Heavy Rain and Storms Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our active weather pattern continues with a likely heavy rain event getting ready to roll across the commonwealth. A potent area of low pressure will push through here late Wednesday into Thursday with heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms.

A scattered shower or storm is possible out there today as a cold front slows down and becomes stationary across our region. That allows for a strong area of low pressure to head our way. This is the map I made on Saturday to illustrate what I thought would happen…

Special 2

I have no need to make any changes to that. To further illustrate just how potent of a system this is, check out the spin upstairs…

Canadian

That type of setup could lead to some strong storms with high winds and very heavy rains that can cause flash flooding. 2″+ rainfall is possible across the entire region.

Temps behind that system will drop through the 70s on Thursday and only hit the high 70s and low 80s for Friday. The Canadian Model still looks to have the best handle on this overall pattern and it brings another cold front through here early next week. That knocks temps back down…

Canadian 2

I’ve got some new fall and winter models to show you later this week. Spread the word! 😉

I leave you with some tracking toys…

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Stormy Week Begins

Good Monday, everyone. The first full week of August is underway and our weather pattern really doesn’t look the part. If anything, it looks a lot more like something out of late fall or winter with big dips in the jet stream showing up across our region. That leads to rounds of showers and storms with shots of cool air.

We have a cold front on top of the area today and this will lead to a line of showers and storms zipping through here. A few of the storms could be on the strong side and I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The pattern really gets busy with a couple of systems working right across our region by the middle and end of the week…

Canadian

That could lead to some very heavy rains setting up somewhere across the Ohio Valley. The Canadian Model seems to be the most consistent with this setup…

Canadian 2

Let’s hope we don’t get that much rain, but the setup is favorable for some decent totals in the coming days.

That low system then turns the corner and up the east coast with much cooler air diving in here from the northwest. Upper 70s and low 80s for highs from Friday through the weekend? That’s a possibility. How about lows deep in the 50s?

GFS Temps

The Ensembles are then showing another deep trough swinging in around the middle of the month…

GFS Temps 2

Here are the tracking tools of the day…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Stormy Pattern Set To Return

Good Sunday to one and all. A familiar pattern is trying to fight back into the bluegrass state in the coming days. A series of systems diving in here from the west and northwest will likely lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the week ahead. That setup may carry us into the middle of the month as cooler shots of air dive in.

Today will feature a small threat for a shower or storm will normal early August temps.

This changes up a bit on Monday as a cold front sweeps in here. That should cause a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening…

NAM

A few strong storms will be possible along this boundary. Cooler air comes in behind the front as winds become northwesterly…

GFSThat sets the stage for a very active pattern taking shape with a dip in the jet stream settling in across the region. Waves of low pressure then dive in here and that can lead to heavy rains…

Special 2

We could see that pattern last for a couple of weeks. Given how wet things have been this summer, we will need to keep a close eye on that.

Temps behind each of those systems will knock our temps down to below normal levels. After this look from July…

July 2015

August could skew the overall summer numbers a little cooler than normal.

Have a great day and take care.

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A Busy First Week Of August

Good Saturday everyone and welcome to August. The month is off and running on a very nice weather note across the bluegrass state. It’s looking more and more like the nice part of the weather program may not be sticking around very long. The stormy setup we’ve had much of the summer is trying to force its way back into the bluegrass state.

Today will feature temps down a few degrees from what we had on Friday. The low humidity levels remain, but there is also a small threat for a popup storm or two.

Readings bounce back to typical early August numbers later Sunday into early next week. This is ahead of a couple of cold fronts on the way next week. These will bring scattered storms early in the week, but the greatest concentration comes during the second half of the week…

GFS

That’s a very unsummer looking system working across the Ohio Valley. Showers and storms are forecast by the GFS and European Models to become fairly widespread during that time. That’s being pushed by a significant dip in the jet stream that allows much cooler air to dive in here…

GFS 2

With a northwesterly wind flow, another system or two will try to dive in here a few days later…

GFS 3

That setup is obviously can skew numbers cooler than normal for a while, but can also cause some additional rounds of heavy rains. The GFS rain forecast shows some high totals…

GFS 4

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking Changes For Early August

Good Friday, everyone. The last day of July is off and running and it’s looking to be a far cry from how we’ve spent most of the month. This has been a top 5 wettest July on record for many cities, but the month is wrapping up on a picture perfect note. If you think this is nice, there’s a chance we do it a little better in about a week.

