Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening, everyone. Heavy rain and high winds are arriving right on cue. Gusts to 50mph will be possible overnight into Monday as a powerful storm works into the Great Lakes.

I continue to be focused on the Wednesday through Thanksgiving period for the potential for winter weather. We continue to see the models cranking up a big east coast winter storm. Each run edges this bad boy a little farther west and that’s a trend we may see some more of over the next few days.

The European Model shows the snow shield with this storm crossing eastern Kentucky…

Euro

That’s a monster storm rolling up the east coast and will cause travel nightmares on the busiest travel day of the year. You can also see the second system diving at us from the northwest with some light snow. Here’s the European Model snow forecast…

Euro 2

The late day GFS is continues to run straight toward the European Model…

GFS

It is also bringing the accumulating snows from that storm across southeastern Kentucky…

GFS Snow

As I said a few days ago, the setup was there for a much bigger storm system and it wouldn’t take much to get it to impact Kentucky.

Now… does the infamous northwest trend on storms kick in at this point? If so, it’s a much bigger impact on our weather. That is a big IF at this point, but it is certainly something to watch.

I will have another update later tonight. Take care.

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Wind and Rain On The Increase

Good Sunday, everyone. High winds and heavy rain are blowing into the bluegrass state this afternoon ahead of a powerful low pressure. Wind gusts of 40mph-50mph will be possible late tonight into Monday as the cold front sweeps in.

Heavy rain may even bring some thunder our way…

Sustained Winds

I have no changes to my thoughts on the Thanksgiving holiday period. The GFS is doing what the GFS does and that’s trend toward the European Model late in the game. The last two runs of the GFS bring a major winter storm up the east coast Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning. This storm grazes far southeastern Ky with some snow as a light snow maker swings across the rest of the state.

GFS Snow 2 GFS Snow

The usual westward correction of the models COULD put parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky more in play. That’s something to watch for.

I’ll update things later today. Take care.

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High Wind Potential

Good Sunday, everyone. We have some big winds on the way to the bluegrass state today into Monday. I’ve been setting this up for the past several days, but the winds look a little stronger than I thought. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some gusts nearing 50mph at times for a few areas. Moral of the story… batten down the hatches.

A strengthening area of low pressure works northward into the Great Lakes tonight and Monday. We’re on the mild and wet side of this system initially. Heavy rains will increase quickly today and some rumbles of thunder will be possible.

Sustained Winds

The Highest wind gusts are likely to come late tonight into Monday as the actual cold front moves through here. You can see how these gusts REALLY crank behind the front…

NAM

This is when temps begin to tank in just a matter of hours. Monday starts mild and ends with cold air returning…

GFS

The cold this coming week isn’t nearly as cold or extreme as what we just went through. Then again, what would be in November?

I continue to watch a potential east coast storm system from Wednesday into Thanksgiving. The European Model continues to brush southeastern Kentucky with some snow…

Euro 2

The GFS is now seeing the storm…

GFS 2

The model runs 4 times a day and will sometimes give you 4 different ideas on what should happen. I know it’s about to be replaced soon by the “new” GFS, but the new version hasn’t impressed me at all. It might even be a tad worse from what I’ve seen.

Anyway, the GFS tries to scrape southeastern Kentucky with a touch of snow. It then zips that storm to the northeast and shows a weak system producing some light snow for Thanksgiving Day…

GFS 3The Canadian Model says that system doesn’t arrive until Friday and unleashes another surge of arctic temps. Check out the Friday night lows from that model…

Canadian

The European Model brings the same arctic front in here Friday with some flakes along for the ride.

Per my winter forecast, this pattern should relax some in the early part of December. That’s simply a reload of what is likely to turn into another prolonged, harsh period of winter from the second half of December into January.

I will have updates later today. Take care.

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Saturday Evening Quickie

Good evening, gang. Rain and wind are about to surge in here for Sunday, but it’s all eyes on Thanksgiving week. The only consistent model right now is the European. The GFS has been all over the place and it’s blind followers are likely in trouble this coming week. That said, the model is trending toward the European.

Here’s the latest run of the Euro…

Euro

That’s a huge winter storm rolling up the east coast that tries to snow some snow into eastern Kentucky. That is a mess of a storm for the busiest travel day of the year.

The model still has the second system diving in here from the northwest Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. That brings a period of light snow our way with cold temps for turkey day.

A full update comes tonight. Take care.

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Old Man Winter Takes The Weekend Off

Good Saturday, everyone. We FINALLY have some milder air blowing across the bluegrass state this weekend. Old Man Winter packed a few bags and left town for the weekend. That’s gives us the chance to thaw out from what has been a history making cold wave.

Temps today will warm well into the 50s for many with 60 possible in the west and south. There is still the chance for a shower or two, but most areas will see a mix of sun and clouds. Overall, today looks like a darn nice weather day to get outside and enjoy.

Sunday will find winds cranking up as showers and rumbles of thunder roll in from south to north. The action kicks into high gear during the afternoon and evening hours. The Hi Res NAM shows a lot of action on the simulated radar…

NAM

Locally heavy rainfall is a good bet. Winds will be super gusty and could reach 40mph at times Sunday night.

