Stormy Times Setting Up

Good Thursday, everyone. Warmer air is pushing into the state and will bring a round of showers and storms our way later tonight. This is the first shot being fired by a very busy pattern that looks to be with us to close out the month of April.

Temps will surge into the 70s today on a gusty southwesterly wind kicking up. This is ahead of a weak front that moves across the state tonight and that’s what brings the round of storms. These will be quick movers and should be out of the state by late Friday morning. I can’t rule out some strong or severe storms coming from this line as it sweeps eastward.

Here’s what you need to track the action…

Today’s Risk Area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches

Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas Current MDs

Friday afternoon will find sunny skies returning with readings back into the 70s. We hang on to those 70s through the upcoming weekend. The next threat for storms arrives late in the day Sunday, especially in the west. This kicks off a stormy period that could deliver rounds of strong and severe storms through Monday and Tuesday. The models are also trying to put down a lot of rain. The European Model is loaded with rainfall through the end of next week. Check out the numbers…

Euro 2 Euro 3 That is certainly something for us to keep a very close eye on.

Something else to watch out for is the upper level low swinging in for the middle and end of next week. Damp and chilly weather is possible with a setup like this…

GFS

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Stormy Ending To April?

Good Wednesday, folks. After a chilly start to the day, much warmer air is set to return to the bluegrass state over the next few days. This warm air will bring will bring a few storms back into the picture, but that pales in comparison to what may be ahead of us. Things look very active as we get set to close out April and the pattern could turn very ugly.

Highs today will reach the low to mid 60s under mainly sunny skies.

The 70s for highs will shoot back in here for Thursday on a gusty southwesterly wind. This is ahead of a front that brings a round of showers and storms across the state Thursday night and Friday morning…

Euro

That action will push through here quickly with afternoon sunshine taking over. This nice weather will then carry us into Saturday as temps come down a little. Highs from 65-70 look good at the moment.

Rounds of showers and storms begin to impact the state on Sunday as a front stalls out. These rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to continue into the first half of next week. This could mean we run the risk of strong storms and heavy rainfall. Some of the models are showing several inches of rain…

Canadian For the past several days, I’ve been talking about the potential for ugly weather setting up at some point next week. This “ugly” would be chilly temps and damp weather from a slow-moving cutoff upper level low. The models are all over this…

GFS 2

That would make for some flat out nasty weather as we head toward Kentucky Derby weekend. Let’s hope this doesn’t work out, but the setup certainly doesn’t look good.

Have a great day and take care.

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The Pattern Looks Busy

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a cold front crossing the bluegrass state today and this will bring the threat for some frost late tonight. All of this is pointing toward a challenging weather pattern taking shape. Things are looking to turn much more active as we close out April and roll into May.

Today’s showers and thunderstorms will be fairly scattered and centered on the first part of the day. Clearing skies will work in from northwest to southeast as the day wears on. Here’s regional radar to track the scattered stuff…

Temps will take a big tumble behind this front on a gusty northwesterly wind. Readings by Wednesday morning will be in the 30s for many areas…

NAM

That could bring some frost to parts of central and eastern parts of the state to start the day. Afternoon temps will warm toward the low 60s under mostly sunny skies.

We hit the mid and upper 70s on Thursday as clouds increase during the afternoon and evening. This will be ahead of a cold front working in with a line of showers and thunderstorms by Friday morning…

Euro 3

Where do we go from there? The European Model continues to insist on a front stalling out across the region with waves of showers and storms showing up…

Euro

That would bring heavy rain and storms and would keep our temps on the spring side of things.  The GFS had been showing a cold and dry look, but has made the switch to something similar to what you see above from the European.

The setup appears ripe for our first substantial battle with thunderstorms from late in the weekend into early next week.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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A Sign Of Some Ugly?

Good Monday, folks. We’re kicking off a new week of weather with a cold front knocking on the doorstep. This is the first of two fronts likely to impact our weather before the week is finished. The overall pattern is getting my attention because it has some ugly potential as we get ready to close April and say hello to May.

Highs today will be back in the 70s as clouds increase from the west. Scattered showers and storms will be possible across the western half of the state…

The first cold front moves in for Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms rumbling through. Winds will gust up as temps fall from northwest to southeast later in the day. That will set the stage for a cold start to Wednesday with readings in the 30s…

GFS 3

That could mean a touch of frost to start the day. Highs will be close to 60 degrees for most areas. Warmer air moves in for Thursday and Friday with thermometers well into the 70s. This is when the next front wanders in from the west with the next chance for showers and storms on Friday.

The models are struggling a bit with what happens behind this front. The GFS brings a blast of freezing temperatures our way for the weekend. The European Model says we turn chilly as a front stalls out across the state…

EuroThat could lead to more in the way of rain chances with a bigger rain or storm maker lurking into early next week. This is when most of the models are showing some ugly with the potential for a slow-moving upper low spinning overtop of us…

GFS 2The European (top) and the GFS (bottom) both show a damp and chilly pattern as we go through Kentucky Derby week. Ugly setups like that have been known to follow winters that linger into spring. Let’s hope that doesn’t play out that way.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Your Week Ahead Outlook

Good Sunday and Happy Easter. Life is all about timing and getting beautiful weather to meet up with a holiday weekend is something to behold. The nice stuff we have out there today will give way to a more active pattern for the upcoming week. A couple of cold fronts are on the way.

Let’s tart with today and roll forward. High temps will range from the low to middle 70s for most of the state with sunny skies.

