Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to show you how the Winter Storm Warnings have now expanded to include much of the state though Wednesday. The southern counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory during the dame time. Here is the updated map...



Snow will be breaking out from southwest to northeast later this evening into the overnight and will become mixed with some ice across the south. You can track this mess in here with regional radar...



Here are the headlines of this thing...

- Snow develops overnight with some ice possible by morning across the south. This will be a high impact event for the morning commute.

- My snow map from my last update for late tonight and early Tuesday remains unchanged.

- Temps will try to go above freezing for a few hours in most of the area... this would mean a switch to some freezing rain or light rain will take place... especially across the south and east. The deepest moisture may already be over by this time.

- Arctic front to slam in here Tuesday evening. Temps will drop by more than 10-15 degrees in just a few hours as any rains go back to snow.

- Snows will move back in Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night. High snow ratios will be with us meaning we maximize the amount of precip that falls. Several inches of snow will fall during this time.

- Winds will crank up to 30-35mph into Wednesday creating blowing and drifting snows. Wind chills will be near 0.

Overall... this is a high impact winter storm that will hit the region over the next few days. I will have more updates as needed later this evening so check back. Take care.

    

Good afternoon everyone. We are now in full blow Winter Storm Alert mode for a system that will come at us in two pieces over the next few days. The first one comes at us overnight into the first part of Tuesday with snow and a mix of snow and freezing rain developing from south to north. This will make for a VERY messy Tuesday morning commute across the entire region.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for much of the state...



Northeastern Kentucky will be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.

We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a few hours. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day.

Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...



My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go.

The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph.  Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours.

Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.

I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

    

Good Monday everyone. We have a whole lot of wintry weather to talk about as we have a very busy weather week that is just beginning. Our first item up for bids is a system that will roll in here later tonight into Tuesday and this is likely to be a high impact system that brings snow and some ice to the region. Then we watch more widespread snows and arctic air surge in here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for of Kentucky. This begs the question... should the blog be in Winter Storm Threat mode? I am toying with it as I write this. Regardless of modes... the morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...



I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north by early afternoon Tuesday.

The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...

NAM Tuesday Morning



Tuesday Afternoon



Tuesday Evening


The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...



That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.

I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...



I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3". Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

A few words about other weather items on my mind...

- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!

- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!

- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.

- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.

- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.

Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...

I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday... you really need to stay on top of this as this will be a high impact event. You can also look for some quick updates through Twitter so sign up to follow me @KentuckyWeather. My twitter feed is also in the top right hand corner of this blog.

Take care.

    

Good Super Sunday Evening everyone. If you are a fan of winter weather... the week ahead is sure to be super in a lot of ways as we have snow and cold that will be the main players.

Parts of the state are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday. This is for parts of northern Kentucky and southwest along to Ohio River toward Paducah. Here is a look...



The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...

Tuesday Morning


Tuesday Afternoon


That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...



We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...



There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.

A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...



I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.

Take care.

    

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for blogging. Let me start out by saying that I have a backlog of emails to answer and I am hoping to put a dent in that this weekend. If you emailed me at any point over the past few months and didn't hear back... hang tough as I am getting there. Several hundred emails await.

In terms of the weather... our very active winter pattern continues across much of the country and the upcoming week looks pretty darn wintry around here. That won't be the case today so much as some sunshine returns. Temps this morning will crash into the teens with a shot at some single digits for areas in the north and northeast that have snow on the ground. You can see the low temps for the day here...


Highs today will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday afternoon ahead of our next winter weather maker. I am watching this setup closely for a possible Threat upgrade across parts of the state for late Monday night into Tuesday. The setup is for a VIGOROUS upper level system to dive into the plains states later Monday and Tuesday. This will spawn a weak low pressure across the eastern Ohio Valley with another low moving up the east coast. The big difference between this and the setup we are just coming out of is that temps will be much colder to start and a major blast of cold air scoots in. You can see how this all works out on the GFS Ensembles...




The GFS snowfall is not as tightly wound or as wet as the Ensembles. Here is the latest snowfall map from Tuesday through Wednesday...



The situation for Monday night and Tuesday certainly needs to be watched closely for a period of snow and ice to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could cause a mess for the early Tuesday commute in all areas. Temps will try to go above freezing across the south and southeast for a few hours Tuesday afternoon... but this may happen as a lot of the leading precip shield has already done the damage with snow and ice. That above freezing surge will be VERY short lived as our arctic front slams in by late afternoon and early Evening.

The upper level low will cruse through here through Wednesday with widespread snows that will try to hang on into Thursday morning. Winds will be very gusty and snow ratios should be rather high with the cold temps.This would lead to the potential for some decent snows for the entire region. We are going to make a lot of school kids happy in the week ahead!

By the way. We have all seen the video and pics from the mid atlantic states historic blizzard that just wrapped up. Guess what? Another snowstorm or blizzard will be possible from DC to Boston by the middle of the week! This situation for some areas may get totally out of control with the amount of snow on the ground. This has truly been an historic winter for much of the country and we still have A LOT more winter to go through. The pattern over for the rest of the month looks VERY cold with many more chances for snow.

