Time posted: 7:49 pm

Looking Ahead To A Very Active Setup

Good evening, everyone. Our gloomy weather rolls on as a few light showers and drizzle roll across the state ahead of a Tuesday clipper. As we’ve been talking about for a while now, this is kicking off a super active weather pattern that will throw a lot of different systems our way between now and Thanksgiving.

I have no changes with the clipper coming for Tuesday, so there’s no need to rehash this.

The end of the week/weekend system continues to show up very well on all the models, but those models are exhibiting their normal biases. The Euro is usually too wound up and too far north/west with such systems and that looks to be the case with the low coming Friday night and Saturday…

That run does spit out some hefty rain totals around here…

On the flip side, the GFS is too flat and too progressive with our system…

So the European has the low going into Ohio and the GFS has the low going through South Carolina. If they meet in the middle, we are probably dealing with reality. That’s similar to what the average of the GFS Ensembles are showing…

This continues to look like a lot of rain from late Thursday through Friday, with the potential for some winter weather to show up at some point Saturday, depending on the track of the low.

This is part of the action packed pattern and the European Model shows what I’m talking about. Watch the above system and the one coming Thanksgiving week…

Once again, we are likely seeing the Euro too far west and north with this storm, but it’s a doozy…

If we look at the European Ensembles from next week through early December, focus on the block around Greenland and northeastern Canada. Watch how stable it is and how it forces lower heights from Alaska down into the US…

I told ya there’s a lot going on! Shew. Hows that for an evening update? Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Midday Monday Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gloomy start to the week as we track a couple systems dropping in from the northwest. It’s the late week and weekend setup that will easily be the bigger deal. It will be our first ‘depends on the track of the low’ setup. Once into Thanksgiving week, the cold pushes back and may do so with a big storm system.

Today’s weather isn’t all bad as skies do try to break just a bit. Temps are kinda all over the place for, but generally a little below normal for afternoon highs. There’s still a small shower risk…

The clipper looking system diving in on Tuesday is finally showing up on the American Models, even though they’ve been on all the other models for days now. Here’s the Hi Res NAM…

A nice temp rebound then takes place Wednesday into Thursday before our next system rolls in here. This will bring gusty winds and an increase in showers on Thursday and Thursday night. That’s the first part of what may be a three part storm system. Another wave of rain should move in on Friday, with the bigger and slower system moving in Saturday. That one is all about the track of the low as being the determining factor in what kind of precipitation we get around here.

The GFS continues to struggle and is way too progressive. This was a bias of the old version of the GFS and the brand new version looks to have an even bigger bias with this. Still, the model is starting to see the evolution…

The Canadian continues to see this much better and shows the winter weather potential…

The GFS is also picking up on the pre-Thanksgiving storm that may impact travel…

I will update things later today and on WKYT starting at 4pm. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:59 am

Mid-November Pattern Gets Active

Good Monday, everybody. We are kicking off a new work week on a rather gloomy note with a couple of systems dropping in from the northwest. These are pretty tame in the overall scheme of things, but the action picks up later this week into the weekend. It’s a setup that could carry us right on through the rest of the month as we grow colder once again.

Our weak systems are bringing lots of clouds today, but just a few chilly showers. There will be quite the temp spread showing up. Can I rule out a small mix at some point through tonight? I can’t, but it’s not a likelihood. Here are your Monday tracking toys…

The Tuesday systems are a little more robust and have a slightly better chance for a flake mixing in. The Euro shows two disturbances working in…

Temps rebound very quickly on Wednesday and we may actually have a shot at 60. That carries over into Thursday as we get ready for a stronger front to arrive by Thursday night and Friday. That system is looking weaker because the one coming behind it looks stronger for the weekend. The track of the low will determine what kind of weather we get. The models go back and forth with winter weather or just plain rain for us.

The Euro went from winter weather to wet weather…

The Canadian is also wet, but close to wintry…

The ICON went from wet to wintry…

With so many different pieces of energy showing up, you will continue to see the models go back and forth with those systems.

The pattern is likely to produce another big storm system just in time for the Thanksgiving travel period.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, make it a great day and take care.

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