Time posted: 2:12 am

Buckle Up For The Ride

Good Tuesday to one and all. Near record high temperatures are blowing across the bluegrass state on a strong southwesterly wind. This wind will eventually blow in some rather dramatic changes over the next few days. This will include our best rain chance since August, and the coldest air of the young fall season.

Highs today will generally range from 80-85 with winds gusting to 25mph at times. That said, I can see how we get isolated showers and storms to pop across the region.

A cold front nears from the north on Wednesday and could touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms…


Winds will be very gusty with upper 70s to low 80s in many areas.

A powerful cold front then sweeps into the region on Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will pick up 1″ of rain through Friday as the rains slowly move east. Winds will be very gusty as temps tank…


That could produce the first flakes of the season across the highest West Virginia mountains.

Check out the temps behind that front…


With a northwesterly wind flow aloft, we could see another weak shower maker skirting the area at some point Saturday…


The European Model has another weak system on Monday…


Temps will rebound early next week ahead of another potent weather maker. The setup for a big storm system is on the table. Here’s the European Model for next Wednesday and Thursday…


The GFS also has a big signal for that same time…


Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 2:39 am

Tracking A Major Fall Cold Front

Good Monday, folks. Temperatures continue to run on the very, very, very, very warm side for this time of year. If you’re a fan of this, soak it up over the next couple of days, a big time cold front is on the way. This may give us the best rainfall we’ve had since August to go along with some real deal October chill.

Highs today and tomorrow will continue to run between 80 and 85 degrees on a gusty southwesterly wind. I have an interesting parallel to this setup in a bit.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms increase from the northwest on Wednesday as winds continue to crank. Rain chances go up Wednesday night through early Friday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 1″ amounts. Winds will be very gusty as the temps tank…


This is a typical October blast of chill with temps mainly in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with the potential for some frost if skies clear by Saturday morning. I’m not sure that’s the case, because another disturbance will try to dive in here from the northwest. That may even touch off a Saturday shower.

Temps will moderate a few days later, but additional action will likely follow next week.

I mentioned an interesting parallel to the current setup across the country. Back in the middle of October 1962, the Pacific northwest was hit by a powerful storm similar to the one from the past few days. Here’re the upper levels from then…


Here’s the current pattern (with a different scale)…


The similar pattern back in October 1962 gave us several days with highs in the low to middle 80s… similar to what we have now.

Correlation or not aside, the winter of 1962/63 was among the coldest on record in Kentucky. Other notable storms hit the Pacific northwest in 1995 and 1981. Each of the following winters were also colder than normal around here. I was especially interested in seeing 1995 because that’s a year I’ve been looking at already.

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 2:42 am

A Wild Temp Ride Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Temperatures over the next few days will be about as warm as you can get for this time of year. This very warm surge of air will take start the week, but a huge drop in thermometers will the sweep in for the end of the week. From record highs to frost? That’s certainly a possibility.

Temps today through Tuesday will range from 80-85 in many locations. Winds will be very gusty from the southwest, with just a few clouds from time to time.

The drastic weather changes start on Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop and move in during the day. This happens as the jet stream takes a big dip into the eastern part of the country. At the same time, something of a tropical nature (named or not) tries to develop off the southeast coast.

The model runs have been dancing around a bit with how this all plays out. The new GFS has more of a merger of these systems to our east, but still brings a nice shot of rain and the coldest air of the season…


That scenario would likely produce frost Friday night and Saturday night with highs from 55-60. Quite the change from where we are now, eh?

The previous run of the GFS had more of a cutoff look to this system…


This scenario would certainly mean a lot more rain and wind for us, to go along with very chilly temperatures.

That’s a look also seen on the latest run of the Canadian model…


We shall see how it goes in the coming days. But, a pretty wild temperature ride is ahead of us.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


Time posted: 1:13 am

Pattern Slowly Comes To Life

Good Saturday, everyone. While things have been rather calm over the past 6 weeks or so, our pattern is about to become very active. As a matter of fact, it’s really getting my attention for a potential early start to winter as we roll into November and December.