I will have an update on the early week winter woes with an update later today so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

    

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by really quickly for an update before I watch the Cats and crash after a long past couple of days. The time to rest will be short as our next winter weather maker will be moving our way by Monday night to set us up for a very wintry period for the middle and end of next week.

I thought I would tease some of you who missed out on this round of snows. Take a look at a couple shots I grabbed on my iphone this morning from my part of the world...






Here is a cool video of the road conditions from nearby Huntington ,WV that was sent to me by one of my co workers...

As you can see... I didn't blow the forecast for everyone!

We now turn our attention to the next round of wintry weather moving in from Monday night through Friday of next week. The lead system may be enough to qualify as a "storm" around here with snow and a mix for Monday night and Tuesday with snows taking over after that as arctic air takes hold of the pattern. This will be one heck of an arctic front that will slam the region on Tuesday with gusty winds and falling temps. You can see this setup nicely on the GFS Ensembles...



Wicked is a term that comes to mind for the weather around here for the middle and end of next week. Whether or not we get a big snow out of the Tuesday storm... the daily threat of snows will be with us into the end of next week to go along with very cold temps. The pattern shows no signs of breaking down over the next 2 or three weeks at least.

I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Take care.

    

Good Saturday morning everyone. It was a short night for your friendly weatherdude since I worked the did the late shows Friday night and was back in a few hours later this morning on special assignment working the early Saturday morning update. Sleep is so overrated!

The stubborn warm layer of air really cut into the snow totals for a lot of areas. The northern and northeastern parts of the state were the areas where we focused on for the heaviest snows and that is working out pretty good with a good 2"-4" of snow already having fallen since last night. An additional 1"-3" will be possible this morning before the snow tapers off. This is such a wet snow that it is compacting so quickly that you may never have more than 3 or 4 inches on the ground at any one time.

South of the interstate... my forecast has not been very good as the rains held on MUCH longer than I thought. You will switch over to snow this morning... but I simply cannot see more than an inch or two at the MOST! Of course... we didn't forecast much at all in this area... but you get the idea.

The eastern half of the state will see moderate bands of snow moving through here this morning as our upper level low pinwheels through the area. You can track the snows here...



I have some weather cams for you guys to check out. You can see there are plenty of places that DID get in on some good snows...

Kentucky Horse Park Lexington


Ashland


Harrodsburg


I-75 Northern Kentucky




Help us out by posting the weather where you live. Take care everyone.

    

Good late Friday evening gang. Things appear to remain on track as we roll into tonight and through the day Saturday. We have our upper level low that will be rolling through during this time and will enhance the snowfall across the entire region with the heaviest falling in the north and northeast.

You can see this potent system showing up in the spin on radar...



I have to admit that the rains held on a tad longer than I thought but that happens sometimes in these setups as timing that junk is impossible. Still... I am not too concerned about the forecast we have out it should verify pretty easily in most areas as the upper low passes through here. It sill snow heavily in a lot of areas late tonight into early Saturday and it will be a wet snow meaning there will be a lot of slush! This is the type of snow that will compact VERY quickly as it accumulates because it is so wet. It is also good for making snowmen.

The NAM continues to show decent snows overnight into Saturday...



That looks a lot like the snowfall map we put out earlier so I am liking what it shows!

Help us out by posting the weather conditions from where you live. It is much appreciated. After this storm... we focus our attention on the next storm that moves our way by Tuesday. This will usher in a snowy and cold period for the middle and end of next week.

Thanks for all you guys do and take care.

    

Good Friday evening gang. My time is VERY brief right now but I wanted to give you a quick update on where things stand. The new warning Map looks about what we have talked about...



As of this writing the snow line is rapidly collapsing into northern Kentucky and will continue southward with most areas going to snow this evening. The latest run of the NAM model continues to pump up the snow totals tonight and Saturday...



Areas that get 6 or more inches of snow stand the risk of seeing power outages since this will be a very heavy, wet snow. Track the transition here...



On another note... the heavy rains over the next few hours can lead to some local flash flooding so please keep that in mind if you are in a flood prone area.

Please keep posting the weather where you live as we track the transition. I will update things as I can later this evening so check back. Take care.

    

Good afternoon everyone. Our winter storm is playing out about as expected as much of the area went from a mix to all rain today and that rain will continue this afternoon before snow takes over from north to south. The quicker the transition... the more snow that will fall and timing all this will be the main issue later today.

Winter Storm Warnings have been extended farther south into north central Kentucky while Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for a lot of other counties for tonight and Saturday. Here is your map...



It would appear the folks at the NWS in Jackson are busy celebrating National Weatherperson's Day as they are the only surrounding office with nothing showing up. Will their northern counties go from having nothing straight to a Winter Storm Warning? That is certainly possible.

Track the change to snow on our regional radar...



You can also follow the temp drop later this afternoon and evening...


As far as what the models are forecasting... the NAM continues to come in with a major snow event across northern and northeastern Kentucky where it is forecasting a foot of snow for some (including my house )...



The GFS is not as aggressive with the quicker change to snow and shows lower totals...



Given the split in the models... my snowfall map will remain unchanged from earlier today. But I will admit the consistency of the NAM has me concerned that I am too low in the north and northeast...



I will have more updates later in the day so check back. Until then... keep doing what you are doing and posting the weather where you live. Have a great afternoon and take care.