Heavy Rain and Storms Tracker

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are rumbling across the bluegrass state… Again. Some of the storms could be on the strong side with more heavy rain across the board. All of this is on the cusp of some frosty air coming in for next week. More on that in a bit.

Let’s start with the soggy setup we have out there today.

Radar will look pretty wicked at times as showers and storms rotate around an area of low pressure lifting northward across the western Ohio Valley. Waves of storms come at us from the south and southwest this morning into the afternoon. A few could be on the strong side, but all will contain heavy rain.

The heavy amounts of rain could lead to some local high water issues.

If we break out into some sunshine this afternoon, our severe weather threat will increase. High winds and hail would be the primary threats from the storms that go up.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will then move through on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps eastward. Rainfall totals through Monday should average 1″-2″ for many areas. Higher amounts will be possible for those getting in on stronger storms.

Chilly air then pushes in from Tuesday through the rest of the week. Impulses rotating around the base of the trough may produce some small hail producing showers and storms by Wednesday or Thursday. Any night that has clear skies could turn frosty. As a matter of fact, many models are suggesting sub-freezing temps as a possibility…

GFS Temps

In the short term, it’s all about heavy rain and storms. I have you all set to do some tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

 

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A Stormy Sunday Ahead

Good Saturday, everyone. Today is shaping up to be a very nice weather day across the bluegrass state with some sun and warm temperatures. The focus of the forecast is on the potential for severe storms and heavy rains returning for Sunday.

The setup for tomorrow finds a big dip in the jet stream working in from the west…

Euro I’ve highlighted a large area most at risk for heavy rain and severe storms. That extends from the deep south into the Ohio Valley.

It appears we get one wave of strong storms and heavy rain to swing in from the southwest late Saturday night into Sunday morning. That would then be followed by additional storms developing later in the day. Those could be the ones to really ramp up on us. The NAM shows what I’m talking about…

NAMShowers and storms would then continue into Monday as a strong cold front moves through here. Temps behind that front will tank with highs by Tuesday only topping out around 60 degrees. Some upper 30s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday if we can clean the skies up.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will likely fire up up late next week through the weekend. That’s a setup that could produce some strong storms and heavy rains.

Does any of that surprise you? Didn’t think so.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Half and Half Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our weekend is ready to kick off with much better weather across the commonwealth of Kentucky. Warmer temps are surging in across the region today and that will come with MAINLY dry weather. Don’t get too used to it, showers and storms return to end the weekend.

Isolated showers and storms are possible today as temps climb into the mid and upper 70s. Winds will be very gusty.

Saturday looks even better with sunny skies and thermometers reaching the upper 70s for some. Clouds will increase as some scattered showers and storms return Saturday night into Sunday…

GFS

There is the potential for strong or severe storms on Sunday and that’s something we have to keep a close eye on. Those same storms my drop another inch or two of rain that can lead to additional high water issues.

A strong cold front then blasts through here on Monday, putting an end to the showers and storms. Much cooler air comes in behind that and we could even see some patchy frost by the middle of the week.

Another stormy and wet pattern then tries to develop late next week through the following weekend. The GFS 2 week rainfall forecast continues to look UGLY…

GFS Rain 2I leave you with some Friday tracking toys…

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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More Of The Same

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another day to keep the umbrellas handy as scattered showers and thunderstorms work across the bluegrass state. This action could put down some locally heavy downpours before we catch a small break in the action later Friday into early Saturday. Notice I say a small break.

Some areas could pick up a half to one inch, but many areas should stay well under that. Still, keep a close eye on creeks and streams since our ground is so soggy.

Friday should see temps surge into the 70s on a gusty southwesterly wind. Only an isolated shower or storm chance looks to be around during this time. That warm air hangs tough into Saturday as late day showers and storms increase from the southwest…

Euro

That would be followed up additional rounds of showers and storms swinging through here on Sunday…Euro 2

Much of the region should be able to pick up another inch or two, at least, of rain through Sunday night. We will continue to watch for high water problems during this time.

The pattern may dry out and cool down for the first half of next week…

GFS

That’s would be a welcomed site if it materializes. The problem may come later in the week as that big upper level low gets pushed back to the north just a bit as warm air develops across the southeast. That could put our region back into a heavy rain zone…

GFS 2

I leave you with your tracking toys…

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Additional Showers and Storms Ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our history making run of wet weather shows little sign of letting up in the weeks ahead. This will likely cause a lot of April rainfall records to fall and that could lead us into one of the wettest springs on record. To make matters worse… the pattern is also going to turn much cooler. Sigh

A few showers will be around today with the greatest chance across southern and eastern Kentucky. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Here’s what the GFS is seeing for rainfall by dark…

GFS

In between the showers, a few rays of sun will be possible with highs in the 60s.

Another round of showers and storms will increase from south to north on Thursday. There’s a chance we could see enough rain from that to create some more localized high water issues. Temps will make a run at 70 if we can get enough sun. The GFS shows some spots getting better than 1″ of rain through Thursday night…

GFS 2

Friday looks to be windy and warm with some scattered storms possible. I suspect we will see plenty of dry times as temps surge well into the 70s.

Showers and storms should then increase into the weekend. The first slug of moisture arrives on Saturday…

Euro

The European Model then brings more rounds of rain later Sunday into Monday…

Euro 2

I mentioned the potential for this pattern to turn much cooler. The GFS Ensembles are ugly for the rest of the month…

GFS 2 GFS 3

I leave you with regional radar to track any rains out there today…

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy Rain Tracker

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day of tracking heavy rain and potential flooding across the bluegrass state. Rounds of heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder continue to work from southwest to northeast across the region, and this could cause some flooding problems.

Some areas could pick up 1″-3″ of rain with the greatest concentration along and south of Interstate 64. This will be the area to really watch for the potential for flooding.

The showers decrease later today as temps stay on the cool side. Many of us may see temps struggle to get out of the 50s.

Similar temps will be noted on Wednesday with the chance for a shower or two.

Rounds of showers and storms will kick back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. That could lead to additional heavy rain and high water threats.

On  the overall scene, temps look cooler than normal with the potential for some outright chilly shots over the next few weeks.

Let’s get back to tracking the heavy rains we have today…

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Heavy Rain Threat Returns

Good Monday, everyone. Our gorgeous spring weekend is now in our rearview mirror and guess what’s showing up through the windshield? Wipers will be back to working overtime as rounds of showers and thunderstorms come calling yet again. This will bring the potential for more heavy rains that could cause some local water problems. Sigh.

Our day starts out dry with temps making a run toward 70 in many areas. The showers and thunderstorms will then sweep in from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and kick into high gear tonight. Heavy rains of an inch or two will be possible across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.

The new NAM shows pockets of higher amounts if we expand the view through Wednesday. Check out the rain numbers…

NAM

That same run is showing a pretty sharp cutoff with the heaviest rains on the northern side here in Kentucky.

More in the way of showers and thunderstorms will be with us in on and off fashion through the week and into the weekend. This is a VERY, VERY wet pattern from the lower Ohio Valley into the deep south…

Euro

Let’s do a little tracking…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking The Storms Return

Good Sunday, folks. The old saying “it doesn’t get much better than this” comes to mind with the weather we have out there today. A gorgeous sky and warm temps will combine to give us one amazing spring day across the commonwealth. Soak it up… scattered showers and storms return tomorrow. Yippee.

Highs today will reach the 70s with partly sunny skies. High clouds will stream in from the southwest and those will thicken as the evening wears on. Moisture from the south will then really increase into Monday with scattered showers and storms taking over.

The future radar from the NAM has the most widespread action late in the day…

NAM

If the NAM is right, some very heavy rain could fall on Monday.

Shower and storm chances may come down a little for Tuesday and Wednesday as temps hit the 70s. The pattern after that will turn stormy as a huge upper level low SLOWLY cruises our way from the west…

GFS

The progression and path of that upper level feature will make for some difficult forecasts during this time. The slower it moves, the longer we stay mild with just scattered storms until the low moves in. If it decides to get in here and slow down on top of us… heavier rain and cool weather would dominate.

This pattern for the next few weeks looks loaded with cutoff lows across the eastern part of the country. Those can bring some ugly, ugly spring weather.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Storms Take A Weekend Break

Good Saturday to one and all. We have some absolutely gorgeous weather across the bluegrass state for the next couple of days. This break in the stormy weather will have a short life span as storms return by Monday. Nothing has really changed with the overall pattern… it’s very stormy and very wet.

High temps today will hit the low and mid 60s for most areas with a partly sunny sky. Temps on Sunday look even better with 70s across the board. Some clouds will filter in later in the day and those clouds will eventually spit out thunderstorms for Monday…

Euro

This action is looking to be a little more widespread and a little more on the heavy side.

Another surge of showers and storms would then follow that up late Tuesday into Wednesday…

Euro 2

The late week setup continues to look very active with a slow-moving storm system rolling our way. This could bring additional rounds of some big boomers and more heavy rain…

Euro 3

The rainfall numbers for next week from the GFS…

GFS Rain

Let’s expand that out to the next two weeks…

GFS Rain 2There’s a lot of ugly ahead of us with heavy rain and storms. We may also get some chilly shots of air to join the mix through the rest of the month and into early May. Green thumbs, don’t get too overzealous. ;)

Have a good day and take care.

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A Weekend Break In The Storms

Good Friday, everyone. We’re FINALLY catching a break from the rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. This pattern has been tough to shake, but some nice weather is on the way for the upcoming weekend. Don’t let it spoil you… more storms move in for next week.

Early day showers and storms will move to the east very quickly this morning. Cooler and drier air moves in with some sunshine returning for the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60-65 degree range for many.

Low and mid 60s return for Saturday with mostly sunny skies. We’re back into the 70s to wrap up the weekend on Sunday. Winds will gust up with late day clouds on the increase. Those clouds will be ahead of another shower and thunderstorm maker that arrives on Monday…

Euro

A scattered shower or thunderstorm would then hang around into Tuesday. It’s later Wednesday through Thursday when things really start to get active. A surge of juice will move in from the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful system rolls across the plains states. That should throw a round or two of storms in here on Wednesday…

Euro 2

Thursday could feature severe weather and heavy rain if this setup is correct…

Euro 3

All of that is being pushed by a huge upper level system that threatens to cutoff across our region by the end of the week…

GFSThat would mean some windy, chilly and showery weather for our region. That’s nasty looking.

Enjoy your day and take care.

 

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