…

NAM Temps will come back down behind that front with upper 60s to low 70s for highs a good bet into the middle of the week.

The setup by Thursday should feature a huge shot of cold weather coming into the Great Lakes and northeast. That throws some more cooler air our way and could drop those temps just a tad more. Throw in a developing storm across the southeast and we could get a little windy, too…

EuroThis super cool pattern is likely to give way to a more normal brand of September air late next weekend or into the following week. I don’t think we are done with 80 degree temps, by any means.

That said… I continue to keep a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico. One of my top analog years featured something there in late September and the GFS keeps showing something there in the day 10 time period…

GFSOf course, it IS the GFS! Plus, it’s just a thought I’m throwing out there as having a chance at happening. This has been another quiet tropical year, so that certainly doesn’t bode well for that “chance”.

What about the chances for cold and snow this winter? I plan on talking about that with my next update. ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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October Temps Continue

Good Saturday, folks. Our blast of October temperatures rolls on across Kentucky and this looks to settle in for the next week or so. One has to keep in mind, normal highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s for this time of year and we aren’t even close to that.

Highs today will likely stay in the 60s for most of the region. Clouds are going to be awfully tough to break and a scattered shower will still be possible.

Current Temperatures

The skies will try to clear up later tonight into Sunday and that means our temps will likely reach the lowest numbers since the spring. The NAM is forecasting some low to mid 40s by Sunday morning…

NAM 2 A closer inspection shows some upper 30s showing up just north of the Ohio River…

NAM 3Those numbers could put some spots within a few degrees of record lows. Again… we would need clear skies for temps to get that low.

Sunday afternoon looks awesome with upper 60s to low 70s for highs.

Winds will pick up on Monday as another system works in from the west. A shower or two may develop and carry us into Tuesday. This will unleash another much cooler than normal air mass across our region and much of the eastern part of the country…

GFS 3Highs for the middle and latter parts of the week should be back in the upper 60s to low 70s with lows dropping back into the 40s.

Am I the only one loving this kind of weather?

Make it a great day and take care.

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A “Pot Of Chili” ALERT

Pot Of Chili

Good Friday, everyone. The blog has upgraded to a full blown “Pot Of Chili ALERT” for Kentucky. Grocery stores will be packed with people picking up their favorite ingredients. Prepare NOW. :)

It is a nice blast of October temps settling in for the next several days. Unfortunately, our sky could be a whole lot better. We will continue to see a fair amount of clouds and the chance for a shower or two.

That will be the case out there today with temps struggling to get out of the 60s in many areas. Some low 70s will be possible for any area getting in on some breaks in the clouds.

Current Temperatures

A similar setup will be with us on Saturday before more a little more in the way of sunshine takes control for our Sunday. That’s when morning lows could drop into the mid and upper 40s. Again… we would need clear skies for that to happen.

Another system rolls in later Monday into the middle of the week with another chance for showers. That keeps our temps cooler than normal for the rest of the week. After that… we start to see the pattern letting up a bit with the cool weather.

I’ve mentioned for a while on how we need to watch the Gulf later in September for something brewing.  We could get something down there in the next few days. The GFS has another system by next weekend…

GFS

The European Model looks very similar…

EuroAs always… time will tell.

Have a great day making chili and take care.

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Tracking Heavy Rain and Fall Temps

Good Thursday, folks. A powerhouse of a cold front is rolling across Kentucky and is bringing some big time weather changes. Showers and thunderstorms continue to be ahead of this front, but the blast of fall is making headlines behind it.

Let’s start with the shower and thunderstorm threat and roll from there. Heavy rainfall is a good bet and this is likely to cause some local high water issues. Drier and cooler air moves in from west to east later today into tonight. I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

I have made some changes to your Friday forecast. The shower maker I have been hawking for Saturday may arrive a little earlier than I thought. That means scattered showers could be around on Friday…

GFS

That could keep temps down into the middle 60s for areas with full clouds and showers. The threat for showers would hang around into a part of our Saturday. Highs should range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday looks good with similar temps with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows to start the day will likely be in the 40s and we could be there again on Monday.

Another system could bring a few showers our way late Monday into Tuesday. This ushers in a reinforcing shot of below normal temps for the middle of the week…

Euro 2

This cooler than normal pattern should take us through all of next week.

I promised you some winter weather talk and I am a weatherdude of my word… most of the time. :) One of the things I look at when making a winter forecast is the water temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic. They are HUGE drivers of the overall weather pattern across North America. There is a model that looks at the water temps and finds similar years and then spits out a forecast based on that data. Here’s what it shows for the fall and winter temps…CFSKeep in mind… there is a lot more that goes into the mix. But, it does show how the oceans are signalling colder than normal temps.

Back to the weather of today…

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms Usher In A Fall Blast

Good Wednesday, everyone. A powerhouse of a cold front is rolling toward the bluegrass state and will bring a huge change to our weather. A blast of fall air is on tap for late for the weekend into much of next week. Things may get a little bumpy ahead of the front as storms rumble through the region.

Winds will crank and temps will soar into the 80s today. We could see a stray shower or thunderstorm going up, but most of the action will hold off until later tonight and Thursday. This is when a squall line of thunderstorms works in from the northwest. The highest threat for severe weather is just to our west and north, but we need to keep a watch on that setup. Showers and storms will continue into Thursday with the potential for some heavy rain numbers.

Track away…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

A cooler wind will blow behind the front from west to east late Thursday. That sets the stage for a cooler Friday with a mix of sun and clouds.

We’ve touched on the chill down for the weekend and I have no changes in that. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with lows dropping into the 40s.

I’ve also touched on the chance for showers and I’m trying to time these threats a little better. The first one arrives on Saturday…

EuroThe next system may have a little more juice with it as it arrives early next week…

Euro 2

Overall, this is a fall pattern settling in and it’s one that’s a few weeks ahead of schedule.

Some winter talk is on the way with tomorrow’s post. Spread the word.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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