Much Cooler Weather Moving In

Good Tuesday to one and all. Cooler air is slowly but surely working into the region and this will give us a taste of September leading up to the holiday weekend. Conditions for Memorial Day Weekend will look and feel a lot different as muggy air and storms return.

The front continues to push across the region today with a big temp gradient setting up. 80 is possible in the far south and southeast with low 70s in the north and northwest. There is still a small shower chance just ahead of the front, but most areas remain dry.

Very cool air filters in here tonight and Wednesday. Check out the low temps being forecast by the Hi-Res NAM…

NAM 2

That’s some serious chilly for this late in May. Last week, I talked about the potential for some upper 30s and low 40s for this week. The models are certainly suggesting this as a possibility on Wednesday morning.

Highs later in the day will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds. A weak wave of low pressure scoots across the region with the threat for scattered showers and storms into Wednesday night…

NAMThursday and Friday will continue with our September feel with upper 60s to low 70s for highs. Low humidity levels will make for some excellent weather.

Memorial Day Weekend is just around the corner and things will turn much warmer. That is likely to come with a stormy price as moisture increases. Check out the increase in storms on the GFS…

GFS

Highs both days will mainly be in the 80-85 degree range with very muggy air in place.

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Booming Storms Along A Cold Front

Good Monday, folks. We have a strong cold front working into the region today and this should touch off additional showers and storms. A few of the storms could be on the booming side with high winds and hail possible. Once the front blows through… cooler air blows in and takes control of our week in weather.

We will have to watch for the potential of some strong or severe storms trying to pop out there today. The best chance may wind up being in the north and northeast. I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

This front won’t move through until Tuesday and that means temps should still be a little warm with upper 70s to around 80 for many. Isolated showers and storms may linger across the east. Our boundary only slowly pushes to our south as cooler air sweeps in. The NAM has some downright chilly temps by Wednesday morning…

NAM

I mentioned the cold front being a slow mover. That slow push allows for a wave of low pressure to develop along it to our west and southwest. That system rolls eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening with an increase in clouds and scattered showers and some thunder. Here’s the future radar from the NAM:

NAM 2That system will weaken as it moves through our region, but some showers could linger into Thursday morning.

This is a cool air mass coming for the middle and later part of the week. Upper 60s to low 70s may be as good as it gets for highs during this time.

Warmer air moves back in as we roll into Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday looks like the best weather day with readings in the upper 70s to near 80 with partly sunny skies. A developing storm across the plains suggests things turn active by Sunday and Memorial Day…

GFS

Let’s track the storms in the short term…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another day of tropical temps and scattered showers and storms across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Our muggy run of weather has one more day left before we track some much cooler and drier changes into the week ahead.

Highs today will be back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Areas that try to sneak in a little more sunshine could reach the middle 80s. Once again, the sweat factor is going to be off the charts. Scattered showers and storms will rumble across the state with locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning(LOL). There’s the chance for some late day strong or severe storms in the far west.

A strong cold front inches toward the state Monday with an increase in showers and storms…

GFS

The severe threat for Monday is fairly low, but some isolated strong to severe action is possible. Watch for some heavy rain amounts and local high water issues with that setup.

The front will ease on through here Tuesday as cooler and drier air takes over. With a slower arriving front, Tuesday could still feature a scattered shower or thunderstorm.

That cooler air then settles in for Wednesday with readings several degrees below normal…

GFS 2

The GFS shows low 40s for some…

GFS Temps

We will see a weak system weakening as it rolls in from the west. That may produce a shower or two by Thursday, but some clouds may end up being all we get.

Warmer air then moves back in for next weekend into the following week with the return of scattered showers and storms.

Speak of scattered stuff, let’s track…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking Muggy Air and Storms

Good Saturday to one and all. This is a very tropical air mass in place across Kentucky and that’s going to cause rounds of showers and storms to fire up. With the increase in juice, these storms will likely contain a lot of lightning(LOL) and will put down torrential rains.

While it isn’t a washout of a weekend, the storm threat appears to be a little higher than what I had thought a few days ago. Scattered storms will crank today through Monday and the latest computer model forecasts are showing some pretty decent rain totals.

Here’s the NAM through Monday…

NAMModels usually struggle with rainfall totals from thunderstorms. I suspect some areas could see locally higher amounts than what’s being shown.

What about the severe weather threat? A few strong storms could crank up through Sunday with hail and high winds possible. The best threat for a strong to severe storm may come on Monday ahead of a cold front moving through.

That front will bring much cooler and drier air into the middle of next week.

I have you all set to do some Saturday storm tracking…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered Storms For The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We have a muggy weekend taking shape across the bluegrass state, and that muggy air will bring some scattered storms back into the picture. This isn’t a washout of a weekend, but a backup plan for outdoor activities would be a good idea. The longer term continues to feature another big cool blast.

Highs today will hit the upper 70s to low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Higher humidity levels will increase and that increases our sweat factor. Scattered thunderstorms will go up, but we will have a lot of dry times out there.

This moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico continues into the weekend…

Euro

Locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning will be possible with any storm that goes up. Localized severe storms will be possible as the cold front moves in on Monday.

The air coming in behind that front is well below normal for much of the country. Check out the Tuesday through Thursday progression of the cool…

Euro 2

The European Model continues to bring some uber cool high temps…

GFS TEMPS 1Overrunning rains will try to break out by the end of next week into the following weekend.

I leave you with some scattered storm tracking tools…

Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Steam and Storms Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have one more nice day in store for the region before things turn steamy and stormy over the next several days. While that’s happening… I’m already tracking another big cool shot coming your way next week.

Today will feature temps warming from southwest to northeast with many thermometers into the mid and upper 70s for highs. Some low 80s will also be possible in the south and west. Humidity levels and clouds will also increase later in the day.

Moisture will continue to stream in from the southwest for Friday into Saturday. That means scattered showers and storms going up each day…

NAM

That’s a trend that carries us into Sunday as weekend highs settle into the upper 70s to low 80s. Any storm that develops this weekend could contain a lot of lightning and torrential rains. Still… This does not look like a washout.

 

A cold front will move in on Monday with more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. This front is being pushed by a very chilly air mass…

Euro

That’s from the European Model and would mean temps drop  WELL BELOW normal for the middle and end of next week. That same model run has crazy cool highs for next Wednesday…

Euro 2If the European Model is correct… it would suggest the possibility of some patchy frost developing. That’s a big IF from a week away.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A More Active Pattern Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have another gorgeous weather day in the works across the bluegrass state of the Kentucky. This nice stuff isn’t going to last for much longer… Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast to start the upcoming weekend.

In the short term, it’s another great day out there. Upper 60s to around 70 in the north with 70-75 across the south and west under mainly sunny skies.

Clouds, temps and humidity levels will all increase into Thursday. That sets the stage for a nice flow from the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming weekend. That means an increase in scattered showers and storms…

GFS

Temps this weekend will be mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s.

A strong cold front barrels toward the region late Monday into early Tuesday. That could have some rounds of strong storms out ahead of it…

GFS 2

MUCH cooler air will follow in behind that boundary for the middle and end of next week.

GFS 3Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Much Better Weather Blows In

Good Tuesday to one and all. Much cooler and drier air continues to push into the region today. This better breath of air will will give us great conditions for the next couple of days. Enjoy that because another round of warm temps and higher humidity is on the way. That will bring an increased threat for scattered showers and storms.

Highs today will only reach the mid and upper 60s across many areas. The farther south you live, the better the shot at hitting the low 70s. Skies will be partly sunny on a cool northwesterly wind.

That flow carries us into Wednesday with more sunshine and highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s.

Temps will jump quickly on Thursday with most areas in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will jump up as clouds increase on a southwesterly wind flow. That’s a moist flow that will lead us into scattered showers and storms for Friday…

Euro 4

That’s is a moisture rich flow coming off the Gulf of Mexico that should keep scattered showers and storms around into next weekend….

Euro

That is one healthy storm system developing across the plains by Sunday and Monday. It will have a lot of cool to chilly air coming in behind it. That cooler than normal setup then tries to engulf the country by the middle of next week…

Euro 3Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered Severe Storms Possible

Good Monday, everyone. A strong cold front is working toward Kentucky today and will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. The storms of recent days have been a no show as the heat and humidity have stolen the show. That may happen today to some extent.

Temps ahead of our cold front will spike well into the mid and upper 80s across central and eastern Kentucky. Areas that have enough sunshine could hit 90 degrees. Winds will be very gusty and could reach 30mph at times.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be noted along and ahead of the front. This is NOT a washout of a day, and any storms that go up could contain hail and high winds. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front for late Tuesday through Thursday. Lows may reach the 40s with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s into Wednesday.

The models all bring an increase in temperatures and humidity by Friday with scattered showers and storms following close behind. The European Model is less robust with the rainfall numbers over the next week and change than other models…

Euro

GFS

GFS

Canadian…

Canadian

The European Model has had the hot hand with rainfall numbers of late, so let’s see if that streak continues.

In the meantime, track away..

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Make it a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Tracking A Strong Cold Front Toward Kentucky

Good Sunday and Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there. Momma nature is giving you a hot and humid day with temps well into the 80s, again. She may even throw in a few thunderstorms just to be nice. The storm action will increase on Monday as a strong cold front works in from the west.

Any storm that goes up out there today could be on the strong side. These storms will be rather scattered in nature, and some areas won’t even see anything.

That will change up on Monday as our front approaches. Warm and very juicy air is ahead of this boundary with cooler and drier air behind it. This could lead to a few severe storms going up. Here’s the threat area…

Special 2

Some leftover showers will be around Tuesday as the front works through. Temps will be in the 70s for highs, but only in the upper 60s and low 70s by Wednesday. Lows may drop into the middle 40s for many.

After a pleasant middle of the week, the threat for showers and storms will return as we head into the end of the week and weekend…

GFS

That should unleash another round of very warm and humid weather across our part of the world…

Euro

I leave you with a dose of Mother’s Day weather tracking toys…

Have a good one and take care.

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