Here Comes Another Fall Front

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another potent cold front swinging into the state today and this will deliver another major blast of fall. The air coming in here for the upcoming week is likely to deliver some of the coolest air we’ve had since late spring.

Today’s front works from west to east with scattered showers and storms going up ahead of it. The actual boundary slides through here tonight with winds gusting up and temperatures tanking. The west and central parts of the state hit the 50s by Monday morning with the east, still dealing with the front, in the 60s.

Look at the Monday morning forecast numbers in the plains states…

NAM

That’s from the Hi Res NAM and really illustrates how cool of an air mass we’re talking about.

Mostly sunny skies and a gusty northwesterly wind settles in for Monday with highs in the 70s. From there, this is the pattern that sets up for the rest of the week…

Special 2

Cooler air continues to push in for Tuesday through Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. Overnight lows can drop into the upper 40s in some areas. All of this comes with a gorgeous, fall sky to go along with the pleasant temps.

The new CFS for the rest of August shows a cooler than normal look…

CFS 3

The “skewing warmer” idea keeps getting pushed back into September. Even there, the CFS is waffling between warmer and cooler. At this point, it’s pretty hard now to go against a cooler look. That’s been the setup since late summer of 2013 and really shows little signs of changing. This has been one stable pattern.

While on the subject of temps, my twitter followers may have noticed me going off on the official Lexington temperature at Blue Grass Airport… Again. The faulty temperature sensor was replaced last November and it worked like a charm until the past month. It’s now back to skewing daytime temps much warmer than surrounding sites and what the climatology of the site would suggest.

The site worked properly for a whopping 8 months after a very expensive fix. This go around, I’m not alone in trying to figure out what’s going on with the site. Some pretty big players are getting involved… Stay tuned!

I leave you with your Sunday tracking tools…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Even Cooler Temps On The Way

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We’ve had some awesome weather days across the region for the past several days. Another fall front is on the way later Sunday and this will bring even cooler air for the first half of the next week. We could see the coolest air since spring.

Today is another winner of a weather day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for many. Isolated showers and storms will be around the far west and south later in the day.

The next front arrives Sunday afternoon and evening with a  broken line of showers and storms…

GFSWinds will really gust up as this front moves through here, but the temps will steal the spotlight. Watch the temperature crash from Sunday into Monday…

GFS TEMPS 2Highs in the 70s should be common from Monday through Wednesday, at least. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 40s on a couple of mornings. Some of the model forecasts are pretty chilly…

GFS TEMPS 1All of this fits the pattern I’ve been describing for the past several months. Remember all those later Summer cool shots I’ve been talking about? They’re here!

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Fantastic Fall Weather Continues

Good Friday, everyone. I really don’t have a whole lot to say on a perfect day like today. This weather is about as good as you can get this time of year and it certainly has a fall flavor to it. That looks to continue into next week before some warmer changes try to show up.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 for much of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

High school football kicks off this evening and we couldn’t ask for better conditions. Kickoff temps will be in the low and middle 70s with 2nd half numbers dropping into the 60s. That’s unheard of for week one of the season!

Saturday looks great with high 70s and low 80s for highs with some high clouds on the increase. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that drops in here later Sunday and early Monday. Scattered showers and storms will be along and ahead of this front that ushers in another fall feel…

Euro

Highs for several days may not get out of the 70s with low temps all the way down into the 50-55 degree range. There’s the outside chance of the first upper 40s of the season showing up!.Yes, please!

I’ve been hinting at a warm stretch of weather at some point in late August or into early September, but the models keep pushing that back. I still like my call from a month ago of a prolonged period of warmth after Labor Day. The CFS has a warm look to it for September as a whole…

CFS

Make it a great day and take care.

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Another Taste Of Fall Sweeps In

Good Thursday, everyone. The dog days of summer are pretty much over and, for the third straight year, they gave us barely a whimper of heat. The weather pattern this month has had a pronounced fall look to it and there is no sign of that letting up over the next week, at least.

A strong cold front blasts across the region early today with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. Winds will be very gusty with highs only in the 70s. Skies will become partly sunny with very nice late day conditions taking shape.

This is one heck of a deep trough digging into our region today…

EuroLows by Friday morning should be in the mid and upper 50s for many areas with some fog. Afternoon temps will approach 80, but the latest guidance continues to come in a little cooler…

NAMEither way, it looks absolutely gorgeous as we kick off the high school football season. Game time temps will be around 75 with upper 60s showing up in the 2nd half. Sweatshirt weather already?

