Fall In The Middle Of Summer

Good Tuesday and welcome to a taste of fall. A much cooler than normal pattern is settling into the bluegrass state and could lead to record low temps in the coming days. This air will hang tough into the start of the weekend. That’s when it may be joined by another decent shot of rain.

A cold front is blasting out of southeastern Kentucky today and is taking the showers and storms with it. Cool and dry air comes in behind this with highs in the middle 70s across many areas. The south and southeast could be warmer depending on the timing of the front.

Current temperatures

Tonight’s temps will drop like a rock with dry air and mainly clear skies. The GFS is rocking some almost chilly temps by Wednesday morning…

GFS 2

That would certainly leave a mark on history. Those are likely too low, but upper 40s to low 50s look very possible in many areas and records may fall.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday should stay in the mid and upper 70s with some sun. Friday will see a moisture rich system making a run at us. The Canadian Model shows a healthy rainfall…

Canadian

The European Model isn’t to different and holds the rain into Saturday…Euro

Friday has the potential to be a very cool day if the rain arrives early enough. The highs from the European Model are ridiculous…

Euro 2There is a lot of 2009 to this pattern!

Enjoy your day and take care.

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A Very Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday, folks. We have a powerful cold front surging into the region today and this will create rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong with some MUCH needed rainfall likely. What comes after the storms will steal the weather show. Record to near record cold temps are possible this week.

We need rain! The recent underperforming storms of the past 10 days have really dried things out and you saw that coming into play with the scorching temps on Sunday. Today’s front has a good shot at bringing beneficial rainfall to the region into early Tuesday. Some areas do run the risk of too much of a good thing and we will have to watch for local high water issues.

A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe… especially across the southern half of the state.

Temps will be MUCH cooler today and may not get much past the upper 70s to low 80s because of clouds and rain. Those numbers may be the warmest we see all week. Check out the huge dip in the jet stream coming over the next few days…

Euro 2

That is something straight out of winter and isn’t something you see a lot in summer. The cool numbers coming in behind this could be record setters for lows and lowest high temps. The NAM has low and mid 70s for Tuesday…

NAM

Record lows may go down by Wednesday morning with upper 40s to low 50s possible with clear skies. Check out the GFS numbers…

GFS 2We will keep the 70s for highs Wednesday into Thursday with a partly sunny sky. A potential old fashioned rain maker will try to work our way by Friday into Saturday. The European Model…

EuroThat could be a VERY cool rain… if it actually materializes.

Ok… let’s get your Monday weather trackers out there…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms Usher In Possible Record Cold

Good Sunday, everyone. Much needed rain is likely to fall across the bluegrass state over the next few days. The trade off may come in the form of a few strong or severe storms. What follows the storms will be fall or winter looking jet stream that delivers the threat of record cold to much of the country.

Scattered storms are possible through today, but a line of big boomers may move in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. These may be severe and I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for showers and storms will increase Monday into early Tuesday as our cold pattern sweeps in. Here’s the European Model…

Euro

This provides us with a very good chance for another round of strong and severe storms Monday. It also gives us a better than even shot at widespread, beneficial rains.

Check out the wintertime look to the mid-week pattern…

Euro 3Record or near record cold is likely across Kentucky and much of the plains states and east. I was looking at some of the records lows for this timeframe and they match up with a couple of other years that featured developing weak to moderate el ninos… 1976 and 2009.

Watch for a possible piece of upper level energy swinging in behind this by the end of the week into next weekend. The European Model shows this…

Euro 2

I leave you with the storm tracking tools…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

34 Comments

Steamy to Stormy With Fall To Follow

Good Saturday, folks. Hot temps are surging into the bluegrass state this weekend, but this heat won’t last very long. A big drop in temperatures is on the way for next week and it could put us withing striking distance of record lows.

When you go from hot to super cool… something has to give and that’s likely to be some pretty good thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the region in the risk for severe weather during this time.

Between now and then… it’s hot, but nothing out of the ordinary. I’m fascinated by people who talk about how hot 90 degrees is in the middle of Summer. Normal highs are in the upper 80s for this time of year. Would these same people hype a 40 degree high temp day in December as being cold? Of course not, even if 40 is farther away from a normal high for December than 90 is right now.

Ok… rant over. :)

A few storms are possible today and regional radar will help you find them…

We have a better chance coming in late Sunday and Monday. This is when we get our powerhouse cold front swinging closer to the region. The European Model has this thing looking a lot like a wintertime clipper…

EuroThe air coming behind that will lead to a stretch of late September temps that will be well below normal. Check out the highs from the European Model…

Euro 2That is just crazy to see for this time of year. Lows on a few mornings may drop into the upper 40s to low 50s for many areas.

Enjoy your weekend and take care.

17 Comments

Some Heat Before A Taste Of Fall

Good Friday, folks. Temps are getting ready to take a walk on the wild side of the thermometer over the next week and change. We are really going to toast things up this weekend before the bottom falls out as we head into next week. Another taste of early fall weather is on the way.

Highs today will reach the middle 80s across central and eastern Kentucky with some upper 80s in the west. Readings this weekend will surge to around 90 for highs with an increasing threat for showers and storms. The best chance this weekend looks to come on Sunday.

