Rounds Of Storms Continue

Good Saturday, everyone.  The stormy pattern we’ve been tracking for well over a week continues and shows no signs of letting up this weekend. Storms will come at us in waves as the axis of storms shifts farther west into the bluegrass state. This puts western Kentucky in play for some storms that can cause more issues.

Speaking of issues, flooding was common with the Friday evening storms. Many streets in Lexington were flooded and areas around Ashland had big time problems. The hardest hit area was around Prestonsburg in Floyd County. Much of the downtown area was underwater.

High school football games were postponed in many areas last night because of the storms. Many of those will be played tonight, but could face additional storms.

The storms out there today and Sunday will focus on the entire state and will continue to come at us in waves. These storms can put down tremendous amounts of rain and pack a ton of lightning.

Off and on storms will take us through the first half of next week. Once we get into the middle of the week, a strong cold front will approach from the west. That front SHOULD clear the area later Thursday or Friday with much cooler air working in for the Labor Day Weekend.

The one thing that could impact the timing and set of it all would be a possible tropical system developing in the Caribbean. The models want to keep this storm off the coast as our front passes through…

GFS

It’s still way too early for anything definitive on that system, so we will wait to see what happens with it.

In the meantime, let’s track some storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking Storms Into The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to work across central and eastern Kentucky through the weekend. The western half of the state will swelter with heat index values hitting triple digits at times.

The axis of the storms is actually going to expand toward the west today and through Saturday and Sunday. That means more of the state will likely see some action than what we went through on Thursday.

Here’s a look at what I’m talking about…

GFS

I would expect a round of two to actually get pretty far into western Kentucky at some point this weekend. Still… central and eastern Kentucky will see several rounds of storms working in from the northwest. This will be the favored corridor for a few strong to severe storms and local high water issues.

High school football action kicks off this evening and we could very well have some storms for a few of the games.

The threat for storms will actually carry us through the middle of next week. That’s when a strong cold front moves through from the west…

Euro

The timing of that front is up in the air because of a possible tropical system across the east or southeast. Whenever the front does finally pass through, much cooler air should filter in behind it. Below normal temps are possible by the end of next week into Labor Day Weekend. This is from the European Model for next Friday…

Euro 2In the meantime, let’s track some more storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

 

 

18 Comments

More Storms On The Way

Good Thursday, everyone. Our stormy pattern rolls on and is likely to hang tough through the first half of next week. The storms in recent days have caused flooding, power outages and some wind damage. The storms ahead of us will likely do the same.

My biggest worry continues to be flash flooding. The ground is waterlogged in many areas and it won’t take very much at all to cause high water problems. Some spots in Kentucky are already showing record amounts of rain for the month of August.

The storms will continue to come at us in waves from northwest to southeast with the greatest concentration across central and eastern Kentucky. These will be loaded with lightning and torrential rains and will be able to cause some local wind damage. These rounds of storms will likely come at us through the upcoming weekend.

All of this is on the cusp of a heat ridge across the plains states. The local heat hypers have been having a field day with this, even though it never really gets into central and eastern Ky. The blog has been focusing on the thunderstorm threat because that’s what happens when we find ourselves on the eastern side of a plains heat wave. That’s where we look to stay for several more days.

Big changes are likely next week as a trough digs in from the northwest. It’s at this point we see the tropics coming to life and several models continue to develop a storm that threatens the southeast or Gulf states. We will worry about that potential in a few days.

For now… let’s track more rounds of heavy rain and storms through the region…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

29 Comments

Storms Rolling Through

Good Wednesday, everyone. Steamy air continues to fire up rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region. In addition to the heavy rain threat, a few of the storms could become severe and I have the blog all set to track the action.

There really isn’t a whole lot more that I can say about the week. The headlines should suffice…

- The storms come at us in waves through the weekend and each wave will contain torrential rainfall. The greatest threat for flash flooding problems will be across central and eastern Kentucky.

Euro

- A few of the storms may contain high winds and hail.

- This is a very steamy period with high humidity levels and toasty temps.

- Daily temps will be determined by the timing of the rounds of storms. 90s will be common across the west. Central and eastern Kentucky’s temps are not nearly as clear cut. For one, there will be more clouds and storms. The other big player… a super soaked ground with green grass and lush vegetation.

Looking farther down the road into next week… the models are showing the tropics coming to life. Several of the models are suggesting a storm gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 3

There’s a big ole grain of salt alert with that map, but that certainly wouldn’t be good for Labor Day Weekend.

Back to tracking today’s storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

18 Comments

Tracking Storms and The Heavy Rain Threat

Good Tuesday, everyone. Several areas of the state have been hammered by flooding rains over the past few days. With the setup favoring rounds of storms continuing, additional flooding problems will be possible in the coming days.

As noted in earlier updates… a few strong or severe storms will be possible during this time. We have the potential for a cluster of big boomers working our way from the northwest later today into tonight. Much of the day should be dry.

Still, flooding is the greatest threat of the next several days. The models continue to point toward a lot of water possibly falling across central and eastern Kentucky…

Euro I want to stress how this pattern has flash flooding written all over it… especially across the eastern half of the state. If you live in a flood prone area, please do not take any thunderstorm lightly. They can dump a tremendous amount of water in a short amount of time.

Now, it’s NOT going to rain all the time and you may not have it rain each day where you live. Rounds of storms means just that… it comes at us in rounds with steamy air in between.

