Watching The Week Ahead

Good Sunday evening, folks. We have a very interesting week of weather ahead of us. It’s a period that looks increasingly likely to throw a winter storm in our direction. Wednesday and Thursday have the potential to be very wintry around here.

I’ve been highlighting this threat for a while, and the models are now beginning to settle in on the potential. The European Model from earlier today gave a nice smackdown sleetstorm and snowstorm to much of our region. The NAM only goes out through Wednesday night, but is also going strongly in that direction…

NAM

Now THAT is one heck of a look! A very slow moving arctic boundary with waves of low pressure riding along it could produce a ton of precipitation.

The GFS goes back and forth with what it wants to do. It is probably the moodiest model I’ve ever seen. The late afternoon run is picking back up on the potential and shows this for the pure snowfall…

GFS Snow

Again, the GFS is still trying to figure out the setup and that map does not include the sleet potential. As always, don’t take exact amounts and placement to heart from 3 days out.

The folks at the Weather Prediction Center are beginning to come to gripes with the potential for this system to develop. Here’s where they are showing the potential for 4″ or more of snow during the daylight hours Wednesday…

WPC

I’m not sure why the lines are so disconnected, but whatever.

Let’s what the overnight model runs bring.

Between now and then… watch for some icy roads later tonight and early Monday as temps drop into the 20s. Some areas of freezing drizzle and light snow will try to develop during this time.

Tuesday into Tuesday night will see temps spike briefly. That will bring the potential for heavy rain producing showers and some rumbles of thunder.

See you back here for a full update late tonight. Take care.

 

56 Comments

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another ugly weather day in the bluegrass state. A chilly rain is combining with low clouds to usher in March with a case of the “blahs”. As we head into the first full week of the month, big temp swings, heavy rain and another shot from Old Man Winter are on the way.

A modified arctic front moves in tonight and knocks our temps well below freezing with some very light snow or flurries for a time. Readings dropping through the 20s = slick travel developing from refreezing. Keep that in mind if you’re going to be travelling into early Monday.

Temps begin to increase on Tuesday as a warm front lifts to our north. Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet and that could cause some local high water issues.

We have a strong arctic cold front moving in on Wednesday and that will spawn a couple of waves of low pressure along it. The timing of the front in relation to these low pressure system will be the determining factor between more heavy rain and healthy winter storm.

Most of the modelling is leaning toward the winter solution with the waves of low pressure developing just to our east and southeast then riding along the front. The European Model continues to be super duper impressed with this setup and is spitting out a TON of winter precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night. This map isn’t JUST as snow map and likely incorporates a lot of sleet into the mix…

Euro 2

Again… that is NOT a pure snowfall map and it’s only one run of one model. It’s important to look at the trends of the models and the overall setup. That setup, to me, is one that is likely to produce a swath of significant winter weather across our part of the world.

We have a few days to watch and see how this thing sets up.

The cold coming in behind whatever we get from that is impressive. The European Model…

Euro

If I could find my white flag in all the snow still on the ground… I would wave it.

Take care.

57 Comments

Wild Weather Swings On The Way

Good Sunday, everyone. March is off and running with a wintry mix and light rain across our part of the world. This is a sign of things to come for the week ahead as we have a little of everything on the way. This is all courtesy of a wild temperature ride on the way for the first week of March.

Our morning wintry mix and snow may cause some travel issues across the northern parts of the state. That’s where temps will struggle to get into the low and mid 30s today. Areas across the south and west will hit the 40s with a few showers around.

Those numbers will come down for Monday as a cold front swings through here. Here are the highs…

GFS Temps

That could be accompanied by some early day snowflakes.

The next storm system cranks up to our west later Tuesday and that brings us a better chance for showers and some thunder. The models continue to come in with lower rainfall numbers, but some local high water issues would be possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

That’s also the period we are likely to see a nice temp spike and an even bigger temperature crash. Check this out…

GFS Temps 2

That would be your standard 30-40 degree temperature drop as an arctic front sweeps through here. That front is likely to have another wave of low pressure along it and that could produce a swath of decent winter weather somewhere across our region. The European Model…

Euro

That’s a setup to watch closely in the coming days.

High temps behind that system by Thursday are super cold for early March…

GFS Temps 3

Highs of 30 degrees below normal? That’s impressive.

I will have updates later today. Until then, let’s track…

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Take care.

28 Comments

A Wild First Week Of March On The Way

Good Saturday, everyone. February is closing out on a frigid note and that comes as a shock to absolutely no one. This has been a legendary month of winter weather across the bluegrass state. What about the start of March? Things are looking wild as we have a TON of weather on the way over the next several days.

