Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It continues to be all eyes on a developing storm system across the deep south. This storm dumped more snow in Amarillo, Texas in a few hours than what New York City and Boston have had the entire winter. Think about that one for a minute.

This same system will work across the deep south and then up the east coast by Saturday. That will impact our weather with rain and a mix developing from southwest to northeast on Friday. As the air cools, a period of wet snow will develop Friday evening into Saturday morning.

I have no changes on the areas with the best chance of seeing some sticking snow…

Special 2

With temps close to 32 degrees, we would need some heavier bursts of precipitation to develop if we want some snow on the ground. The GFS develops one of those bands right on top of central Kentucky…

GFS Snow

That also shows the super duper sharp cutoff with this system on the western side.

I will try to get a first call map out later today, but the banding features will make it hard to pinpoint exact amounts. I’ve seen a lot of folks throwing out numbers on my twitter feed over the past few days. Too many variables for me to be doing that. Regardless, I will get the blame for those forecasts, anyway. ;)

Enjoy the afternoon and take care.

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The Latest Snow Odds

Good Thursday, everyone. A developing storm system will impact Kentucky over the next few days. The extent of that impact is still a bit uncertain, but the overnight models did push the deepest moisture a little farther to the east.

Here’s a look at who has the best shot at picking up some sticking snow from this…

Special 2

That isn’t too different from what I was showing yesterday. The question I will have to tackle today is… how much snow falls? As of this writing… I do not see this becoming a significant snow maker across our region.

Here’s a brief breakdown…

- Light rain and a light mix will develop from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon. As the precipitation moves in the temps will drop.

- It gets cold enough from Friday evening through Saturday morning for a band of snow to develop. The “best chance” area obviously has the greatest chance of seeing that.

- A sharp cutoff is likely to be noted on the north and western sides of the precipitation shield.

- Odds favor this being a light snowfall across our region, but that could change depending on the exact track of the low.

- The snow will quickly taper off from west to east Saturday morning.

From this point, we focus on a clipper diving in from the northwest late Sunday into Monday…

GFS

Temps ahead of that will spike a bit on Sunday and then crash Sunday night as light snow tries to fly across the area. Another clipper will follow that up a few days later.

While the snow chances remain somewhat of a mystery with this pattern… the same can’t be said about the potentially for arctic cold. Nothing has changed with this situation as we end January and say hello to February…

GFS 2

If you’re like me, you have ZERO use for bitterly cold temps if snow isn’t involved. If it does indeed get that cold… let’s hope it’s not with a bare ground like we had a few weeks ago. That’s just miserable.

I will have updates later today. Take care.

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Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, friends. I have no changes to my earlier thoughts on where we stand with respect to the snow potential for late Friday into early Saturday. The map I made earlier still stands…

Special 2How much can we get out of this kind of setup? I’m not ready to even speculate on that at this point because of the variables involved.

The latest from the WPC continues to place eastern Kentucky in the 4″ snow risk for Friday night and early Saturday…

HPC

I will have a full update later tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Update On The Late Week Snow Potential

Good afternoon, all. I don’t have a lot of time to give you a full blown update, so let’s get to what we can get to. The developing storm system for Friday and Saturday will impact our weather. To what extent depends on the track of the low and exactly where you live in Kentucky.

Temps for this event are marginal, but it’s a wet snow signal showing up late Friday into Saturday morning. Given what I’m seeing right now, here’s a look at the areas who have the best chance of seeing some sticking snow…

Special 2

There are a lot of variables to work through before we can determine how much sticking snow we receive. Could be just a little or could be several inches. The later is where the NAM is…

NAM

The folks at the WPC have placed much of eastern and southern Kentucky in a slight risk for a 4″+ snowfall by early Saturday…

HPC

Anytime I post maps, many people have the tendency to just look at the model maps and not read what I’m really saying about them. Please read. :)

I will have a much more in depth look at this potential on WKYT-TV starting at 4 and another update here later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking The Late Week Storm Potential

Good Wednesday, everyone. After a heck of a run of a whole lot of nothing to talk about… it looks like we are flipping the page in a big way. A developing winter storm across Texas will track across the south and then turn the corner up the east coast this weekend. The track of that low could put Kentucky in the line of fire for accumulating snow.

