Sunday Afternoon Update

Good late afternoon, gang. Our ugly Super Bowl Sunday rolls on across the bluegrass state as a blizzard rages to our north. The rain continues out there this afternoon before a big temperature drop tonight causes things to ice up a bit for the Monday morning rush.

Temps will stay in the 40s this evening and then drop like the preverbal rock overnight. Check out the temps by Monday morning…

NAM

Throw in a period of light snow and some snow showers, and things could get a little dicey for early morning travel. It might be slipper enough to force some cancellations and delays.

Flurries and snow showers will then give way to some late day clearing with very cold winds blowing.

Nothing has changed with the late Wednesday into Thursday setup. A strong cold front dives in from the northwest and tries to hook up with a storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The models are not hooking these two up, but are pretty close to making a love connection…

Canadian

Canadian

European

Euro

A low along the Gulf coast from 4 days out means Chicago should prepare for another blizzard… right? ;)

Happy Super Bowl Sunday and take care.

34 Comments

Sunday Night Temp Plunge May Cause Issues

Good Sunday and happy Super Bowl. A developing winter storm is sweeping across the Ohio Valley and is bringing a lot of nasty weather with it. We’re on the rainy side of things today, but a rapid temp drop tonight may combine with light snow to produce slick roads early Monday.

January is in the books and temps averaged 1 to 2 degrees below normal for most of the state. Snowfall for many came in under the normal value, but Lexington did finish 2″ above normal.  With December showing up milder and January colder, February will be the deciding month for the winter as a whole. As far as snow goes… a little over a week ago, Boston folks were totally bumming because they had very little snow all winter. They picked up 2 feet this past week and will get another foot or so the next few days. Things can change in a hurry.

This first day of the month offers changeable weather conditions with our storm system rolling right on top of us. Rain and gusty winds will carry us through much of the day as temps increase. That increase will go the other way VERY quickly tonight as the low passes through here. Check out this drop…

NAM

That takes place as soon as the low slides to our east…

GFS

Let’s review… we have a lot of wet roads as temps drop from the 40s into the upper teens and low 20s in just a few hours. Throw in a band of light snow during that drop and you can get roads to ice up pretty darn fast.

Snow showers and flurries would take us through midday Monday.

From there, we watch the middle and end of the week to see if a system working in from the northwest can pick up a storm developing in the gulf…

Canadian

I will have updates later today. I leave you with your tracking tools…

Have a great day and take care.

37 Comments

Your Super Bowl Sunday Forecast In Song

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s a little different twist on your Super Bowl Sunday forecast…

Ok, so the last one is kind of a joke, But, you will get some snow Sunday night into Monday morning. :)

Smile a little bit, people!

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

 

57 Comments

Super Bowl Sorrow For Snow Lovers

Good Saturday, folks. Our Ohio Valley winter storm is still on track and that track appears to be right on top of the bluegrass state. That’s a path that isn’t good news to snow lovers across our region. It doesn’t mean we won’t get some snow from this storm, it just means the big deal snows will likely fall to our north.

Some thoughts…

- Clouds will roll across the state today and we could see a touch of light snow and light rain develop from west to east this evening into tonight. That will be interesting to see how that leading band develops.

- Low pressure is likely to track right on top of us for Super Bowl Sunday. It is interesting to note, the Canadian Model did slip a little farther to the south from it’s earlier run…

Canadian

- Still, it looks like any overnight and Sunday morning mix would go quickly to all rain with gusty winds joining the mix during the day.

- As the low goes by, temps crash hard Sunday night with a period of snow likely into Monday morning. Temps may drop into the teens by then. After all that rain and some snow coming down… a quick ice up of roads will be very possible.

- Light snow would make the transition to snow showers on Monday as very cold temps and windy weather make for a nasty day.

That’s how things look right now… does that totally rule out the potential for this thing to come back to the south some? No, but the odds of that happening this late in the game are very small.

Looking down the road toward Wednesday and Thursday… the models give snow lovers another chance at disappointment…

The Canadian.