Saturday looks equally as nice with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows will be in the 50s with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. There is a small threat for a shower or thunderstorm in the west.

Another fall cold front marches in here late Sunday and Monday with a scattered shower or thunderstorm. That’s another potent trough digging into the region…

Euro 3Temps behind that will be much cooler than normal for much of the week… GFS TEMPS 1

Lows in the 50s with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s. How ’bout them dog days?

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Strong Cold Front

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have another strong cold front moving into the bluegrass state with showers and storms on the increase. As the threat for boomers goes up, the temperatures are getting ready to go down. Some more of the good stuff is on the way!

Today’s storms increase from west to east with heavy downpours and the potential for some strong storms. We will have to watch out for the possibility of high winds and hail. Your tracking tools in a bit.

The cold front swings through here early Thursday as showers and storms end from west to east. Temps will be held way down and you can see where the front is on the temperature departure map tomorrow afternoon…

Euro

A much better brand of air pushes in during the afternoon and evening as we dry things out. Highs stay in the 70s as skies slowly clear.

Friday’s weather starts in the 50s and ends with upper 70s and low 80s across the state…

Euro 2

While it looks dry for Friday, we have to watch for some low-level moisture hanging around and spitting out an isolated shower.

Saturday will see temps in the 80-85 degree range with partly sunny skies. Another front works in here late Sunday and Monday with an increase in scattered showers and storms. That should unleash another nice shot of air with readings solidly below normal…

Euro 3I leave you with your storm tracking tools…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

13 Comments

Cold Fronts On The Way

Good Tuesday, folks. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms working across the state over the next several days. All of this is part of a very busy pattern that will feature a couple of fall cold fronts working in over the next week. Let’s get after it!

Scattered showers and storms will be noted today with a lot of tropical humidity in the air. Any of these storms could be strong and drop some locally heavy rains. Highs will be in the muggy 80s.

That high humidity will be around again on Wednesday, but this time a strong cold front is being thrown into the mix. Strong to severe storms will be possible later in the day into the overnight as the front barrels in. This is a very impressive looking system for the middle of August…

CanadianShowers and storms will linger into Thursday with temps mainly in the 70s for highs. Winds will gust up as the front punches through with much cooler air coming in behind it. That means better weather should be with us Friday and Saturday with pleasant temps around.

Another fall front arrives later Sunday into Monday with more showers and storms…

GFS

Check out the much cooler than normal air sweeping in behind this front Sunday night into Monday…

GFS 4These fall fronts are very impressive for this time of year. This continues a trend we’ve seen around here for the past three summers.

I leave you with some tracking toys…

 

 

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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A Busy Week Of Weather

Good Monday, everybody. Here’s an oldie, but a goodie to start things out… Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be common across Kentucky this week. A very busy pattern for August is taking shape as we have no shortage of cold fronts to track.

Moisture increases today from south to north with a pipeline of juice setting up from the Gulf of Mexico into our region. Showers and thunderstorms will go up and a few could become strong. We will also have to watch for some local high water issues.

Scattered storms will be around again Tuesday with a tropical feel to the air. This humid and unstable atmosphere is likely to lead to some pretty big storms later Wednesday into Wednesday night. That’s when we see a powerful storm system race from the plains into the western Great Lakes. That drags a slow-moving fall cold front into our region with storms developing ahead of it…

NAM

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday with that kind of setup. This is a heck of a deep trough pushing the front in here…

Euro

Lingering showers and storms will hang around through Thursday as a wave of low pressure develops along the front. Much cooler air comes in behind this front, and with clouds and rain around, highs on Thursday may really struggle…

Euro 3

The weather for Friday into Saturday looks a little iffy for the start of the high school football season. Temps should be pleasant, but the threat exists for a shower or thunderstorm.

Another strong front approaches the region from the northwest later Sunday into early Monday…

Euro 2

Showers and storms should fire once again with cooler air coming in behind the front into early next week…

GFS Temps 2

This is one of the more consistent weather patterns I’ve ever seen around here. Very little has changed since the summer of 2013 and it just keeps on keepin’ on!

Let’s get back to today’s action and do a little tracking…

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

12 Comments

Storms Take Center Stage

Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and thunderstorms are getting ready to take on a starring role in our weather over the next week, at least. This happens as another fall cold front makes a run at the bluegrass state by the middle of the week. Yep… it’s getting active again.

Highs today will run in the middle 80s for many with some upper 80s showing up. A scattered shower or thunderstorm will also be possible.

