Cooler Weather On The Way

Good Tuesday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms have caused a lot of issues across Kentucky over the past several days. We are getting ready to turn off the faucet and turn on some of the nice stuff in the coming days. If you are a fan of warmer weather, I have some of that on the way, too.

A cold front is crossing the state and carrying a few more showers and thunderstorms with it. This action will be much more isolated in nature compared to the past several days. Winds will gust up as the boundary slides through with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s…

Current temperatures

Much cooler and drier air blows in for the middle of the week. Check out the lows coming from the GFS…

GFS

Highs look to be in the 70s for Wednesday. Here’s the NAM…

NAM

The pleasant air hangs around through the rest of the week and we may try to squeeze out a stray shower on Thursday. Warmer air is going to try to fight in this weekend, but the models continue to want to bring a couple of waves of low pressure our way. Even the GFS is showing this…

GFS

That would certainly throw a wrench into any warm up.  If those lows are for real… tropical downpours would return and we’ve seen what can happen when those are around.

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy Rain Threat Continues

Good Monday, everyone. Weekend thunderstorms have dumped a ton of rain on several places across the bluegrass state. Sunday turned into the 4th wettest day on record for Lexington with more than 5″. This has set the stage for the possibility of additional flash flooding today into tonight as a cold front enters the picture.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to come at us in waves today as the front presses closer from the northwest. We will also run the potential for a few strong storms going up. The big story will continue to be the tropical rains associated with these storms. These boomers can easily drop several inches of water in a short amount of time. The flash flood risk for today into tonight is elevated.

 

 

Tuesday will find the cold front blowing through here with cooler and drier air to follow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be around Tuesday as the front slips through. Temps behind this boundary will slip back into the 70s for highs with lows that may drop into the upper 40s to low 50s…

GFS 2The closer we get to this blast, the cooler it looks. Some very pleasant weather is on the way for the middle of the week.

The end of the week into the weekend now has a wrench thrown into it from the European Model. This was the first model to sniff out our weekend system and it’s trying to do something similar for next weekend…

GFSAs you can see, it brings another low pressure scooting across the region. The rain and clouds would then keep temps well below normal…

Euro 2 I’m not sold on this solution right now as the pattern should favor the return of warmer air. That said… the trend of the summer isn’t something we should ignore.

Have a great day and take care.

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More Of The Same

Good Sunday, everyone. It is pretty much more of the same as far as our weather is concerned. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to push across the region over the next few days. That’s when we get another cool shot of air moving in. Sound familiar? That’s what I thought.

Showers and storms today will be especially prominent across central and eastern Kentucky. With a tropical feel to the air, watch for storms to put down a tremendous amount of water in a short period of time. That could cause some local flash flooding similar to what hit Bowling Green Saturday.

 

Showers and storms will continue Monday and Tuesday as a strong cold front moves our way form the northwest. The setup looks like something you would see during the cold weather season…

Euro Very pleasant temperatures move in on our northwesterly wind flow for the middle and end of the week. Temps will continue to run several degrees below normal…

Euro 2

There are signs of a warm and humid pattern taking shape for the following week. The medium and longer range models continue to show that and some wetter times ahead. The CFS rainfall forecast through the middle of September…

CFSSome of the years I’m looking at as being similar to this one did produce some pretty good rains in September. As with anything, time will tell.

Spearing of rain…

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking Storms and Another Cool Blast

Good Saturday, weather weenies. Rounds of showers and storms continue to work across Kentucky and this is a trend that takes us into early next week. That’s when another blast of cool air sweeps in from the northwest. Of course, it’s not like the current temps are normal or above… but, you get the idea.

Today’s storms have a little more potential to be on the strong side as our low spins overhead. Heavy rainfall will be a good bet, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. These rounds of boomers will carry us through Sunday with additional heavy rainfall.

Monday will find another system diving in from the northwest. This will bring additional showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front…

Euro

That sets the stage for another extended run of well below normal temperatures…

Euro 2I do think the shots of cool will cool it for a while later this month into a part of September.

Let’s get back to tracking today’s drops…

 

 

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Heavy Rain and Storms For The Weekend

Good Friday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are rumbling across the commonwealth of Kentucky. This action will carry us through the weekend and will deliver heavy rainfall numbers to many areas. This could be enough to cause some local high water issues. Oh yea… it gets cool again next week.

Many areas should see around 1″ of rain through Sunday. Much higher amounts are possible and those are the spots we will need to keep a close eye on. The rain and storms will come at us in waves with some breaks in between. Highs may not get out of the 70s for several cities during this time.

Track away…

Current temperatures

 

 

Scattered showers and storms will carry us into the first half of next week. That’s when we start to see another deep trough digging in across the region…

Euro 3Below normal temps continue to rule the roost…

Euro 2Check out the 5 day average departures in Celsius from the GFS Ensembles…

Euro 4That takes us to the 18th day of the month and likely ensures another colder than normal temperature month for many areas.

The weather pattern since last summer has been among the easiest I’ve ever seen to forecast. I’m not talking about individual systems, but the overall pattern.

Have a great day and take care.

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Low Pressure To Bring Rounds Of Storms

Good Thursday, everyone. Much needed rainfall is on the way to the bluegrass state over the next several days. Low pressure working in from west to east will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.

Today’s weather will find us in similar fashion to the past few days. Highs will hit the mid and upper 80s for central and eastern Kentucky with 90ish across the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be floating around and will increase from west to east late.