Canadian 2

GFS

GFS 2

At least that storm is starting out on the Gulf Coast and would have plenty of room to trend northward. ;)

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

76 Comments

Friday Evening Update

 Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for another quick update on the winter storm blowing into the Ohio Valley late this weekend. Here ya go…

- A period of light snow may develop from west to east Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Our storm system continues to look to take a northern track across the bluegrass state. That would push the main impact from snow to our north…

SPECIAL

- Rain Sunday afternoon and evening would then change to snow Sunday night into Monday. That’s when accumulations will be very possible.

- Arctic cold funnels in here for Monday on a strong northwesterly wind flow.

Can the track of the low still change? Yes, but all signs currently point toward the low coming right across Kentucky.

A full update comes your way tonight. Take care.

51 Comments

Quick Thoughts On The Weekend

Good Friday afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries continue to wind down and now it’s time to fully focus on our Super Bowl Sunday storm system. We’re just now getting within the 48 hour window I’ve been yapping about all week. This is the time to really concentrate on model trends.

The first set of runs during this window are showing a low tracking right over Kentucky. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

That is not a very strong low at all and the track of weaker lows have a tendency to change because it doesn’t take much to push them around. As is, the above model shows snow to rain to snow…

GFS 2

That would take the best snows north of the Ohio River, but would still bring the risk of accumulating snows to the entire state.

The Canadian Model has adopted the Kentucky low scenario…

Canadian

That also features a weak low that would produce similar results to what the GFS shows.

It’s worth repeating… the track of those weak lows will often show up differently than modeled as we get closer. Tonight’s runs should really shed much more light on that possibility.

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

102 Comments

Tracking The Weekend Potential

Good Friday to one and all. We have snow showers and flurries flying around across parts of the region early today. This action will give way to a bigger potential lurking for Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday. How high that threat is where you live is the million dollar question. Buckle up and let’s get after it.

Snow showers this morning can cause some light accumulations that can create slick spots on area roads. This isn’t a widespread accumulating snow, but more of a local scale event since we are dealing with snow SHOWERS. You can get snow to coat one part of town with the other side of town seeing nothing… it’s one of those deals. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Let’s get into the late weekend potential. The model that showed the best consistency from yester morning to last night was the Canadian Model. It continues with the southern tracking low across the Tennessee Valley…

Canadian

A track like that would put down a healthy swath of accumulating snow across the bluegrass state…

Canadian 2Before you fall head over heels in love with our neighbor to the north, you should check out the GFS. The model continues to show a different solution with each and every run it spits out. The latest run is a little farther north with the low over Kentucky…

GFS

That setup would take the heaviest snows north of the Ohio River with rain changing to accumulating snow on the backside of the departing storm. Again… the GFS has shown every solution possible with this storm. That does not mean the above solution won’t work out, but give us some consistency!!

It’s really not like any of the models are a model of consistency. The European Model has jumped around just as much, but the latest run is close to what the GFS is showing…

EuroLet me repeat myself for the millionth time this week… don’t get caught up on the changes with each model run. Today will bring us to within 48 hours of the event and this is when we should start to see more consistency with each model. I suspect that may not come until the evening runs, but we shall see how things look with the 12z run.

It all boils down to this: If you want a big snow here in Kentucky, you want the low to stay on a southern track across Tennessee. If you don’t want a lot of snow, you want the low to move right on top of us. Which one of those wins out? That’s the question we will try to answer later today, but it is a very fine line the models are walking with either solution.

Personally, I would take somewhere in between. The snow lover in me would like some snow, but the “I don’t want to have to go to work on Super Bowl Sunday for the second year in a row” side of me hopes we don’t get a lot. Oh, the internal conflict!! ;)

I leave you with some toys to track our early day shot of snow showers…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown

I-65 MP 32

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

 

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

See you later today with updates. Take care.

90 Comments

Thursday Evening Update

Good Thursday evening. Temps are taking a big tumble as snow showers and flurries get set to take over parts of central and eastern Kentucky. That could cause some issues for Friday morning travelers. That’s a smaller story compared to what looks to be heading our way by Super Bowl Sunday.

I am thisclose to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat. That will likely happen tonight if things continue to look like they do now. How do they look at the moment? The WPC has already placed much of the region in a slight to moderate risk of 4″+ of snow by Sunday evening…

HPCThat doesn’t include anything that falls Sunday night into Monday.