Storm chances increase on Monday as a nice moisture supply increases from the Gulf of Mexico…

NAM

Heavy rainfall is possible with this flow. That trend continues into Tuesday as we await the arrival of our next fall cold front. This looks like a pretty potent system coming out of the plains and into the Great Lakes. That drags the front in here on Wednesday with the potential for some decent storms going up.

GFS

GFS

The Canadian Model is even more pronounced with this system, but slows it down across the region on Thursday with a wave of low pressure developing…

Canadian

Cooler than normal air comes in behind that front and likely hangs around into, at least, early next weekend. Another front will likely move in here for the following week. Active!

Last weekend, I went in depth on the developing El Nino and the potential implications for the fall and winter ahead. I’ve talked about how this would become a behemoth of an El Nino for past few months. Now, NOAA releases a statement on how strong this thing is and the whole weather world flips out.

I’m not going to rehash my thoughts on how different this is from any prior El Nino on record. But I will offer additional support to back up that the warmest anomalies in the Pacific will not be along the coast of South America ala the big El Ninos of 1997 and 1982. The latest from the JAMSTEC…

JMA 2

You will also notice all the warm water along the west coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. That’s been there since 2013 and has been, in my eyes, the driving force of the pattern since then. How will that warm water and El Nino get along?

The JAMSTEC fall and winter temperature forecasts continue to indicate colder than normal temps around here…

JMA 1

The model then carries that colder than normal setup through next spring. Sound familiar?

The latest seasonal model from NASA also has a cold look. Fall…

NASA

Winter…

NASA 2

Again, those are just seasonal computer models and should be treated with a fair amount of skepticism. The interesting thing is, they all continue to generally point toward a similar setup. LOTS of factors between now and the winter will determine how things play out. There is no true analog to the placement, depth and timing of this monster of an El Nino and overall Pacific setup.

I leave you with some Sunday tracking toys…

Have a great day and take care.

9 Comments

Active Pattern Returning

Good Saturday, folks. We’ve made it to the midway point of August and the dog days of summer have been pretty wimpy, so far. Temps for the month are solidly below normal, despite attempts to hype “no-show” heat in some circles.

As we move into the second half of August, the pattern looks like it’s getting back to some of the active ways we’ve seen the past few months. It may not be to that extent, but the action is certainly picking up. We will start things out today with scattered showers and storms across the region. Southern and southeastern parts of the state got in on a few of those Friday, but the weekend stuff could pop anywhere across the region.

Any storm that goes up today could be a bit on the strong side…

 Highs out there today should generally run into the middle 80s for many areas.

Sunday’s weather should bring similar conditions with temps coming up just a degree or two for some. Scattered showers and storms will continue to increase into early next week and that should help keep temps around normal for afternoon highs.

Showers and storms will increase on Wednesday as a stronger cold front enters the picture from the west…

GFS 2

This is a front I’ve talked about for the past several days and now the operational forecast models are really picking up on it. Each run seems to take on a cooler look as we get closer. Check out the temperature departure crash on the GFS from Wednesday into Thursday…

GFS

If that’s right, it would be another impressive blast of cooler than normal temps for the second half of next week.

Temps should rebound pretty quickly and could even turn steamy for a bit after that. The GFS then brings another trough in a few days later…

GFS 3

I’m on record saying the pattern tries to skew warmer for the second half of the month into early September. I say that even as the CFS is backing off on the warm temps it’s been showing during that time.

I will have some new fall and winter models coming your way on Sunday.

Enjoy the day and take care.

2 Comments

Storm Chances Slowly Return

Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the end of a week of weather straight outta September. I still can’t find any true summer heat, but the pattern will begin to skew warmer than normal in the coming weeks. As temps rise, so will the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

A storm or two will try to pop today across southeastern parts of the state. The best chance will be for those counties along the Virginia and Tennessee borders. The rest of the region should stay partly cloudy with highs mainly from 80-85.

 

 

A weak upper level system looks to hang around the are this weekend…

NAM

That could lead to a few scattered showers and thunderstorms going up. The NAM has been showing this chance for several days now…

NAM 2

That’s certainly nothing widespread, but some scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday and into Sunday. Highs will be in the low and middle 80s.

The upper flow continues to come at us from the northwest next week and that means the threat for more in the way of scattered storms. A weak cold front approaches the region on Tuesday with a bit of an increase in the action…

Canadian

Another front may move our way by the end of the week.

The overall pattern is expected to skew warmer through the end of the month and into early September. The 10 day departures from the CFS are showing this well…

CFS

That same run shows a nice reversal by the middle of September…Have

 

CFS 2Have a great Friday and take care.

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