Current temperatures

Our low pressure moves in on Friday with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread during the day. That action looks to continue into Friday night and early Saturday…

NAM

Low pressure working due east across the Ohio Valley in early August isn’t something you see very often. It will continue to spit out a few rounds of showers and storms into early next week. Beneficial rains are likely…

GFSWe will have to watch for some local high water issues and the potential for a strong storm or two.

This will knock temps down a few degrees as our cooler than normal summer rolls on. We aren’t alone in that. Check out how much of the country is below normal since June 1st…

CFSHave a great day and take care.

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Thunder Chances On The Rise

Happy Wednesday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are getting ready to rumble across the bluegrass in the coming days. The action is likely to come at us in waves and will put down some needed rainfall across the region. All of this is setting the stage for additional blasts of cool showing up over the next few weeks.

Scattered storms will develop out there today with similar temps to what you had Tuesday.

Current temperatures

 Thunderstorm action picks up later Thursday into Friday as a wave of low pressure works into the region from the west. This will give us a good shot at some locally heavy rain to go along with a strong storm or two. On and off storms will then take us through the weekend.

Even the GFS is picking up on some decent totals through early next week…

GFS 2The same model shows a nice setup for rainfall through the next 2 weeks…

GFS 3

That run basically backs up the rainfall totals from the CFS in my last post. It is interesting to see the models with a similar evolution for rain.

Another cool thing to see on the GFS is the return of the winter looking pattern we’ve seen on several occasions this summer…

GFS 4That’s once we get into the middle of the month and also shows some early season buildup of the white stuff across northern Canada…

GFS 5Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking The Increase In Storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. Your friendly weatherdude is enjoying a week away from work, but that doesn’t mean I’m not working. The blog is a one man machine that never takes a day off. The weather doesn’t take time off so why should I? Never mind, it’s rhetorical. :)

Highs today will be in similar fashion compared to where they were for Monday. Low and mid 80s for central and eastern Kentucky with upper 80s to around 90 in the west. Low 90s will show up for areas that have the driest ground.

We will also have a better shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms going up.

Current temperatures

 Wednesday will see an increase in the coverage of the showers and storms… especially in the west. The NAM suggests we will need to watch the late week for clusters of storms trying to pop with a wave of low pressure scooting in…

NAM 3

That trend looks to carry us into the weekend. Pinpointing the exact placement for these showers and storms will be the task as roll forward. Several models are trying to key in on western parts of the state getting some much needed rainfall. Let’s hope that’s the case.

Speaking of rainfall, the latest 40 day rainfall forecast from the CFS looks like this:

CFSThat certainly offers more hope across western Kentucky. The setup above argues for storm clusters developing across the plains and rolling southeastward. It also shows the potential for additional tropical development just off shore.

As far as temps go, readings will come down some late week into the weekend. Timing the next big buckle of the jet stream is difficult with so much going on in the tropics… both with the Atlantic and the Pacific.

The models continue to try to do that next week. The European Ensembles…

Euro 2

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Storms Increase Later This Week

Good Monday, everyone. We’re rolling our way into the first week of August and things look to turn a little stormy later this week. That’s certainly great news for areas of the state still needing to make up some ground in the rainfall department. I’m also tracking a pattern that continues to favor cooler than normal temps.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will range form the low 80s in the east to 90 in the west. It’s western parts of the state that has the driest ground and that allows temps to spike. That will be the trend of the next few days.

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday.

The action starts to increase by Wednesday into Thursday and should really take off by the end of the week into the weekend. A potent area of low pressure looks to work right on top of the state. That un-summer type setup should deliver rounds of showers and storms.

The European Model continues to spit out some hefty totals…

Euro 2

The GFS has been beyond awful of late and is in it’s usual catch up mode. It is finally starting to see the setup the other models have been showing for days…

GFS 4

That’s still too disjointed as the model suffers a lot of feedback issues with thunderstorms.

The overall pattern continues to be skewed cooler than normal for much of the central and eastern part of the country. The numbers through the middle of August don’t really change a ton on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 2

GFS 3That certainly takes us past the “heart” of the summer heat season around here. While the pattern is cooler overall, that doesn’t mean we can get toasty from time to time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 90 show up after Labor Day.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Stuck Between Cool and Hot

Good Sunday, folks. It’s pretty much more of the same across Kentucky for the next couple of days as a daily threat for shower or storm remains. While temps do come up a bit, the overall setup for later in the week is likely to place us between heat to our south and west and cool to the north and east. This could spell rounds of thunderstorms working across the region.

Highs today will range from the low 80s east to upper 80s in the west. Scattered thunderstorms will flare back up during the afternoon and evening with the greatest threat across the east.

Current Temperatures

Highs over the next couple of days will continue to come up with readings reaching the mid 80s east with 90 degrees possible in the west. Throw in some more humidity and you will still have the threat for a shower or storm to go up.

The storm chances begin to increase by the middle and end of the week as systems dive in from the northwest. The European Model shows a vigorous system dropping in…

Euro 2

The Canadian Model is jumping on a similar scenario…

CanadianA setup like that in August can really cause some major storm complexes to move over the same areas. Will that area include Kentucky? It has a good shot and something to watch out for.

Something else to watch for will be another deep trough digging into the region over the next couple of weeks. Odds favor this coming down the road in the following week. The GFS Ensembles look the part…

GFS 2

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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