Time posted: 12:27 pm

Thursday Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. Our light rain maker is rolling across the region and has a brief period of snow on the leading edge of it. As this system moves away, we focus on the weekend storm set to bring a lot of different weather our way. Everything from the potential of flooding rains to snow moves through here.

Before we get to that, let’s get to regional radar to track todays action…

Our weekend storm system remains on track to come at us via two lows. The first rolls in here with heavy rain on Saturday, with the next one taking over to our south and east. Exactly where that second low takes over is the determining factor on how much snow falls Saturday night and early Sunday.

My ranking of the biggest impacts the same yesterday…

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 1″-3″ of rain will fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The WPC has the greatest risk for flooding across central and eastern Kentucky…

Here’s the risk area for 4″+ snows from Saturday morning through Sunday morning…

It’s obvious they are not going with their own model, the GFS, and for good reason. The GFS continues to be way too fast with the overall storm speed and that limits precipitation amounts. The reason for this is because it’s putting too much emphasis on the lead low and doesn’t really see the second low until it’s way east…

Contrast that with the Hi Res NAM, which only goes through early evening Saturday. The GFS has a low over Pennsylvania while the NAM has the low on the Kentucky/Tennessee border…

You can see that swath of snow on the backside of that low. That would then work across the state quickly Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The UKMET has a very similar look to the NAM…

The new version of the GFS is kind of a split between the GFS and NAM/UKMET…

One thing for sure, the GFS has no friends. There’s a reason this model is about to be replaced.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then here on KWC this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:35 am

Some Wild For Your Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another ugly weather day across the bluegrass state as light rain/mix maker works through here. This is a little system compared to the system working in here for the upcoming weekend. This brings heavy rain, gusty winds, a touch of freezing rain, snow and a taste of arctic air.

Let’s begin with the system we have out there today. It’s a light one, but will produce some decent rains for many. Areas in the north and northeast will have just enough cold air for some light snow or a mix this morning. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Let’s talk about the big weekend storm system. This winter storm will be a monster that impacts a large chunk of real estate across the country. For Kentucky, it’s going to bring all modes of precipitation to the state. I continue to maintain we are dealing with two lows. One weak low that rides into Kentucky on Saturday, with another low developing south and east of us late Saturday into Saturday night.

In that scenario, heavy rain on Saturday may lead to some flooding issues developing. Arctic air then crashes in from the northwest Saturday evening and night, with rain going over to a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow then all snow. A band of snow would carry us into early Sunday with snow showers and a few squalls after that.

The European Model has been the absolute most consistent model, showing a very similar scenario with each run from the past few days…

The model snowfall map continues to be on the high side compared to all other models, but it has been slowly sinking south…

Again, that’s only a model run, so don’t get too terribly attached to it just yet. Let’s see it can get a few friends to agree with it before we totally jump in feet first… Or head first. 🙂

The European is also consistent on the amount of arctic air sweeping in here. Since the model has a snow pack across the state, it gets a little crazy with the Sunday night lows…

Again, lows like that would ONLY happen with a snow pack and clear skies. Let’s wait and see on that, but the rest of that cold is about right.

The closest model to the European is the new version of the GFS. This model is just beginning to see the second low idea, but it’s slower getting there…

With a slower evolution to the second low, it’s more disjointed with the snow forecast, but does show a healthy swath possible…

That brings us to the GFS. This poor model has the least amount of precipitation of any model and is the fastest of any model, by far…

Watch for that model to slow things down with future runs. That means your app forecasts will have some big swings on them since many are based off the GFS.

Some thoughts:

  • Heavy rain on Saturday may easily cause some, at least, local high water issues. You can’t put a few inches of rain down that fast without some issues, especially with our soggy ground.
  • The temp crash is going to cause a lot of issues. A flash freeze is likely Saturday night and that may turn things awfully icy as all that water from earlier freezes up.
  • A brief period of light freezing rain should show up in the transition from rain to snow.
  • The snow is still the biggest challenge of the forecast. A setup like this is usually good for accumulating snow. How fast we can change it over to snow will determine how much falls where you live.
  • I know many of you read this whole blog and only see one word… Snow. No other words exist. Some will totally skip over the heavy rain, flash freeze or arctic cold and only see snow. I say this with love, btw. 🙂
  • If you’re a fan of wild weather, this weekend is pretty awesome. Temps may hit 60 in some areas on Saturday with single digits showing up less than 24 hours later.

As we get beyond this storm, this harsh winter pattern is just kicking in. Another arctic front shows up by the middle of next week with additional systems and bitterly cold air slamming in…

As I’ve been pointing out for a while now (along with several other reputable weather sources), temps can totally get out of control during all this time…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, let’s track the early morning rain and northern mix…

Florence

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Covington

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Make it a good one and take care.

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