Time posted: 1:33 am

Storms To Battle The Steam

Good Wednesday to one and all. Temps are about to really steam it up over the next several days, but thunderstorms have the gloves on and are ready to put up a fight. As a matter of fact, the storms will likely win the battle by early next week.

Temps today will be in the upper 80s to around 90 in many areas with low/mid 90s in the west. Humidity levels will make it feel hotter than it actually is. There is a chance for a thunderstorm or two to dive in from the northwest…

The next few days are going to be hot ones, but there are many factors arguing against anything but a typical brand of July heat. The ground is wet, the grass is green, and we have lush vegetation. There’s the threat for storms diving in from the northwest, and even if they don’t, some debris clouds may filter in.

The west is going to be hottest, by far. Central and eastern parts of the state have a better chance of being impacted by some storms coming from the northwest…

Canadian

The heat index is going to be way up there, because this is a very tropical air mass. This is also the same heat ridge we started talking about more than a week ago. But, I am seeing some limiting factors potentially showing up.

The steamy air this weekend should also produce some scattered showers and storms. That action looks to really increase early next week as a healthy system develops across the region. The European Model is all over it…

Euro

The middle and end of next week finds the same model spitting out more showers and thunderstorms, with another system diving into the plains states…

Euro 2

There are some indications of a significant trough developing as we flip the calendar from July to August.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:20 am

Steam and Storms Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have another day filled with scattered showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the region. This action is along a weak front dropping in from the north. As the week wears on, steamy temps are going to increase, but thunderstorms aren’t going away.

You know the drill with today’s storms, any boomer that goes up can put down enough rain to cause local high water issues.

Track away…

Wednesday has a much lower risk for a shower or storm as humidity levels and temps drop just a bit.

The steam starts to really build in on Thursday, but we will have to watch for some thunderstorms developing. The NAM has this…

NAM

Other models show several clusters trying to develop and dive in from the northwest through Friday…

Canadian

Temps are totally dependent on when and where the storms are, obviously. The farther west you live, the higher the thermometer readings.

Heading into the weekend, the steam remains, with more storms floating around…

Euro 2

The European Model then develops a healthy system around here early next week. It brings even higher rain and storms chances and cooler temps…

Euro

Folks, this summer is having a very, very hard time giving us more than a day or two of normal heat. It’s a continuation of the past 3 summers around here.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:04 am

Tracking More Storms To Start The Week

Good Monday to one and all. A few rounds of thunderstorms will impact the region today, and some of these could be strong to severe. The overall setup looks to throw additional rounds of storms our way, even has hotter times try to develop.

Today’s storms drop in from the north and northwest and may contain high winds and hail. Any storm that goes up may also be loaded with heavy rain and lightning. That heavy rain can lead to local high water issues. I will have your tracking tools in a moment.

A few more storms may impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday as very steamy air moves our way for the end of the week. Even as temps and humidity levels rise, the thunderstorm threat remains. As a matter of fact, the models have taken on much more of a stormy look for the weekend…

GFS

Storms firing up on the periphery of a big heat ridge can sometimes pack a severe weather punch. That’s something to watch for.

A weak trough looks to dig into the Mississippi Valley early next week. That may fuel more storms…

Euro 2

The next two weeks worth of rain from the GFS show a very active thunderstorm pattern rolling on…

GFS 2

That’s especially true when you consider individual thunderstorms can deliver a lot more rain than that in a short period.

I have you all set to track today’s storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Strong Storms Possible The Next Few Days

Good Sunday, everyone.  Even when we are catching a “break” in the stormy pattern, we aren’t really catching a real break. Scattered storms dumped heavy rain across southeastern Kentucky on Saturday, while the rest of the state faired better. Much of today is dry, but scattered storms may try to pop before all is said and done.

This will lead is into a setup that can feature strong to locally severe storms Monday and Tuesday.

The NAM is cranking out a few rounds of boomers across central and eastern parts of the state. It shows one diving in here during the daylight hours Monday…

NAM

That sets the stage for a potentially stronger cluster of storms to move in from the northwest at some point Monday night into early Tuesday…

NAM 2

In addition to the potential for strong to severe storms, the flash flood threat is going to increase. Given how much flooding our region has experienced over the past month, it won’t take much to create more issues.

Heat and humidity really tries to build in later this week, but, once again, storms may end up playing the part of spoiler…

Canadian

Speaking of storms, let’s track anything that goes up out there today…

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:07 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Saturday to one and all. We have some better weather blowing into the region over the next couple of days. This nice weather won’t hang around too long as storms roll back in early next week. Those storms may introduce a much hotter pattern before next week is over.

Today will feature a few scattered storms going up across the south and east. Areas farther north will feature mainly dry conditions with 80s across the entire state.

Sunday looks good with mid and upper 80s for many. 90 will show up in the west.

Upper 80s to low 90s are a good bet on Monday as the threat for some storms increase. These storms will continue on Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest…

Canadian

Strong to severe storms will be possible during this time.

Hotter weather moves in later next week into the weekend. Much of the country should see much above normal temps, but the core of the heat will stay to our west…

GFS TEMPS 1

I promised to give you some fall and winter thoughts, but the storms over the past week kept me busy. Now that things have calmed down some, let’s do this.

This is the time of year I start to focus on some of the large scale signals forecast to show up for the fall and winter. We are coming off a super El Nino and many of the seasonal models have been forecasting a La Nina to develop this year. So far, the La Nina is REALLY struggling to get started, and those same seasonal models are now backing off on it.

The latest JAMSTEC seasonal model shows a neutral signal to, perhaps, weak La Nina forming this winter. It does so in the middle of a very warm Pacific. Here’s the December-February look at ocean temps…

Japan Model

Two things I’m watching. The potential for a low end La Nina, and a continuation of the very warm water off the west coast and into the Gulf Of Alaska. This +PDO signal has been one there for the majority of the past 3 winters, and is showing up very well for the winter ahead. As you know, I have maintained that signal has been the driving force for our past three wild winters around here. Last year’s super Nino muted the signal to a point, but it still produced another historic snowstorm with several other good snows.

Can we make it 4 in a row with memorable winter weather? The same run from the JAMSTEC shows colder than normal weather for much of the country from December-February…

Japan Model 2

While all of this is obviously VERY early in the ballgame, the forecast signals in the Pacific Ocean certainly argue for another fun winter.

I’ll talk about some of the initial analog years over the next few weeks.

Make it a great day and take care.

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