Time posted: 12:28 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, neighbors. Soggy weather rolls on across the bluegrass state with several areas picking up another inch or so of rain last night. Additional showers are out there this afternoon for some, and the pattern is loaded with more heavy rains later this week into the weekend.

This afternoon’s showers will be mainly across the south and east…

We get a chilly break from the rain on Wednesday, but things quickly turn soggy again by Thursday and Friday. Watch how another southern system roars in from the southwest…

GFS

That can easily drop another 1″-2″ of rain on top of Kentucky.

This sets the stage for some possible high water issues later this weekend into Monday. That’s when the big daddy system develops and slowly works across our region…

GFS 2

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be noted, and this will fall on soaked ground with swollen waterways. The potential for high water is real and something we have to keep a very close eye on going forward.

The last 2 runs of the GFS show areas of 4″ rains through Monday…

GFS Rain

 

GFS Rain 2

Believe it or not, there is a good chance the model is underdone with the rain totals.

In addition to the heavy rain, the winds are going to be absolutely cranking. 50mph gusts will be possible at times with such a powerful low on top of us.

There is the chance for some flakes getting into the action by Monday as the upper low passes over us.

From there, winter takes control with another system moving in after the “big daddy”. Looking at the pattern, there’s a good chance to get snow on the ground before the month is over. That’s especially the case with these temps taking control in the final week of January…

GFS Temps

I will update things later today. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

22 Comments

Time posted: 2:00 am

Hyperactive Pattern Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another wet day across the bluegrass state as our latest round of showers and thunderstorms slowly pushes to our east. While we may get one dry day after it, don’t let it spoil you, this pattern is loaded with action as we roll ahead.

Old Man Winter is in hiding now, but has his eyes set on another back loaded winter. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Let us start with the conditions out there today. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be noted this morning, with linger showers across the central and east this afternoon. Temps will spike into the 60s early, then fall behind a cold front late today…

Wednesday continues to look dry… did you heat that? DRY! Highs will be much chillier with readings in the 40s as clouds linger, though some sun tries to break through.

Don’t let Wednesday fool ya, more rain moves in quickly on Thursday and carries us into Friday. The showers and storms will increase from the southwest during this time…

GFS

That can easily drop another inch or two of rain.

All of this will be followed up by a massive slow-moving storm system later this weekend into early next week. This will be a monster of a storm bringing heavy rain, thunder and high winds to the region from late Saturday through Monday. Once the core of the upper low passes over us, it’s possible for some wet snows to try and get into the picture. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

The European Model is very similar…

Euro

Again, that’s a massive storm system taking shape. Any other air mass in front of this but the toasty one we have now, would have made for a serious WOW winter storm. SMH

All of this leads us into a familiar pattern we have seen in many of the past several winters. It’s one where the worst comes during the second half of winter and it has the potential to get downright nasty for much of the country.

The GFS Ensembles are pretty awesome to look at. Watch how the warm anomalies get pushed into Canada as the cold grows underneath into the United States. Then, watch how that warm blob in Canada gets wiped out with an arctic connection aimed right into the cold across the US…

GFS

Nothing like going from one extreme to the other in the blink of an eye! For my money, that’s one of the most telling animations I’ve posted on this blog.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

23 Comments

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Rain has returned to the region and it will keep rolling on and off for much of the next week. This is one of the wetter patterns we have seen in a long long time, but I’m sure someone will yell drought as soon as we get one dry day. 🙂

Some rumbles of thunder may join the party overnight…

Wednesday looks like a chillier and drier day, but the clouds will be tough to shake. Enjoy it because more rain and thunder sweep in here from the southwest Thursday into Friday.

That will set the stage for a MUCH bigger system moving in for later this weekend into early next week. I’ve covered the upper level part of this for a while, now it’s time to start focusing on the lower levels. Expect this to spawn a massive slow-moving storm system right on top of our region. Look at this on the European…

Euro

Euro 2

High winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain giving way to high winds, colder air and the potential for a pocket of rain/snow or snow.

Cutoff lows can get a little wild and this one has some potential to do just that.

The next week can unleash another 2″-4″ of rain across the bluegrass state. This is pretty crazy.

I’ve also been talking about how the cutoff system likely gets the ball rolling toward another back loaded winter with cold and snow. Well, here’s what the Euro shows following that upper low by the middle of next week…

Euro 3

Given the block showing up over the top, watch for that system, similar to the one this weekend, to trend farther south.

The ensembles 5 day temp average to end January…

Euro 4

That’s cold!

Enjoy your evening and take care.

19 Comments

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good MLK Day to one and all. On this day we honor the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, we find milder air continuing to surge into the region. This will cause some thunderstorms to blow up later this evening as we have an action packed pattern ahead.

Temps today have been slower to respond than I thought, but the numbers continue to rise as the warm fronts lifts to our north. This allows showers and some thunderstorms to go up across the west. A few of the storms may be strong across that area before weakening as they head northeast…

The showers and thunder will carry us into Tuesday before a one day break in the action on Wednesday. This will lead to slightly chillier air before another surge of mild and storms by Thursday. Locally heavy rains carry us into Friday.

You think we get a break after that? Nope. Here comes the monster upper low this weekend into early next week. The GFS is finally getting on board…

GFS

Here’s the surface map from that same model run…

GFS

That type of track would give us thunderstorms and heavy rain to start with the possibility of snow under the track of the upper low. High winds would also be a big issue.

As I’ve said, wild things can happen with big upper lows like that.

That’s the system that unleashes the back loaded winter scenario for the 4th straight year. The GFS Ensembles show a very cold look later next week…

GFS 2

It’s one extreme to the other and that seems to be the calling card of this winter.

I will have another update coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

17 Comments

Time posted: 2:12 am

Another Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday, everyone. After a super-duper ugly weekend of weather, we are heading into a brand new week featuring some more ugly stuff, but with a twist. Temps will be much, much milder as we await the arrival of another back loaded winter that threatens to last into early spring. Blah.

Let’s begin with our MLK Day and roll forward. Milder air surges in here on a gusty southwesterly wind that will touch off some scattered showers. Those showers will increase from this evening as thunderstorms join the mix…

Temps should hit 60 or better in many areas today, but Tuesday may see the numbers really take off just ahead of a cold front. Winds may also hit 40mph as additional showers and thunderstorms rumble through here.

That action is ahead of a fast-moving cold front that will knock the numbers down some into Wednesday. It’s a day that may actually be mainly dry with some sunshine. Wait… What? Mother Nature, how dare you throw some sun into our weather pity party!!

This won’t last long as another wet weather maker develops in the deep south and rolls in from the southwest. This will have an increase in showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. These can dump additional heavy rains. Check out the GFS rain forecast through Friday…

GFS Rain

Temps will come way up during this time and should hit the 60s… Again. Given this wet and mild week, we are likely to see some buds popping out on trees and we may even hear frogs. Honestly, this is likely to happen.

Unfortunately, those buds and frogs are going to be in for a world of hurt later this month into February, and much of March. I’ve been talking about how this is likely to be another winter where it saves the worst for last. That’s been the theme of the last several winters, but I didn’t think this one would follow that trend. I’m probably going to be wrong on that one.

The change begins later this weekend into early next week with a big cutoff low drifting across the region…

Euro 2

That can lead to a hefty storm system working across the Ohio Valley and into the east…

Euro

That can lead to some pretty wild weather and is something for us to watch for in the coming days.

I will update things later today. Enjoy the day and take care.

6 Comments