Looking Toward Thanksgiving Week

Good Sunday, everyone. Saturday’s weather was every bit as wild as we thought it would be. We went from the 60s to snow showers in a matter of hours as winds flirted with 50mph in a few spots. Our weekend is wrapping up cold, but what about the turkey week ahead?

Let’s start with today before we jump go all gobble gobble on you. Get it? Gobble… never mind. :)

Leftover snow showers and flurries may be around to start the day across the east and southeast…

These won’t show up on radar very well, but some flakes may be flying out there early. Winds will still be a bit gusty with afternoon highs only in the 30s.

Monday starts cold with upper teens in the valleys and 20-25 everywhere else. Sunny skies will boost temps into the 40s.

The dry weather should carry us through the busy travel day Wednesday. Clouds increase Thanksgiving Day as a storm system approaches from the west. Winds become southwesterly during this time as temps rise. Heavy rain and some thunder pushes in for Black Friday. The models continue to handle this complex system differently from run to run. The latest GFS shows a lot of rain followed by much colder air and some flakes by late Saturday…


Notice how it keeps part of the storm to our southwest. That’s because it leaves a lot of the upper air energy bundled up in the southwestern part of the country…


I’m not sold on that happening… not to that extent. The -EPO suggests any trough in the west doesn’t stay there for long. Let’s say that is correct. The model then brings that storm system out a few days later and into our region into early December…


That would unleash some cold air. The same model run shows another trough digging in a few days later…


Another sign pointing at some intrusions of cold air into the east comes from the PNA (Pacific North American pattern). A positive PNA means a ridging up the west coast of the United States that usually leads to downstream trough across the central and east. Notice how the forecast for the PNA goes strongly positive as we flip from November to December…


Now, check where the PNA has been for most of fall… negative. It’s not a coincidence this fall has been warmer than normal for our region and much of the country.

I will update later today. Take care.


Tracking A Wild Weather Ride

Good Saturday, everyone. A strong cold front is set to blast the bluegrass state today and that means a wild temperature ride is on the way. As temps take a big tumble, the first snowflakes of the season will be possible in many areas.

Early today, a mix of sun and clouds will help boost temps into the 50s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. A 60 is possible with enough sun. As that’s happening, temps across western Kentucky are tanking into the upper 30s and low 40s. That big temp drop works to the east behind our cold front.

A band of rain and snow showers will be along and behind the front. Some flakes may start to fly as surface temps reach  the upper 30s.  That zips quickly through the region into the evening with some leftover flurries late tonight and Sunday morning in the east. If you’re expecting this to be more than just the first flakes, you’re going to be disappointed.

Temperatures drop into the upper 20s and low 30s late this evening and drop into the 20-25 degree range by Sunday morning. Wind chills may hit the teens at times.

Track it all…

Sunday will see highs only in the 30s with a mix of sun and clouds. This takes us into the start of Thanksgiving week and things look to start out very nice.  That changes later Thanksgiving into the long holiday weekend as a storm system moves in here.

I’ve pointed out this possibility for several days and I see absolutely no reason to change it. The computer model forecasts continue to back around to this potential. The GFS continues to show a rain and a winter weather threat around here…


I will have another update later today. Buckle up for the temp ride and take care.


Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Your friendly weatherdude is dropping by for a quick update on the upcoming weather pattern.

I have absolutely no changed on how the weekend plays out. Temps take a big dip from west to east tomorrow afternoon and evening as winds really crank. A band of rain and snow showers follows the front with lingering flurries Saturday night and Sunday morning with very cold air pouring in.

The models continue to be all over the place with the Thanksgiving weekend system. The European Model is going to be lost in the woods in a setup like this one. This is probably not going to be a good winter for that model beyond 4 or 5 days.

The GFS goes back and forth with the storm, but the new run looks like this…


We shall see.

Enjoy the evening and take care.


First Flakes Possible This Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We’re rolling into the weekend on a pleasant note across the bluegrass state. Today’s nice weather will soon be replaced by a blast of winter that can deliver the first flakes of the season to many in our region.

