Time posted: 1:09 am

More Rain On The Way

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a flat out awesome weather day in progress across our part of the world. That’s a sentence I haven’t been able to say often over the past month, but we will take whatever we can get. Enjoy it… heavy rain returns on Friday.

My thought process on the current setup hasn’t changed much at all. Rain and some thunder returns on Friday and takes us into the start of the weekend. The models are all over the place with where the heaviest rains fall.

The NAM

NAM 2

Hi Res NAM through Friday night only…

NAM

Canadian

Canadian

Then we have the GFS being the GFS…

GFS

The showers become less concentrated late Saturday and should taper off by Sunday. While eastern Kentucky could still see a shower, much of Sunday looks dry. Highs hit the 70s.

Warmer air surges in early next week with temps hitting the 80s…

GFS TEMPS 1

Some thunderstorms jump back into the mix by the middle of the week…

GFS 2

The long range call is still for temps to really climb late next week into Memorial Day Weekend. Can we get a 90? It’s possible…

GFS TEMPS 2

Make it a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:19 am

A Small Break In The Rain

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a small break in the rain on the way late today into Thursday. I suggest you get out and enjoy it because another round of rain and storms is ready to pounce. Sigh.

Rain is out there this morning and it could be heavy at times. This action moves out this late today with some rays of sun possible. Highs today will generally be in the 60s.

Thursday will find temps in the 70-75 degree range for many areas under mostly sunny skies.

Here comes the rain again on Friday, with some thunderstorms joining the mix…

Euro

Heavy rains will carry us into Saturday morning with just a few showers lingering into the afternoon. A small shower chance will be with us on Sunday as a huge upper low spins just to our east…

Euro 2

MUCH warmer air moves in next week toward Memorial Day Weekend. This is a pattern that can flirt with 90 degrees at some point…

GFS TEMPS 1

It’s also a pattern complete with humidity and the threat for thunderstorms will still be with us…

GFS

Enjoy the day and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:05 am

Our Ugly May Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. There’s nothing merry about the month of May across the bluegrass state. Rounds of heavy rain and chilly temps have been common, and that’s exactly what we have out there today. Looking ahead, even heavier rain moves in to start the upcoming weekend. Sigh.

We have a big temperature spread from north to south setting up today. Many areas may not get out of the 50s, but temps across the south and west may flirt with 70. The heaviest rainfall will be located near the Interstate 64 corridor, with some areas picking up 1″-2″ of rain through tonight.

Track away:

Early day rains on Wednesday slowly push out with some afternoon clearing trying to kick in. Temps warm into the mid and upper 60s, but that’s still well below normal.

Thursday is THE pick weather day of the week and maybe for the next week. Highs hit the 70s with dry skies. Soak it up!!

Heavy rain and thunderstorms return on Friday as a slow-moving system crosses our region. This should keep showers going into early Sunday…

Euro

That could drop an additional 1″-3″ of rain across our region. Some high water issues may again be possible.

The GFS is just now seeing the weekend system (shocker), but is showing some impressive totals through Sunday…

GFS Rain

The pattern after this weekend does skew warm and humid as we go into next week, but the threat for thunderstorms will continue to be with us.

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:35 am

Tracking Rain and Looking Ahead

Good Monday to one and all. Rain is on the way back into the state, as our soggy spring pattern rolls on. The rain comes at us in waves early this week, then again late in the week. I’ll take a look at that, and we will focus on what may come our way this summer and beyond.

Today starts with a touch of frost in a few spots and ends with rain increasing from west to east through the evening. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible tonight into Tuesday with locally heavy rain at times.

The rain takes a break from late Wednesday into Thursday, but crashes back in Friday and Saturday…

Euro

The European Model is adamant about keeping a closed upper level low on top of this this weekend into early next week. If that’s the case, unsettled weather will be a good bet. Given the pattern of the past month, there’s no reason to argue with that potential.

What about the summer ahead? The current computer based analogs for the summer ahead…

Analogs

We have talked a lot about how stable the overall pattern has been for the past several yeas, and look at what show up, each of the past 2 summers. We know how each of those turned out… wetter than normal with normal to below normal temps.

2003, 1998 and 1992 were all very wet and cooler than normal.

1983 bucked the trend and was very dry and hot with 100 degree heat.

Given the current analogs and trends, the odds seemed to be for another wet summer without much heat. I tend to lean that way, but we will need to watch for some real deal late summer heat building in.

The wild card in all this is the transition from our super El Nino to a La Nina…

JMA 2

Many of the models are forecasting a moderate La Nina to develop for the fall and winter months. You can see that well on this map…

JMA 1

In a normal La Nina, the waters along the west coast of North America usually turn cool, as well. The model above is forecasting that water to remain warmer than normal, similar to what we have seen in the past 3 winters. If a moderate La Nina develops and the water off the west coast stays warmer than normal… that will be something we have not seen in modern recorded history. This could be another fall and winter without a true analog to match.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 1:32 am

Another Wet Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weekend is about as cold as you can get for the middle of May with much below normal temperatures. Upper 40s were common Saturday afternoon. As this round of cold pulls out of town, the rain train is ready to roll back in.

The week ahead is likely to give us the potential for additional high water issues as waves of rain and storms move through.

This all gets started Monday afternoon and evening as rains increase from west to east. A boundary will be stalled across the region through Tuesday, and that spells trouble…

NAM 2

The NAM rainfall forecast for Monday and Tuesday is ugly…

NAM 3

1″-3″ of rain will be possible during this time. Given how wet things have been of late, that could be enough to cause some local high water issues.

The rain may take a bit of a break later Wednesday into Thursday, but comes roaring back by Friday…

Euro

That could be another round of heavy rain and thunder that lasts into the coming weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some areas pick up 4″ or more of rain over the next week.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

4 Comments