Time posted: 1:09 am

Big Changes On The Way

Good Saturday, everyone. We have another front touching off scattered showers and storms out there today, but the focus of the forecast is on big changes coming next week. We are going back into the fall-like pattern we had for the first half of August. Can this one just go ahead and lead into an early fall? Maybe.

Highs today are in the 80s with scattered showers and storms going up. Here are your radars to track the action…

I can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm on Sunday with temps deep into the 80s.

Solar eclipse day continues to look very steamy with the chance for a few clouds getting into the region. Here’s the latest cloud forecast from the GFS…

The NAM…

The most fascinating thing to me about all this is the drop in temps as the eclipse is occurring. Temps may tumble by more than 10 degrees as we lose the sun for a while.

Beyond the eclipse comes a big change for the middle and end of next week. A strong cold front drops in from the northwest with an increase in showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday…

Temperatures come way down behind this front for the second half of next week into next weekend. We may string together another extended run of highs in the 70s…

Can this just go ahead and lead us into a full-blown early start to fall? The CFS has been showing that for some time now, and the GFS Ensembles are showing the below normal going through early September…

By the way, the CFS keeps showing some significant cool periods for September…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:25 am

Watching The Weekend and Eclipse Day

Good Friday to one and all. We have a cold front pressing across the state today, bringing a more comfortable brand of air into the region. This should make for a decent weather weekend for many. Monday is our big solar eclipse day and I’m watching some clouds trying to crash the party.

Showers and storms early today will move away, leaving us with afternoon sunshine…

Lower humidity levels work in this afternoon and evening, making for an AWESOME start to the high school football season. Temps will generally be in the 70s with a nice breeze blowing from the northwest.

Our Saturday storm chance is rather small and comes at the end of the day. The best threat is across northern parts of the state.

The forecast for Eclipse Day Monday continues to be for a mix of sun and clouds, with a very small storm chance. Here’s the latest cloud forecast from the GFS…

Showers and storms increase by Tuesday and Wednesday as we see a deep trough engulfing the eastern half of the country. This brings is much cooler than normal temperatures for the second half of next week into the following weekend…

The long range European Ensembles from WeatherBell show our wetter than normal summer working overtime into September…

It’s also interesting to see that same model showing some good snows in the Rockies and early season flakes flying across much of Canada…

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Strong Storms Possible Today

Good Thursday, everybody. We have a strong cold front working into the state today, bringing the potential for a line of strong thunderstorms. Behind this front, a more comfortable brand of air rolls in here for the upcoming weekend. Can that better weather hold into eclipse day? That’s the million dollar question.

Scattered storms are possible early today, with a line of storms rolling across the state later this afternoon and evening. Instability ahead of this line will depend on just how much sun we can see. The more instability, the better the chance for high winds and hail.

Regardless, the atmosphere is loaded with moisture, so torrential rains are a good bet. This can cause some local flash flood issues to develop.

Here are the tracking tools for the day…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

A few leftover showers and storms linger into the first half of Friday, but things improve as the day wears on. Humidity levels and temps start to come down, setting the stage for a pretty nice start to the high school football season.

Another weak system dives in from the northwest later Saturday, bringing the chance for a shower or thunderstorm..

From here, we really begin to focus on eclipse day Monday. We continue to see the chance for a few clouds and isolated showers and storms going up at some point in the afternoon. The latest GFS cloud forecast…

Beyond that, showers and storms increase Tuesday into Wednesday. This is ahead of what appears to be another prolonged push of below normal temps. The GFS…

The Canadian…

Make it a great day and take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 1:31 am

Tracking An Increase In Storms

Good Wednesday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are going to be with us for the next several days, and may cause a few issues. With very high humidity in place, we need to be on guard for heavy rains that can bring local high water issues through Friday.

Today’s showers and storms will increase during the afternoon and evening, with the central and west seeing the greatest threat…

A cold front approaches the region from the northwest on Thursday. This will bring a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms, and some could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has a low risk for severe in our region…

Once again, it’s the torrential rain threat that can cause flash flooding in a few spots.

Those showers and storms will slowly wind down from west to east as the day wears on. Much of that action should be gone by the time we kick off the high school football season that evening. Any slow-down in the front would alter my thinking. 😉

A northwesterly flow kicks in over the weekend with another system dropping in from the northwest. This arrives late Saturday with a few gusty showers and storms…

Temps this weekend will come down several degrees and it should feel pretty decent.

The big solar eclipse weather picture is still a bit muddled with some model runs showing clear skies and others showing some clouds and rain chances. The new GFS is in the scattered shower and storm threat…

That may be followed by a strong cold front by the middle of next week, with another round of cooler than normal temps behind it…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:24 am

Tracking More Showers and Storms

Good Tuesday to one and all. Scattered continues to be the name of the weather game over the next few days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to press across the region, with a bit of an increase later in the week.

The best chance for rain today is across the southeastern part of the state. This area picked up heavy rains on Monday and could see some local high water issues. Scattered showers and storms will be noted elsewhere…

An area of showers and storms will impact the region Wednesday into Wednesday night…

This sets the stage for a cold front to swing in here Thursday into early Friday. This is when showers and storms become a bit more widespread…

With the muggy environment, watch for some heavy rain makers than can cause local high water issues in the coming days.

Cooler air settles in for the weekend, but another system dives in with a shower or storm threat on Saturday…

Eclipse Day is Monday and the models are still a few days away from getting a true handle on the setup. Still, I’m watching a weak boundary across the region that could spit out some clouds and isolated showers and storms…

We will start getting into fall and winter talk over the next week or so. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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