Let’s start with where we are and roll ahead. The day may start with several areas sneaking into the upper 50s! Highs will be back in the low and middle 80s for much of the state with low humidity levels. Skies stay sunny.

Saturday’s temps will be just a bit warmer than today in the west and about the same central and east. There is the smallest chance for isolated showers and storms.

A better chance for isolated showers and storms will move in for Sunday and Monday as temperatures rebound. Humidity levels will also inch up, but nothing like what we just had a few days ago.

Cold fronts then get set to dive in here from the northwest. This will cause an increase in showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday. The bigger news may be the cooler air pushing the storms through here. The temperature departures from normal on the GFS…

GFS TEMPS 1

The timing and depth of the cool is in question. I think there is a good chance all that gets pushed back a few days because of a stalled out boundary.

If you know anything about the GFS, you will know just how bad this upgraded model has been with temps this summer. It’s a constant heat wave outside of 48 hours and has routinely been showing 100 degree temps around here. To say it’s failed would be an understatement, so to actually see the model sensing the cooler air is impressive in itself.

From the “for fun and games” category, the GFS low temps for next Saturday morning…

GFS TEMPS 2Check out the high mountains just to our east. That is highly unlikely, but it’s an indication of the season just around the corner.

Make it a great day and take care.

4 Comments

A Better Brand Of Air Blowing In

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some much better air pushing back into the bluegrass state as we get ready to close out July. This is all part of a pattern that should skew cooler than normal into the first half of August. The big question is… Will that pattern turn back into a stormy one?

Our day will start on the muggy side with the front slowly dropping south across the state. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early on. Humidity levels will decrease from north to south as the day wears on with highs mainly in the low and middle 80s for many. Higher numbers may be noted in the south and far west just ahead of the front.

Friday looks absolutely great with highs in the low and middle 80s with mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels. Not a bad way to say goodbye to such an ugly month.

Our northwesterly wind flow over the weekend will mean a couple of weak disturbances may dive in with isolated showers and storms. The best chance looks to be on Sunday. You can see how this flow gets established into early next week…

Euro

Climatology tells us this is the hottest part of the year, so that’s a pretty good look to see around these parts. Lots of daily highs for next week will be in the low and middle 80s.

Can the pattern turn back into a stormy one? Unfortunately, yes. Notice the little dips in the jet stream showing up toward the end of next week…

Euro 2That could put our region in the line of fire for clusters of storms working in from the west. Again, that’s a good look for temperatures!

Let’s track today’s better conditions moving in…

Make it a great day and take care.

3 Comments

Tracking A Strong Cold Front

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a cold front moving into the region today and this front will produce some additional rounds of thunderstorms. This front will also usher in a much better brand of air as we close out July and say a hearty hello to August.

Steam and storms will be the main players out there today. Temps will be around 90 degrees, but humidity levels will make it feel quite a bit hotter than that. The storms that crank could be strong and put down a ton of rain. Local flash flooding is a definite possibility, again. Your tracking tools in a bit.

That front pushes to our south and east late Thursday. The early part of the day can still crank a shower or storm with the cooler and drier air sinking in as the day wears on. There should still be a nice temp/humidity gradient from north to south early on.

Friday looks pretty darn good with low and middle 80s for many with much lower humidity levels.

The first weekend of August will feature a mix of sun and clouds with pretty nice temperatures. I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm going up in this northwesterly flow. The readings will inch up a bit as we await the arrival of the next cold front early next week. That means an increase in showers and thunderstorms as the front slowly pushes in.

