Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s hoping the day is treating you well. Colder air continues to push into the region and will knock our temps way down from where we’ve been in recent days. This leads us into a pattern loaded with winter over the next few weeks and that action starts later this week.

We could actually see a few snow flurries flying around tonight into Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

The Thursday system keeps upping the chances for a period of light snow and flurries for much of the state. The NAM is jumping on board with this potential…

NAM

The best chance continues to show up across the western and southern parts of the state. The Short Range Ensembles Forecast (SREF), however, does show more moisture farther north and east…

SREFIf the ensembles are correct, the threat for some light snow would come farther north and east. That’s a trend we will keep watching.

I’m also watching the potential weekend system that the models continue to be all over the place with. The regular GFS still can’t get anything right in the lower levels or upper levels of the atmosphere. Throw in the fact it is also having convective feedback issues, and you have a model that is still useless.

The new version of the GFS appears to be getting better organized with this system, but offers up a choppy winter precipitation shield…

GFS

The SREF is offering up a very expansive precipitation shield at the very end of it’s range (Friday Evening)…

SREF 2

The models are a long way from figuring out the Thursday system, let alone what will happen this upcoming weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, I have to admit, I’m rooting against a big winter system around here. I would hate to cancel my much anticipated trip to Chicago.  Don’t judge me, snow lovers. :)

I will have another update later today. Take care.

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Tracking The Return Of Winter

Good Tuesday to one and all. Winter weather is heading back into Kentucky in the coming days as we slip into what may become a rather wild pattern over the next couple of weeks. If you like snow and cold, you should really be licking your chops with this kind of setup.

Let’s get this party started by talking about what’s going on today. Temps will start the day in the upper 40s and low 50s then drop toward the low 40s from west to east this afternoon. A few gusty showers will also be noted as a cold front swings through the region.

Current temperatures

Colder air continues to filter in right on through Wednesday with highs only in the 30s. A stray snow flurry will also be possible.

This brings us into a pattern featuring a couple of potential snow makers from later this week into the weekend. I’m seeing a couple of trends emerging: 1. The Thursday system is showing up a little stronger. 2. The weekend system is showing up a little weaker.

Let’s start with the Thursday system as it’s piquing my interest a little more the closer we get. The European Model is now spitting out more of a widespread light snow and flurry maker for much of the state…

Euro

It continues to show the greatest potential across the west and south, but the whole setup is showing up a little stronger. If this trend continues, we might have to talk about the possibility of sticking snows for some. The new version of the GFS is even picking up on this much better than earlier runs…

GFS

It doesn’t show this to the extent of the European, but this model basically had nothing coming from prior runs.

As far as the weekend winter storm potential goes… I suspect what happens with that storm will be impacted by the Thursday system. It’s no coincidence we are seeing the models trending a little stronger for Thursday and a touch weaker for Saturday. That’s because we’re getting a little more energy sneaking out instead of hanging back and bundling into one strong storm. Of course… that’s the latest flavor of the models and that may all change with ensuing runs.

It’s not like the European Model isn’t still showing a decent system Friday night into Saturday…

Euro 2

That’s actually indicating a pretty good hit of winter weather across much of Kentucky.

Model variations are common and that’s what we will continue to see for another few days. It may not be until later Wednesday or Thursday before things really clear up.

Moral of the weather story… This is a setup that really bears watching as it could deliver a nice hit of winter over a busy travel weekend.

Christmas week will see another MAJOR buckle in the jet stream and that should provide this region and much of the eastern half of the country with a big blast of winter. The models continue to key on a possible system Christmas Eve and Day with the new version of the GFS going hog wild…

GFS 2

That is, obviously, on the extreme end of the spectrum, but the pattern is ripe for something to crank up around the time Santa arrives.

I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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Updating The Winter Weather Threat

Good Monday evening, gang. Old Man Winter looks ready to return in a big way over the next couple of weeks. I’ve been trying to drive this point home since back in November and I see ZERO reason to change my thoughts.

The action gets started with the potential for a streak of light snow and flurries for parts of the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The European Model shows the areas having the best chance to see some flakes…

Euro 3

The best chance will be in the west and south, but some flakes could fly anywhere at some point.

The same run of the European Model is a little farther south than earlier runs with the weekend winter storm potential…

Euro Euro Snow

Again, the models will show deviations from run to run and that always happens. As I mentioned a few days ago, there’s a better chance this storm goes too far south than too far north and produces just rain.

The control run of the European Ensembles basically didn’t budge with what they have been showing in recent days…

Euro 4 Euro 5

The GFS continues to be lost in the woods, but the “new” GFS continues to strongly trend toward what the European Model has been showing in recent days.