Western Kentucky still looks to get in on some hot weather this week and a day or two can turn very toasty for the rest of the state. Enjoy it, much cooler air is coming in for next week and that may carry us through Labor Day Weekend. The GFS Ensembles have a nice look…

GFS 2

I have you all set to track today’s storm threat…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

19 Comments

A Busy Week Of Weather

Good Monday to one and all. Tropical air works into the bluegrass state this week and this will aid in the development of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In between these rounds, temps are going to turn rather toasty… especially in the west.

A huge ridge of heat is developing across the plains states over the next few days. This will put Kentucky on the fringe of the real deal heat, but some of that could slip into western parts of the state. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms would come calling to central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s the setup…

Special

This is going to make for a rather busy period for our region. Here’s a breakdown:

- Let’s start in the west where heat and humidity will be the main show. This is a part of the state that has a very dry ground and that will allow temps to soar well into the 90s. Heat index values of 100+ will be possible.

- Central and eastern Kentucky will be dealing with rounds of showers and storms. These storms will likely put down torrential rainfall and a round or two of severe storms will be possible. Big storms like to crank up along the periphery of heat domes. Watch for local high water problems.

- Temps in the central and east are not as clear cut as the west. This area has a very wet ground with lush vegetation and will also be dealing with storms. Any day that doesn’t feature much in the way of storms will turn toasty and could hit 90. Regardless of the temps… this is a steam bath of a week with the high humidity levels.

This pattern isn’t going to hang out long as it is likely to be replaced by another trough next week. The GFS Ensembles show the cool coming…

GFS 2

Here are today’s tracking tools…

 

 

Have a great Monday and take care.

 

8 Comments

Rounds Of Storms Kicking In

Good Sunday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to rumble across Kentucky and this is a sign of things to come. It is not going to rain the entire day or the entire week ahead, but when it does… watch out. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and can put down some very heavy rains.

The models continue to key on this heavy rain threat… Today in the west then into central and eastern Kentucky over the next several days. The numbers from the European Model suggest a flash flood threat…

Euro 2

The GFS shows something similar over the next week…

GFS

When I start seeing models spitting our 5″ amounts over the same general area, the “uh-oh” alarm goes off in my head. We will need to really watch the local flash flood threat in the coming days.

The overall pattern places our region in between a shot of cool in the northeast and a surge of big heat in the plains…

EuroThat often leads to stormy weather in our part of the world with warm temps and high humidity levels.

Your daily tracking toys…

 

 

Rainfall Since Midnight

Have a great day and take care.

13 Comments

Heavy Rain Threat

Good Saturday, everyone. We are about ready to head back into a very stormy setup across our region and this will set the stage for heavy rainfall. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will work in late Sunday and that action should continue for much of next week.

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 80-85 degree range. The clouds will thicken some this afternoon and isolated showers and storms will try to pop across the west and central parts of the state.

Current temperatures

Low pressure will work our way late Sunday and slowly work across the region into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during this time. Here’s what to watch for…

- Storms will come at us in waves from Sunday through much of next week. That does not mean it’s going to rain all the time!

- A few strong storms will be possible with hail and high winds the worry.

- The biggest worry will come from the torrential rain potential. Amounts of 1″-3″ of rain are possible over the next week. Much higher amounts are possible for areas getting in on repeat thunderstorm action. Local high water issues will be possible.

The forecast models continue to dump a lot of rain on the region in the next week and change…

CanadianI will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

12 Comments

Tracking The Return Of Storms

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to the end of the week and we’re ready to kickoff the weekend with gorgeous weather. This won’t last very long because another stormy pattern is about ready to take shape. The action starts later this weekend and looks to carry us through next week.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Overall… today is fantastic!

Saturday will find temps from 80-85 in many areas with some high clouds on the increase. I can’t rule out a stray storm or two in central and western Kentucky. The European Model shows my concern…

Euro

The best threat for showers and thunderstorms will roll in later Sunday into Monday. That’s when low pressure slowly works across the region…Euro 2

That is likely to be followed up by another system by the middle of the week…

Euro 3

All of this is happening as warm and humid air pushes in from the southwest. Instead of turning our weather hot… we get in on rounds of showers and thunderstorms through next week. The European Model continues to show significant totals…

Euro 5 Euro 4This is a setup that can unload on some areas with torrential rainfall. When and where will be the big questions as we roll into this period.

Have a great Friday and take care.

4 Comments

Another Stormy Setup In The Making

Good Thursday, everyone. Our cooler than normal summer rolls on across the bluegrass state. This pleasant air mass looks to carry us into the start of the upcoming weekend. That’s when we start to see some changes showing up. Those changes could lead us back into another stormy setup.

Speaking of storms… scattered showers and storms will be possible out there today as a weak cold front drops in from the north. Winds will gust up with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will range from the upper 70s in the east to low 80s out west.

Current temperatures

Friday into Saturday look pretty good with highs between 80 and 85 in most areas. Some clouds will increase later Saturday and it’s possible for a storm or two to pop across the west.

Storms will increase from west to east Sunday and carry us into the first half of next week. A couple of systems will dive in from the northwest during this time…

Euro 2

This will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms back to the bluegrass state…

Euro

Locally heavy rainfall is a good bet with these storms. The European Model shows some healthy rain totals…

Euro 3The pattern will turn warmer, but that does not mean things are going to turn hot. As a matter of fact, when a warm pattern begins with rain, that is usually a sign it won’t hang around long. I guess time will tell. What would you bet on this summer? Yep… me too.

Have a great day and take care.

3 Comments