Spring and Winter Battle For The Week

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re ready to put the wraps on a gorgeous spring weekend here in the bluegrass state. Enjoy the calm, because the pattern is getting ready to crank it up a notch in the week ahead. Spring and Winter are getting ready to slug it out!

Highs today will be cooler than what we had on Saturday. Highs across the north may only reach the mid and upper 50s with the south and west 60-65 degrees.

A backdoor cold front as put the breaks on across the region and will slowly lift back to the north over the next few days. That means some pretty big temperature gradients are likely to set up in our region…

Euro

A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible along and just to the north of that warm front. That’s on the leading edge of a shot of pretty toasty air surging in on Wednesday. Many areas should hit 70 on a gusty southwesterly wind. That’s all ahead of a very strong cold front moving in on Thursday with a line of showers and thunderstorms…

GFS

Our front is being pushed by a blast of very cold temperatures moving in for the end of the week into the weekend. Many of the models continue to suggest the potential for some snowflakes by Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

A recent run of the Canadian Model went crazy with the snow chances…

Canadian

That’s way to the extreme side of things… I think. :) Regardless… we have a decent shot at seeing some snowflakes late next week and perhaps again the week after.

It’s a nice battle between Spring and Winter taking shape over the next few weeks and that means a very active pattern. It’s a pattern that should lead us into a late arriving, but rather robust, severe weather season around here.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Big Changes Next Week

Good Saturday, everyone. We have gorgeous weather rolling in for the first weekend of Spring. Temps are set to take off as some sunshine returns for the next couple of days. While that’s great news and all, the longer range continues to look flat out ugly for the closing days of March and the early days of April.

Skies become partly sunny as the day wears on and that allows for temps to warm well into the 60s. Sunday won’t be as nice, but will still be pretty darn good. Highs in the south and west will be back into the 60s with some 50s creeping back into the north.

Those 50s look take over on Monday as a backdoor front slides in. That front will lift back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday and could produce a shower or thunderstorm as it introduces much milder air for Wednesday. Highs may spike toward 70 on a gusty southwesterly wind.

This is when the changes really show up. A powerful cold front will drop into the state with an increase in showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. That front still has a wintry look behind it…

GFSThe GFS follows that up with another big dip in the jet stream…

GFS 2The European Ensembles for that same time looks like something out of the heart of winter…

Euro 2You likely have not seen your last snowflakes. Ugh!

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Up and Down Pattern Continues

Good Friday to one and all. March is famous for the up and down temperature pattern and that pattern is really kicking it up a notch in the days ahead. It’s never an easy path to Spring here in Kentucky, and this setup means we have a lot of time to go before we can proclaim true springtime.

A few showers will linger through our Friday morning with some late day clearing possible. Areas that see the skies clean up will see readings surging well into the 50s.

If you’re looking for a winner of a weather day, Saturday looks to play the part with sunshine and mild air. The mild will get split a bit on Sunday as a backdoor cold front drops into town…

Euro

Monday will see a similar temperature setup to what we see on Sunday with areas north and east seeing colder numbers.

A powerhouse of a cold front will then dive in here by late Wednesday and Thursday with a line of showers and thunderstorms possible…

Euro 3

Temps ahead of that front should hit the 70s…

Euro 2

That’s the “Up” part of the week. The “Down” part comes in behind the front for the end of the week as much colder air returns. Some of the models are even showing the possibility of a winter look. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

I will take a big helping of NO with that! :)

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Chilly Showers Invade

Good Thursday. Those nasty chilly showers will be with us through the day today. It’s days like these that I’d rather it snow and stick than deal with the chilly rain. These chances will remain in the area through Friday.

At no point today do I expect the showers to completely cover the commonwealth like last week. These will feature a few breaks in between some of the rounds of rain.

Rainfall

The GFS & EURO have a very similar look over the next couple of days. Both will push the rain out of here by Friday night.

Capture

Highs will recover briefly on Saturday. It’s the only taste of Spring I see in the near future. Unfortunately, it will not last long at all. Another cool shot will arrive Sunday.

As always here are your tracking tools.

