Time posted: 1:37 am

Tracking A Frost Threat Before The Warm Up

Good Thursday to one and all. Another storm system is taking aim at the bluegrass state today, bringing additional rains for a few. After this goes through, a cold front drops in here on Friday, ushering in another chill in the air for the weekend. We even have an increasing threat for frost.

Today’s system is working across the Tennessee Valley, throwing a few showers into, especially the southern half of the state. That system will then lift northeast across the Appalachian Mountains this evening, bringing the rain a little deeper into eastern Kentucky. Track the drops…

Farther north, you won’t see much, if any, rain today. Temps will be all over the place, with 50s under the rain and mid to upper 60s with the dry weather. A local 70 may show up if you can get enough sun.

Another cold front moves in on Friday, bringing the chance for a shower or storm. Winds will be gusty with highs in the 60s. Much cooler than normal temps arrive behind this front for the weekend. Daytime highs are general in the 60s with very gusty winds. There’s even the chance for a stray shower in the east.

Green thumbs are on high alert for Sunday morning as lows may drop below freezing…

Cool winds on Sunday will keep temps in the upper 50s and low 60s for much of central and eastern Kentucky, with middle 60s west…

Temps finally take off on Monday and that kicks off a warm Kentucky Derby week. Highs may reach 80 on a few occasions by the middle of the week, but it’s not going to last. A cold front may make a run at us by Derby Weekend, with a severe threat ahead of it and cool air behind it. Watch the forecast temperature anomalies…

Shades of 2004 are trying to show up as we inch closer to summer.

I will have another update today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:37 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Clouds continue to be rather stubborn across parts of the region, as our temps continue to run below normal. That’s a trend that will carry us through the weekend, with even chillier temps on the way. Beyond that, things get much, much warmer for Kentucky Derby week.

Some of the clouds out there this evening continue to produce come mist or some out and out shower action in the east…

Later tonight, another low pressure zips out of Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley, turning the corner up the Appalachian Mountains. This brings rain back into the region, especially across the south and east…

Some locally heavy rain numbers are showing up across the mountains  of southeastern Kentucky…

As you can see, the farther north, the better in terms of your Thursday weather. Highs will stay in the 50s for areas getting rain, with low 60s outside the drops. Normal highs are now creeping into the low 70s.

Another cold front drops in late Friday, bringing a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be rather gusty, with… Wait for it… Wait for it… another shot of chill for the weekend. Watch how the temps continue to run much colder than normal…

As a matter of fact, a frost is likely by Sunday morning. There is even the chance for temps to head below freezing and that’s showing up on the GFS…

Temps hit the 70s by Monday, with the potential for 80 degree highs by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also likely kick off a pattern conducive for thunderstorms to develop…

Those storms may be something we have to deal with in the lead up to Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days.

If you’re wondering if this warmer pattern is here to stay… My answer is no. I would not be surprised to see another frost threat into the first half of May. 🙁

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:31 am

Unsettled Weather Before A Warm Surge

Good Wednesday, everyone. We are rolling our way toward a MUCH warmer pattern finally settling into our part of the world. Before we can get to that point, we have some more unsettled weather to go through. This means additional rounds of some showers and storms through Friday.

Low clouds will hang around today, with some leftover showers slow to give up…

Temps will range from the upper 50s with clouds to 60-65 for areas seeing some rays of sunshine.

Another system rolls across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, throwing more clouds and some showers into southern  Kentucky…

Temps will be cooler than normal again, especially in the south.

A cold front drops in on Friday, bringing gusty winds and isolated showers and thunderstorms. This reinforces our colder than normal temps through the weekend…

A kiss of frost possible by Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s…

This leads us into Kentucky Derby week and a HUGE ridge of high pressure. Temps may make a run at the low 80s for a few days next week…

Thunderstorms will then come crashing in toward the end of the week into Derby Weekend and that’s an increasing concern of mine.

The lid is about to com off the severe weather season around here. When it goes, I expect some pretty big events.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:32 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. To say the past few days have been soggy would be a huge understatement, and the rains continue to fall. Many areas have picked up, at least, a few inches of rain since Sunday, and we will continue to add to that this evening.

Better weather does blow into town for the next few days, with a big warm surge sweeping in late this weekend into Kentucky Derby week.

Before we get to all that, let’s track some more shower action…

We will continue to fight some clouds and isolated showers on Wednesday, likely keeping temps from getting to 60 in some areas.

The promising look for Thursday is much less promising now, with another wave of low pressure skirting across the Tennessee Valley. That may throw some rain back into parts of the region, keeping temps solidly below normal. This would be ahead of another shower and thunderstorm maker showing up on Friday, as we get our quick-hitting dip in the jet stream…

Winds will be a little cool this weekend, but skies will slowly clear, leading to some better conditions.

Much warmer air then moves in for next week as a big ridge of high pressure takes control of our weather. Temps should make a run at the 80s…

Thunderstorms will then crash the party late in the week and those may impact Kentucky Derby weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

A Much Warmer Setup Ahead

Good Tuesday, everybody. Heavy rain continues to target our region today, but I’m looking ahead toward a warmer overall look. That’s a long overdue look and it should be arriving just in time to kick off the month of May and Kentucky Derby week.

Let’s get things started with the heavy rains falling our there today. Our slow-moving area of low pressure continues to spin across Kentucky. Ahead of this, a comma looking band of showers and thunderstorms may be putting down enough water to cause some issues…

The rains will slowly end on Wednesday, as temperatures stay cooler than normal. Some late day sun will boost temps into the 60s for several areas.

Thursday looks awesome with highs ranging from 65-70 degrees with mostly sunny skies.

The upper level system diving in here on Friday continues to look more progressive and less impressive…

Notice how that no longer closes off, but zips in and out without a lot of fanfare.  A few gusty showers will be noted, with just a few hours of chill coming Friday night and Saturday morning.

Watch how quickly a big ridge takes over by Sunday…

That should bring the 70s in here VERY quickly, with nice weather settling in. This is out longest and strongest stretch of true spring weather, so far. That ridge really pops into Kentucky Derby Week…

As I’ve mentioned for a few days, 80+ degree temps are likely to show up under that type of ridge. You can also see a deep western trough on the above map. In between the two, some big thunderstorms may roam. Watch how that pushes farther east by Derby weekend…

That setup can bring severe weather from the plains into the Ohio Valley at some point next week. This has been a very, very odd severe weather season across the country. Even as cold as it has been in Kentucky, we have still had 22 tornadoes already, which is way above normal for this time period. That’s 22 more tornadoes than Oklahoma and Kansas COMBINED. That’s right, the heart of tornado alley has not had a single tornado and the month of April is a week from wrapping up. That’s insane.

Kentucky’s 22 tornadoes are second only to Alabama’s 30.

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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