Time posted: 2:15 pm

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. We are wrapping up the weekend on a very nice note out there with sun shine and temps heading into the 50s. The temperature trend for the next few days could be record setting, with a surge of April temps. Then, the rains set in.

Warmer moves in from the south tonight and will be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms. Once the warm front lifts to our north, temps take off with upper 60s and low 70s for highs on Monday. Winds will also crank during this time.

Tuesday is when record and all time February record highs may be challenged. Highs can hit 80 degrees in much of the state, as southwesterly winds continue to blow. Wow.

Showers and storms then increase from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday…

Those could be some very slow-movers, delivering several inches of rain on their own. The flood risk will ramp up during this time.

Additional waves of showers and storms will continue to target the region from late week into next weekend…

All modes of flooding are possible from Wednesday through next weekend. River flooding may continue to be an issue, and could turn into a much bigger issue.

The rounds of showers and storms may persist into the following week, which would not be a good thing.

What we are dealing with is a false start to spring, and I worry about the March pattern throwing more winter weather our way. Severe blocking is being forecast to develop, leading to a cold pattern trying to envelope much of the nation. This is even showing up on the Ensembles for early March…

No thanks. #teamspring

Enjoy the rest of your Saturday and take care.

21 Comments

Time posted: 2:35 am

A Spring Pattern Brings A Flood Threat

Good Sunday, everyone. We have been in a very wet pattern for the past week and change and this soggy setup shows no signs of letting up. As a matter of fact, as thunderstorms join the mix, the flood threat actually increases for the week ahead and beyond.

Our Sunday looks mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds and temps on the increase. Highs will be near 50 in the far north, to around 60 in the far south and west.

Clouds increase quickly tonight, with some showers and thunderstorms rumbling through…

Temps rise all night long as a strong southwesterly wind kicks in. Highs on Monday make a run at 70 degrees and hit deep into the upper 70s and low 80s on Tuesday. Record highs and all time February record highs are a possibility. #teamspring

In recent weeks, I’ve been hitting the flood setup VERY hard, trying to get everyone aware of this super soaker of a setup. I put this map out more than a week ago…

My updated version of that keeps Kentucky in the bullseye, but expands that southwest into the lower Mississippi River Valley…

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will target Kentucky during this time, especially during the second half of next week. This can lead to all modes of flooding in our region. Our rivers are going to be especially vulnerable to flooding as we go through the next few weeks and into the spring.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

19 Comments

Time posted: 7:36 pm

Weekend Update

Good Saturday evening, gang. Our round of heavy snow and heavy rain is wrapping up from west to east, but the active setup remains. Spring temps are ready to surge in, bringing the potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms that can cause additional flooding woes.

Let me start with a direct and to the point rant. The National Weather Service offices around here need to really work on this whole Winter Weather Advisory thing. It’s been really bad this winter and today was just flat out terrible. Forecasters have got to be able to adjust accordingly as an event is unfolding.

I know that statement means the same band of tired trolls will gather on twitter and throw darts at me, but I simply don’t care. 🙂

The other aspect of today’s system is the flooding. Areas of southeastern Kentucky have picked up 1″-2″ of rain today, with high water a possibility through the evening…

Things improve quickly for Sunday, but that’s not going to last very long. Showers and storms move back in Sunday night into early Monday, as southwesterly winds howl. This will bring 70 degree temps to town on Monday, with a chance to flirt with 80 on Tuesday..

Rounds of rain and thunderstorms will target the state next week into the following weekend. Some strong to severe storms are possible, but the heavy rain and flood threat continues to take center stage.

This is a very bad look from the European Model…

That’s a ton of water targeting our region over the next week and change. All modes of flooding are possible during this time. This is one of the highest river flood threats we have had in a long while.

I will have a full update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 1:00 pm

Heavy Snow and Heavy Rain This Afternoon

Good afternoon everyone. As usual, the winter weather fence is setting up across Kentucky, with snow in the north and heavy rain in the south. Sandwiched in between is a combo of the two, with some sleet thrown in for good measure.

Areas north of Interstate 64 will continue to see mainly snow throughout the afternoon and have the greatest risk of picking up on several inches of slushy accumulations. Here’s a rough look at what may wind up happening…

Those lines are NOT set in stone, especially when dealing with such a fine line in rain verses snow.Temps in the north are near freezing and the snow rates are overcoming the warm and wet ground. It may also snow fast enough to cover roads.

Farther south and southeast, it’s all about the heavy rain and flooding potential. A good 1″-2″ of rain may fall, leading to high water issues developing.

The blog is all set to do some tracking…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Winchester

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I will have updates as needed, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

23 Comments

Time posted: 1:49 am

Tracking Another Active Weather Day

Good Saturday, everybody. Another storm system is working across the state. bringing the potential for additional high water issues and some winter weather. This continues to be part of a very active setup that will throw a lot more rain our way over the next few weeks.

A Flood Watch is out across southeastern Kentucky, where a general inch or two of rain may fall. This can cause additional high water issues to develop through the evening hours. Here are your trackers…

The northern edge of the rain shield has a chance to be in frozen form, with some slushy wet snows showing up. The best chance will be for areas north of Interstate 64…

Temps are marginal for snow to fall, let alone stick, but we will have to watch the snow rates… If it does snow.

This system zips through here quickly, leaving us alone by the middle of the evening. That sets the stage for much better weather moving in on Sunday. A mix of sun and clouds will boost temps deep into the 50s.

As even warmer air surges in Sunday night and early Monday, a few showers and thunderstorms will work across Kentucky…

That introduces a VERY warm setup for the first half of next week. Daytime highs can easily reach the 70s on more than one occasion. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an 80 degree day.  It will also bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms our way from southwest to northeast across the region.

High water issues are very possible into next week, with the initial threat area being across the western half of the state, the focusing farther east later in the week.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Saturday and take care.

18 Comments