Winter Weather Tracker

Happy Halloween! The forecast continues to remain on target with a blast of winter weather blowing into the bluegrass state. The action begins this evening and continues into Saturday across central and eastern Kentucky. I have the blog set up for all your tracking needs.

Some quick thoughts:

- The big drop in temps will take place behind the front that passes through here late afternoon and early evening.

- Winds will really crank behind the front with 35mph gusts possible this evening. That’s when temps drop into the 30s and snow mixes in with the rain.

- The models are still VERY enthusiastic in developing a band of moderate to heavy snow across central and eastern Ky overnight into early Saturday.

- Lingering snow showers and flurries will last through Saturday in the east and southeast.

- Some slushy accumulations are likely across much of the area into Saturday morning. Yes, we will have a lot of melting snow, but it should fall hard enough to overcome some of that. Throw in temps going below freezing overnight and light accumulations look good, especially on the grass and elevated surfaces. Here’s the latest call…

Special I will have the Final Call For Snowfall on WKYT-TV starting at 4. I leave you with the tracking tools…

Current Temperatures

Sustained Winds

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

Happy Halloween and Happy snow tracking. Take care.

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Old Man Winter Crashes Halloween

Good Friday and Happy Halloween. Vampires, witches and werewolves are the usual suspects that put a scare in folks on this big day. This year, there’s a new face crashing the party… Old Man Winter. A big blast of winter weather blows in later today and takes us into the start of November.

We have an arctic front moving into the region from the northwest. Temps ahead of this front will spike toward the upper 40s and low 50s into early this afternoon. Once the front passes… temps take a big plunge and will wind up in the 30s this evening…

GFS 3

Rain showers will be noted along and ahead of this front, but we will see some flakes mixing in this afternoon in the west. Radar may not look very impressive early on, but you will see rain and snow expand quickly later on.

As the colder air wins out, rain changes to wet snow this evening with a moderate band of snow working in later tonight into early Saturday…

GFS

The models even suggest some snow showers and flurries linger through much of the day across the eastern half of the state. The GFS even has some of that hanging into early Saturday evening…

GFS 2With more clouds and flakes lingering deeper into the day, high temps on the GFS have come down several degrees…

GFS 4

Forecast lows by Sunday morning are WAY down into the 20s for many areas…

GFS 5

What about the snowfall potential? I firmly believe many areas of central and eastern Ky. will have a slushy covering of snow show up tonight into Saturday morning. While the highest totals will be across the far southeast, it’s possible for other areas pick up around an inch or even a little more…

Special

The models are suggesting higher totals than what I currently have forecast. The mild ground temps will melt a lot of the snow, but if it falls hard enough, it can overcome that for a while. Much of what sticks will be on the grass and rooftops. Roads should mainly stay wet, but a slick spot on bridges or overpasses will be possible Saturday morning as temps dip below freezing.

I will have a final call for snowfall coming up this afternoon. I will also get you a full suite of tracking toys. For now, you get this…

Current temperatures

Check back for updates and enjoy the day. Take care.

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Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s going to snow across much of the region over the next few days. The question I continue to have is… how much? This would be a lot easier question to answer later in the season, but it’s October. The mild ground makes it a much tougher call.

I continue to believe southeastern Kentucky has the best chance at picking up on several inches of snow. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is already out for our far southeastern counties…

Special1

I have no changes to the evolution of this system Friday into Saturday. The “how much” question will be the one I focus on going forward. Here’s a look at the first “First Call For Snowfall” map of the season…

Special

If the ground were colder, those numbers would be higher. Some of the latest models suggest it snows hard enough to overcome that mild ground. The GFS is dropping the hammer on eastern Kentucky…

GFSThe pure dynamics with this upper level system digging in should be able to create some moderate to heavy bands of snow Friday night and Saturday morning. If I get the sense these snows can overcome the warm ground, then my totals may have to go up.

I will have a new call for snowfall on WKYT-TV tonight and 11 and on the blog late tonight.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Update On The Winter Weather Potential

Good afternoon, all. All signs continue to point toward a decent blast of winter blowing into the bluegrass state late Halloween into Saturday. The latest run of the NAM really supports the idea of wraparound snows late tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

Watch how the band builds in from northwest to southeast…

NAMWherever that band sets up could pick up on some quick accumulating snows. The snowfall map from the NAM looks like this…

NAM 2That is likely overdone in central Kentucky because of the mild ground and melting. I also think it’s a little undercooked across southeastern parts of the state.