The air coming in behind that for the middle and end of next week…

GFS TEMPS 1Let’s track today’s increase in storms…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Storms Lead To Better Weather

Good Tuesday, folks. More in the way of scattered showers and storms are on the way for the next couple of days. This action is ahead of the first in a series of cold fronts that will bring much better weather into our part of the world. The air behind these fronts will grow cooler with each shot all the way through the middle of August.

Highs today will make a run toward 90 for areas who miss out on any scattered shower or storm action. The storms that are out there could put down some very heavy rains that could cause some local high water issues. Some strong boomers will also be possible.

A cold front dives in from the northwest late Wednesday with showers and storms becoming a bit more widespread. Watch how the storms progress through here from Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday…

NAM

That’s some MUCH better air coming in behind that front on Thursday. Check out the highs on Thursday…

NAM 2

Similar temps will be noted on Friday with fairly low humidity levels.

Additional cooler than normal shots are lining up for the first half of August. Temps will spike just a bit, as usual, ahead of each front that moves through, but the overall theme is cooler. Look at the dips showing up on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 2

Even the GFS is FINALLY starting to see this. Check out the departures by early next week…

GFS

I guess this means the GFS weather reporters will be changing forecasts for next week? 😉

Here are today’s regularly scheduled tracking toys…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

5 Comments

Scattered storms start the week

Good Monday, everyone. The month of July is quickly running out of days and we will soon turn our attention to the start of another school year and football. As it sounds now, August continues to show up on a pretty cool note across much of the country.

Between now and then, we have some steam and scattered storms to contend with.

Those scattered storms will be noted out there today and some of them could be a little strong and put down locally heavy amounts of rain. Temps today should be held down some compared to our Sunday, but the increase in humidity will make it feel steamy.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a scattered storm or two with additional steamy temps. Highs should hit the 90-95 range in the west with near 90 degree highs for the rest of the area. Again, humidity levels will toast that up some.

A cold front arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday with a better shot at some showers and storms. That front is being pushed by a decent dip in the jet stream. That dip then gets more pronounced this weekend into early next week…

Euro 2

That knocks temps down on a strong northwesterly wind flow. You can see how the air coming in early next week is much cooler than normal…

Euro 3

That’s the beginning of what should be a very cool first half of August for much of the country. Watch the progression in 5 day increments…

CFS  CFS 2

CFS 3If you’re a fan of typical summer temps… Enjoy the next couple of days. 😉

I leave you with your tracking toys of the day…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

3 Comments

Big Changes Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. The final weekend of July is wrapping up with some typical summer temperatures across our part of the world. All of that is about to change as our weather pattern takes on more of a late September look and feel as we end the month and work into early August.

Highs today will be back into the mid and upper 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky with a 90 in the west. A storm or two will develop as our flow aloft continues to come from the northwest. Throw in a weak disturbance moving in for Monday, and you get a better chance for some storm clusters…

NAM

Temps on Monday will likely be, at least, a little cooler than today.

Isolated storms will again be possible on Tuesday as temps try to get to 90 degrees in some areas. The same can be said for Wednesday, but showers and storms will increase by the afternoon and evening. That’s in response to a strong cold front dropping in from the northwest. That ushers in a much better brand of air for the end of the week into the weekend…

Euro

Notice the areas of low pressure trying to develop from the Gulf up the east coast. The models are trying to figure out if those are just regular lows or something tropical.

All of this is being fueled by a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country…

Euro 2

I’m looking at that and wondering if we can get something to cut off across our region. That’s something to watch as we go forward.

I’ve been talking about how strong El Ninos (and we certainly have one) can produce some pretty hefty late summer and fall cool shots. The models continue to point toward the first half of August as featuring below normal readings. Here’s the CFS for the first few days of the month…

CFS

The following 10 days…

CFS 2

That’s cool… literally and figuratively.

Does that mean summer is over? No, but we really haven’t had much of one for the third straight year. In honing in on some of the fall analog years, don’t be surprised if we don’t pop a little hot stretch post Labor Day. 😉

For the past few months, I’ve told you how fascinated by the current strong El Nino that’s developing. The whole setup has no true analog and that will make for some fun forecasting times as we head closer to winter.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments