A Wintry Halloween Possible

Good Tuesday afternoon, gang. It continues to look more and more like a blast of winter weather comes screaming into town just in time for Halloween. The models are doing what we said would happen several days ago… trend back to what they were showing from a week away.

The GFS now matches the European Model in showing the potent upper level system diving right on top of us Friday and Saturday…

GFSIf the models are accurate with the intensity and track of that system… it could be pretty wild around here. That would create a tremendous amount of wind and crashing temperatures to go along with rain and some snow. I’ve even seen similar situations produce thunder and lightning.

The GFS shows no shortage of precipitation across the region…

GFS 2IF things work out like that run suggests… rain would mix with and change to snow in many areas Friday evening into Saturday morning. The models continue to target the mountains of southeastern Kentucky with the best chance at seeing flakes and some accumulations…

GFS 3None of this is set in stone by any means, but my confidence in a taste of winter is increasing. Odds favor the first flakes of the season, at least, falling in our region Friday night and Saturday morning. Can it turn into something a little more? That’s possible and something for us to continue to track in the coming days.

I will get another update out later today and be back on WKYT-TV starting at 4.

Take care.

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Tracking The Halloween Flake Potential

Good Tuesday, everyone. Big time weather changes are blowing into the bluegrass state as a strong cold front pushes in. Today’s front will bring showers and storms and much cooler air. The big daddy arrives on Halloween and may bring the first taste of winter to parts of the bluegrass state. Yep… I said winter!

First things first and that’s the front on top of us today. A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward through the afternoon and evening. Winds are going to howl and some strong wind gusts will be possible with the line of storms. There is even a small risk for a few strong storms and that’s something I will keep a close eye on.

Track today’s action…

Chillier air comes in behind this front for Wednesday and Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s. Lows by Thursday morning hit the 30s.

That brings us to Halloween and the possibility of some snow and very cold air. As expected, the models are going back toward the deeper solution they were originally showing several days ago. The European Model is now fully phasing two disturbances right on top of our region by Halloween night…

Euro 2

That forms one potent upper level system that would lead to very cold weather with snows flying across central and eastern Kentucky…

Euro That’s a pretty wild setup to see and the European Model does put down some accumulation…

Euro 3That is not my forecast, but is what this run of the European Model is showing. That would likely be the extreme case scenario.

The GFS is not as strong with the upper level system, but is strongly trending in that direction…

GFS 2

Based on that path, the GFS swipes the region with some rain and snow showers…

GFS

The cold air behind this system is impressive. Temps will drop 10-20 degrees in just a few hours as the front passes. Most areas will drop into the 30s during Halloween evening then settle into the 20s by Saturday morning…

GFS 4The core of the cold continues to shift a little farther west with each model run. You think those numbers are cold? How about wind chill numbers in the teens to start Saturday…

GFS 5

That’s a heck of a way to say hello to November! Brrrrrrr!

The cold hangs tough into Sunday morning with readings back into the 20s…

GFS 3I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening, all. While we put the wraps on a summer-like weather day in the bluegrass state, I’m tracking the potential for a taste of winter for Halloween weekend.

The latest model runs continue the trend of being a little farther west with the heart of the cold shot. That arrives Halloween afternoon and evening with a major drop in temperatures in just a few hours. That front may also touch off some rain or snow showers. The GFS continues to get a little more aggressive with each run…

Halloween Evening

GFSHalloween Night

GFS 2  You can see how the model tries to put some snow down across the Appalachian Mountains into Saturday…

GFS 3

The European Model shows a similar setup… Euro

Winds will be super gusty from the north and northwest into Saturday. Take a look at the cold flow on the European…

Euro 2

That type of flow might be able to tap a little bit of lake moisture into Saturday morning. The mountains of eastern Kentucky would have the best chance to see the first flakes with that type of flow. Lows by Saturday morning should be deep into the 20s as the core of the cold is centered right on top of us…

GFS 5A full update comes your way later tonight. Take care.

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Flakes For Halloween?

Good Monday afternoon. Halloween weekend continues to look COLD, but what about the potential for the first flakes of the season? That’s certainly a possibility for some folks.

