Time posted: 1:44 am

Cold Air Crashes Back In

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our cold front continues to push to the east, allowing for colder air to settle back into the bluegrass state. This continues to be part of the overall pattern that is very active and looks to throw even colder air in here for the final two weeks of October. There are even some hints of winter showing up.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Showers and storms are with us very early on, especially across the east. This action will move away by late morning, but low clouds will swing back in from the north and northwest through the afternoon. I can’t rule out a few showers coming from those low clouds.

Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Because of the sun verses clouds thing, temps may be all over the place at any one time during the day, but everyone should come down in the afternoon. Temps this afternoon may range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Location, location, location.

Gusty winds will make it feel much colder, especially when the clouds return. The clouds thing may continue to be an issue over the next few days and that’s going to play a big role in our temperatures, especially at night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop deep into the 30s with clear skies, but stay near 40 with clouds.

Thursday looks like a crisp fall day with a mix of sun and clouds and temps generally in the 50s. Can we completely clear the skies out Thursday night? If we do, a freeze would be possible as temps drop to freezing or below for many. The NAM fam has temps dropping well into the 20s for some spots…

NAM

The Hi Res NAM is even colder…

Those numbers are likely too cold, but it gives you an indication that we could see, at least, a light freeze.

The weather for Friday and Saturday looks great as temps recover toward the 70s by Saturday. Clouds will increase late in the day as moisture streams in from a possible tropical system in the Gulf. That system may bring us some rain by Sunday.

The main storm system will roll in here by the time we hit Monday. This powerful plains storm will drag another front through here and this one may have high winds and strong storms with it…

Much colder air sweeps quickly back in behind that boundary.

If you’ve been reading for a while, you know I’ve really been trying to lock in on late October for some potential fun in fall. The analogs I came up with back in September first clued me in to the possibility, then the overall pattern started to evolve in that direction. Now, the computer forecast models are showing a little something with just about each run.

These are some deep and anomalous troughs showing up for the rest of October..

That’s a signal for much colder than normal temps, but can we get more than just cold out of it? Maybe.

Each run of the GFS from the past several days has been showing a touch of winter. The latest was no different…

We shall see, but it’s pretty amazing to see these signals matching up with those analogs I showed you guys back in September.

I will try to update later today, but I have a few things going on that may prevent me from doing so.

Enjoy the day and take care.

21 Comments

Time posted: 7:43 pm

Tracking Our Cold Front

Good evening, everyone. Our cold front is arriving from the west and is bringing a big increase in showers and thunderstorms and a big decrease in temps. This will then set the stage for some very chilly air for the next few days, with a bigger blast of cold lurking for next week.

This front has been well advertised here on KWC for the past week and it seems ti be behaving itself. Showers and storm are increasing from west to east and that’s the trend through tonight into early Wednesday. Here are your radars to follow along…

Winds will be very gusty and could top 40mph at times as the front blows through tonight. Temps behind this boundary will drop in a hurry and it’s flat out chilly on Wednesday. Morning showers should move away from the east and we may even see a bit of clearing before low clouds sweep back in on a strong northwesterly flow. That wind could keep some areas late afternoon temps in the upper 40s. That wind will also add an extra chill to the air.

Thursday and Friday mornings look cold with the potential for many to reach freezing or a little below, especially Friday morning.

The start of the weekend continues to look awesome with milder air pushing in on a southwesterly flow. That flow will also bring some showers and storms in here by Sunday as we get set for a bigger system Monday and Tuesday. Here’s the Euro for Sunday…

That’s when a strong plains storm rolls toward the Great Lakes and drags a cold front across the region. This could bring high winds and strong thunderstorms into Kentucky as it does so…

The air behind that is pretty darn cold and there’s a bigger blast of cold right behind that one. Here’s how the Euro sees that…

Many of the models continue to take on a winter look as we head toward the end of October. Obviously, this is still pretty far down the road, but the signal keeps showing up. The GFS has been advertising this for some time now…

One of the more interesting signals is from the European Ensembles. It shows deep troughs digging into the eastern half of the country through Halloween. The two week snow map shows a flake chance…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 1:24 am

Here Comes Another Big Temp Crash

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s a warm and windy day taking shape, but another big time thermometer crash is moving in here tonight and Wednesday. This is all part of a very active setup that will bring additional major fall systems our way over the next few weeks.

As always, let us begin with what’s going on today and work forward. Highs will be in the 70s on a gusty southwest wind. Those winds may reach 30mph at times late today into tonight as our cold front sweeps in here. A scattering of showers and storms may develop ahead of the front today, with the main action arriving along the front.

Here are your radars to follow along with the action…

Low clouds may hang tough into Wednesday, especially across central and eastern Kentucky as a strong northwesterly flow kicks in. This would keep our temps way down, with some areas struggling to get out of the 40s. Watch how the NAM handles the temps…

The wind chill digits from that same run will have you grabbing a thick coat…

Clouds may linger into Wednesday night and that could keep temps up just a bit. If the clouds break, temps will be in the frosty cold low 30s. Thursday is sunny and chilly with temps mainly in the 50s. Lows by Friday morning could drop into the upper 20s in a few spots.

This takes us into the weekend and a warmer wind that will be blowing. This should cause our temps to bounce back pretty quickly with a few mild days taking shape. Showers and a few storms increase on Sunday ahead of a major plains storm system. This rolls into the Great Lakes by Monday and Tuesday, bringing a big increase in showers and storms with a temp crash to follow…

Strong storms will be possible ahead of this system and winds could REALLY crank.

This is part of the active setup that will lead to a pretty cold setup for the final two weeks of October. Watch these shots show up…

I’ll throw you all another blowout post later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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