Time posted: 2:06 am

Tracking Possible Flooding and Severe Storms

Good Friday, everyone. It’s a very busy weather day across our region, with the potential for flooding rains and severe thunderstorms. This action is along and ahead of Tropical Depression Cindy, rolling across Kentucky later today into tonight.

If Cindy is still a depression as it moves into Kentucky, this will mark the second time that’s happened in the past three Junes. Bill moved right over us back in 2015. Having that happen once in June is rare, but in 2 of 3 years is pretty much way out there.

Here’s the latest track from the NHC…

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Much of the morning hours may be dry with some sun, then things go downhill quickly this afternoon.

Flooding is a big threat along and north of the track, where several inches of rain will fall through tonight. In addition to the flood threat, severe thunderstorms will develop across the central and east this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible.

All of this mess moves away by Saturday morning, with a VERY cool air mass settling in here this weekend into the middle of next week. Can we get some record lows early next week? That’s possible as temps drop into the 40s…

I will be tracking severe storms and flooding on WKYT-TV as needed during today’s event. I have you all set to track the storms on your own…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 12:07 pm

Flood and Severe Threat Update

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. The first round of heavy rain has already arrived across Kentucky, with a lot more on the way through Saturday morning. This will lead to the potential for flooding across much of the region. In addition to this, there could be a few spinning severe storms going up Friday afternoon and evening.

Let me start by saying there are NO flood watches anywhere across the state of Kentucky as of this writing. I find that absolutely astounding considering that some areas of that state can get more than 4″ of rain in just over the next 24 hours. The local NWS offices should take collective step back and reevaluate how these decisions are made.

In the near-term has plenty of moderate to heavy rain moving across the region. By midday, a half inch of rain had already fallen across parts of southern Kentucky. The short range HRRR model shows some pretty hefty totals through this evening…

A corridor of torrential rain will then focus on areas of western, central and northern Kentucky overnight into early Friday. I’m not sure exactly where that sets up, but flooding will be very possible underneath it.

Things will really get wild during the afternoon and evening Friday, as the remnants of Cindy arrive in Kentucky. This will pack flooding rains and some severe storms as it works through. The models are now honing in on a corridor of heavy rains along and north of the track, right across the heart of Kentucky. That corridor can drop 2″-4″ of rain by itself.

Winds will be rather gusty tomorrow with this tropical entity moving through here. Now, we are also going to have to watch for severe storms developing ahead of what’s left of Cindy. There is some indication that parts of central and eastern Kentucky can get in on a touch of sun ahead of this on Friday. If so, that would aid in the development of severe storms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the area in the slight risk…

Once we get rid of all this… it is going to get VERY COOL. Upper 40s for lows early next week?

I leave you with your radars…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:23 am

Tracking The Flood Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. Tropical moisture is streaming into the bluegrass state today, setting the stage for rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. These rounds will put down hefty rain totals and that’s likely to cause some flooding issues through early Saturday.

Here’s a breakdown of how all this may play out:

  • The first round of heavy rain and storms will move in from south to north today. This round may drop 1″-2″ of rain in some areas of central and western Kentucky. Eastern Kentucky may not see much rain today.
  • The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will zip in here Friday into Friday night. This may still be classified as a weak depression across southern Kentucky. This is neat to watch…

  • As this moves in, VERY HEAVY rains will be located along and to the north of the track. Friday through Friday night can drop 1″-4″ of additional rains.
  • Between now and Saturday morning, some 5″+ rain amounts will be possible. Here’s my current thinking…

  • The flood threat will be very high during this time, so please keep a close eye on water levels.

The rain will end quickly from east to west by Saturday morning. Much cooler air then moves in for the weekend into the first half of next week. A few showers will be possible at some point Monday or Tuesday. Highs will likely stay in the 70s for several days in a row.

I have you all set to track Cindy and the current rains across our region…

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I will have the latest updates on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 am

Late Week Flood Threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. We continue to track the potential for a very heavy rain event to cause issues across our part of the world. Tropical moisture from Cindy will arrive later Thursday and carry us into the start of the upcoming weekend.

There could be an isolated storm out there today, but the real tropical moisture arrives later Thursday. There could be a healthy slug of heavy rain moving from south to north into our region during the afternoon and evening. That in itself could bring a flood threat.

Before we get into the Friday-Saturday flood threat, let’s get the latest on Tropical Storm Cindy down in the Gulf of Mexico…

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What’s left of Cindy will move across Kentucky Friday into early Saturday, brining rounds of torrential rains. The best chance for flooding rains may be along and south of Interstate 64. Here’s my current threat map…

I will update that again later today on WKYT-TV.

Behind this system, it’s game on for some very cool temps for the end of June. Watch all the below normal temps settle in across much of the country…

I leave you with your interactive radar to track the weather here in Kentucky and down along the Gulf…

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:55 am

Significant Rain Event Possible Late Week

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have better weather blowing in today, but all weather eyes are on the end of the week and weekend. That’s when we could be facing a significant heavy rain event unfolding across our part of the world.

This potential comes from a tropical system from the Gulf getting hooked up with a slow moving front across the Ohio Valley.

Before all that gets in here, we have a nice day today. Enjoy it because temps will take off again for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a chance for a few storms to go up during this time.

It’s late Thursday into Friday that we have to be on guard for the gulf system potentially impacting our region.

What’s the latest on this system? Here ya go…

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The computer models are all in agreement on bringing the remnants into our region, interacting with a cold front dropping in from the northwest. That’s a combination, if it happens, that should be sounding alarm bells to forecasters from the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian…

The Canadian rainfall totals are absolutely off the charts…

Unfortunately, the European Model isn’t too dissimilar…

The 18z GFS also had similar numbers…

The 0z run backed off somewhat, but still had some big numbers…

Nothing good comes of cold fronts meeting up with the leftovers of a tropical system. Nothing! We really need to monitor this very closely in the coming days. Hopefully we can get the front and the tropical system to miss the connection.

The troughs digging in behind this system are pretty incredible for this time of year. The 540 thickness line into Wisconsin at the end of June???

I’ve been studying weather since I was old enough to read and I cannot remember seeing a forecast map with the 540 thickness line that far south in the summertime.

This may give us an extended run of highs in the 70s. Wow.

Make it a great day and take care.

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