Active Weather Days Ahead

Good Wednesday, folks. Some areas are getting in on a breath of fresh air today with cooler temps and lower humidity levels. The oppressive stuff moves back in quickly for Thursday and sets the stage for some big storms. These storms may increase into the start of the weekend as we await the arrival of a much cooler pattern.

With a front just to our south, temps will come down into the low and mid 80s for highs into parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels will be much, much cooler. The same can’t be said for the west and far south. There is still a small chance for a shower or storm, but most areas look to be in decent shape.

As I sated last week, Thursday has the chance to give us the hottest weather of the entire summer. Low to mid 90s will be possible if we keep the sunshine. Heat index values of 100-105 may be common. Our saving grace could be the gusty winds.

Strong to severe storms would then be possible late in the day into Thursday night. Thunderstorm clusters will dive in from the northwest and these could be damaging wind producers.

SPC

Friday into Saturday continue to look very active as low pressure moves across the area…

Canadian

Heavy rainfall and additional strong storms would be possible ahead of that type of system. Much cooler air then spreads in from the northwest. Highs from Sunday into early next week may not get out of the 70s for many areas.

Another system would then dive in by the middle of next week and could deliver more heavy rains. The European Model continues to advertise some big rain amounts from these two systems…

EuroAs usual, I have you all set to track whatever weather we have going up out there today…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments

Storming Into A BIG Pattern Change

Good Tuesday, everyone. Steam and storms have been the theme of the past few weeks and continues to be the flavor of this week. The steam part is about to get kicked out of here in a big, big way. June looks to end how it started… cooler than normal, and that carries us into July.

In the short term, we have to be on guard for possible strong and severe storms today. A weak cold front is moving in from the northwest and will have a lot of tropical air to work with. That means any storm that goes up could produce damaging winds and produce a lot of rain and lightning. I will get to your tracking toys in a bit.

Wednesday may find slightly cooler and less humid conditions across the region… Especially central and east. A storm or two will still be possible.

Thursday into Thursday night could be very active across our part of the world. Temps Thursday afternoon could reach the low and mid 90s with the humidity levels making it feel much hotter. Winds will be very also be rather gusty. All of this may set the stage for rounds of thunderstorms to move in from the northwest. This setup can produce a derecho somewhere across the Ohio Valley. This period has my attention.

My attention is also focused on the potential for quite a bit of rain Friday into Saturday. A slow moving system will work right on top of the region with widespread showers and storms possible…

Euro

Heavy rain and thunderstorms could become widespread during that time. Another system pushes in from the northwest a few days later. The European rainfall numbers over the next week suggest the potential for some additional high water issues…

Euro 3

The Canadian Model ups the ante even more…

Canadian

Those showers and storms are ahead of a winter looking dip in the jet stream that takes place this weekend into next week. Check out the view by Sunday…

Canadian That trough continues to dig in as we roll through next week… Euro 2What does that mean for our actual weather? How about the possibility of several days in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows. A rainy day could even give some areas 60s for highs.

Let’s track today’s severe threat…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Lots Of Storms Before A Cooler Change

Good Monday, everyone. Our stormy period rolls on across the commonwealth of Kentucky. These storms will be rather frequent this week and should bring additional heavy rains to go along with a severe threat. The increase in the action is because of a change to a cooler pattern that is already underway. You’re just not going to feel it until the weekend and next week.

Today should feature a storm or two out there, but this looks to be the driest day of the week. Thunderstorm chances will really ramp back up on Tuesday when another round of severe storms could come calling.

Get used to that… storms will be very common for the middle and later part of the week and that should take us through the upcoming weekend. That’s when a strong system digs in from the northwest…

Euro

That could be a decent severe weather maker across our part of the world. There’s also the chance that system stalls across the Ohio Valley or another system could dive in and take its place. With a big heat ridge developing in the west and a deep trough digging into the east, the chance for a lot of rain continues to be with us. The two week model rainfall forecast…

GFS 2

Don’t take the exact placement and numbers to heart, but do listen to the overall theme of the models… stormy!

Another trend is toward cooler, and potentially much cooler. The GFS Ensembles as we close out June and say hello to July…

GFS

I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments

Tracking Possible Severe Storms

Good Sunday and a Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. The big day will feature another round of strong to severe storms diving in from the northwest. This action comes on the heels of a drenching rain courtesy of Tropical Depression Bill.

