Time posted: 12:55 am

Fall Chill For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a big blast of fall slated to blow into the bluegrass state on Monday. This setup will give us some chilly temps, and we have the potential for an upper level low to camp out across the region for a stretch.

Our cold front arrives on Monday with some gusty showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Temps will be warmest in the east, but will drop quickly as the showers set in. We could see a 20 degree spread from east to west along this boundary.

From there, it’s game on for some very chilly air to move in. The NAM is now showing lows around the 40 degree mark by Tuesday morning…

nam

Skies have to be clear for that to happen, but it’s still going to be jacket weather!

Highs on Tuesday may not get to 70 degrees for many areas. The conditions for the rest of the week will be determined by the upper low. The European is back to showing this system being right on top of us by the middle of the week…

euro

That could give is a shower or two and act to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The cutoff low then strengthens and works back toward the west by Friday and Saturday. Check out the increase in showers during this time…

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Any day that features clouds and showers can be VERY chilly. Even with sun, the best we could get may be low and middle 70s.

The European Model continues to show that same low showing up nearby into early next week…

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If we see that hanging around, that’s still a cool looking setup into the first few days of October.

It’s at this point we find the models continuing to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and taking it into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the GFS does this…

gfs

One of my early analog years for the fall and winter is 1995. That year featured Hurricane Opal taking a similar path during the first week of October…

hurricane-opal-rain-contours

Just something interesting to note.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:12 am

A Pot Of Chili Watch

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Good Saturday, everyone. It may seem odd to issue a Pot Of Chili Watch on a day with temps nearing 90, but we’ve never been accused of being normal around here. 🙂 A big blast of fall temps arrives Monday and carries us through the week ahead.

This front will work quickly from west to east on Monday, with a gusty band of showers and storms along it…

nam

That is a CLASSIC fall storm system and cold front, and will cause a huge drop in temps as the day wears on Monday.

Highs from Tuesday through Thursday should hit the upper 60s to low 70s for many. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s…

gfs-temps-1

That is going to feel absolutely amazing!!

While the numbers will rebound by next weekend, don’t expect anything close to where we have been over the past few weeks.

From there, the pattern into the first week of October suggests the potential for a big tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Several recent runs of the GFS have been showing something…

gfs

The model has actually been pretty good with tropical signals from a week or two away. Well over a week ago, it was showing something trying to head toward the southeastern coast. That system is actually Hurricane Karl that’s near Bermuda, so it did pretty good in recognizing the overall pattern.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

Summer Sizzle To Fizzle Into Fall

Good Friday, folks. We are all dealing with the summer sizzle, but hoping to see it fizzle into fall. That looks to be the case FINALLY as we head into next week. Until then, let’s relax and enjoy more of the same into the coming weekend.

Temps push 90 today into Saturday. Yawn.

The change starts Monday as showers and storms increase ahead of a strong cold front. The GFS (gulp) has been most consistent with this slowly pushing across the region and being the wettest of the bunch…

gfs

That has some decent rains across the region through early Wednesday, but other models are not as bullish on those rain amounts.

All of them have the real deal chill. Check out the GFS numbers for late Tuesday afternoon…

gfs-temps-1

High temps behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday struggle to get out of the 60s…

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The European Model agrees…

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The model places the core of the coolest anomalies right on top of us…

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Pot of Chili alert? 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 2:11 am

Big Changes Next Week

Good Thursday, everyone. Fall arrives today, but Mother Nature didn’t get the memo. Summertime is putting in some serious overtime across our part of the world. Hang in there, big changes are showing up as we roll into next week.

I’m not even talking about the weather for the next several days, because you already know the drill.

Change starts early next week with the potential for a big upper level low to cutoff. The models always struggle with placement and timing of these things, but the signal for something has been there for a long time now.

The GFS starts things off with a strong cold front passing through here late Monday into Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms abound…

gfs-2

Check out the HUGE temperature gradient along this boundary as it initially moves in…

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The GFS slows that down across the Appalachian Mountains with another surge of heavy rain late Tuesday and Wednesday…

gfs-3

The European Model is just a littler slower with this big system with the bulk of the action arriving from Monday night through Wednesday…

euro

As the upper low closes off and slows down, the European brings that right on top of our region for the second half of next week…

euro-3

There is the potential for some REAL DEAL cool and chill as that system rolls in here.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 2:35 am

Looking Down The Winding Weather Road

Good Wednesday to one and all. As summertime puts in some overtime, we start to look ahead to the rest of fall and winter. If you’re sick of the heat, you’re probably going to like what some of the seasonal models are finding for the months ahead.

In the short term… it’s hot through the start of the weekend. That’s when a “backdoor” cold front drops in from the northeast and knocks our temps down closer to normal on Sunday.

Another cold front moves our way on Monday, and this is where we find some model split going on. The earlier run of the GFS brought a cold front through here with a lot of energy hanging well to the southwest…

gfs

The latest run decided not to bundle so much energy in the southwest, and now has all that system totally cutting off around here…

gfs

That would bring a much better threat for showers and thunderstorms to go along with a prolonged period of cool temps. Watch this upper level low hang around for days and day…

gfs

That’s actually similar to what several models were saying might happen a few days ago.

The European Model isn’t a stout as the above GFS, but has the low cutting off across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley…

euro

I’ve been posting some recent snow runs from the CFS and they have been showing North American snow increasing a little early. A similar run from an overseas model shows something similar through the first few days of November…

euro-2

All seasonal models should be taken with a grain of salt, but one can certainly gather some useful forecasting information from them.

I have been showing the warm pool of water across the Gulf Of Alaska and how it is still going strong. I first talked about this in the fall of 2013 and then honed in on it as the likely driving force for the following harsh winter. That same warm pool was there for the following harsh winter. It was there last year, but was the super el nino muted it’s potential.

That warm pool continues to show up on the seasonal models for the winter ahead…

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The latest temperature run from the WeatherBell CFS goes cold…

cfs

While that model does show some pretty big changes from day to day, I have noticed more and more days showing a colder look. Again… take it with a grain of salt, but also as something of a learning tool.

In addition to the past few winters, other analog years showing up: 1983-84, 1995-96 and 2000-2001.

Have a wonderful day and take care.

12 Comments