Stay dry and Take Care

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Showers Set To Increase

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another period of showery weather is getting set to roll across the bluegrass state over the next couple of days. The frequent bouts of precipitation have been common over the past few months and that’s a trend that continues for the foreseeable future. What about the non-foreseeable future? I have some thoughts on that as well.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

Highs will range from the mid to upper 40s for many with some clouds on the increase. Low 50s may show up in the west and south.

The clouds will eventually spit out rounds of showers starting late tonight and running through Friday. The latest trend has been for less in the way of rainfall…

GFS Rain

Still… the next few days won’t be very nice with chilly temps continuing. It may be JUST cold enough for a few Thursday morning snowflakes to mix in for a few areas…

GFS Snow

That is not a big deal at all. Any flakes that fall will quickly give way to plain old chilly showers.

The weekend weather continues to look pretty darn good. Saturday should see some sunshine returning as thermometers make a run toward the 60s. Sunday will see a cold front trying to shoot in here, but the timing of that may get pushed back a day or two into early next week.

I continue to see a pattern full of big temperature swings that skew a littler colder than normal overall during the next few weeks. Speaking of skewing colder than normal, the CFS has a very ugly look for April…

CFS

That’s a lot of cold air showing up across much of the country and we can only hope it’s dead wrong! We can also say the same about the precipitation forecast for the month…

CFS 2Looking even farther down the road… my thoughts have changed some on where the summer pattern goes. You’ve heard the old saying “the more things change, the more they stay the same”. Well, I think that’s very appropriate with our weather pattern. The Pacific Ocean temperature profile hasn’t changed very much since the fall of 2013 and it doesn’t look to change much this year. Most of the seasonal models keep that similar setup going all the way through the start of next winter. Interesting.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. A weak cold front continues to drop through the region today and is knocking temps down some from the May temps we had on Monday. The next front looks even stronger and will have more moisture and cold to work with by Thursday.

Rain will increase from west to east Wednesday night and could begin as a period of some snowflakes or a mix of rain and flakes. The GFS continues to highlight a small window of opportunity Thursday morning..

GFS Snow

Again, that would be a brief taste of flake action before rain takes over. Locally heavy downpours will carry us through Friday…

GFSSaturday’s weather looks pretty good before another cold front slides in later Sunday. That has a nice blast of chill coming in behind it and we will have to watch for low pressure to develop to our south. The models are hinting at something like that by Monday and Tuesday…

GFS

Have a Happy Saint Patrick’s Day and take care.

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Cooler temps with some flakes

Good Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will set the stage for midweek. It’s coming our way today.

It isn’t a moisture rich system, but it is a system that will likely bring a passing shower or two. Mainly clouds with a small chance of rain. This is when the scales tip a little and allow for some cooler air to slip back in for the middle and end of the week.

Rain

Pay no attention to the way the precip is drawn on the map. I don’t ever think that coverage will look that aggressive, I caught that snapshot in the middle of a transition.

We are missing the true big dip with temperatures this week. I still anticipate the run below average for the end of the week.

Weds

The next slug of moisture will arrive on Thursday morning. As I have mentioned… there might be just enough cold air hanging around to trigger a few flakes.


GFS ThuThat’s just a quick grab of the GFS. The snow line could be around for a few hours. Clearly, it isn’t an impressive chance.

GFS Snow

The GFS is the lone wolf picking up on snow Thursday morning. Given the conditions, this doesn’t look to be that impressive at all. It’s just part of the ride!

Multiple shots of colder air will again work into the area over the next few weeks. When I said we haven’t seen our last flakes. I don’t think this little wintry shot is the last one either.

One last thing… will the real Chris Bailey please stand up? ;)

Take Care

 

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Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, peeps. How great is the weather out there today? Readings are well into the 70s and that should help start the greening of the bluegrass state. That’s a good thing, but there’s also a bad thing lurking… more rain and chilly shots of temps.

Temps come down over the next couple of days as a cold front sweeps in on Tuesday. That may spark a shower or two, but nothing major. The next system has a little more juice with it and should produce much more in the way of rain. Some of that from Thursday into Friday could be on the heavy side in the south…

GFS

The GFS keeps showing the possibility for some flakes mixing in with that mess…

GFS Snow

No… Just no!