Chance

Halloween will be a very interesting day. A VERY strong cold front arrives during the afternoon with winds that may reach 30mph at times. Temps ahead of that front may spike to 50 before dropping 10-15 degrees in less than an hour after it passes through.

The GFS is now getting back to showing more of a storm system developing along this front. Remember me talking about the models losing their way in the 4-7 day time period? That’s certainly the case with the GFS as it’s now getting back to showing what it was showing a few days ago…

GFSThat would bring some rain or snow showers into central and eastern Kentucky Halloween evening into the overnight. Again… the flakes part of that scenario isn’t a certainty by any means. The cold? Yea… that’s a given at this point. Look at the cold diving in for the start of trick or treat…

GFS 2

Saturday morning is likely to start with temps deep into the 20s…

GFS 3 Sunday morning looks very cold, too…

GFS 4 I will have another update coming your way later this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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A Wild Temperature Ride

Good Monday, weather weenies. It’s time to buckle your seatbelt because we are about to take a wild ride on the temperature express. It isn’t often when we see highs near 80 and lows in the 20s just days apart, but that’s the case as we get ready to close out October.

Late summer temps will be with us today with mid and upper 70s in the east with low 80s in the west. A few spots out west could flirt with 85 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind. That same wind is blowing ahead of a cold front that swings into town late Tuesday. That brings a line of showers and thunderstorms with it from west to east…

NAM

Much colder air then works in behind that front with highs mainly in the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Lows by Thursday morning are back in the 30s…

NAM 2

This takes us into Halloween and the arrival of a much colder air mass. This will easily be the coldest we’ve had since early spring. Check out the progression of the colder than normal temps from Wednesday through Saturday…

GFS

That’s a nice blast of cold that pushes in from late Friday into Saturday. Readings by Saturday morning should hit the 20s in many areas…

GFS 2What about precipitation? This is the part I won’t have a firm grip on for another day or two. The GFS continues to brush the region with some rain or snow showers action Halloween evening…

GFS 3While much of that should stay to our northeast, it wouldn’t take much change to put our region back in play. As it stands now for trick or treating… it looks windy with temps in the upper 30s to low 40s and a small chance of precipitation.

As I look farther down the road, this is a very energetic pattern that should feature a lot of back and forth with temperatures into mid November. It is this type of pattern that can lead to some healthy storm systems that can take on various forms across the country. Several of the years I’m looking at featured severe storms in November around here.

Check back later for another update on the Halloween Weekend cold blast.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our weekend is wrapping up on a warm note and that’s exactly how the work week looks to begin. It will end on a much different note as cold air pours in on Halloween. We do get a couple of systems sandwiched in between.

Halloween weekend continues to get all the weather attention, as it should. The cold shot arrives Friday afternoon and evening just as the kiddos are making their candy rounds…

GFS Winds will gust up and temps drop quickly into the 30s from north to south. As I mentioned earlier, I still don’t think the models will fully grasp the setup for a few more days. There’s likely to be a storm system blowing up along and east of that front.

Still, It turns cold Friday night will lows hitting the 20s…

GFS 2A full update on the weekend and beyond comes your way later tonight. Be there or be square.

Take care.

 

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Enjoy The Mild While We Have It

Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend weather continues to be nothing short of awesome and that’s made your friendly weatherdude popular of late. (First time for everything! :)) We have a couple more days of the nice stuff before we see things take a turn toward the chilly and then flat out cold.

Highs today will range from the mid and upper 60s in the north and east to the 70s in the west. Those 70s will take control of the state on Monday on a strong southwesterly wind. That wind will eventually blow in a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. That’s when a strong cold front swings in from the west…

Euro 2 Winds will be very gusty as this font passes through and colder air follows that up for Wednesday. Highs in the 50s look good for many.

The Halloween weekend cold blast is still on schedule. Can this bring the first flakes of the season our way? That remains a possibility, but I won’t be able to say with any certainty for a few more days. Let me remind you how computer models tend to react with winter type systems. They will often latch on to something in the 7-10 period, then lose it a bit in the 4-7 day window, then find it again within 3 or 4 days.