A series of storm systems will roll across the region starting Sunday and each of these will deliver a lot of different weather. Everything from freezing rain to rain to high water to thunder to snow and sleet will all be possible in the coming days.

We start to get the first system to throw precipitation our way later tonight and early Sunday. This will be in the form of a mix of freezing rain and rain with some snow possible in the north. All that may change to plain rain during the day Sunday, but go back to a mix or some light snow Sunday night and early Monday. That’s when temps drop again behind a front that sags southward through the region.

That front then slowly lifts to the north as a warm front on Tuesday. Overrunning moisture from this may be in the form of freezing rain to start the day. Here’s the NAM…

NAM

The GFS also shows the freezing rain…

GFS

Temps will BRIEFLY spike late Tuesday into early Wednesday. That’s when heavy rain and some thunderstorms could blossom across the region. It’s during this time we will have to keep watch on our waterways for the potential of high water issues developing.

A strong cold front will then swing in here on Wednesday as a wave of low pressure develops along it…

GFS 2

That scenario has been showing up with each and every run of the GFS in recent days. Most of the other forecast models have something similar. Here’s where the GFS spits out winter precipitation…

GFS Snow

Told ya there were a lot of possibilities on the table for next week. ;) Let’s sit back and see how many of them come to pass.

I have a busy day of events on tap, but will try to update at some point. I will be tweeting thoughts as needed.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

40 Comments

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We’re putting the wraps on an absolutely frigid Friday in the bluegrass state. It’s a day that started out near zero for many and could only hit the low and mid 20s for afternoon highs. That’s less than HALF of our normal high of 50 degrees.

The final day of the month will start with single digits… again. It’s a fitting day to wrap up one of the coldest and snowiest Februaries on record!

March rolls in like a lion on Sunday with the first of 3 active weather systems to impact our region. A wintry mix and rain will push in early in the day and continue through Monday as temps oscillate. The Canadian and European Models show the areas with the best chance at picking up on the wintry stuff…

Canadian

Canadian

European

Euro

The system that follows that up will bring much more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder possible Tuesday into Wednesday. The models are backing away from the heavy rain just a bit, but we will still have to watch for enough to cause some high water problems.

Another arctic front swing in late Wednesday into Thursday with a wave of low pressure along it. A HUGE temp drop is likely in just a matter of hours and that’s when we may see a decent shot of winter weather. Watch the increase in the winter precipitation forecast on the same models from above…

Canadian

Canadian 2

European

Euro 2

Take those maps with a grain of salt from this far out. I’m just showing them to illustrate the potential winter weather aspect as we go through next week.

Arctic air will follow up whatever we end up getting. If we can put down additional snow and ice accumulations like the European Model is showing, then temps can get out of control again…

Euro 3

Happy first week of March!

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

17 Comments

A Messy Start To March Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. Our frigid February is just about to come to and end and it’s all eyes on the month of March. It’s a month that is usually a very fickle month and probably my least favorite weather month of the entire year. The first week of March will illustrate why I think that way as we have some ugly, ugly stuff ahead.

Thermometers starting out our Friday will be near zero in the far north and in the low teens across the south. Highs today range from the upper teens north to mid 20s south. Yippee!

Saturday will start out with… wait for it… wait for it… some single digits! Afternoon temps hit the mid 20s in the north to the low 30s in the west and south. At least we have a little bit of sunshine. :)

A super duper busy pattern then takes shape to usher in the 3rd month of the year. Our first system arrives Sunday and continues into Monday and should bring a wintry mix and rain. Watch the back and forth transition on the GFS…

GFSThat’s just ugly and a setup that will feature oscillating temperatures from north to south.

The Canadian Model is colder and has more frozen precipitation during this time…

Canadian

The next storm system rolls in later Tuesday and Wednesday and has much more of a heavy rain threat with it. The action may start out as a mix in the north on Tuesday, but gusty winds will blow a brief spike in temperatures into our region. Some thunder will be possible, but the greatest threat will be from the heavy rain.

Another storm system is likely to form on a VERY strong cold front moving in here later Wednesday and early Thursday. The GFS has been showing this very well for several runs in a row…

GFS 2

GFS Snow

The Canadian Model is also picking up on that to a lesser extent…

Canadian 2

Early this week I said next week had a lot of possibilities and you are seeing that now playing out on the computer forecast models. Let’s just sit back and see where we go. Personally, I’m cheering on sunny and 80. Oh wait… that’s not an option.

I will update things later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.

