Time posted: 3:04 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to slowly develop from southwest to northeast across the bluegrass state. This is kicking off a very active final week of April, featuring several wet weather makers rolling through. Some ugly is showing up by the weekend, but we flip the switch to spring for Derby week.

I have no real changes to the rounds of rain and thunderstorms rolling through here over the next few days. Heavy amounts of rain are likely to fall across the region during this time, with the potential for some local high water issues. The best chance for that is in the west through Monday.

The models continue to show the heavy rain potential, with some 3″+ spots…

Here’s regional radar to track the increase in the action…

The system diving in here from Friday into the weekend is pretty darn impressive for this time of year. Check out how this thing looks at 500mb…

That type of look can bring some very chilly temps, gusty winds, showers and even some high elevation snowflakes.

The good news is that it isn’t going to hang around forever, with mother nature trying to flip a switch to spring as we head into Kentucky Derby week. Watch this big ridge develop across the eastern half of the country, sending the cold into the west…

Warm temps are likely to develop for the week, but we will need to be on guard for some big thunderstorms lurking as we get closer to the big weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:33 am

Heavy Rain Slowly Develops

Good Sunday, folks. Our run of very nice weather days is about to come to an end, with rounds of heavy rain settling back in. This action may even bring a local high water threat as we roll through the next few days, leading us into a very active and ugly week ahead.

Clouds continue to thicken today, with heavy rain developing across the west. This is in response to a slow-moving area of low pressure rumbling into our region. Heavy rains appear to be a good bet, leading to a local flood threat for some. Here’s the area of greatest concern through Monday…

This looks like a general 1″-3″ rain for much of the region, with the Greatest Risk area potentially picking up more than 3″ of rain.

Here’s your regional radar to track the developing rains across the west…

Additional showers and some thunderstorms will move in here Tuesday into Wednesday as another system dives in from the northwest.

A bigger system will come in behind that from Friday into the coming weekend. That one is courtesy of another cold air outbreak, bringing chilly showers, gusty winds and the potential for high elevation flakes…

That is one ugly weather maker that, when you think about it, makes for a very appropriate end to April. It’s been an ugly month for our region and much of the country. This is a lot of real estate with colder than normal numbers so far this month…

The first 4 months of the year are averaging colder than normal…

That’s impressive given the extreme warmth we had in February, which was among the warmest ever here in Kentucky.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:18 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are putting the wraps on another nice looking spring day across the Commonwealth. This nice weather is still cooler than normal, but we will take it after what we’ve had of late. As we get ready for the final full week of April, another round of ugly is on he way. Sigh.

Sunday will find clouds thickening, but much of the region stays dry. Showers and some thunder will develop across the west and south later in the day. That action then increases Sunday night and Monday, bringing a heavy rain threat in here. That’s from our southern system working through the region, with another system coming in behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The models continue to increase the rain numbers showing up…

Some local high water issues can’t be ruled out, especially in the west and south. Temps through the duration of the two events will run blow normal.

Speaking of below normal, the end of the week into the weekend continues to look crazy chilly for the end of April. This comes from a deep trough digging in here, bringing another round of showers and wind with it…

Canadian

GFS

That’s one ugly setup, with flakes potentially flying not too far from here. We will have to watch and see how it all evolves in the coming days.

Temps still look to recover as we head into Kentucky Derby week. My early impression is for a nice warm up, with thunderstorms making an appearance. At some point this may, we are likely to blow the lid off on this severe weather season.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:30 am

Looking For Some Changes

Good Saturday, everyone. The weekend is off and running with very nice weather across our part of the world. The nice isn’t going to hang out long, as a series of ugly weather makers roll through Kentucky in the coming week. That means rain chances go up and temps go down.

In the longer term, I’m seeing signs of hope for Kentucky Derby Week. 🙂

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps hitting the 60s for the entire state. Those clouds will continue to thicken on Sunday, with rain moving in to the west and far south later in the afternoon and evening. That surge of rain is from out slow moving southern storm system and will continue to throw rain at us into Monday. Another system then dives in from the northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping showers around…

The heaviest rains during this time will be across the southern half of the state…

Gusty winds and below normal temps will be common as both systems roll through.

The setup for the end of the week into the weekend isn’t looking much better, and  at actually look worse. Check out this ugly system showing up on the European…

The GFS is very similar and even some… Some… I can’t even…

That’s a very cold look coming from another deep trough across the eastern half of the country…

As that’s happening, bigger changes are going on in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to the possibility of the pattern flipping to warm as we head into May. Watch how the western ridge comes east, with the jet steam allowing the west to turn chilly for a change…

A pattern like that could bring 80s in the days leading up to Derby…

Keep your fingers crossed on that pattern actually developing!! 🙂

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:01 am

Some Ugly Showing Up Next Week

Good Friday, folks. We have finally made it to the end of the week, with the weekend just hours away from officially beginning. Much of that weekend forecast is looking pretty good, but there’s some ugly ready to roll back in here late in the weekend into much of next week.

Let’s break down the Good… The Bad… and The Ugly.

The GOOD

Sunny skies will be noted today and through much of Saturday. Highs this afternoon hit the upper 50s and low 60s for much of the state. Highs should reach the low and middle 60s on Saturday.

The BAD

Clouds will thicken up Saturday night into early Sunday. Rain arrives across the west and south by late Sunday. Temps will still be in decent shape ahead of the rain, with 60-65 before the drops fall.

The UGLY

Two slow-moving systems will roll across our part of the world through much of next week. That means the potential for rounds of showers and gusty winds…

Temps will also continue to be cooler than normal through next week…

If we look down the road toward the last few days of April into the start of May, the trend continues to look chilly. The 5 day average departures on the European Ensembles…

Have a wonderful Friday and take care.

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