Time posted: 7:27 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We have another big rain event rolling toward the state Thursday into Thursday night. This is the first of two big systems I’m tracking over the next several days that can put down a lot of water in our region. After we get through all of this, here comes the back loaded winter.

I have zero changes on the heavy rain and high water potential for Thursday into Friday morning. Much of central and western Kentucky will get another 1″-2″ of rain that can cause some flooding problems.

Very mild air then surges in here later Friday into Saturday as highs soar into the 60s. This will be ahead of a massive storm system working from west to east across the region later this weekend.

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm will try to develop ahead of this on Saturday…

GFS 2

The new GFS takes this storm directly east across the Tennessee Valley, putting rotating heavy rain bands across Kentucky…

GFS

If that is the track of the low, look out, flooding would be a very high threat around here.

The European is just a smidge farther south and you can see how the colder air comes in behind this into early next week…

Euro

As winter takes control by the second half of next week, there will be several systems diving into the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. The European Model now blows up one of those systems into a winter storm…

Euro 3

The GFS isn’t ready to commit to that, right now, but it does show snow makers diving in from the northwest…

GFS 3

And this begins another back loaded winter weather pattern for our part of the world. Grr.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Tracking Heavy Rain For Thursday

Good Wednesday afternoon, folks. It’s another gloomy day in the bluegrass state, but at least it isn’t raining. Enjoy it because that will change quickly on Thursday. Another push of very heavy rain is likely across the region and this can lead to some flooding problems.

The heaviest rains will fall across the central and western parts of the state. The NAM is now showing a swath of 1″-3″ of rain…

NAM

The GFS isn’t quite as heavy, but you can definitely see a similar setup…

GFS Rain

With a waterlogged ground and many creeks and rivers running on the high side, it won’t take much to cause some flooding problems. I would expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued for the central and west.

That system moves out of here by midday Friday with a spring surge coming in behind it. The 60s are back in town into Saturday as we await a bigger system to impact the region this weekend and early next week.

The GFS shows this powerhouse…

GFS

That’s a colder look for later Sunday into early next week.

The Canadian Model is even colder and has a transition to some snow by later Monday into Tuesday morning…

Canadian

Where is a cold high to the north when you need one? The track on that system would be perfect for a shutdown storm if we had that high.

As is, we have to watch for a lot of rain, some thunderstorms and high winds.

Winter returns after we get that system out of the way. The end of next week into the following weekend continues to show up very well on the models…

GFS 2

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

28 Comments

Time posted: 1:58 am

Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a small break in the rainy weather, but don’t get too comfortable with it, a lot of rain is on the way. Rounds of rain return as early as Thursday, with the potential for even heavier rain this weekend and early next week.

All of this can lead to, at least, some local high water issues.

Ahead of the next round of rain comes a fairly nice day out there today. Some early day misty showers or drizzle is possible with clouds will hang tough all day. Highs will generally be in the 40s for most.

Rain and some thunder will quickly return from the southwest on Thursday and last into early Friday…

GFS 3

Another 1″-2″ of rain is possible with this system, with locally higher amounts for some in the west and central. Flash flooding is possible with this round.

The rain should move out pretty quickly on Friday as temps surge into the 60s. This carries us into the weekend and a much bigger system set to impact your weather. This comes as a huge upper level low spins into the region and closes off. The end result is a spiraling system of heavy rain, thunderstorms and wind.

The first round of rain comes as this system begins to come together on Saturday…

GFS 4

By Sunday and Monday, this bad boy really gets cranking with the GFS taking this system right on top of us…

GFS 5

The European Model is just a little farther south…

Euro

Once that system finally works to our east, Old Man Winter starts to flex some muscle. This continues to look to be another case of the second half of winter being the main show.

The cold look starts to show up by the middle and end of next week, with even colder air arriving a few days later. The Ensembles continue with a cold look…

GFS Temps

I will have updates later today. Until then, enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 7:03 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I don’t have a whole lot of changes to my earlier thoughts as this pattern is loaded for bear in the coming days. Lots of wind and water is on the way to the bluegrass state.

Heavy rain and thunder moves back in on Thursday and can cause some local high water issues into Friday morning. That system sets the stage for a MUCH bigger system later this weekend into early next week. Look at this monster…

Euro

Watch how all the rain and storms spin around this system…

Euro 2

That’s from the European Model and it’s a look that can produce some flooding issues at some point. The latest rain forecast from the GFS continues to show 4″+ inches in parts of the region…

GFS

With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, flooding is a real possibility. Highs winds will also be a huge player during this time.

A winter look follows all that later next week …

GFS 2

A full update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

14 Comments

Time posted: 12:28 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, neighbors. Soggy weather rolls on across the bluegrass state with several areas picking up another inch or so of rain last night. Additional showers are out there this afternoon for some, and the pattern is loaded with more heavy rains later this week into the weekend.

This afternoon’s showers will be mainly across the south and east…

We get a chilly break from the rain on Wednesday, but things quickly turn soggy again by Thursday and Friday. Watch how another southern system roars in from the southwest…

GFS

That can easily drop another 1″-2″ of rain on top of Kentucky.

This sets the stage for some possible high water issues later this weekend into Monday. That’s when the big daddy system develops and slowly works across our region…

GFS 2

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be noted, and this will fall on soaked ground with swollen waterways. The potential for high water is real and something we have to keep a very close eye on going forward.

The last 2 runs of the GFS show areas of 4″ rains through Monday…

GFS Rain

 

GFS Rain 2

Believe it or not, there is a good chance the model is underdone with the rain totals.

In addition to the heavy rain, the winds are going to be absolutely cranking. 50mph gusts will be possible at times with such a powerful low on top of us.

There is the chance for some flakes getting into the action by Monday as the upper low passes over us.

From there, winter takes control with another system moving in after the “big daddy”. Looking at the pattern, there’s a good chance to get snow on the ground before the month is over. That’s especially the case with these temps taking control in the final week of January…

GFS Temps

I will update things later today. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

22 Comments