Time posted: 7:46 pm

Heavy Rain Update

Good evening, everyone. Heavy rain continues to push into the region, leading to the potential for some local flooding issues tonight. From there, it’s another big surge of rain we track later this weekend with winter coming back later next week.

Tonight’s rain will be heaviest from the Interstate 65 corridor to the Interstate 75 corridor. It’s this area we will get a general 1″-2″ with locally higher amounts. That’s the area to watch for stream and street flooding…

The 60s will back in here Saturday. Winds will increase with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during this time.

What happens with the exact track of the Sunday-Monday big storm system? The NAM continues to bring this right across the state…

nam GIF

If that’s the track, flooding would become an issue. If that stays into Tennessee, the heaviest rain would be just to our south. Let’s hope that’s the case.

Winter surges in here by the middle of next week with a series of systems diving in from the northwest. The European Model is similar to the earlier GFS runs I posted. It shows some light snow makers starting Thursday…

Euro

Euro 2

Euro 3

That northwesterly flow can become a nice snow producer if it sets up as all the models currently suggest.

The GFS then follows all that up with even colder air and bigger systems diving in next weekend into early the following week…

GFS 2

I’ll see you later tonight for a full update. Enjoy the rainy evening and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 12:20 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the heavy rains moving in and the heavy rains on the way later this weekend. Oh, and the winter weather likely to follow later next week.

Rain continues to develop from southwest to northeast and will become heavy at times. The models continue to point toward a general 1″-2″ of rain across the central part of the state…

NAM

A few spots can exceed the 2″ mark. With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, local flooding issues may develop. That’s something to keep a very close eye on. Watches are overrated.

Here’s regional radar to track the increase in the action…

The weekend system will throw some scattered stuff in here on Saturday as temps spike into the 60s.

The exact track of the big storm is still in question for Sunday and Monday, but the NAM shows this system rolling right across Kentucky…

NAM 3

That’s a very impressive system with heavy rain, high winds and some thunder. Here’s what that run of the NAM is spitting out for rainfall just for rainfall on Sunday through 7pm…

NAM 2

Obviously, if the NAM is correct, we are going to have some flooding issues Sunday and Monday. The GFS continues to be just a bit farther south with the heaviest rains in Tennessee. Given this looks like a winter system, I wonder if the GFS is treating it like one and showing it farther south than it actually will be?

After all this, here comes winter for the second part of next week. The first system arrives from the northwest with some light snow possible…

GFS 2

Additional systems then dive in here on the GFS…

GFS 3

Here’s a true clipper showing up…

GFS 4

And then a super clipper after that…

GFS 5

Back loaded winter ahead.

I will update things later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

19 Comments

Time posted: 1:58 am

Heavy Rain Is Back In The Bluegrass

Good Thursday, everybody. Rounds of heavy rain continue to take aim at the bluegrass state today, and this may cause some local high water issues. We will track that, a big storm system lurking for the weekend, and winter weather on the way later next week.

Today’s rain will increase from southwest to northeast through this evening. The central and western parts of the state will see the most rain through Friday morning with a general 1″-2″. We have a saturated ground and our waterways are running high, so some local high water issues may develop.

The main shield of rain moves away pretty quickly on Friday, but leftover showers may remain. Temps will then take off with a mix of sun and clouds. Readings by Friday afternoon can reach deeeeep into the 60s and do so again on Saturday. Winds will crank from the southwest during this time.

That’s when all the focus turns to a big storm system rumbling into our region. This has been a well advertised cutoff low and has been yapped about on here for more than a week. Scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible ahead of this system on Saturday.

As the storm comes together and passes west to east just to our south, it can bring very gusty winds to go along with rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through early Monday.

Exactly where that low tracks will be the determining factor on whether or not it gives us enough rain to cause problems. The NAM goes out to Sunday morning and has the low in a position to raise high water concerns…

NAM

The GFS is just a smidge farther south…

GFS 4

The Canadian Model is similar to the NAM, but more disjointed with the low pressure…

Canadian

Winter returns later next week as a much colder pattern settles in. This has been well advertised for a long time and the numbers will keep growing colder for the final week of the month. You can see the 5 day average deviations showing the heart of the cold on top of us…

GFS Temps

Snow chances will accompany these cold shots as we head into another back loaded winter.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

22 Comments

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We have another big rain event rolling toward the state Thursday into Thursday night. This is the first of two big systems I’m tracking over the next several days that can put down a lot of water in our region. After we get through all of this, here comes the back loaded winter.

I have zero changes on the heavy rain and high water potential for Thursday into Friday morning. Much of central and western Kentucky will get another 1″-2″ of rain that can cause some flooding problems.

Very mild air then surges in here later Friday into Saturday as highs soar into the 60s. This will be ahead of a massive storm system working from west to east across the region later this weekend.

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm will try to develop ahead of this on Saturday…

GFS 2

The new GFS takes this storm directly east across the Tennessee Valley, putting rotating heavy rain bands across Kentucky…

GFS

If that is the track of the low, look out, flooding would be a very high threat around here.

The European is just a smidge farther south and you can see how the colder air comes in behind this into early next week…

Euro

As winter takes control by the second half of next week, there will be several systems diving into the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. The European Model now blows up one of those systems into a winter storm…

Euro 3

The GFS isn’t ready to commit to that, right now, but it does show snow makers diving in from the northwest…

GFS 3

And this begins another back loaded winter weather pattern for our part of the world. Grr.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 12:30 pm

Tracking Heavy Rain For Thursday

Good Wednesday afternoon, folks. It’s another gloomy day in the bluegrass state, but at least it isn’t raining. Enjoy it because that will change quickly on Thursday. Another push of very heavy rain is likely across the region and this can lead to some flooding problems.

The heaviest rains will fall across the central and western parts of the state. The NAM is now showing a swath of 1″-3″ of rain…

NAM

The GFS isn’t quite as heavy, but you can definitely see a similar setup…

GFS Rain

With a waterlogged ground and many creeks and rivers running on the high side, it won’t take much to cause some flooding problems. I would expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued for the central and west.

That system moves out of here by midday Friday with a spring surge coming in behind it. The 60s are back in town into Saturday as we await a bigger system to impact the region this weekend and early next week.

The GFS shows this powerhouse…

GFS

That’s a colder look for later Sunday into early next week.

The Canadian Model is even colder and has a transition to some snow by later Monday into Tuesday morning…

Canadian

Where is a cold high to the north when you need one? The track on that system would be perfect for a shutdown storm if we had that high.

As is, we have to watch for a lot of rain, some thunderstorms and high winds.

Winter returns after we get that system out of the way. The end of next week into the following weekend continues to show up very well on the models…

GFS 2

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

28 Comments