Storms should really increase by Monday as a powerful cold front pushes our way from the northwest. If we are going to get beneficial rains over the next week… this is our best chance. The GFS is showing us some love…

GFS Rain

Stop teasing us, GFS!!

The showers and storms of Monday will be ahead of a monster dip in the jet stream for the middle and end of next week. This has been on our radar for more than a week, now.

Check out the summer version of the Polar Vortex…

GFS

The Polar Vortex isn’t just a winter thing… it’s always there and is deciding to pay another visit to the same areas it spent a lot of time in this past winter. What does it mean for us? Check out the forecast highs…

GFS 2 And the lows by Wednesday morning…

GFS 3

 

Keep in mind… just a few days ago the GFS was telling its worshipers we would see 100 degrees during this same time period.

Have a great Friday and take care.

 

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Tracking Big Changes

Good Thursday, everyone. Gorgeous weather continues across the bluegrass state today, but big changes are on the way. These changes will steam us up and throw some storms our way by the weekend. That won’t last long as temps trend in the opposite direction next week.

Let’s start where we are now. Highs today will mainly be in the low 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. A few middle 80s will be around in the west. Humidity levels will continue to run on the low side with a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated showers and storms may pop across the southeast.

Current temperatures

Friday will find temps warming into the middle 80s for many as we hang on to the sun. Saturday looks steamy with upper 80s and the occasional 90 showing up. Watch the northwestern sky for some showers and storms trying to ride in here around the core of the heat well to our southwest…

Euro

The threat for showers and storms will increase from Sunday into Monday as a powerful system drops in from the northwest. The air coming in behind this looks pretty darn cool for the middle and end of next week…

Euro 2

Check out how far below normal the temps are on the European Model…

Euro 3That’s darn impressive for much of the country and would really cement the cooler than normal July we have going on for many areas.

Have a great day and take care.

17 Comments

Keeping The Rain Hope Alive

Good Wednesday to one and all. A cold front is pressing southward across the state today and will deliver a breath of fresh air through Thursday. The next push of cooler air is likely to come our way next week and it has the potential to be similar to the 4th of July cool down. What about our rain prospects?

A couple of showers will be about the region today. Most areas will see a mix of sun and clouds with temps between 80 and 85 degrees. Winds will continue to be very gusty as cooler and less humid air swings in from the northwest.

Current temperatures

Thursday looks pretty good with partly sunny skies, low humidity and highs around 80 in the north to around 85 in the far west. I still can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm.

Friday will see temps back into the middle 80s for many. A few storms will be possible in the west as the humid air works back in. The threat for storms will increase over the weekend and we will have to watch for clusters of storms moving on from the northwest. Temps will spike into upper 80s for many.

A big change toward cooler is still in store for next week as the jet stream takes a dive into the eastern part of the country. The GFS is finally on board…

GFS

Check out how far below normal the temps are looking on the model for next Wednesday…

GFS 2

The models are also teasing us with a very soggy setup as the big trough settles in. Let’s hope that’s the case, because many areas are running on the dry side. The overall pattern continues to look like a frequent rain and storm producer going forward. That has been the case for the past month, but surrounding states have kind of hogged a lot of the rain.

Have a great day and take care.

15 Comments

Mother Nature Has A New Spokesperson

Good evening, everyone. Mother Nature has a brand new spokesman and he has a special message for the bluegrass state…

No rain for youCarry on and take care.

 

13 Comments

Severe Weather Tracker

Good Tuesday, Everyone. Rounds of thunderstorms are working across the bluegrass state and could cause some issues. Strong and severe storms are a good possibility today as a cold front moves into the region. I have the blog set to track all the action.

Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from today’s storms. A smaller tornado threat will also be with us. Torrential rains could be enough to cause some local high water issues.

Much cooler air comes in behind the front for the second half of the week. Things looks very pleasant during this time.

Rounds of storms will develop over the weekend into Monday ahead of a HUGE dip in the jet stream. Check out this bad boy…

EuroThat is one impressive blast of cool air and could surpass what we had around the 4th of July.

Let’s track…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

Follow me on twitter for the latest updates on the severe threat.

Take care.

33 Comments

Tracking Rounds Of Storms

Good Monday, everyone. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase today through the middle of the week. The rounds of storms may pack a severe weather punch and that’s what we are watching for later today. As always, I have the blog set up for your storm tracking needs.

Here’s a breakdown of the some things I’m watching for…

- Today should be another windy day with temps spiking into the mid and upper 80s ahead of developing showers and storms.

- Storms will increase from northwest to southeast and could be strong or severe by the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main players.

- Showers and storms will come at us in waves tonight through Wednesday. Any one round may be severe.

- Heavy rainfall is likely during this same time. That doesn’t mean it’s going to rain all the time, but you should get some healthy rains at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of areas pick up 1″ of rain over the next few days. Locally higher amounts are very possible.

- Cooler air moves in for the middle and end of the week. This won’t be as cool as our last shot, but the temps certainly look pleasant.

Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

Enjoy the day and take care.

16 Comments