A potent storm zips into the Ohio Valley later tonight into Saturday. This will bring an early season snowstorm to the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. For us, it means a big temperature plunge and rain or snow showers working through here…


That’s from the GFS and shows a decent chance at the first flakes for many areas. That’s still not a given, but the odds are many of us see, at least, some flakes at some point. The GFS still tries to coat a rooftop…

GFS Snow

Yea, I’m not too geeked up about much sticking. But, temps do crash quickly during the afternoon and evening. Check out this drop…


Wind chills Saturday night and Sunday morning drop into the low and mid teens. Actual high temps on Sunday will run in the 30s.

Thanksgiving week starts dry and seasonally chilly through Wednesday. This looks to change by the end of the week as a slow-moving storm develops in the plains and rides eastward. The models are really having a tough time with this because they’re seeing some kind of tropical of hybrid type storm developing well off the east coast. Depending on how they handle that, or if it’s even real, has a direct impact on the progress of the plains storm. Think of it as the Atlantic system throwing up a stop sign.

Regardless… I think a slow-moving disruptive storm is possible for much of the country…

Special 2

We will have to wait and see how that plays out exactly, and in what form it takes.

I will have another update later today. Take care.


Update On The Weekend Wintry Blast

Good evening, gang. The forecast continues to play out as expected with a blast of winter weather rolling our way for the upcoming weekend. This isn’t a huge deal in terms of snow, but the first flakes of the season always gets our attention.

Temps ahead of the front on Saturday will hit the low 50s as clouds quickly increase. Winds will be gusty as temps crash once the front sweeps through. A 20 degree drop in just a few hours is a good bet. Much of the precipitation falls in the colder air behind the front. That means a period of rain and snow showers will be likely…

GFSThat’s a pretty decent burst of snow showing up on the GFS early Saturday evening. Leftover flakes will carry us into Sunday morning in eastern Kentucky.

That’s a big snowstorm for areas to our north…

GFS 2Notice how the GFS suggests some accumulation across Kentucky. I’m not seeing that at the moment, but I can’t rule out a rooftop coating if it snows hard enough.

Wind chills hit the low and mid teens Saturday night and Sunday morning. Brr!

The long range call for Thanksgiving week is for another storm system to impact our weather. This looks to be during the busy holiday weekend and you’re now seeing the models going back to what they were showing up until a few days ago. Rain and snow are on the early Thanksgiving weekend weather menu.

I will have a full update later tonight. Take care.

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A Taste Of Winter This Weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. Our wet and windy weather is behind us and now it’s time to look ahead toward the weekend. It’s a weekend that features our first brush with winter across the bluegrass state. This looks to be part of a much bigger change that can crank some decent winter weather as we move through the rest of the month and into December.

The front dipping in here on Saturday will bring a lot of gusty winds, a big temperature drop and some rain and snow showers. Early in the day, temps are going to make a run at 50 ahead of the front. As the front moves through… readings drop quickly into the 30s. Most of the precipitation is behind the front and that gives us the chance for seeing flakes. The GFS has a nice look for the first flakes of the year…


In that setup, flakes may fall with temps well above freezing. The same model run even shows this…

GFS Snow

I wouldn’t expect anything to stick if you do get some snow where you live. This is not a big deal, except for it being the first flakes of the season.

Temps fall into the upper 20s by late Saturday evening and drop to around 20 by Sunday morning. Wind chills will be in the teens. Some leftover flurries will be possible early Sunday with afternoon highs in the 30s. Winds will make it feel even colder.

Thanksgiving week starts with clear and chilly temps with a big storm lurking the second half of the week. That should impact our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Watch for the models to come back around to what they were showing a few days ago with this storm. One of the reasons is the blocking taking place in the eastern Pacific.

I touched on this a few days ago and how I thought that was a primary driver in the pattern of the past few winters. When the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) Index goes into a negative phase, it’s usually a good indicator of cold and winter weather for the central and eastern parts of the country. Check out the various model forecasts of that index over the next few weeks…


Blocking 3

Blocking 2

That doesn’t get much more negative than what’s being forecast. How does that interact with the strong El Nino currently in progress? That remains to be seen, but odds favor the possibility of an active winter setup as we close the month out and roll into December.

Check out the coast to coast frigid air on the GFS as we say hello to December…


I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.


Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our wet and windy weather is slowly winding down as we turn our attention toward a weekend blast of winter.

I have no changes on my Saturday thoughts… A strong cold front dives in from the northwest with a band of rain and snow showers along and behind it…


Temps will spike ahead of the front, but come crashing down behind it. Temps continue to tank Saturday evening as a strong northwesterly wind kicks in. Throw in the wind and temps near 20, you can get some very cold wind chills showing up late Saturday night…

GFS Temps

That’s just cold!

