Time posted: 7:35 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We have another frosty night ahead of us for many areas, but the focus of the update is on the big change lurking for next week. It’s a change toward a much colder setup taking control for the end of October.

Our first system arrives later Sunday into Monday with an big increase in showers and thunderstorms. The European Model shows some heavy rains…

The European Model also shows a heck of a cold shot coming in behind that for Tuesday into Wednesday. This model run shows a clipper-like system diving into the region by the middle of the week…

The GFS is now very similar…

That could produce rain and snow for the Appalachian Mountains. Does that include the high ground across southeastern Kentucky? We will have to see.

That pushes away, with another cold shot coming at us at the end of the European run by next Friday…

Here’s a good animation showing those big dips in the Jetstream aimed right at us…

The European Ensembles through the end of October continue to show some flakes targeting the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains…

The GFS Ensembles are very similar…

There are a lot of variables at play over the next few weeks, so model chaos is likely. Let’s sit back and watch how it all plays out… That’s half the fun! ūüôā

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:52 am

Interesting Weather Times Ahead

Good Tuesday to one and all.¬† We have a gorgeous fall week underway, with a chill in the air and sun in our sky. This nice pattern carries us into the start of the weekend, but changes start to show up after that. It’s a pattern that is threatening to¬†take on an early winter look¬†to end October.

Our Tuesday starts with a touch of frost out there, especially in the colder valleys. Afternoon temps reach the low and middle 60s.

Wednesday looks similar, with a bit of a warm up following that from Thursday through Saturday. Highs from 70-75 look common as we keep the sunshine.

Things begin to change quickly on Sunday as showers and thunderstorms work in from west to east. This is ahead of a healthy system that takes us into Monday…

Temps will take a huge drop as that system works through, but a follow up system delivers cold air by Tuesday…

The European Model is spot on with that…

That’s some real deal cold and could produce some flakes across the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s the animated view from Sunday through Tuesday…

The GFS Ensembles are seeing the Appalachian Mountain flake potential at the same time…

The setup following that will then feature a HUGE trough developing across the eastern half of the country. It’s one that can deliver frigid temps by October standards and the potential for some tricks before Halloween. The GFS continues to show this scenario later next week into the following weekend…

Here’s the animated version of that same particular run…

Now, I do not put a lot of stock in that “son of Sandy” solution being shown above. It’s the overall setup that I’m trying to illustrate. The pattern is can go very cold, which could deliver some flakes to the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show the flakes potential from later next week into the following weekend…

I’ve been talking more and more about a potential early start to winter. Many of my analogs have it and, obviously, we are seeing some of the medium range models seeing it. The seasonal models are also picking up on it. Check out the cold look into November on the CFS. These are 5 day averages…

Make it a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Madness

Good evening, gang.¬†The overall pattern continues to evolve toward what we have been talking about on the blog for a few weeks now. It’s a very cold look taking shape next week into the early part of November, and it has a chance to throw some tricks our way before Halloween.

Speaking of cold, areas of frost are likely tonight as temps drop into the 30s for much of the state. Green thumbs are on high alert.

Regular readers know I’ve been talking about some of my analog years like 2013 and 1995. These were warm for the first half of October, then featured a quick change to cold and even threw some flakes in here before the month was over. It didn’t take long before the current pattern started throwing out clues it was going to try and go that route, and I’ve been showing you those for the past week.

As we get closer, the models are really starting to pick up on all this. Let’s watch the GFS run from this weekend to Halloween night…

That’s a very active and cold look to the model. We should see the first system impact our region with showers and storms late this weekend into early next week. That has a nice shot of cold coming in behind it by Tuesday…

That could bring the first flakes of the season to the high elevations along the Appalachian Mountains.

I’ve mentioned how a bigger trough would likely develop later next week and that those kinds of troughs are usually accompanied by a big storm. The GFS…

Now, that is likely too amped up, but you get the idea. It’s that shot of cold that we could get flakes flying into parts of¬†the Ohio Valley.

The model then has another system digging in to end October…

The Canadian Model doesn’t go out as far as the GFS, but it’s singing a similar cold tune for the middle and end of next week…

Those temps are cccccold…

Buckle up, kids… The fun and games may get started early this winter.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 1:13 am

A Touch Of Frost Possible

Good Monday, everyone. We have a much colder setup across Kentucky as we kick off a brand new week. This chilly brand of air may produce some patchy frost out there over the next couple of mornings. I’ll focus on that and the end of the month pattern that will try to make things interesting.

Highs today are generally in the upper 50s across the central and east, with 60-65 in the west.

Clear skies, low humidity levels and light winds will team up to allow temps to drop into the upper 30s for many areas by Tomorrow morning. The colder valleys may drop into the low and middle 30s, leading to some frost on the pumpkins.

Tuesday looks awesome with highs in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. A few mid and upper 30s may show up again by Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week sees the amazing fall weather rolling on as temps slowly warm. We should be in the 70s into the start of the weekend, but a cold front likely crashes in from the west by Sunday or¬† Monday…

That’s an interesting setup with a decent front dropping in and an upper level low spinning to our southwest. Two things could happen with that… It could get swept up into our region… Or it could head into the Gulf and form some type of hybrid system.

Later next week into the closing days of October could feature a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country. This is something we have talked about for many days now, as the pattern favors this…

Another teleconnection for this deep eastern U.S. trough comes from the western Pacific. That’s where we have a typhoon being forecast to recurve…

At the same time, we see the PNA going positive and the NAO going negative…

A positive PNA sends a ridge up the western part of North America, allowing cold air to filter into the east. This graphic illustrates what I’m talking about…

The Negative NAO throws some blocking into the mix near Greenland, also helping to send colder air into the eastern half of the country.

Just how cold and how prolonged all this is remains to be seen, but winter weather loves have got to love the look of the pattern as we head closer to winter.

I will try to update things later today, so check back.

Make it a good Monday and take care.

11 Comments

Time posted: 4:57 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on today’s cold front and the longer range look for the end of the month.

The front continues to plow through the state with a few showers and thunderstorms out there…


Winds are gusting to 35-40mph at times and the temp drop is awesome to see. Readings drop into the upper 50s behind the front as it swings through.

That sets us up for a chilly few days ahead of us, with the potential for patchy frost to develop. The Hi Res NAM continues to be the coldest model I’ve seen…

The week ahead looks absolutely awesome with temps slowly warming into the 70-75 degree range by end of the week into the start of the weekend. A cold front may bring some showers and storms our way by Sunday into Monday.

From there, it’s all about a deepening trough likely to dig into the eastern part of the country for the week leading up to Halloween…

That happens as a ridge goes up the west coast of North America, while blocking develops near Greenland. That pushes cold air into the eastern half of the United States and can sometimes be introduced by a big storm. The GFS has been pointing toward this for a while…

This kind of setup has, at least, a chance to bring some flakes into the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian mountains. The GFS…

GFS Ensembles…

That’s still a long ways out, but the signal is certainly there for a cold setup. My analogs may be onto something.

I leave you with a Hurricane heading toward Ireland…

cone graphic

While it may be extra-tropical by the time it arrives, the impact will be the same. 100mph wind gusts are possible across Ireland. Yep… It’s that kinda weather year!

I will update things again tonight, so check back. Make t a good day and take care.

2 Comments