Monday’s weather looks pretty good for most of the day, but a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm could come calling. That’s ahead of a cold front that moves in for Tuesday. This will bring an increase in the threat for showers and storms…

NAM   

A nice shot of chilly air comes in behind that and could bring a frost threat by Wednesday morning as lows head toward the freezing mark…

GFS 4The warm pattern for the end of next week is looking much more wimpy than I have been thinking. We should hit the 70s by Thursday, but another cold front may sweep into the picture by Friday with another round of showers and storms…

CanadianThat would knock temps back down behind that boundary as we head into next weekend. The GFS has us solidly below normal by Saturday…

GFS 3The consistency of this pattern since last fall is astounding. Combine that with an emerging El Nino, the chances for a “hot” summer look rather dim. The one thing that could change that would be if drought conditions develop just to our west and southwest. I will have more on my summer thoughts as we get closer.

Happy Easter and take care.

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A Little More Action Ahead

Good Saturday to one and all. Our weather continues to look absolutely gorgeous on this Easter Weekend. As stated before, it simply doesn’t get a whole lot better than this for such an important holiday. Make sure to take advantage of it and go outside and play. :)

Will this pattern finally stat to produce some springtime showers and storms around here? That’s looking more like a potential for the week ahead as a couple of cold fronts show up.

The first front arrives late Monday into Tuesday and should spawn a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms…

GFSThat’s a decent shot of chill beginning to show up behind that front by Wednesday…

GFS 2The good news is that it scoots through here very quickly and leaves us with a blast of warmth for the end of next week. That’s when temps make a run at 80 degrees for much of the region.

The problem with that may come as a cold front enters the picture by the start of the weekend. Check out the clash of air masses as it rolls through here…

GFS 3That looks like it could become a severe weather maker. Could being the key word there because the severe weather signals are simply not working out well this spring. It’s a super-duper slow starter of a severe storms season across the country. This is a continuation of the quiet severe weather we had last year, but I don’t think this ends up as weak as last year. The pattern for mid and late May could really come to life!

Take care.

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A Great Looking Easter Weekend

Good Good Friday to one and all. Our Easter Weekend is off and running on a pretty good weather note and it only gets better from here. Mild air and sunny skies will combine to make Easter Sunday about as nice as it can possible be here in Kentucky.

We do run the smallest risk for a shower or thunderstorm out there today as a weak cold front enters the picture. Most of the area should remain dry, but regional radar will help you track whatever is out there…

Saturday will see a mix of sun and clouds with temps ranging from the middle 60s in the north to the low 70s in the south and west. Easter Sunday looks even better with sunshine and temps in the 70s for highs. Honestly, it does not get much better than that.

A weak cold front rolls in early next week and could spark a few showers or thunderstorms. After a short-lived drop in temps behind this front, summer looks to surge in here for the middle and end of the week…

GFS 2

80s will be possible during this time, but we will need to watch that trough across the plains states. It could become a severe weather maker as it comes out.

The setup to end the month and start May looks warm, but this type of pattern could turn into a very stormy one at some point…

GFS 3Have a great day and take care.

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Milder Temps Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. I come to you today with a much better looking forecast and that makes me a happy weatherdude. Contrary to popular belief… I love all the seasons, but want them to act the part. Spring looks to finally be up to the lead role in our weather movie.

Highs today will reach the mid and upper 60s with mostly sunny skies.

Temps by Friday will be back in the 60s with the slightest chance for a shower or thunderstorm going up. This action is along a weak cold front that moves into the Ohio Valley. Weak being the key word.

Easter Weekend continues to look great with sunny skies and temps running on the mild side. The highs from the European Model continue to climb…

EuroCan you handle temps in the 70s and sunshine for Easter? That’s rhetorical, by the way. ;)

We will have the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms around early next week. That should be followed up by a big blast of warm air for the middle and end of the week…

GFS Euro 280s are a strong possibility before next week is finished. Will that finally get our spring severe weather season going? I guess we will see, but it’s off to another super slow start.

Have a great day and take care.

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Only One Way To Go From Here

Good Wednesday to one and all. After snow and a hard freeze in the middle of April, there is only one way to go from here. Temps will begin to warm out there today and will really ramp up in the coming days. While this isn’t a very warm pattern, it’s not too bad going forward.

Highs today will rebound into the mid and upper 50s for much of the state under a mostly sunny sky. Thursday will see readings back into the mid and upper 60s and that’s about normal for this time of year.

Friday will see a weak cold front dropping in from the northwest. This boundary will deliver the threat for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. With that system looking weaker, the Easter Weekend weather is looking better. Check out the highs from the European Model…

Euro 2

There could be another weak system working in for early next week with another threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the models are trying to pop a warm pattern for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2

That’s what the GFS is seeing. The European Model is also showing some pretty toasty temps…

Euro 3Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking A Blast Of Winter

Good Tuesday. Old Man Winter has bullied his way back into the bluegrass state and is delivering some ugly stuff. A period of light snow is starting off a very cold few days that will likely feature a hard freeze across the entire region.

Here’s a breakdown…

- Light snow and flurries will be across central and eastern Kentucky early in the day. Some light accumulations are possible on elevated and grassy surfaces.

- Temps today will start in the low 30s and only recover to around 40 for central and eastern parts of the state. 40s will be noted in the south and west.

- A HARD FREEZE is likely tonight into Wednesday morning. Thermometers will drop into the low and middle 20s. Green thumbs are on alert!!

- Wednesday will see sunny skies with temps hitting the 50-55 degree mark for highs.

- Thursday and Friday will see the 60s back in town. Easter weekend looks a bit unsettled with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Temps should be a little below normal.

Let’s get to tracking

Current temperatures

Winds

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

View of Downtown
Cynthiana

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Stay warm and enjoy the day. Take care.

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