Time posted: 7:01 pm

Updating The Florence Impact On Kentucky

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on Florence and the impact on it will have on our weather later this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds are on the way to central and eastern Kentucky.

Florence is a super slow-moving Tropical Storm moving out of North Carolina and into South Carolina. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

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Florence could still be a Tropical Depression when it arrives in the bluegrass state.

The Hurricane Models continue to be spot on with the same forecast they’ve had all week long…

The same can be said of the GFS Ensembles…

For those who have been solely relying on the European Model, you should stop. It was awful with Gordon and it’s been awful with Florence. The Euro still things Gordon went to Chicago instead of Lexington.

As I mentioned earlier, the center of what’s left of Florence is likely to work across the state Sunday into early Monday. Winds can be very gusty with this system. It’s also been cool to actually see that center showing up on the Wind Gust Forecast map…

The greatest threat from Florence will come from the heavy rainfall. This is a general look at what I’m expecting…

Locally higher amounts may show up along and east of the center of circulation, and those areas will have the greatest risk for flooding issues.

Ahead of the arrival of Florence, watch for some tropical downpour producing showers and storms to go up Saturday afternoon and evening.

We are also seeing a few of those out there this evening…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:12 am

Florence To Bring A Late Weekend Impact

Good Friday, everyone. Hurricane Florence continues to pound much of the Carolinas today. This slow-moving system will then head into the Tennessee Valley later Saturday with a late Sunday through Monday date with our part of the world.

This will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds to central and eastern Kentucky. I will get to that in a bit, but let’s start things out with a check on the vitals of our hurricane…

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I want to make sure you guys are utilizing my interactive radar to it’s full potential. You can zoom in on any location in the country to track weather conditions, including showing the latest watches and warnings, real time weather information and live storm chaser cams. You can even make this a standalone window from this blog. Anyway, take it for a stroll and zoom in on Florence and watch the live video streams from chasers in the path of the storm…

The hurricane models are pretty much set in bringing the remnant low into the eastern half of the state later Sunday into Monday…

The GFS Ensembles are on the same page…

The GFS has been in lock step with the Ensembles and hurricane models for several days now…

Let’s review how all of this could play out through early next week…

  • Scattered showers and storms will be around this afternoon and then again on Saturday. Temps are pretty steamy and tropical feeling.
  • What’s left of Florence moves from south to north across the eastern half of the state later Sunday into early Monday. This could still be a tropical depression as it moves in.
  • Given the relatively fast movement of this system, it shouldn’t be able to come close to rain totals from last weekend. Plus, the setup is entirely different.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible across central and eastern Kentucky with locally higher amounts. Some areas of the west may not see very much rain, if any.
  • Given the recent rains, local high water issues may develop across the east.
  • Winds will be fairly gusty as this system moves through. Gusts of 30-40mph will be possible Sunday and Sunday night.

I will have another update later today, so be sure to check back. Until then, let’s track any shower or storm that goes up to end the week…

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:21 pm

Tracking Hurricane Florence

Good evening, gang. Hurricane Florence continues to slowly approach the North Carolina coast and will absolutely pound North Carolina and South Carolina over the next few days. Once inland, it will finally begin to pick up speed by Saturday and will roll our way. This may very well still be a tropical depression as it crosses the border into the bluegrass state.

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Here is your interactive radar, complete with live storm tracker feeds from the areas getting hit. Just zoom in and track everything this storm has to offer up…

The hurricane models continue to be locked in on taking the remnants of this system into Kentucky.

The GFS Ensembles are also locked on the track on us…

The GFS continues to take the center of circulation right on top of central Kentucky. Check out how Florence moves across Florence, Ky…

Here’s the overall journey of Florence…

Here’s how things look to play out:

  • Scattered storms go up during the afternoon hours over the next few days. Tropical downpours are possible.
  • The remnant low from Florence moves on top of us Sunday through early Monday. That will bring heavy rain into the region, along with gusty winds.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely across the eastern half of the state, with locally higher amounts. High water issues are possible.
  • Winds may gust to 40mph at times Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across the central and east.

I will have the very latest forecast on WKYT-TV starting at 11pm and have another KWC update for you later tonight.

Isolated storms are going up through the evening, I close things out with regional radar for your tracking needs…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:25 am

Florence To Impact Kentucky

Good Thursday, folks.  Hurricane Florence is nearing the North Carolina coast today and is ready to deliver a devastating blow to North and South Carolina. This system is going to then slowly work our way, likely impacting our weather later Sunday into Monday. This should be a wind and rain maker for us.

Let’s get you caught up on the current status of this storm…

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This is storm that may make a rare double landfall near Wilmington, NC then again in South Carolina. This slow movement means catastrophic damage in those areas. Here is your interactive radar, complete with live storm tracker feeds from the areas getting hit…

After meandering around the Carolinas for the next few days, the remnants of Florence will lift to the northwest toward Kentucky. What’s left of this system will likely move from south to north across the state from late Sunday through Tuesday. The latest hurricane model forecasts continue to be locked in on this track…

The GFS Ensembles are very similar…

The operational GFS continues to bring the center right on top of the state…

Tropical rain producing showers and thunderstorms will work across the state Sunday and Monday, bringing locally heavy rains. The greatest threat is across central and eastern Kentucky. This doesn’t look like the rainmaker Gordon was because the setup is totally different and this thing is moving along.

This system will bring gusty winds our way, with the potential of 30-40mph gusts at times.

Ahead of all this, warm and humid air will spawn a few storms Friday into Saturday. A few tropical downpours will have to be watched.

Let’s get back to today… Isolated showers and storms are possible and I have you set to do some tracking…

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:26 pm

Updating The Florence Forecast

Good evening, folks. Hurricane Florence has weakened some today, but is still a major hurricane on a collision course with the Carolinas. The storm will likely have a direct impact on our weather late this weekend into early next week.

This storm has a chance at a double landfall… One south of Wilmington, NC, with the other in South Carolina. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast reflects this possibility…

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The various hurricane models are in very good agreement with the forecast track of the storm into the Carolinas and then all the way into Kentucky by early next week…

The various members of the GFS Ensembles share a similar line of thinking…

The latest GFS is very similar to the tracks shown above, bringing rain and wind into Kentucky Sunday and Monday…

That clearly brings the remnant low right on top of the state.

The European Model has corrected itself from last night’s extreme solution that took this system south of Savannah. The model now shows the double landfall scenario. Here’s the North Carolina hit…

Followed by the South Carolina hit…

From there, the Euro takes this system across central and eastern Kentucky…

 

Some thoughts on how all this may play out:

  • Scattered showers and storms will go up over the next few days, with an increase Friday and Saturday. Tropical downpours will be possible.
  •  The remnants of Florence begin throwing clouds our way by late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • The first rains from this storm should arrive late Sunday and continue through Monday. Showers and storms will be common across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rainfall may cause a few issues.
  • Unlike Gordon, this will likely produce gusty winds across our part of the world.
  • None of this is set in stone. 🙂

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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