It’s still pretty early in the game, but the potential for a decent winter weather hit for our region is increasing. It’s far from a sure thing, but you have to like how things are looking from 4 days out.

Speaking of looking good, the signal for some Christmas Eve and Day fun continues to show up very well…

Euro 2 Buckle up… we have a lot of winter on the way.

Take care.

 

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Monday Afternoon Update

Good Monday afternoon. Rain is working across the state from west to east and this will usher in much colder air in the coming days. This will then lead us into a pattern that is LOADED with winter and the increasing potential for a rather harsh period.

The action begins with a swath of light snow streaking into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The best chance for this will be across the west and the southern parts of the state…

GFS Snow

The air associated with that continues to show up colder on the American Models. Shocking, I know!! These models are solely responsible for the day after day blowtorch warm forecasts you have been seeing in other weather circles. Those started the week before Thanksgiving with many forecasting sun and 60 for that big day. It turned into one of the coldest Thanksgivings on record with snow.  OK… fine… I’m stopping by rant before it gets started. :)

Back to the models and the weekend potential. The GFS is now the ONLY model that is 100% clueless. The “new” GFS is even finally sniffing something out…

GFS

12 hours ago, the Canadian Model had no storm. Here what it looks like now…

Canadian

In my last post, I said it’s important not to latch on to any one model or solution and to look for trends. What trends are we seeing with the above models? They went from showing goofy solutions to showing something similar to what the European Model has been consistently showing for several days.

The European Model will be out soon and I will tweet some information with what it’s showing. As consistent as the model has been, it is due for a goofy run of its own, so we shall see.

The action won’t stop with this system… the Christmas week and New Year’s week are loaded with snow threats with arctic air joining the mix.

I will update later. Take care.

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Strong Winter Signals Showing Up

Good Monday, folks. We’ve made it into the midway point of December and it’s time to shake things up in a big way. The first part of the month was talked about as a reloading period coming off a record cold November. The past few weeks missed a chance to give us some mild weather and now winter is planning a big return for the second half of the month… just in time for Christmas.

Today looks to be another dreary day in the bluegrass state with temps ranging from the mid 40s to around 50. Rain will increase quickly from west to east late today as a cold front sweeps in. We may even hear some thunder out of this.

Current temperatures

The showers will continue into Tuesday with very gusty winds and falling temperatures. This action may end as some snowflakes Tuesday night and Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

I’ve been talking about the possibility of a sneaky snow system showing up Wednesday night and Thursday and the models are trying to hone in on this. I think the best chance for some light snow will be across western and southern parts of the state. Whatever is out there may dry up the farther north and east it tries to get.

That brings us to the end of the week and weekend potential winter storm. A check of the models will find the Canadian with a low pressure along the Gulf coast and moving eastward with no impact on our weather. The GFS has some wacked out solution of a weak low pressure working all the way into Ohio. The poor model doesn’t even come close to matching what it’s very own Ensembles show…

GFS

That’s  Friday night through Saturday and is a good winter storm track for much of the bluegrass state. That’s very similar to what the European Model has been suggesting for the past several days. That model continues to show this storm having a significant impact on the weather around here. Here’s where the latest European Model shows the best chance for snow and frozen stuff…

Euro

That zone bounces around from run to run based on whatever track of the low it shows at any given time.

I have to put out the standard disclaimer with this: I am not telling you we are getting a winter storm this weekend… but I’m not telling you we aren’t, either. What I am saying is there is the POTENTIAL for a decent sized impact across parts of our region during this time frame.

The models will continue to spit out varying solutions for a couple more days before settling on some kind of solution. It’s always important to never get caught up in one model run. Look for trends, instead.

There continues to be a strong signal showing up for another potential winter storm around Christmas. The various Ensembles have been all over this for the past week and now the medium range models are sniffing something out. Even the GFS (which actually can be of some use at this range) is showing my concern. Check this big dip in the jet stream…

GFS 3

That could produce a major storm for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…

GFS 2

To see that kind of signal on the GFS from this range should be enough to get some folks attention. Why do I say that when I can’t stand the model? Because it matches the pattern with that storm and matches up with the Ensembles.

Another system would try to follow that up a few days later as arctic air starts to take hold.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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The European Model Loves Snow

Good Sunday afternoon… again. When your friendly weatherdude is updating things frequently, you know I’m seeing a lot of potential in the weather pattern. The European Model is seeing that potential and taking it above and beyond.