COULD is the key word in this because it’s all about the track of the low. We are now inside 2 days away from this system possibly impacting our weather, so this isn’t like we’re tracking something that’s a week away. The closer we get to this potential… the greater the risk showing up on the models.

Let’s start with the GFS. Here’s how that model tracks the storm Friday into Saturday…

GFS

That’s primarily a wet snow maker showing up on that model run. Here’s the snowfall forecast from the GFS…

GFS Snow

The NAM is very similar to what the GFS is showing with the overall track and intensity of the storm, but has more moisture to work with…

NAM

With more moisture, you would expect the model to have a healthier snowfall forecast. Sure enough…

NAM 2

These models aren’t alone in showing some kind of snowy hit across the bluegrass state. The Canadian Model was the last holdout, but decided to jump in last night. The European Model was the first to catch on to the farther north and west track and it continues to show the same.

Euro

I want to stress… all of the above maps are from computer models that change from run to run. Those ARE NOT maps I made as a forecast! That said… if I continue to see similar trends, a Winter Storm Threat could be in the making later today.

The late weekend system still looks on track to dive in here, but I’m all in on focusing on the first potential for Friday and Saturday.

I will have updates as needed today, so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Winter Showing Signs Of Life

Good afternoon, gang. Old Man Winter is showing some serious signs of life  as we track a couple of systems later this week into the coming weekend.

Let’s start with a storm system developing across Texas. This bad boy has been well telegraphed for more than a week, but the track on it has varied. Many of the models over the past several days have been showing this storm tracking well to our south and east. That is now changing.

Let’s review the track of this storm on some of the latest model runs. The GFS snow brings a lot of precipitation into our region…

GFS

Much of that would fall as wet snow Friday into the first half of Saturday. The NAM only goes out through Friday evening, but has a similar overall look…

NAM

The European Model started the trend of bringing this system farther north and west, but the latest run is just a tad east…

Euro

That’s still a good hit of wet snow for parts of our region as the storm wraps up along the east coast.

A few trends are becoming apparent… 1. This looks like a stronger storm 2. Because of that, it takes a farther north and west track and impacts Kentucky. Again, that’s the current “snapshot” of how things are looking. Stay tuned.

The system that follows that up late in the weekend is also showing up stronger with more of an impact on our weather. We have a hefty upper level system diving into the eastern trough as a BIG ridge develops along the west coast…

GFS 2

On face value… that’s a nice setup for snow across our part of the world. As you know, I’ve been focusing more on the upper levels with this weekend, but the lower levels are now catching on. Here’s the European Model…

Euro 2

The GFS isn’t too far behind…

GFS 3

IF the upper level forecasts are right… IF… then the surface system may continue to trend deeper in the coming days. I suspect a lot of that may be determined by what happens with our Friday/Saturday storm across the east.

At least we are getting something to talk about now. :)

For all you weather history buffs… does today’s date ring a cold bell? On this date in 1985 we had one of the coldest days on record in Kentucky. Lows were close to -20 in many areas and some would duplicate that again the following morning. Quite the difference out there some 30 years later.

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.

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The Wait Continues

Good Tuesday, folks. As we continue to wait on the return of Old Man Winter, we get one more day of nice weather to enjoy. That means my 4 day weekend comes to an end with a perfect batting average. Now, If I could only get the forecasts to hit in that range. ;)

Temps today will be back to around the 50 degree mark in the north and east with milder stuff west and south. Winds will be very gusty ahead of a cold front sweeping in by tonight. That front looks to have rather wimpy moisture with it, but could spit out a few showers…

We’ve harped a lot on the temp forecasts being off from the models and for good reason. Something else I’m noticing is the models constantly overplaying precipitation amounts. Doesn’t matter if it’s rain or snow, the results of late aren’t even close to what the data points to.

Regardless of that… this has been a dry winter for many. I know we all get caught up in wondering where the snow is… but it’s hard to produce snow without precipitation.

Back to the weather ahead of us. Some very light snow showers or flurries will be possible behind this front over the next few days. Possible is the key word.

