Time posted: 1:42 am

Active Fall Pattern Takes Shape

Good Tuesday, everyone. The much anticipated fall feel has arrived in the bluegrass state, and will stick around for a while. As a matter of fact, the overall pattern now looks very much like fall, and has the chance to really crank it up over the next few weeks.

Temps today will be in the 40s to start with upper 60s and low 70s for highs. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted, but I can’t rule out a shower.

Scattered showers increase on Wednesday as a BIG upper level low cuts off across the region. Watch this bad boy settle in right on top of us…


That spells an increase in showers and scattered thunderstorms for the second half of the week into the start of the weekend…


That’s from the European Mode, and the GFS has decided to jump onboard…


I’m wondering if we can get a cold air funnel out of this? Hmmm

Here’s the deal, any day that keeps clouds and showers around will have temps struggling to get out of the 50s. The GFS highs for Friday…


Cooler than normal temps remain into the coming weekend as the upper low slowly moves away. While temps may rebound some early next week, I don’t see anything to get worked up about as the pattern really gets busy.

Matthew is developing in the Caribbean and will work toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico or off the southeastern coast. The overall development and path of Matthew will be huge in the overall pattern next week.

The latest European model for the middle of next week shows another deep trough digging into the middle of the country, with Matthew crossing Cuba…



That’s a heck of a look and the GFS has something similar trying to happen. Watch how the deep trough digging through here catches Matthew along the east coast…


Again, there is a very large spread on where Matthew can go. Anywhere from the Gulf to up the east coast, but there seems to be a growing threat for some kind of impact.

There is also the threat for some pretty good cold shots to show up across the central and eastern parts of the country over the next few weeks. When, where and how cold may be decided by what Matthew does.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:38 am

Pot Of Chili ALERT


Good Monday, everyone. We are now in full blown POT OF CHILI ALERT mode! This is not a drill!!  You should immediately head to your local grocery store and stock up on all chili making ingredients.  Just make sure to tweet me a pic of what ya got cookin’.

A strong fall cold front is working from west to east across the state today. Some gusty showers and thunderstorms will be along and ahead of this front, but don’t expect a whole lot of rain. We may see a greater than 20 degree difference on either side of this front, with temps dropping through the 60s later this afternoon.

Readings by Friday morning will drop into the 40s.

Upper 60s to low 70s will be common for highs on Tuesday as we watch a potent upper level low drop in here from the northwest on Wednesday. That system is likely to cutoff right on top of the region and could hang around a while. The European Model keeps this system through next Monday…


That type of pattern would bring lots of showers and chilly air.

The European shows the showers beginning to develop on Wednesday…


Now, watch the action really crank up from Thursday through Saturday…


I’ve seen similar upper lows this time of year produce enough clouds and showers to keep highs in the 50s. Even without clouds and showers, temps are going to struggle to get out of the 60s.

Ya gotta love this time of year! I’ll be looking for your chili tweets later today and throughout the week. Make it a great Monday and take care.


Time posted: 12:55 am

Fall Chill For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a big blast of fall slated to blow into the bluegrass state on Monday. This setup will give us some chilly temps, and we have the potential for an upper level low to camp out across the region for a stretch.

Our cold front arrives on Monday with some gusty showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Temps will be warmest in the east, but will drop quickly as the showers set in. We could see a 20 degree spread from east to west along this boundary.

From there, it’s game on for some very chilly air to move in. The NAM is now showing lows around the 40 degree mark by Tuesday morning…


Skies have to be clear for that to happen, but it’s still going to be jacket weather!

Highs on Tuesday may not get to 70 degrees for many areas. The conditions for the rest of the week will be determined by the upper low. The European is back to showing this system being right on top of us by the middle of the week…


That could give is a shower or two and act to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The cutoff low then strengthens and works back toward the west by Friday and Saturday. Check out the increase in showers during this time…


Any day that features clouds and showers can be VERY chilly. Even with sun, the best we could get may be low and middle 70s.

The European Model continues to show that same low showing up nearby into early next week…


If we see that hanging around, that’s still a cool looking setup into the first few days of October.

It’s at this point we find the models continuing to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and taking it into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the GFS does this…


One of my early analog years for the fall and winter is 1995. That year featured Hurricane Opal taking a similar path during the first week of October…


Just something interesting to note.

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:12 am

A Pot Of Chili Watch


Good Saturday, everyone. It may seem odd to issue a Pot Of Chili Watch on a day with temps nearing 90, but we’ve never been accused of being normal around here. 🙂 A big blast of fall temps arrives Monday and carries us through the week ahead.

This front will work quickly from west to east on Monday, with a gusty band of showers and storms along it…


That is a CLASSIC fall storm system and cold front, and will cause a huge drop in temps as the day wears on Monday.

Highs from Tuesday through Thursday should hit the upper 60s to low 70s for many. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s…


That is going to feel absolutely amazing!!

While the numbers will rebound by next weekend, don’t expect anything close to where we have been over the past few weeks.

From there, the pattern into the first week of October suggests the potential for a big tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Several recent runs of the GFS have been showing something…


The model has actually been pretty good with tropical signals from a week or two away. Well over a week ago, it was showing something trying to head toward the southeastern coast. That system is actually Hurricane Karl that’s near Bermuda, so it did pretty good in recognizing the overall pattern.

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 2:16 am

Summer Sizzle To Fizzle Into Fall

Good Friday, folks. We are all dealing with the summer sizzle, but hoping to see it fizzle into fall. That looks to be the case FINALLY as we head into next week. Until then, let’s relax and enjoy more of the same into the coming weekend.

Temps push 90 today into Saturday. Yawn.

The change starts Monday as showers and storms increase ahead of a strong cold front. The GFS (gulp) has been most consistent with this slowly pushing across the region and being the wettest of the bunch…


That has some decent rains across the region through early Wednesday, but other models are not as bullish on those rain amounts.

All of them have the real deal chill. Check out the GFS numbers for late Tuesday afternoon…


High temps behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday struggle to get out of the 60s…


The European Model agrees…


The model places the core of the coolest anomalies right on top of us…


Pot of Chili alert? 🙂

Have a great day and take care.