I’m probably closer to the GFS snowfall forecast…

GFS

A few thoughts:

- Temps still look to surge toward 50 before crashing down from west to east Friday afternoon. Gusty showers will be around and a rumble of thunder is even possible.

- Trick or treat hours will find temps dropping through the 30s with gusty winds and some rain and snow filling the air.

- Wraparound band of snow moves in Friday night into Saturday morning across central and eastern Kentucky. That’s the one that could drop some light accumulations on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. I will have a First Call For Snowfall coming up on WKYT-TV starting at 4. I’ll put that on the blog and adjust as needed later this evening.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking A Halloween Blast Of Winter

Good Thursday, everyone. Our first taste of winter is about to blow into the bluegrass state… just in time for Halloween. Rain, snow, gusty winds and December-like temperatures will be with us as we close our October and say hello to November.

I continue to be impressed by the upper level system dropping in Friday into Saturday. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a system that originated in the arctic take a path from the Great Lakes to Myrtle Beach (certainly not this time of year)…

NAM

That’s a very dynamic system that will provide the atmosphere with a ton of rising air and wild weather. Temps just ahead of this will spike toward 50 early Friday afternoon. The cold air will then sweep in here with a 10-20 degree drop in just a matter of hours. Temps in the 30s are likely for many of the kids making their candy rounds…

NAM

Winds will really increase as that arctic front slams through here. Showers will be likely along and directly behind this front with some thunder possible.

The temp drop will occur from the top down and that means we can get a touch of sleet or graupel with surface temps as high as the low 40s. As those temps drop into the 30s, snowflakes will begin to show up…

GFS 2

Here’s a little better depiction of the Halloween evening map from the GFS…

GFS

We will need to pay attention to that band of snow showing up from Lake Michigan into Indiana. That rotates in here Friday night and could cause some minor accumulations. A lot of the snow that falls will melt because of the mild ground temperatures. Anything that sticks would be mainly on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. The best chance still appears to be in the high elevations across southeastern Kentucky. Those folks could see some out and out snow accumulations…

Special1As you can see, there’s no reason to stock up on bread and milk… well, unless you’re out of both. :)

Temps continue to look very cold with readings by Saturday morning in the upper 20s to around 30. Gusty winds will make it feel closer to 20. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 30s to low 40s with some leftover flakes into the afternoon in the east.

Next week will feature another system bringing chilly showers late Tuesday into Wednesday with the potential for another big buckle in the jet stream by the end of the week…

GFS 4

I will have updates coming your way later today. Enjoy the day and take care.

9 Comments

Wednesday Evening Update

Good Wednesday, folks.  Your friendly weatherdude is dropping by for another update on the increasing threat for wintry weather this Halloween weekend.

At this point, it’s pretty much a given that the first flakes of the season will fly. The question becomes, can we get some accumulations? The short answer is yes… for some.

It’s October and we still have a wet ground so a lot of what falls will melt. That doesn’t mean we can get some slushy accumulation on elevated and grassy surfaces. Here’s my first threat outlook…

Special1Areas across southeastern Kentucky have the potential to pick up more than just a grassy coating. The potential is there for some decent totals, especially in the mountains. The WPC has the area highlighted for the potential of 4:+ of snow…

HPC

The latest run of the NAM went a little overboard with totals down there…

NAMI am nowhere near ready to buy anything like that, but I will keep watching the progression of this vigorous system. It’s a very extreme setup that can lead to extreme weather for some.

The latest GFS snowfall forecast is a little more spread out with the flakes…

GFS

Take care.

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Halloween Snow Update

Good Wednesday afternoon, gang. The forecast continues to point toward a very wintry blast blowing in for Halloween. This will be complete with rain to snow, crashing temps, gusty winds and low wind chill readings.

The new GFS continues to drop a VERY potent upper level system into the region Friday into Friday night…

GFSThat type of system is very dynamic and creates a ton of rising air in the atmosphere. I’ve seen similar systems produce thunder and lightning as they pass through here. The air associated with this originated in the arctic and will likely bring colder temps than the computer models suggest. That would be saying something because the models are plenty cold enough.

The GFS shows the change from rain to snow working in from the west and northwest later Friday…

GFS 2Wraparound snows continue into Saturday morning with the potential for flurries or snow showers hanging around into Saturday afternoon.