 

35 Comments

Flakes Ushering In Arctic Air

Good evening, folks. Thanks for dropping by the blog on what has been the busiest month in KWC history. The server I pay for laughs at your millions of page views! :)

A band of light snow and flurries continues to push in on the leading edge of arctic air. Some light accumulations will be possible as temps drop quickly into the teens…

Wind chills will drop into the single digits during the evening and go well below zero for some tonight. Actual lows will range from near zero in the north to the low teens in the south and southeast.

It’s cold Friday and Saturday. ‘Nuff Said.

A light mix and rain moves in with our first system Sunday into Monday. Temps will oscillate during this time as a front remains draped across the region.

Heavy rain and wind will accompany a bigger system on Tuesday and early Wednesday. That one could cause some high water issues.

Another system tries to develop along another arctic boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. This one may take on much more of a wintry look…

GFS

Check out the blast of cold air coming behind that bad boy…

GFS 2

I would call those temperatures solidly below normal!

I’ve been trying to hit the fact that next week will feature a lot of precipitation. Our waterways are full and we have snow still to melt, so we will need to watch the high water potential. The latest numbers from the GFS…

GFS Rain Have a great day and take care.

13 Comments

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. Our sideswipe snow put down hit and run accumulations across southeastern Kentucky last night and early this morning. Up to 5″ fell in areas along the Virginia border counties. The rest of our day will be dominated by some snow showers and flurries as arctic air filters back in.

Temps tonight will head back toward the single digits for some and  we can expect something similar for Saturday morning. Highs Friday will be in the upper teens and low 20s on a day when 50ish is normal. Think about that one and give this weather the proper appreciation.

The busy pattern cranks back up Saturday night into Sunday morning as moisture returns from the west and southwest. A wintry mix will be possible during this time…

GFS

That sets the stage for a mix and rain from Sunday into Monday as the first system works eastward across the region.

The next low is going to try to work just to our west and north and deliver us a brief spike in temperatures for Tuesday and early Wednesday. Heavy rain, gusty winds and thunder will be possible during this time.

Winter quickly returns later Wednesday and Thursday as arctic air pushes back in from the north. There is some indication that another area of low pressure develops along this to our south and east…

GFS 2

That could make things rather interesting around here and into the Ohio Valley as our temps plummet.

Spring lovers (and that includes myself), look away…

CFS

That’s the Weatherbell CFS temp departure between now and April 12. But, I thought true spring was supposed to arrive next week? Isn’t that what we’re being told? ;)

Have a great day and take care.

27 Comments

Tracking Another Wintry Day

Good Thursday, everyone. Snow is working quickly across southeastern Kentucky to begin the day. This is part of the big southern snowstorm that’s just grazing the state with accumulating snows. Arctic air is pouring in behind this storm and will be with us to close out the month of February.

Snow showers and flurries will fly around the state today as the arctic air moves in. Temps will drop into the 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder than that. Temps by Friday morning will range from the single digits in the north to the teens in the south.

Friday is a cold day with upper teens to low 20s for highs in parts of the region. That’s just absurd for this time of year.

Our weekend starts cold and ends ugly. Saturday should start with a few single digits with 20s during the afternoon as clouds increase. Those clouds are ahead of a very active and ugly setup from Sunday through the first week of March.

A wintry mix is possible on Sunday as the precipitation moves in…

GFS

From there, a couple of systems will impact our region through the middle of next week. These will roll right across the region and each could bring some interesting weather. A temp spike is possible ahead of each of them with heavy rain and thunder. Temps then drop behind each of them with some wintry mix. Regardless… the second half of the week features the return of very cold air…

GFS Temps

Nothing says spring like below freezing temps all the way into the Gulf of Mexico! ;)

Let’s do some winter weather tracking to start the day…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Updates will come later today. Take care.

33 Comments

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our southern winter storm continues to crank and will deliver a glancing blow of snow across southern and eastern Kentucky. I will get you all set to track that here in just a bit.

I want to touch briefly on the setup from late Sunday through next week. I mentioned the models would try to trend colder and farther south with the overall setup during this time and that’s what we’ve been seeing. To illustrate that point, check out frozen precipitation forecast from the European Model.

Here’s the run from last night…

Euro 2Notice how the swath of snow and frozen stuff was well into the Great Lakes over the next week. Now check out the run from this morning…

EuroThat’s a big shift to the south with the heaviest action and now gets it all the way south of the Ohio River.

All of that comes with a series of systems rolling across the region. Some may roll right on top of us with mainly rain and a brief temp spike. Some might roll just to our south with more of a wintry flavor. The point I’m trying to make is… there is NOTHING “springy” about that look!

Let’s get you all set to track the action moving into the south and east…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Enjoy the evening and take care.

19 Comments