Here’s a preview of what some of the models are saying…

The European Model snowfall forecast…

EuroThe European Ensembles are just a tad farther south with the heavy snow band…

Euro 2What if both of those are a little too far north with all that? I’m beginning to think that’s a real possibility. We’re seeing a trend developing with the track of the low. One that takes this storm northeast into Tennessee and then due eastward with even a fade toward the southeast once it gets to the Smokies. The Canadian Model was showing that earlier today and the GFS is heading that way…

GFS GFS 2I don’t put much stock in the NAM until within a day or so of an event, but it is doing something similar with the low by Sunday night…

NAMMoral of the story… the potential for a winter storm to impact our region is increasing for Sunday and early Monday. I will update things and may pull the trigger later tonight. ;)

Enjoy the evening and take care.

99 Comments

Super Bowl Sunday Snow Potential

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. Our weekend is just around the corner and it appears the odds for snow are increasing across our region. We have a couple of systems to watch. One is blowing through here now and will bring snow showers tonight and early Friday. The other is the Super Bowl storm system we’ve been tracking here for more than a week.

Winds will continue to crank this afternoon as temps spike then crash behind a cold front. A few showers will be with us and those will change to snow showers late this evening. A northwesterly wind flow will set up and that’s likely to bring a decent period of snow showers and flurries late tonight into Friday morning.

Some light accumulations will be possible across the central and east…

GFS Snow

Another morning of slick roads will be possible. Temps on Friday will drop through the 20s  with teens for wind chill readings.

That brings us to the weekend storm system. The Canadian Model had been the lone holdout in taking our low farther north into the Ohio Valley. That changed with the latest run…

Canadian

Canadian 2It’s only one run of one model, so temper those expectations. ;)

The GFS continues to go back and forth a bit with how it wants to play the system. Here’s the latest snowfall map from that model…

GFS Snow 2

As I’ve been saying for the past few days, let’s get this thing inside 48 hours to see what kind of continuity we’re getting from the models. Throwing snowfall forecasts out there at this point would be absurd. Do we have the potential for a winter storm? Yes. Is it a for sure thing? No.

Very cold air follows that up for Monday and Tuesday and then another system tries to take aim at us by the middle of the week. That one will have even colder air to work with.

I leave you with regional radar…

Another update comes later today. Take care.

88 Comments

Winter Coming On Strong

Good Thursday and welcome to a very active day of weather. We have a potent system dropping in from the northwest and this cause some wild swings out there. All of this continues to be part of a very active winter period and it’s about to kick it up a notch. Super Bowl Sunday continues to look very, very interesting. More on that in a bit.

First things first and that’s the clipper system diving across the Ohio Valley today. I’ve pretty much covered all the basics of this for several days now, but here’s a breakdown of what to expect.

- The day may start with a band of showers across central and northern Kentucky. The ground is frozen, so watch for the potential for some icy spots… especially in the north.

- Temps will quickly rise toward 50 by late morning and early afternoon as winds crank to 35mph to 40mph at times.

- The front swings through and our temps drop quickly from northwest to southeast. Readings will drop through the 30s this evening with some rain and snow showers.

- A better shot of snow showers and flurries will be with us overnight into early Friday. That could cause some minor accumulations across the central and east.

- Friday’s a very cold day with temps mainly in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Ok, let’s get to what you are all waiting for… the potential for snow on Super Bowl Sunday. We are still outside of my 48 hour window of when I expect the models to lock on to one solution. The GFS still hasn’t spit out the same solution twice, but it’s latest run has snow lovers going crazy…

GFS

GFS Snow 2

The European Model isn’t as snowy as the GFS, but it is still showing a similar look…

Euro

Euro 2That run is very close to becoming a bigger event on a similar scale to what the GFS is showing.

I’m going to say the exact same thing I’ve said for days now (stop me if you’ve heard this one before), don’t get too caught up one run of any one model. Obviously, if the above solutions work out,  we would have a healthy snowstorm around here. Again… temper your emotions for a bit longer until we can get a little more consistency in the model runs.

If we can put snow on the ground this weekend, temps by Monday and Tuesday could drop toward single digits or even below zero.

Another snow maker will try to develop by the middle of next week with another one trying to pop a few days later. Each will have the potential to tap additional arctic temps.

I will have updates later today. Take care.

70 Comments