Chilly Pattern Continues

Good Thursday to one and all. Our overall weather pattern continues to skew colder than normal and that trend carries us through next week. We may even be looking at some frost by Sunday as the next blast of chill rolls our way.

The chill that’s out there today is being accompanied by gusty showers working around a slow moving area of low pressure. These showers will slowly taper off this afternoon and evening from west to east. Some breaks in the clouds may even show up across the central and west. Highs today will be back in the mid and upper 50s for many areas…

Current Temperatures

Friday’s forecast looks great with a southwesterly wind kicking up ahead of another cold front. Temps may approach 70 in some areas.

That front swings in early Saturday and it may bring a few showers on a cold northwesterly wind…

GFS

Highs will only make the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. Widespread frost is a real threat Sunday morning and then again to start the day Monday. If the GFS is right, a killing frost is possible…

GFS 2

Next week is likely to start with a system diving in from the northwest. That should bring some chilly showers our way at some point late Monday or Tuesday. What happens after this remains a bit murky. This system is likely to deepen and close off just to our east. That could spawn a healthy storm across the east coast. The exact placement of this storm will be the determining factor on how much impact it has on our weather.

Regardless… Thermometers should still run chilly with the numbers well below normal. Check out the forecast departure a week from now…

GFS 5Have a great day and take care.

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Let’s Talk Winter

Good Wednesday to one and all. November is creeping up on us and that means winter is just around the corner. It also means the blog is about ready to kick things into high gear with multiple updates each day. In honor of our busy season ahead, I thought I would get you in the mood by talking about the winter ahead.

Before we get to the frozen talk… Here are a few nuggets about the short range forecast:

- Showers will be common today into Thursday with gusty winds and generally chilly temps. Highs will range from the mid 50s to the low 60s. We could see a few small hail producing showers during this time.

- Friday looks good ahead of another shot of chill for the weekend. Highs may stay in the 50s for Saturday and Sunday with lows dropping deep into the 30s by Sunday. Some frost is possible.

- Another chilly rain maker tries to move in here early next week. That one will have to be watched to see just how much cold air it can tap. The GFS Ensembles show temps remaining well below normal next week…

GFS 2

The pattern should throw another mild spell our way before the month is over. The latest CFS forecast shows the overall pattern skewing colder than normal through Thanksgiving…

CFS

The above model does show a mild spell or two coming during this time, but that’s not enough to outdo the colder than normal periods. One such period shows up strongly in the days leading up to Thanksgiving…

CFS 2

Once into November, we start looking out for the possibility of snow. Several of my analog years featured snows in November and a couple of them had sizable late month systems. Of course, that doesn’t mean this November will follow along, but it is something to watch for.

That’s especially true when seasonal models start pointing in that direction.  Recent runs of the CFS show the threat of snow into our region during the 10 day window from November 3-13…

CFS 3

That same model shows decent snows across much of the country in the 10 day period leading up to Thanksgiving…

CFS 4 Again, I am NOT saying those will be accurate. It’s just very interesting to see that much snow showing up that early in the season. This is especially true given what we are seeing with the early season snow cover in the northern hemisphere. It is literally off the chats at this point into October and ranks among the highest in recorded history.

That is following the trend that started in September when North America recorded the most snow cover on record…

Snow Cover

The amount of snow cover across North America and the northern hemisphere is a pretty big deal for those looking ahead toward winter. It’s normally a good indicator of a cold winter in the United States.

Are you excited, yet?

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Couple Of Ugly Days Ahead

Good Tuesday evening. Rounds of showers will continue across the region over the next few days as a huge upper low spins across the region.

GFSTemps over the next few days will be in the mid and upper 50s with a couple of low 60s around. The scattered showers will be joined by gusty winds.

I will have a full update coming later tonight and it will include A LOT of winter talk. Some interesting things are showing up.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Tuesday Storm Tracker

Good Tuesday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are marching across the bluegrass state as a powerful system works in from the west. These storms may severe with damaging wind as the primary threat. The highest potential will be across central and eastern parts of the state.

These are very slow movers that can put down a ton of water in a short amount of time. High water may become a problem in some areas.

Let’s track…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed and will send out breaking weather information through my @kentuckyweather twitter feed.

Look for another post later this evening on where we go from here.

Take care.

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Tornado Watch Along and West Of I-65

Good Monday evening, gang. Our severe weather outbreak is well underway with a squall line of thunderstorms racing across western Kentucky. Damaging winds have already been observed around the Paducah area and this line continues to roll eastward.

A TORNADO WATCH is now out for areas along and west of Interstate 65 until 1am EDT. I have you all set to track the severe weather as it rolls to the east…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Stay safe and take care.

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Severe Weather Threat Tracker

Good Monday, everyone. Warm and humid air has invaded Kentucky and that’s not a good thing. This will help fire up rounds of strong and severe thunderstorms as a powerhouse system moves our way. This is all part of our very active pattern that looks to grow much colder later this week into next.