A bigger push of chill comes late this weekend and early next week. That sets the stage for a lot of back and forth temperatures over the next few weeks. That’s a pattern that should produce ample rainfall across our region. The GFS is ugly with the 2 week rainfall numbers…

GFS RainAgain, no… just no.

My time away from my tv job continues for a few more days. In the meantime I will keep throwing you guys for a loop by continuing to post from different devices (even my phone) that change my style a little bit. Gotta keep you on your toes. ;)

Take care

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The 70s Start The Week

Good Monday to one and all. If you’re a fan of springtime temps, you are loving the weather life we have for you out there today. Temps will surge into the 70s with skies remaining partly sunny. Not to spoil the spring party, but surges of below normal temps are set to return. Yippee!

Winds will be rather gusty out there today as some clouds increase later in the day. The big news will be the warmest numbers many of us have had since October… the 70s.

A cold front will slip through the region on Tuesday and could spawn isolated showers or sprinkles. Temps will start in the upper 50s and then drop into the upper 40s by the end of the day.

Wednesday is windy and chilly with temps in the high 40s for many.

A stronger cold front will then dive in here on Thursday as a wave of low pressure develops along it just to our south. That should mean a nice surge of chilly showers…

GFS

That’s a little ugly and the GFS has it just ugly enough to create some… wait for it… wait for it… snowflakes! Check it out…

GFS Snow

I’m not sold on that idea, but it does have some merit. Either way, it’s part of the overall chillier theme the long range models have been hinting at for a long time.

After a spike in temps to start the weekend, another round of rain will likely introduce a colder shot of air later this weekend or early next week. The GFS is showing much of the eastern half of the country solidly below normal…

GFS 2The overall setup still looks skewed colder than normal through early April. That doesn’t mean we can’t have some milder days thrown into the mix, but colder than normal should outdo the milder spells.

It’s also a setup that should deliver a lot more precipitation. Most areas are already experiencing on of the wettest Marches on record and we will only climb even higher on the top ten wettest lists. Muddy times continue!

As I said, enjoy the 70s and dry of today. Make it a great one and take care.

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Some Much Needed Drying Out

Good Sunday, here we are less than a week away from leaving Winter 2014-15 behind in the dust. You won’t even think about that at all during the first part of this week. Your mind will begin to fill with Spring thoughts… until Wednesday. What would March be without a little ride on a temperature rollercoaster. I mean, we have already been on some pretty crazy trips from the beginning of the month. So any ride now would also seem lackluster. But a ride is a ride!

What I am more interested in isn’t the big push of warmth… it’s the cool that battles back into Kentucky.

Backdoor cool

Cold for us isn’t impressive here. It won’t be at all during the new week. It’s just the chilly air that likely takes over the region right as we officially hit Spring on Friday evening. We are entering a time of year when we find the classic “Clashing of the Airmasses” There is still enough cold close to push deep into the lower 48 and shake things up considerably. Sadly, this isn’t the last or worst blast of cold air that I see this month. It could get even worse during the last 7-10 days in the month. During that time we could see multiple blasts of cooler air. This is something I have been noticing for a long time. Again… nothing unusual to see cool air that late in March or even into April. These shots could be pretty deep!

There I go talking about all of the cool conditions and I forgot to talk about the rain chances for next week. See how the cold gets my blood flowing. ;)

Thu

 

Now… keep in mind that the GFS is just now bringing any rain to our area for Thursday while the European has been picking up on that moisture for the past several runs. This begins our next rainy period for early Thursday morning and into Friday. Give the GFS a little more time and it will bring even more moisture into Kentucky. We all know it takes a little while to get on the right path. These will be some pretty chilly showers for all of us! Resolution of the models isn’t of concern here. It’s the fact that the GFS is just beginning to push moisture into Kentucky.

And just for fun… a look at the 850 temps for next weekend. One of s few cool shots  see taking shape for the end of the month. This cold shot lingers for a few days too.

Screen Shot 2015-03-15 at 3.51.31 AMThis pattern is still locked and loaded to bring even more cold down on us! Remember… this shot happens right after Spring begins ;) Time will tell!

Enjoy the sunshine on this Sunday.

Take Care

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