Time posted: 2:10 am

A Few Strong To Severe Storms Possible

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are heading into a fairly active setup across the Ohio Valley as rounds of showers and storms target our part of the world. Some of those storms out there today could be on the strong side as this pattern begins to skew wetter than normal. Oh yeah… some cool shots of air also show up.

Let’s start with today’s thunderstorm potential.  A complex of strong to severe storms may roll in here from the northwest this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk for this is across the western and central parts of the state. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The strongest storms may contain damaging winds and large hail. In addition to the severe threat, these storms will also put down a lot of rain and put on a pretty good light show.

A few more showers and storms will be noted on Wednesday as the front drops in from the northwest. That boundary then slows down right on top of us for Thursday and Friday, keeping showers and storms around. There’s even the chance some of that sticks around into the coming weekend as temps come way down.

The models are all on board with some good rain totals…

GFS

Canadian

European

As we head into the final week of August and closer to the Labor Day Weekend, the models are still on board with a significant trough developing across the middle of the country and spreading east. Here’s that trough on the European Model for the second half of next week…

The Ensembles are also on this and keep it goring into Labor Day Weekend…

GFS

Euro

I would be ok with that! You guys? 😉

I leave you with your Tuesday thunder tracking toys…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 2:10 am

Steamy Turns To Stormy This Week

Good Monday, everyone. We are kicking off the new week with more in the way of steamy temperatures, but stormy skies will definitely be on the increase. Rounds of showers and storms will ramp up over the next few days as a cold front slowly works toward the region. That will bring a big decrease temps for the second half of the week.

Today’s temps are similar to the past few days, but a scattering of showers and storms may go up and help us out a bit. These storms shouldn’t be severe per say, but one or two could push the strong boundary. Here are your radars to track the action…

Tuesday finds a better shot at a few strong or severe storms, especially across the northern half of the state. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Our front slides into the region on Wednesday and that will bring more in the way of showers and storms to much of the region. The severe threat may also still be around…

Heavy rainfall is a good bet for some and that could cause local high water issues to develop. Does this front slow down on top of the Tennessee Valley and let low pressure develop along it? Many models think so and keep showers and storms going from Thursday into Friday…

EURO

Canadian

That could impact the kickoff of the high school football season.

The days leading up to Labor Day weekend are taking on more of a cooler look with a deepening trough possibly showing up. Look at this trough digging in on the European Model…

That also shows up well on the Canadian…

Have a great Monday and take care.

32 Comments

Time posted: 2:02 am

More Sizzle and A Few Storms

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another hot and humid day taking shape across the Commonwealth. A few scattered showers and storms may try to join the party, but those look very isolated. Changes do show up for the week ahead as a cold front gets ready to press in here with an increase in storms and a decrease in temps.

I’m also going to take a look at the rest of August into the middle of September.

As usual, let’s talk about today right off the bat. Temps will generally be in the lower 90s for many areas with humidity levels adding to the uncomfortableness of the air. Any shower or storm would be welcome, but don’t hold your breath on one. Here’s regional radar in case you do…

Scattered showers and storms will be noted on Monday and Tuesday as temps stay in a similar range to today…

A cold front then enters the picture by Wednesday, with several models now slowing this down through Thursday. That would bring us a prolonged chance for showers and storms…

Cooler air comes in behind that for the end of the week into the weekend, but a back and forth temperature pattern is likely to follow that. This should skew warmer than normal, but may also skew wetter than normal. The GFS Ensembles continue to show above average rainfall over the next two weeks. Here are the rainfall departures…

This wetter than normal trend is echoed by the CFS Weekly forecasts. Here are the weekly temperature and precipitation anomalies…

I know those aren’t the best maps, but they give you a good look at the setup across North America.

If we expand that out through the first two weeks of September, the CFS goes cooler than normal for much of the country…

That is an interesting look and one I wouldn’t really complain too much about. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

31 Comments