This model continues to throw a POTENTIAL big winter storm our way by the end of the week. It’s also showing the sneaky snow system I’ve talked about from late Wednesday into Thursday…

Euro 2That one is showing up more and more as we inch closer to it. I

The end of the week/weekend storm on the European Model continues to show up strongly. The signal for this has been there for a while, so I’m not surprised. If you want a winter storm to hit all of Kentucky, the track on the latest European Model is the track for you…

Euro Euro 3

The control run of the European Ensembles are very similar…

Euro 4

This POTENTIAL storm is now 5 days away from beginning, so we have to give it a little more attention than something beyond 7 days.

We often talk about a northwest trend in storms as we get closer. I don’t think that’s the case with this one. If anything, we will have to watch to see if this trends farther south and east or even for a much weaker system. Moral of the story… I think it’s more possible to get this thing to basically miss us south than it is to have the storm cut toward the Great Lakes and bring rain.

It’s a very interesting week of weather ahead of us and one that has my full attention… about a week earlier than I thought. BTW… there is another HEALTHY signal for a storm showing up around Christmas.

I may update again later today. Take care.

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Pre-Football Update

Good Sunday afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update before I settle in for an afternoon of NFL Football.

The pattern from later this month into January is likely to take on a very extreme look. A major period of blocking will develop across the North Pole and parts of Canada Christmas week into New Year’s week. That sends a DEEP trough across the country and it’s one that has DEEP FREEZE written all over it…

GFS

That’s one wicked pattern, folks. It’s one that will wind up much colder than my winter forecast called for… and it was already calling for a frigid January!

It’s also a setup that should feature mucho snow chances and the potential for something extreme.

Speaking of snow chances… I will be updating those with the post later today. The storm coming later this week continues to get my attention and there will be another one just before Christmas.  PS… don’t sleep on the potential for a band of light snow to sneak in here late Wednesday or Thursday ahead of the weekend storm.

Have a great afternoon and take care.

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Breaking Down The Winter Weather Potenial

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weekend his finishing on a rather dreary note… again. Lots of clouds will be with us today and these clouds could even spit out a shower. You guys don’t care about that… you want to know when some winter weather moves back in. The headlines have your breakdown:

- Today will feature mostly cloudy skies with the threat for a sprinkle or light shower. The cold valleys across the southeast could even see some light freezing rain early today. High temps will range from around 40 east to 50 in the far west.

- Showers move in late Monday as another area of low pressure works across the northern Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes.

- Much colder air slowly funnels in Tuesday with falling temps from west to east.

- Seasonally cold air will be around Wednesday and Thursday and that’s when we have to watch for some moisture working in from the west. This will likely dry up before it gets too far east, but the European Model shows frozen precipitation getting into the west on Thursday…

Euro 2

- The European Model continues to advertise a decent winter storm developing across the south Friday. That system them rolls toward the eastern Tennessee Valley with another low developing across North Carolina…

Euro

- The model continues to point toward a healthy swath of snow and frozen precipitation across parts of our region…

Euro 3

- I want to again emphasize this is one run of one computer model. That said, the European Model has been consistently showing some type of system impacting our weather during this time. Other models aren’t as keen on this type a scenario taking place.

- My advice is to put this into the “something to really watch” category in the coming days. Anyone saying you’re getting a snowstorm or telling you there’s nothing to see here, should be made politely giggled at behind their backs. ;)

- There continues to be another signal for a storm system around Christmas Eve or Day. The GFS ensembles are screaming storm with a huge trough diving in…

GFS 2

I will have updates later today. Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

16 Comments

Saturday Night Special

Good Saturday evening, gang. I wasn’t planning to update until I got a look at the late day model runs for later this month.

I’ve been pointing toward Christmas week as our transition week into a harsh winter pattern. That transition looks to be the coming week instead with Christmas week into New Year’s week taking on more of the harsh look.

The GFS Ensembles for Christmas week…

GFS 2

The control run of the Ensembles has a brutal look to it…

GFS 3

Notice the tremendous amount of blocking along the west coast and across northern Canada. That’s the look some of the historic winter’s from the past have given us. Now, I’m not saying this is a historic winter… but that’s pretty awesome to see if you like cold and snow.

The GFS actually matches what the Ensembles show in the extended period (doesn’t mean it’s right). Check out the lows a few days after Christmas…

GFS 4

Interesting times ahead!

I will have a full update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

7 Comments

The European Model Is Your Snowy Friend

Good afternoon, everyone. Getting ready to head out to Fayette Mall to ring the bell for the Salvation Army and wanted to throw you a quick update.

The European Model continues to be a friend to snow lovers across our region. Take a look…

Euro

Euro 2Other models aren’t as bullish on this scenario, but if there’s one model you want on your side, it’s the European Model.

Check yourself, though… that’s still a week away. I’m just sharing a model with you guys. :)

I will try to update this evening. Take care.

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