Bill is off to our east, but left behind a lot of awesome stats…

– This was still a tropical depression as it crossed Kentucky… Some 4 days after making landfall in Texas.

– This was the first Tropical Depression to make it all the way into Kentucky since 3 storms did it back in the busy 2005 hurricane season.

– This was one of the only times on record the center of circulation of a tropical system passed over the Lexington metro.

– Much of the region picked up 2″-5″ of rain from Thursday through Saturday. Officially, Saturday gave Lexington the wettest June 20th on record with 1.8″ of rain.

Fast-forward to today and we find more storms set to impact the region. A few clusters of strong to severe storms will dive in from the northwest. These storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. Torrential rainfall could cause some local water issues.

Get used to the rounds of storms…

GFS

Storms in that hot and humid environment can drop a lot of rain and produce some wind damage. Be advised!

The heat and humidity gets ready to take a hike to the western part of the country starting next weekend. That trend looks to continue into the week leading up to the 4th of July…

CFS

The CFS is painting a similar view for July as a whole…

CFS 2

I leave you with today’s storm tracking tools…

trackers on here first…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

21 Comments

Tracking The Flood Threat

Good Saturday, everyone. What’s left of Tropical Storm Bill is working across Kentucky and bringing quite a bit of rain with it. This rain, combined with recent heavy rains, will lead to an increased flash flood threat today into this evening.

The swirling bands of showers and storms will continue to be impressive on radar. These bands of storms can also spawn a quick tornado spin up, but the chance is fairly low.

A general 1″-4″ of rain (from Friday through Today) is likely across the state, but higher amounts will be possible under the core of the system. That would be more than enough to cause some high water conditions to develop. Of course, this does not mean everyone will see flooding!

You will also notice gusty winds out there today as this tropical depression passes over us.

I have a full discussion on where we go from here, but I want to put all the tropical trackers on here first…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

What’s left of Bill will scoot out of here this evening. This sets the stage for a very hot and humid Sunday with clusters of thunderstorms working in from the northwest. Severe weather is a possibility into Sunday night and Monday.

These storm clusters can continue to cause issues through the end of the week…

GFS

A strong cold front looks to sweep in here by Friday and Saturday with some potent thunderstorms. That also should be the beginning of a MUCH cooler period. Check out the big dip in the jet stream showing up next weekend…

GFS 2That setup looks to continue into the final days of June and into early July…

Euro 3

The European Ensembles first 5 days of July show much cooler than normal temps for much of the country…

Euro 2I will have updates on today’s flooding potential as needed. Have a great day and take care.

13 Comments

Tracking The Weekend Flood Threat

Good Friday, folks. We have a potentially significant rain event setting up across our region. Rounds of heavy rains have drenched much of the bluegrass state in recent days and a lot more is on the way. What’s left of Tropical Storm Bill will be rolling through here over the next couple of days.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Tropical rain producing showers and storms will develop out there today. Just like yesterday, these storms can put down a tremendous amount of rain leading to local flash flood issues.

– A few storms could be strong with isolated severe weather possible.

– The remnants of Bill will work into western Kentucky this evening and then roll through the rest of the state on Saturday. The NAM shows the core of this tracking right on top of us…

NAM

– Spiraling bands of rain and storms will likely show up around the center of this system. The atmosphere looks tropical from top to bottom and that means heavy rains

– A general 1″-4″ rain looks likely across much of the state through Saturday night. Totals can be higher under directly under the core of that system.

– If there is some sunshine ahead of this system on Saturday… a brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

– Once this system moves to our east, we really will have to watch for clusters of strong and severe storms moving in from the northwest. That looks to be the case from late Sunday into early next week. Those same systems could bring additional high water concerns.

– The next week to two weeks of weather could bring some major rainfall numbers to our part of the world.

As always, I have the blog all set for your rain and storm tracking needs…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

4 Comments

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. Things continue to come together for a heavy rain event across much of the bluegrass state in the coming days. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms will be the opening act for the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill.

This system will work across Kentucky late tomorrow into Saturday and could bring a deluge with it. I’ve highlighted the areas at greatest risk for seeing, at least some, flooding problems…

Special 2

That doesn’t mean everyone in those areas will see enough rain to cause flooding, but it shows the areas with the highest threat.

Folks with the WPC are finally figuring out this system is not going toward the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

HPC

WPC 2

Before the remnants of Bill move through, we have to really be on guard for some local high water issues from storm clusters. These clusters will develop later today and could really kick in tonight into Friday morning. A few of these storms may also be strong or locally severe.

