The NAM just made a new friend in the European Model. That latest Euro comes in with a colder and farther south solution which is more of a heavy snow threat to many. I want to caution you that the map below has a history if inflating snow totals. It basically shows ALL frozen forms of precipitation as snowfall, so don’t just look at the numbers…
If you look more at the placement, it matches up with what the NAM was showing with this morning’s run. Again… don’t worry about the numbers it’s showing. It’s taking sleet and freezing rain totals and adding that to the snow forecast.
Good Saturday afternoon, everyone. A major winter storm will slam the bluegrass state Sunday into Monday. This will likely create many problems and could result in power issues before all is said and done for some. I have a breakdown of how this looks to play out an the infamous First Call.
I’ve seen the various forecast models and the NAM looks to be an outlier with what it’s showing. That doesn’t mean it can’t end up correct, but I don’t like models that don’t play well with others.
A nasty mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow will impact the region starting Sunday morning with the frozen precipitation taking over from northwest to southeast late Sunday into Sunday night. Timing and placement of each type of precipitation is crucial to how much of each you get outside your door.
Here’s a rough estimate of how this takes place…
Putting together a first call map is tough to do with so many precipitation types at play. If one of the types remains more dominate than the others, it totally throws everything out the window. I am VERY confident of this winter storm impacting the state. I am not that confident in the placement of totals. Regardless, here ya go…
That WILL change as things become more clear and I will update accordingly. If the NAM is right… that whole map gets thrown out the window.
Gusty winds of 30mph and temps dropping into the teens will be with us Sunday night into Monday. Those will just add to the nastiness of this storm.
This storm comes on the two year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak that hit Kentucky. I will be at a special ceremony today at 5 at the Menifee County High School to talk about that tragic event. Come by and say hi if you’re in the area.
With me being on the road… I will be sending out updates via Twitter and won’t be able to update this blog until later this evening.
Enjoy today’s nice weather and take care.