A storm system will develop across Texas and then roll eastward along the Gulf Coast and up the east coast later this week. The European Model continues to be the most developed and farther north and west with the track of the storm…

EuroAs you can see, the latest run brings precipitation into much of the state. We shall see how that system evolves on the models in the coming days.

A big ridge develops across the west coast this weekend and allows for a strong disturbance to drop into our region from the northwest…

GFS 2

That’s a pretty strong system digging in and is a setup that usually develops a healthy storm system across our part of the world. I’m really trying to JUST look at the upper levels instead of focusing on the lowest levels where the models are really struggling, right now.

I will update things later today. For now, it’s back to enjoying my final day of my extended weekend. :)

Take care.

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Monday Evening Update

Good afternoon, gang. You know your friendly weatherdude loves his wintertime… But, I could get used to this. I’m on day 3 of a 4 day weekend and my weather timing could not have been better. Gorgeous skies and pleasant temps have given me the chance to get back into my outdoor running mode! I like it (Don’t judge me :))

As far as the future weather goes… winter is ready to fight back in over the next few days. We get a cold front in here later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Some rain showers will be ahead of it with the potential for a few snow showers or flurries behind it.

The southern storm that follows that up still looks like it stays away from us, but the European Model now has it grazing southeastern Kentucky…

Euro 2

As always… we shall see.

The better shot at some snow comes later this weekend as a system dives in from the northwest. Watch how this thing digs in as a big ridge jumps out west…

EuroThat’s a setup upstairs that can lead to a fairly potent system trying to develop. As I started earlier, the seasonal trend suggests a hearty helping of “wait and see”.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

26 Comments

Will Clippers Break The Snow Drought?

Good Monday, everyone. It’s now secret that we are in a snow drought across the bluegrass state. To illustrate the point… I haven’t made a “Call For Snowfall” map since back in November. We have two weeks left in January to try and make up for lost time. Can we do that? A series of clippers look to be our main hope in the short term.

Let’s start with what’s going on today before we get to the clipper potential.

It’s another snowless day in our region with mostly sunny skies and temps hitting the upper 40s and low 50s. This is making for great weather for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

Tuesday will find similar temps across the region with clouds on the increase. Those clouds are developing ahead of a cold front that swings in here Tuesday night into early Wednesday. That may try to pop a wave of low pressure along it just to our east. Colder air comes in behind this system with the potential for some light snow or flurries.

A southern system will then develop and likely miss us to the south and southeast by Thursday and Friday.

The most interesting setup for the next week comes later this weekend when a ridge pops up the west coast, allowing for a strong disturbance to drop in from the northwest…

GFS

That’s a good looking setup for a stout system to develop, but the trend of this winter says to not get excited until… well… you get the idea. ;)

The overall idea of a very cold pattern developing is a good one. Check it out…

CIPSThat’s from the CIPS Twitter feed and underscores the idea of a very cold period returning. What is CIPS?

The CIPS Analog Guidance is an impact-based weather resource that objectively finds similar historical events to the upcoming numerical model forecast.

I will get back to regular updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Cold Fronts Take Center Stage

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a cold front pushing across the state today and this will lead the charge on a series of fronts this week. Each of these fronts will usher in colder air than the one before it. Eventually, arctic air will begin to surge in behind these fronts as the month wears on.

Today’s front passes through pretty early this morning with a band of rain and snow showers behind it. The air coming in behind this isn’t super cold with the east in the upper 30s to low 40s. The west will see a quicker return to sunshine and thus some milder air.

Monday’s weather looks pretty good with some sunshine and pleasant temps. Winds will gust up as another system approaches from the northwest. The Canadian Model is developing a nice wave of low pressure along this boundary…

CanadianThe Canadian then tries to bring back the big storm system rolling across the south and then near the east coast…

Canadian 2

We will see how that looks in the days to come. The European looks similar with that system, but follows it up with this…

Euro

The longer range continues to look cold with arctic air rolling back into the country. That trend starts later next week then kicks into high gear thereafter. Check out the crazy blocking showing up on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 4

Yowza!

I will have updates later today. Take care.

38 Comments