Rounds of strong and severe storms may follow Bill late Sunday into next week. This is a very stormy pattern that can put down way too much rain around here in the coming week and change.

I have you all set to track today’s action…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Updates as needed. Take care.

15 Comments

Heavy Rain Threat To Increase

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms continue to push across the bluegrass state. This action is setting the stage forheavier rains coming from the leftovers of Tropical Storm Bill. It continues to look like that system will track right on top of Kentucky.

Storms today can be on the strong side with some local severe weather possible. The main threats will be from a lot of lightning (LOL) and torrential rains. The rains could lead to local high water issues developing.

Rounds of showers and storms will get more of a tropical punch later Friday into Saturday as what’s left of Bill rolls on top of the region. The core of the system shows up very well on the precipitable water forecast map…

GFS

There has been no change on the model track of the core of this system. The only change is the precipitation forecasts from the models are finally catching up. Those forecasts never matched up with what the  core of the system was actually doing. That’s why you never saw me write about them or tell you everything would miss us to the north.

As it stands now, Saturday into Saturday night could get interesting as that core passes right on top of us. The rain shield and storms with this system may actually increase during this time and that could cause some issues. Obviously, flooding would be possible if things play out in that fashion.

After that passes through, temps head toward 90 for Sunday with storm clusters cranking from the northwest. That setup could send some big time clusters of strong and severe storms in here into early next week.

The second half of the week may feature the hottest temps of the entire summer around here if storms don’t get in the way (and that’s possible)…

GFS 2

That’s a transient heat ridge which would only be around for a couple of days. Look what replaces it a few days later…

GFS 3As usual, I have you all set to track today’s storms…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates later today. Have a great day and take care.

4 Comments

Tracking Big Boomers and “Bill”

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our active weather pattern kicked into high gear yesterday with rounds of strong and severe thunderstorms. We’re likely to see additional rounds of big boomers over the next couple of days. After that, we will focus on what’s left of Bill and how it may bring significant rains our way.

In the short term, its’ another steamy day with rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms developing. Here’s what to expect in order of likelihood:

– Torrential rainfall that could lead to local high water

– Dangerous cloud to ground lightning

– Damaging winds

– Large hail

I will get your storm tracking toys on in a bit.

A similar setup will be with us on Thursday and that means another day of possible strong to severe storms. The same threats should also be noted.

What’s left of Bill should begin to impact our region on Friday and continue into Saturday. Odds favor showers and storms on the increase and this action can put down a lot of water. The latest data still shows what’s left of this moving across our region…

GFSHigh water issues could become common as what’s left of Bill works across our part of the world.

Beyond that… Sunday looks hot and humid with the potential for a round of storms coming from the northwest. That pattern really takes hold early next week as the heat ridge pushes into the southwestern part of the country…

Special1The early stab at next week would feature hot and humid weather returning by the second half of the week. Hottest of the entire summer? That shouldn’t last very long… After that, watch for a deep trough to try and dig into our region.

Let’s do some Wednesday storm tracking…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

10 Comments

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good Tuesday afternoon, gang. Our pattern is about to become very active with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, and the heavy rain threat from Tropical Storm Bill.

Storms will fire up this afternoon and evening and could bring some very heavy rains with them. A few storms could even be on the strong side.

A better chance for strong or severe storms will come our way over the next few days. A cold front slows down across the region and that’s the focusing mechanism to get the storms to fire. The SPC has much of the region in the Slight Risk area…

SPC

Damaging winds and large hail will be the usual main suspects.

With so much tropical moisture in place… local flooding problems will be a strong possibility. Remember my word from last week about this week? Cloudburst.

This brings us to tracking the leftovers of Bill. Our Tropical Storm is coming ashore across Texas and will lift north through the Mississippi Valley and then turn eastward into the Ohio Valley. Add the NAM to the growing list of tacking the leftovers across Kentucky on Friday and Saturday…

NAM

That’s a map similar to the one I posted last night from the GFS. That’s a TON of deep tropical moisture that could produce a lot of rain for areas along the track. We will really have to watch for that possibility in the coming days.

The brand spanking new Canadian Model has a very ugly look for our region…

Canadian

In the short-term, let’s track the increasing amounts of showers and storms we have out there today…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have a full update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Enjoy the day and take care.

12 Comments