Today’s storms will be scattered early in the day and a few of those could be strong. A squall line of storms will roll into western Kentucky later in the day and that SLOWLY rolls eastward tonight into Tuesday. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible with this line. It’s also a slow mover, so flooding rains will be possible. Your trackers in a bit.

I have no changes to my week long ideas of an upper low closing off across the region for Wednesday and Thursday…

EuroChilly showers and gusty winds will highlight both of those days. Highs should mainly run in the 50s.

Another shot of chill arrives this weekend as a front passes through on Saturday…

Euro 2Temps may reach the upper 30s by Sunday morning with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

There continues to be a tremendous amount of blocking showing up across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. That may deliver another slow moving storm system that takes on a colder look about a week from now…

Euro 3Interesting.

Let’s get back to what we have out there today… the potential for severe weather. Your trackers…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Watching The Severe Storms Threat

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of thunderstorms will increase across Kentucky today and some of these could be on the strong or severe side. This begins a three day period where we have to be on guard for the possibility of severe weather.

The stronger storms out there late today could feature large hail and high winds. A surge of warm and unstable air is moving in and that can sometimes create a little spin in the atmosphere. I will have your tracking toys in just a bit.

The bigger action comes with a significant storm system sweeping our way late Monday into Tuesday. This will be a slow mover with rounds of strong and severe storms possible ahead of it. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible during this time. The individual threats will have to be fine-tuned as we get closer.

Heavy rainfall is also a very good bet and that could lead to high water issues for some.

The models continue to show this system becoming cut-off from the main flow for the middle and end of the week…

Euro 2 Euro 3

Wet, windy and chilly weather will be common around here during that time. Another shot of chill will follow that up by next weekend.

I have all your tracking tools for today’s storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Make it a great day and take care.

10 Comments

Very Active Setup Continues

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. October is normally a quiet and calm month for the most part around here. This October has been anything but that with rounds of rain and storms and even an historic tornado outbreak. Guess what? The active pattern continues and we could have another round of severe weather early next week.

There is a little bit of good news with a break in the rain for some today. Our front sags just a bit to the south and that may take the steady rains into Tennessee. That means some drying is possible into the afternoon and evening. The farther south you live, the greater the chance for showers today.

Current Temperatures

Scattered showers and storms work back in later tonight into Sunday with some locally heavy rains. Storms will really increase Sunday night and Monday well ahead of of a strong storm system. That system arrives late Monday into Tuesday…

Euro 4This has the look of a severe weather maker and that is something we will need to be on guard for. The Storm Prediction Center already has much of the region in the slight risk for severe weather on Monday…

I will update that threat as we get closer. That’s also a lot of rain showing up that could lead to some high water issues.

It’s looking more and more like this system will become cutoff from the main flow for the middle and end of next week…

Euro 3

Euro If that happens… nasty weather is a good bet with shower, chilly temps and gusty winds.

Have a great day and take care.

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Trackin Heavy Rain and Storms

Good Friday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms continue to rumble across the bluegrass state and this is a sign of things to come. A stationary front and waves of low pressure will combine forces to create waves of heavy rainfall that will continue into the first half of next week.

Here’s a breakdown of the weekend:

- Today will feature rounds of showers and storms with heavy rainfall. Some areas could pick up 1″-2″ through tonight. Find the ponchos if you’re heading out to a high school football game.

- Saturday will find this boundary drifting a bit to the south. That may allow for some temporary drying across much of the area in the afternoon and evening.

- Showers and storms should return with heavy rain possible on Sunday.

The really active part of this pattern may be with us from late Monday into Tuesday. This is a very strong storm system that may allow for strong or severe storms to develop late Monday into Monday night as it works in from the west…

Euro

That will be something for us to keep a very close eye on. That would also bring torrential rains back into the region and the models continue to spit out very high totals through Tuesday…

Euro 2Chilly winds will blow behind this departing storm system late Tuesday into Wednesday with highs that may not get out of the 50s.

Temps will likely rebound after that, but a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific argues for another big dip in the jet stream late next weekend into the following week.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Heavy Rain and Storms Move In

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are taking aim at the bluegrass state as we go into an extended period of soggy weather. All signs continue to point toward several inches of rain falling over the next week. That could lead to high water issues.

Scattered showers and storms continue to push into the region from west to east today. This action will increase later this evening into tonight when heavy rain becomes more of an issue.

The stalled out front will hang tough on top of the region through the weekend as waves of low pressure work along the boundary. That leads to a weekend washout…

GFSThe models then continue to key on a stronger system moving in early next week. The European Model is cutting this thing off right on top of Kentucky…

Euro 2 Strong storms will be possible ahead of that system with torrential rainfall possible as the system slows down. The rainfall numbers from that same computer model are crazy…

Euro 3

That would lead to an increase in the flooding threat. Again… that’s not all coming at one time, but over the next week.

Let’s track today’s rain into town…

Have a great day and take care.

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