Time posted: 1:40 pm

Sunday Afternoon Snow Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. The setup for the next few days continues to look interesting as a wave of low pressure develops along a strong cold front. This is something we’ve been highlighting for a week now and I can finally get a little more specific on who has the best chance to see snow on the ground.

Here are some headlines for the next few days:

  • Rain develops tonight and takes us into Monday.
  • Temps will be mild and may approach 60 on a gusty southwest wind.
  • The cold front moves from west to east Monday night and Tuesday with crashing temps behind this.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing a stripe of accumulating snow from Texas to New England.
  • Which part of Kentucky gets in on this depends on where this front is when the low develops. Right now, areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky have the best chance at picking up on accumulating snows.
  • There’s the chance for several inches of snow to fall in the southeast and this could be our first THREAT level event of the season.
  • There will be a sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow. Exactly where that is remains to be seen and a few miles difference could be the difference in no snow and a few inches of snow.
  • I expect more model changes as we get closer to this system.

Here’s my initial look at the areas with the best chance of putting snow on the ground…

Again, that’s just my initial map and I assure you my thoughts will change some as we get closer. I may even get a First Call For Snowfall map out later tonight.

As far as the models are concerned, we are still seeing some subtle changes from run to run of each model. Let’s take a little look…

GFS

GFS Snowfall Map

European Model

European Model Snowfall Map

NAM

The NAM Snowfall Map appears to be on steroids..

Canadian

Canadian Snowfall Map

As you can see, the models all have the same general idea, but differ on placement and amounts. That’s typical of an event. We are getting to within 48 hours, we should see the models lock in.

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

11 Comments

Time posted: 1:48 am

An Interesting Setup Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling through a calm weather day, but things are about to change in a hurry. An interesting setup is showing up from Monday through Wednesday and it could bring rain to accumulating snow for some. That wave of low pressure idea I’ve had looks like it will be playing out.

Clouds will thicken out there today as temps hit the 50-55 degree range for many. A few showers may show up this evening, but the real action doesn’t begin until Monday.That’s when a cold front moves in here with rain ahead of it as low pressure works into the Great Lakes. Temps on Monday may flirt with 60 degrees.

That front slows down as it crosses the state on Tuesday with cold air crashing in behind it. At the same time, a wave of low pressure develops and works along our boundary, enhancing precipitation along and, especially, behind the front. That would allow for rain to change to a mix and then snow. Where is this front as the low develops? That’s still the big question.

The trend has been for this to happen in a region that can bring a much better chance for accumulating snow across parts of Kentucky.

Let me say that the following maps and models are just that… Maps and models that can change from run to run and I assure you they will. The numbers below are from the models and NOT me. I’m telling you there’s the chance for accumulating snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Where that happens is still well up in the air.

The NAM decided to really hit the snow potential across central and eastern Kentucky…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the NAM…

The GFS isn’t as juiced up in the north and west, but has a similar theme and is farther northwest than earlier runs…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the GFS…

The Canadian Model is also keying on a similar area…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro…

The European Model went back down the progressive road compared to the last run of the model…

Here’s the snowfall map from that run of the Euro…

Again, don’t go waxing the sleds, let’s see what the Sunday trends hold.

The temp crash on Monday night is fairly prolific and with the winds, it’s going to feel even colder. Check out the numbers…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

34 Comments

Time posted: 8:17 pm

Saturday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by to share the late day runs of the GFS and European Models. Both of those decided to trend closer to what the Canadian was showing earlier as they start to see the wave of low pressure idea a little bit better.

The earlier run of the European Model had little if any snow across Kentucky on Tuesday, but I pointed out how it did not match the Euro Ensembles. Well the very next run of the Euro decided to surpass the Ensembles…

The snow map from that run of the Euro is closer to what the Canadian was showing..

The new average snowfall from the Euro Ensembles is more expansive…

The GFS also decided to deliver a little better shot of snow than it’s last run and is even trying to fire up a separate behind the Tuesday one…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS…

The takeaway from all this is we are seeing the models trending toward a better organized system that’s farther west. Is this a trend that will continue? That’s a question I cannot answer as of now. It will be fun to watch the overnight and Sunday runs to see how they roll.

Could this be our first WST of the season for a part of Kentucky? We shall see.

I’ll have the latest with my next update. Until then, enjoy the evening and take care.

5 Comments