The latest snowfall forecast from the GFS continues to show the potential for some sticking snows…

GFS 5The best chance to pick up on accumulation would be across the mountains of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. That said, I could see some spots in central Kentucky getting in on some slush Friday night. That’s when temps drop below freezing across the entire region. Lows will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

Winds will be very gusty and could top our between 30mph and 40mph at times. Those gusty winds combined with air temps below freezing could give us wind chill numbers like this by Saturday morning…

GFS 4Overall, this is a VERY impressive system and one that should bring the first flakes for many and the first accumulation for some.

I will have another update later this evening and will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4.

Take care.

12 Comments

Winter Weather On The Way

Good Wednesday, everyone. If you’re a regular reader of the blog, you’ve probably picked up on some of my posting tendencies. When I’m seeing something that’s really getting my attention, I fire off multiple updates a day. I’ve been doing just that over the past several days because of what looks to be a blast of winter coming for Halloween weekend.

As a matter of fact, this is a pretty extreme setup showing up on the models. It’s one that should put snow in the air and has the POTENTIAL to put snow on the ground for some.

Every single model out there is forecasting the first flakes of the season for Halloween into Saturday. Some show just a taste of winter while others show out and out winter. The GFS is one of the models going all in on winter weather. Take a look at the progression from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon…

GFS 5

That’s a much colder solution that makes a switch from rain to snow from west to east Friday afternoon and evening as cold air crashes in.

Here are some early thoughts on what the models suggest will happen:

- Friday starts with showers around with temps in the 40s to near 50 through midday. Cold air then crashes in as the arctic front swings through. There’s a chance many areas reach the 30s before dark.

- Rain and snow will be around for Halloween with the possibility of this becoming all snow. If the models are correct, some bands of heavier snow would be possible through Saturday morning. The best chance would be in central and eastern Kentucky. The NAM also shows that potential very well…

NAM

- Winds will really crank later Friday through Saturday. Gusts of 30mph+ will be possible. Combine those winds with the cold air and you could get late Friday evening wind chills like this from the GFS…

GFS 3

- High temps for Saturday may not get out of the 30s across parts of central and eastern Kentucky as gusty winds continue to make it feel much colder.

- What are the models saying about the POTENTIAL for some of the snows to stick? Both the NAM and GFS do suggest the possibility of that happening…

NAM

NAM 2

GFS

GFS 2

Let me be perfectly clear on something… those are snapshots of the model forecasts and NOT what I am forecasting. The models will vary from run to run and we still have a couple of days to see exactly how this thing plays out.. If I feel like accumulations are a real possibility, I will issue a First Call For Snowfall at some point. I am not to that point… yet.

That said, I do think the first flakes of the season will fly for much of this region.

Updates will come your way throughout the day. Make it a good one and take care.

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Tuesday Evening Update

Good Tuesday evening. The new European Model is in and it continues the trend of bringing a taste of winter weather in here for Halloween. The model continues to drop the strong upper level disturbance right on top of the bluegrass state…

Euro 2That produces rain to wet snow into much of our region as cold air surges in on a strong northwesterly wind…

EuroThis run continues to show the greatest threat for appreciable flakes across the mountains of southeastern Kentucky…Euro 3The brand new run of the GFS is a little more amped up with the snow chances into central Kentucky…

GFS We’re just getting into the time period to start looking at the NAM and it is showing something very similar to the GFS and European…

NAM

Another update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

3 Comments

A Wintry Halloween Possible

Good Tuesday afternoon, gang. It continues to look more and more like a blast of winter weather comes screaming into town just in time for Halloween. The models are doing what we said would happen several days ago… trend back to what they were showing from a week away.

The GFS now matches the European Model in showing the potent upper level system diving right on top of us Friday and Saturday…

GFSIf the models are accurate with the intensity and track of that system… it could be pretty wild around here. That would create a tremendous amount of wind and crashing temperatures to go along with rain and some snow. I’ve even seen similar situations produce thunder and lightning.

The GFS shows no shortage of precipitation across the region…

GFS 2IF things work out like that run suggests… rain would mix with and change to snow in many areas Friday evening into Saturday morning. The models continue to target the mountains of southeastern Kentucky with the best chance at seeing flakes and some accumulations…

GFS 3None of this is set in stone by any means, but my confidence in a taste of winter is increasing. Odds favor the first flakes of the season, at least, falling in our region Friday night and Saturday morning. Can it turn into something a little more? That’s possible and something for us to continue to track in the coming days.

I will get another update out later today and be back on WKYT-TV starting at 4.

Take care.

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