Time posted: 2:16 am

All Eyes On A Fun Looking Weekend

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day with a few flakes flying across the bluegrass state with a lot more action on the way. We flipped the switch back to winter last week, but the Old Man (I’m not talking about myself) is just getting started. An arctic front arrives this weekend and will have a winter storm along it. This is likely to bring all kinds of precipitation to the bluegrass state.

As always, we start with what’s going on today and roll forward. A few flurries or light snows may be flying from time to time, with patchy freezing drizzle possible. Much of this will not show up on radar…

A weak front drops in on Wednesday and may spit out a few snow showers as it does so. From there, a weak low develops to our west and rolls right across the state Thursday into Thursday night. That one is mainly rain, but some wet snow is possible on the front end and back end of this system. especially north. Here’s the NAM for the next few days…

This weekend’s winter storm is going to be headline making system for a significant portion of the country. An arctic boundary sags into the Ohio Valley by Saturday as a couple of lows ride northeast along it. Exactly where that boundary sets up won’t be known for a few more days, but that’s the key player in determining the weather in your backyard.

All modes of precipitation are on the table this weekend, but the early signal is for heavy rain and local high water issues giving way to the potential for freezing rain and snow as arctic temps crash in.

The European Model continues to show this well…

As I’ve mentioned for the past few days, the most awesome part of this setup for me is the temperature swing. 60 to single digits in less than 24 hours? That’s certainly a possibility. Watch the bottom drop out…

In addition to the potential for freezing rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday, that quick of a temperature drop following that much rain could lead to a big time ice up. It’s been a while since this region experienced a true flash freeze.

Another aspect of this setup… The wind. Gusts of 40mph or greater may show up as the cold crashes in…

Many of you are just want snow and I totally get that. But, if you’re a true fan of weather like myself, all the action packed into this weekend is pretty awesome to see. Oh and you may even get some snow out of it if you play nice. 😉

Here’s a little looksee at some of the other models…

New GFS

Canadian

Areas getting snow and ice on the ground have a legit shot at zero by Monday morning with a wind chill even colder than that.

Another storm system will quickly follow that up a few days later, unleashing a fresh round of arctic air. Temps showing up with that blast continue to send a little shiver down the spine…

Again, it’s not just the operational models showing this harsh winter pattern developing. This is about as cold as you can get the GFS Ensembles…

Again, those departures are in Celsius instead of Fahrenheit.

I will drop by for updates later today as my 4 day weekend comes to a close with a visit to the dentist. 🙂 Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:38 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts On What’s Ahead

Good evening, everyone. We have a heck of a storm system on the way to the region this coming weekend. It’s one that will bring a lot of precipitation our way and it’s likely to be in many forms. Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are all possible during this time.

Between now and then, periods of light snow and some freezing drizzle continue through Tuesday. Some very light accumulations continue to be possible. Another weak front may bring a rain or snow shower on Wednesday.

The Thursday system is mainly rain, but may start and end as a touch of frozen stuff.

That takes us to the weekend winter storm that is going to impact millions and millions of folks across the eastern half of the country, including here in Kentucky. This is a storm developing along a true arctic cold front that’s pressing across the state. The temperature gradient along this will be a sight to see.

The whole setup is going to produce heavy amounts of precipitation that can take on many forms. Flooding rains to significant snow and ice may show up across our region.

Let’s look at total precipitation through the weekend…

The European Model from WeatherBell is spitting out 3″-4″ of QPF (Rain and melted down snow and ice)…

The GFS has similar totals…

The Euro continues to have a significant freezing rain signal…

The GFS is much lighter with the ice…

I’m #teamGFS because no one wants ice!!

Snowfall amounts vary significantly from run to run as the models handle the arctic boundary differently. The European…

The GFS is much skimper…

But the earlier run had more…

The new version of the GFS is much closer to the European Model than the model it’s about to replace.

I mentioned the temperature trend is going to be nothing short of awesome to watch as arctic air slams in here. Check out the temperature trend on the European Model…

If you’re a true weather weenie of any kind, you have to be in awe of such a swing. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

After that system moves through, another winter storm may develop a few days later with another surge of arctic air Watch how little time there is between storms…

The temps behind that one…

Again,  this is the kind of pattern that produces legends for the country.

I’ll see you guys tonight for another blowout update. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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