Time posted: 2:30 am

Winter Storm ALERT

Good Friday, everyone. We continue to track another winter storm toward the bluegrass state, as we upgrade to a Winter Storm ALERT. This means confidence has increased for a 4″ or greater snowfall for parts of the region. This is our third winter storm in less than 2 weeks.

Here’s the infamous First Call For Snowfall…

Make sure to read the headlines on the map. Those give you a littler better insight about the challenges and caveats of the forecast. I will be updating the call throughout the day.

The latest model trends are similar in showing where the heaviest snows may setup, but may be just a smidge farther south than what I am showing…




The NAM is coming back south, but is likely overdone with precipitation amounts…

Here are the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories…

Outside of the narrow corridor of snow, heavy rainfall is likely. A general 1″-2″ of rain will be noted and that could cause some local high water issues. Rumbles of thunder may also be noted as the system moves through here.

The temperature gradient is going to be amazing, with 70 or better showing up in the far southwestern part of the state, with low and middle 30s in the north and east. Ouch.

The pattern into next week will feature milder temps, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to increase. That may be followed by another cold setup developing for early April. At this point, if it snows during the first part of April, do not be surprised.

#teamspring continues to take a good old fashion whoopin!

I will update things later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.


Time posted: 7:21 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the Winter Storm THREAT for parts of the region to start the upcoming weekend.

In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts haven’t changed, with the greatest threat for heavy snow across the north and northeast. That said, the model trend, sans the NAM, has been nudging this thing a little farther south.

The European Model precipitation type shows the fine line we are walking, between heavy rain an heavy snow. Notice there is only a VERY narrow band of mixed rain and snow, with a touch of sleet to start…

This is not a freezing rain setup.

Here’s the snow map from that run of the European…

The European Ensembles have a similar placement…

The GFS has a similar placement for the heaviest snows…

The afternoon run of the RGEM (short range Canadian) only goes out through midday Saturday, and is very similar to the European…

Last night, and countless times over the years, I talked about the NAM overdoing Warm Air Advection. That’s a well known bias of the model, which usually results in precipitation being too far north. After a normal looking 12z run, the 18z run blew up to the north…

Again, that looks too far north and too widespread because the model overdoes Warm Air Advection.

My earlier thoughts remain my current thoughts on the areas most at risk…

Here is a look at the Winter Storm Watch for the north…

I should have a First Call For Snowfall late tonight. Have a great evening and take care.


Time posted: 12:49 pm

Updating The Winter Storm THREAT

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s our third Winter Storm THREAT in less than two weeks, and it’s a system poised to bring a swath of heavy snow to part of the region. The impact time is late Friday night through Saturday and Saturday night.

I’ve set the stage for this potential all week long, with a MEGA temperature gradient feeding low pressure moving in from the northwest.

Here’s the risk area I put out last night on WKYT…

My current THREAT map focuses a little farther south…

In a setup like this, you have to anticipate additional trends in the models. The morning model trend was farther south, and that’s why I’m giving myself additional wiggle room on that map.

A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued across northern Kentucky, but we will need additional counties to be added to this farther south into Kentucky and all the way into West Virginia…

I mentioned the models have shifted south, all showing the heaviest snow along and south of the Ohio River…




A few thoughts:

  • Additional model trends are very likely, with the heavy snow swath shifting a little south or north.
  • At this point in the game, a massive shift is not very likely.
  • Heavy, wet snow will be noted within the above corridor. Several inches will be possible.
  • You will also note the SUPER sharp cutoff on the southern and northern edges of the snow swath. A few miles could make all the difference in the world between a cold rain and thumping snow.
  • Outside of the narrow swath of heavy snow, heavy rain will fall. 1″-2″ of rain may cause local high water issues. Some thunder is also possible, even with the snow.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 2:35 am

Winter Storm THREAT For Saturday

Good Thursday, folks. March has been nothing short of incredible, with significant amounts of snow and very cold temps, and it’s not done just yet. Another system threatens to bring a swath of very heavy snow to parts of the state on Saturday, and that’s why we are back into another Winter Storm THREAT.

The weather out there today is nice, with  highs reaching the 40s in the central and east, with near 60 degrees in the west. Skies are sunny… Enjoy.

Friday will find temps in the 40s across the far north and northeast, with temps in the 60 degree range in the west. Temps may hit 50 or so in between those two.

That same temperature gradient becomes even stronger on Saturday. We may see a 40 degree temp swing across the state…

Low pressure rides that boundary and feeds on the mega gradient, producing a lot of precipitation. A swath of VERY heavy snow will be noted on the northern edge of the precip shield, and that may very well impact the northern half of the state. Here’s the Winter Storm THREAT area…

Those lines may go north or come a little farther south as we get closer, and can get a better handle on the EXACT track of the low. For now, I feel pretty good with the outlined areas.

The models are very similar to my map. The latest European Model has come south some…


The NAM usually overdoes the warm air advection early on, as it loses it, it corrects south a bit.


In addition to the snow threat in the north and northeast, we may also deal with some local high water issues developing across the rest of the state. A general 1″-2″ of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts…



The setup for next week turns milder, but we are likely to see additional rounds of showers and storms moving in. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get into another high water threat or two.

Looking even farther down the road, another much colder than normal period looks possible to close out March and begin April. Sigh.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.


Time posted: 7:30 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Snow continues to SLOWLY wind down across central and eastern Kentucky, with a frigid night settling in behind it. As this happens, we will quickly turn our attention toward another possible winter storm impacting the region on Saturday.

Before we get to that, let’s track what’s left of the current winter storm…

Lows tonight drop deep into the upper teens and low 20s in many areas, with gusty winds making it feel a lot colder. The rest of Thursday looks good with plenty of sunshine and temps hitting the 40s across the central and east. 60 is possible in the far west.

Clouds increase on Friday, ahead of a potent system diving in from the northwest. This has a MEGA temp gradient to work with and that means it will produce a ton of precipitation. We’re likely to see a swath of VERY heavy snow setting up near or on top of northern and northeastern Kentucky.

The European Model has a crusher…

It is backed up by the average of the 51 member European Ensembles…

The GFS is basically in lock step with the European Model…

The GFS Ensembles show the same track for heavy snow…

A few thoughts:

  • First and foremost, those are computer forecast models and not a forecast from me.
  • Any deviation in the track of the low may push that heavy snow band farther north or farther south.
  • Areas of northern and northeastern Kentucky need to pay very close attention to upcoming forecasts. That much snow could cause big issues.
  • Temps on Saturday may reach the low 70s in far west, and stay in the 30s for much of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Outside the areas getting in on the POTENTIAL for snow, heavy rains will be noted. A general 1″-2″ of rain is possible.
  • Thunderstorms are possible in the west.

Just… Wow.

An upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat is very likely tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.