I leave you with your tools to track the rains out of town…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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A Wet And Windy Wednesday

Good Wednesday to one and all. The monster storm in the plains continues to lift northward and is bringing a lot of rain and high winds to our region. Once this passes through here, we start to focus on more of a wintry looking pattern for the final few weeks of November and early into December.

Today’s wind is going to steal the weather show with gusts topping out at 40mph or greater. Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms weep eastward through the day. Many areas pick up 1″-2″ of rain before all is said and done. Track away…

Thursday and Friday see a seasonal chill blowing back in here. Highs Thursday reach the 50s with skies becoming partly sunny. Upper 20s and low 30s start a Friday that ends with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Our weekend taste of winter is still on track. A cold front dives in here from the northwest early Saturday. This front will bring very windy weather with it as temps crash behind it. We’re also likely to see a band of light rain and snow showers along and behind the front…


If we end up seeing some flakes from this… it shouldn’t be anything more than just that. Still, it would be the first of the season and there’s always something magical about seeing flakes flying.

Temps will be in the low and mid 40s ahead of the front and then crash through the 40s once it goes through. Temps will be in the upper 20s by Saturday evening. Wind chills may reach the teens at times late Saturday evening…

GFS Temps

Holy smokes that’s some cold stuff just to our north! Ouch.

Highs on Sunday will struggle to get out of the 30s across the entire region.

A seasonal chill carries us into the first half of Thanksgiving week, but it’s looking more and more like a big storm system may impact the long holiday weekend…


That’s going to be something to keep a very close eye on as we roll forward. Also watch the first week of December for a possible big system. The signal is there.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your wet and windy Wednesday and take care.


Tuesday Evening Update

Good Evening, folks. High winds and heavy rain are on the way for Wednesday. That’s been covered extensively here for the past week or so. Let’s take a quick look at where we go from here.

A winter looking system zips across the Ohio Valley Saturday with a band of rain and snow. The GFS and European Models are similar with this…



GFS 2Obviously, the European model is a little more wound up with that system. The end result for us is about the same. We get a band of possible rain and snow showers working through behind a strong cold front Saturday. Winds are going to be very gusty, as well. Temps spike into the 40s ahead of the front and drop quickly behind it.

Upper teens try to sneak in here Sunday morning with highs struggling to 40.

Thanksgiving week starts chilly and dry, but a late week storm system is going to try to develop and work our way…

GFS 3Again, that’s more than a week away so we will see how the models handle this in the next several days.

A few weeks ago I was telling you about picking up on a signal for a major mid November storm system developing. That’s the one bringing a blizzard and severe weather to our west. The same one impacting us tomorrow. I’m starting to see a signal showing up as we flip the calendar to December.

Sure enough, the GFS super long range shows something…

GFS 4We shall see.

I leave you with your radars to track the action to our west…

Enjoy the evening and take care.


Watching Wednesday And The Weekend Taste Of Winter

Good Tuesday, folks. A massive storm system is slowly working across the plains and continues to throw some rain our way today. This action takes a break later on before kicking into high gear on Wednesday. That’s when some very gusty winds join the party. As we get into the weekend, something else tries to pump up the jam at our weather house party.

Today starts out rainy across much of central and western Kentucky. That rain scoots off the north later today as winds increase and some sun appears. Temps hit the 60s.

The heaviest rains moves in Wednesday as a band of thunderstorms slowly moves from west to east across Kentucky. Winds may also gust to 40mph during the day.

Colder air moves in late Thursday into Friday, but this is a normal chill. A bigger blast of cold swings in Saturday as another front crosses the region. This will be a very windy system that has a big temperature crash behind it. It also has the chance to give us the first flakes of the season.  The European Model really digs a system into our region and would produce light snow…


That’s a pretty wrapped up looking system! Interesting.

The GFS isn’t as strong, but still spits out the first flakes…


The Canadian does too…


The GFS temps…

GFS Temps

If the European Model verifies, those numbers would be even colder. If!

Speaking of the European. The latest “weekly” forecast from the smoothed out European Ensembles is out for the next month…


Euro 4


Euro 3I will have another update later today. Until then, take care.