Time posted: 1:55 am

Rounds Of Rain Roll In

Good Friday, folks. A big upper level system is rolling into the region and it’s bringing rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms with it. This action carries us through the better part of the weekend as things turn a bit ugly, but stay fairly mild.

This continues to be part of an overall milder setup, but wintry changes continue to show up as we get into the weekend before Christmas and into Christmas week.

In the short-term, it’s all about the waves of showers and a few thunderstorms spiraling across the bluegrass state. It’s not going to rain all the time, but some hefty totals are possible through Saturday night. The Hi Res NAM continues to show pockets of 2″+ rains…

Here are your Friday radars to track the increase in showers and storms…

Lingering clouds and showers continue into, at least, part of Sunday. The day turns chillier with the NAM showing temps struggling to get to 40 in some areas…

Temps early next week are rather seasonal before returning to above normal by Wednesday. That’s ahead of another cold working into town by Thursday of next week. This system may have something it tries to pick up from the south, turning it into a bigger storm system. That’s been showing up more and more on some of the models…

ICON

The European Model has a stronger storm system Thursday and Friday…

That robust system also shows up on the Canadian and is then followed by another system digging in here next weekend…

Again, this is all kicking off a wintry pattern when many folks like to see it… around Christmas.

The last two runs of the GFS Ensembles snow average like the snow chances through Christmas week…

Updates come your way later in the day. Have a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:31 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. It’s a very quiet evening, but things are about to turn active as we head into the weekend. Rounds of rain and rumbles of thunder are on the way. This continues to be part of an overall milder setup through next week, but changes are brewing for late next week.

Heavy rains are possible through Saturday night…

Here are your radars to follow the rain closer to the state…

Milder air hangs through much of next week, but a cold front tries to crash the party by Thursday and Friday. The Euro has been hinting at this for a while and now the GFS is jumping on this…

That introduces a much colder setup that can throw snow chances our way into Christmas week. The models continue to see the chance for snow Christmas Eve and Day…

Soooooo… You’re telling me there’s a chance? 🙂

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:21 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. In what has been the theme of 2018… Another big rain maker is rumbling into the bluegrass state and will carry us through the coming weekend. As we look into the longer range, we see Old Man Winter plotting his return in the days leading up to Christmas.

This big upper level helping create the waves of rain is a slow-mover and that means ugly weather through Sunday. Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ will be possible during this time, with a few spots coming in with the over. The Hi Res NAM only goes through Saturday, but has a few 2″-3″ spots in central Kentucky…

That model is picking up on a few areas of thunderstorms, so you will see more of the “hotspots” of rain. The GFS is more of a smooth average without storms…

The pattern after that continues to skew mild through the middle of next week. A system dives in by the end of the week to change that, but the real change happens next weekend into Christmas week. A trough deepens across the country, allowing much colder air to come back in. Combine that with an active storm track and you have the chance for some of the white stuff on, or around, the big day.

Check out the new version of the GFS and all the systems it is tracking…

It’s a rather interesting look for the big day and week surrounding it. Keep dreaming and maybe it will become a reality. Don’t forget, it did snow lightly last year on Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning. 🙂

I will have another update later today, so y’all come back now. Ya hear?

Take care.

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Time posted: 1:55 am

Upper Level Low Means Heavy Rain Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. Give this is the already the wettest year on record for many areas, this isn’t a surprise, but another big rain maker is rolling in. Heavy rain, thunder and gusty winds are all on tap for the next few days, courtesy of a slow-moving upper level low moving through here. Get ready for some ugly.

This upper low has been well talked about on here for a while now, so you’ve had plenty of heads up on the ugly ahead. Check out this spin that has nothing to carry it along…

Gusty showers will be noted today, especially across the western half of the state…

Rounds of rain and some thunder will really kick in tonight and carry us through Saturday night. Heavy rainfall is a likely and it may cause some quick rises on area creeks and streams. 1″-2″ rain numbers are possible during this time…

A seasonal chill follows that, but the setup continues to run milder than normal into next week. All that starts to change by later next week into the weekend before Christmas. This brings colder air back in here and may supply some moisture in the process. This could work out to bring some snow into our region in the leadup to the big day…

The Ensembles have been showing a favorable pattern for a while and now the operational models are starting to like the winter chances around Christmas Eve and Day…

It’s all about trends and pattern recognition from this distance, so don’t get too attached to any one run. 😉

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:30 pm

Midweek Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Clouds are rolling in ahead of a potent storm system ready to roll into the region with heavy rain and gusty winds. This comes courtesy of a big upper level low slowly spinning in an overall milder pattern that lass into next week. Once there, winter continues to show big signs of coming back.

A shower or two will develop ahead of this system later this evening into tonight…

We’ve talked about this big upper low moving in, and you can see what I’m talking about in this animation…

There’s nothing to push it along, so it has a mind of its own and meanders through here. That leads to a lot of ugly weather taking shape from later Thursday through Saturday. Rounds of rain and rumbles of thunder will be common, and some hefty totals should show up. 1″-2″ amounts may be noted…

GFS

Canadian

Winds will be gusty during this time as temps hang around or just above average. A seasonal chill moves in behind that, but temps quickly moderate next week.

As we have been talking about, changes begin to show up late next week into the weekend before Christmas. A couple of system dive in from the northwest, but they don’t have a ton of cold air with them. Here’s the Canadian for the end of next week…

The European is similar..

It has the next system quickly following by the weekend…

The setup for Christmas week continues to favor deepening troughs swinging into the country as blocking starts to go up near Alaska and toward the North Pole. The Ensembles have been showing this for a while and now the operational models are going in that direction…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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