Let’s begin with today. A couple of showers will be located across the region, but a lot of dry times will be noted. Temps will be deep into the 70s on a strong southwesterly wind. 80 is likely in the west and far south.

The weather from Sunday-Tuesday looks windy and very warm. Daytime highs will run from the upper 70s to low 80s as winds continue to gust up from time to time.

The setup for the end middle and end of the week continues to look rather potent. We will have a big dip in the jet stream dropping toward our region. At the same time, something tropical may try to develop near Florida. There’s the chance these two interact. How, and if, that transpires. means some wild fluctuations in model runs.

The Canadian currently has the wildest solution. Here it is at 500mb…


Here it is at the surface…


That shows a blast of very cold air into our region and has snow in the WV mountains. Several other models have shown similar solutions over the past few days. Among them is the European Model. However, the recent run of the model isn’t as robust with the initial storm…


That’s still a very deep trough that catches whatever system comes from near Florida, and develops it along the east coast…


Think of this… Next will start with 80 degree temps and could end with a frost or freeze threat, depending on how this system comes together. That transition should also give us our best rain chances since August.

Last week, I started talking about how blocking was showing up in pretty big fashion across the Arctic. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has turned severely negative recently and is forecast to remain there for a while…


You can see how it spent much of the summer and early fall deep into Positive territory. That is no longer the case, and that severely negative AO may keep going for a while. Hence, one of the reasons I’ve been looking at the potential earlier than normal start to winter.

While on the subject, let me share some work from Dr. Judah Cohen. Dr. Cohen has become very popular over the years for his forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Polar Vortex. He has some interesting theories about the buildup of October snow cover in Eurasia and how it may impact the winter ahead. Here are some of his latest thoughts:

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts

  • The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently strongly negative and is predicted to remain negative over the next two weeks.  The AO is predicted to trend positive towards neutral through the end of next week and then reverse and trend further negative.
  • The current negative AO is reflective of positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic especially north of Alaska and on the European side of the Arctic and negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) especially in the North Pacific sector. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently also negative but because the positive height anomalies in the North Atlantic side of the Arctic are closer to Scandinavia than Iceland/Greenland, the NAO is predicted to fluctuate around zero over the next two weeks.
  • With pressure/geopotential height anomalies predicted to remain positive across much of the Arctic and pressure/geopotential height anomalies predicted to remain negative across the NH mid-latitudes, the AO is likely to remain in negative territory into the foreseeable future.
  • With the AO firmly negative for the remainder of the next two weeks, this favors below normal temperatures across large portions of northern Eurasia including Europe and Siberia. However because North America will be dominated by mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies, temperatures will average above normal much of next week in eastern North America.  The following week with heights predicted to build once more near Greenland lower heights and temperatures are predicted for eastern North America for week two.
  • Eurasian snow cover is above normal but has currently stalled.  However both low sea ice and a persistent negative AO are favorable for the resumption of a more accelerated advance of Siberian snow cover. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter.
  • The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere look to remain relatively weak for the remainder of October, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US).


Check out the highlighted part above. Very interesting!


Have a great a great Sunday and take care.


Time posted: 2:45 am

Some Big Temp Swings On The Way

Good Friday, folks. We have a surge of some big time warm air ready to blow back into the bluegrass state. This will take up residence for a few days, but that’s just part of the wild. The setup for the second half of next week and beyond looks wild for totally different reasons.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will range from the mid 60s north to the low 70s south and west. This is also the area with the best chance for a shower or two to go up this afternoon…

A few showers will then lift northward tonight into Saturday as temps start to climb. Readings by the afternoon will surge deep into the 70s.

The next cold front stays just to our north on Sunday, allowing temperatures to really take off. Highs will flirt with 80 and should hit the low 80s early next week. Much of the eastern half of the country will be well above normal…


That air is ahead of a BIG system likely to crank for the middle and end of the week, and it’s one that could spawn a lot of rain and storms followed by colder air.

The European Model takes it a step further and tries to entrain a tropical system into the mix…



To show you how crazy that setup is, the first map starts on Wednesday and the last map is the following Sunday.

The GFS has a similar theme, minus the tropical system…


Have a great day and take care.