The European Model continues to be the strongest of the models with the cold and potential wintry weather in the eastern part of the country…

EuroThe latest run from the GFS is a bit farther north and east with that system, but it still brings the cold…

GFS 2

As I said, we are in that 4-7 day window of model changes, so we need to let the dust settle before settling in on any one solution.

I will update things this evening so check back.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Tracking Halloween Week Changes

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend of weather continues to look like the winner of the month of October. Mild temps and gusty winds will dominate the pattern for the next few days. That all changes next week as blasts of chilly air take aim at our region. There’s even the potential for an out and out very cold shot by Halloween weekend. Maybe some winter weather?

Oh yea… I will also have some longer range goodies for ya.

Let’s start with where we are now. Highs today should range from the upper 60s to low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be very gusty as a weak cold front works in. Can that front touch off a shower? The chances are very, very small, but it’s worth a mention.

Current temperatures

Sunday looks like another fantastic fall day as temps come down just a bit for some areas.

The final work week of October starts warm with temps surging well into the 70s for Monday. That warm air is ahead of a strong cold front that arrives Tuesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms…

EuroGusty winds, showers and colder air will then carry us into Wednesday. Highs will come way down and be in the 50s. Those 50s should be around into Thursday.

That’s when we focus our attention on the next system rolling in for Halloween weekend. The models have been all over the place with how to handle this possible cold shot and that’s to be expected.The European Model has gone all in on a stronger storm system…

EuroThat would produce wintry weather around here if it verifies. That’s a very interesting solution that could be… yea. Anyway, it matches the European Ensembles from a few days ago.

The GFS continues to advertise the cold and a touch of winter…

GFSYes, that particular run shows some Halloween snowflakes being possible, but nothing like the European…

GFS 4 Check out the temperatures for trick or treat time…

GFS 2

Saturday Morning lows are forecast to be deep into the 20s.

GFS 3That’s a heck of a way to say goodbye to October and hello to November. We still have a ways to go, but it’s certainly something for us to keep a very close eye on.

The seasonal CFS model continues to advertise colder than normal air coming from mid November into early December…

CFS

The corresponding snow numbers for each of those 10 day periods…

CFS 2

CFS 3It will be interesting to see if that model can remain consistent in the coming days as they usually bounce around a lot.

Have a great day and take care.

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Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a brief update on the potential cold shot coming our way in about a week. Of course, that’s Halloween, so the forecast carries a little more weight than normal.

The models continue to advertise a big dip in the jet stream, but vary from run to run on how strong of a system we will be dealing with. The GFS is back on board for a healthy blast of cold…

GFS

GFS 2  GFS TEMPS 1A full update comes your way tonight. See ya then.

Take care.

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A Great Weekend Ahead

Good Friday and welcome to the weekend. We have a pretty nice weather weekend kicking off here in the bluegrass state. Temps will take a walk on the mild side with mainly dry conditions. Enjoy it, because several systems look to bring some big changes as we head into Halloween week.

There is a very weak system pushing across our region today. This is spitting out some clouds and there is a small threat for a few sprinkles or a light shower.

Current temperatures

Temps should warm toward 70 if not a little higher on Saturday. Winds will become gusty from the southwest and could reach 25mph at times. Those winds area ahead of a weak cold front that sweeps in later in the day. While it looks dry, I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a stray shower on radar.

Sunday looks equally as nice with slightly cooler air in the central and east. Enjoy this weekend!

Changes show up by Tuesday as a strong cold front pushes in from the northwest. That will bring gusty showers and storms that hang around into early Wednesday…

Euro 2

Temps will come tumbling down with readings in 50s for highs by the middle of the week. What happens after this continues to be the weather question of the moment. The GFS has been advertising a taste of winter weather across the eastern half of the country for Halloween weekend. Other models, like the European Ensembles, joined the mix…

Euro

What does the GFS do once it gets friends to play with? It takes its ball and goes home. The overnight run of the model totally abandoned the cold weather idea. The European Model held serve with it…

Euro

That’s still a week away and we have a lot of time to figure out this plays out. The models are not getting the normal amount of data ingested into them, so some wild swings are likely until that problem is resolved.

I will have another update later this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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