That system lifts to our north Sunday night and Monday, allowing colder air to filter in from the west and northwest. Some of the models suggest we get cold enough for some snowflakes by Monday evening…

GFS 3

The models continue to go jump around on what to do for the Thanksgiving holiday period. These swings are anticipated with so much going on in the atmosphere. The European Model continues to advertise a big east coast storm with another system diving in from behind it across our region. These two get VERY close to hooking up on the latest run…

Euro

That’s something to keep a super duper close eye on in the coming days. It wouldn’t take much to get that to have more than a light snow and cold impact on our weather.

Updates later today. Take care.

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Friday Evening Update

Good evening, all. Our weekend is starting off on a cold note, but will turn much milder! That mild air comes with a price with rain and wind increasing on Sunday. This will lead us back into a wintry pattern for Thanksgiving week.

A couple of showers will try to move in tonight and early Saturday. I still think a brief period of frozen precipitation is possible across northern parts of the state. That’s something to keep a close eye on before milder air fights in for Saturday.

I’m also keeping watch on the upcoming busy Thanksgiving travel period. A lot is going on in the atmosphere and the models are responding in the way I said they would… with trouble. They are having a difficult time in determining which system to develop and which system blows up.

The GFS Ensembles show the possibility of a more phased system by late Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Check out how energy dives in from Canada and merges with a disturbance moving in from the south…

Euro

Some kind of system should come out of all that, but the details are still murky to say the least. Most models do agree that some snow will be possible on Thanksgiving…

GFS 2

As always… we shall see.

Take care.

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Tracking The Thanksgiving Week Winter Potential

Good Friday, everyone. We’ve made it to the final day of a brutally cold week across the bluegrass state. The month as a whole continues to be on a record cold pace. Some milder air this weekend will cut into that somewhat, but the cold returns for Thanksgiving week. The question is… will it bring more winter weather with it? Let me answer that by saying… probably.

Let’s start with what we have out there today and that’s another cold one. Highs for many will be in the mid and upper 30s, but the south and west will hit the 40s.

Clouds will increase late in the day as moisture moves in for early Saturday. There isn’t a lot of juice with this and only a light shower or two is possible on Saturday as temps warm into the 50s. A touch of sleet is still possible in the north very early Saturday. Again… the day doesn’t look too bad at all!

Temps by Sunday surge toward 60 in several spots on a gusty southwesterly wind. That wind cranks up the deeper we get into the day and night. Gusts could hit 40mph at times as a strong low passes by to our west. Rounds of heavy rain sweep in during the day and some thunder is even possible.

Temps will begin to fall on Monday as colder air makes a return visit. This air grows colder the deeper we get into the Thanksgiving holiday period as arctic air tries to get involved… again.

The models are trying to bring a few flakes into town on Wednesday, but the bigger system may show up beyond that. The GFS is advertising a snow maker…

GFS

The same model run then follows that up with another potential snow maker and a blast of arctic air for the end of the holiday weekend…

GFS 3

Here’s how the GFS says Hello, December…

GFS 2

There are several systems diving in from the northwest next week into the following weekend. The models are going to go back and forth on which one of these develops into something, or passes harmlessly into the cold night. All I can tell you is it will be cold and there is the potential for some winter weather. We will fine tune all that as we get closer.

The winter forecast aired last night on WKYT-TV. Here’s a link to check out the “made for tv” version…

You can also get a little more insight from my other blog at Kentucky.com…

http://weather.bloginky.com/2014/11/20/the-winter-forecast-2/

I will have updates later today. Take care.

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Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, all. Your friendly weatherdude is dropping by for a short update that doesn’t include a whole lot of changes. The weekend continues to look milder with a lot of wind and ran rolling in by Sunday.

That takes us into Thanksgiving week and the potential for more cold shots to roll our way. The European Ensembles show some pretty deep troughs digging in…

Euro

Winter weather is certainly possible over the long holiday travel period. I will focus more on that with the overnight update.

Take care.

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Arctic Air Presses In

Good Thursday afternoon. The arctic front continues to SLOWLY push across southern and southeastern Kentucky. That’s allowing for temps in those regions to be several degrees warmer than areas to the north.

Current temperatures

Gusty winds are making it feel a whole lot colder than any of the numbers showing up. Teens show up again tonight in several places.

The forecast for the weekend continues to feature a big rain and wind maker rolling through here. Sunday looks just plain old nasty with the wind and heavy rains.

Arctic cold looks to return for Thanksgiving week. The first piece comes in behind the departing Sunday storm system, but it’s not as cold as what comes in over the long holiday weekend. The models continue to key on a system diving in from the northwest by Wednesday of Thursday.

The Canadian says it arrives on the busiest travel day of the year…

Canadian

The GFS says Gobble Gobble…

GFS

A bigger system will try to develop later in the holiday weekend.

Enjoy the rest of the afternoon and take care.

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A Look At Thanksgiving Week

Good Thursday to one and all. Arctic air continues to dominate the weather pattern across the bluegrass state. November is on the way to becoming one of the coldest on record for parts of the region. We do have a very brief mild up that comes with a lot of weekend rain and wind, but the cold returns for Thanksgiving week.

Yet another blast of arctic air moved in last night and is with us today into Friday. Highs today will range from the upper 20s in the north to the mid and upper 30s in the far south and west. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder as a few snow flurries pass by.

Current temperatures

Temps by Friday morning will drop into the teens for many with afternoon readings hitting the mid and upper 30s. Clouds will increase during the afternoon as milder air pushes in for the weekend. A few showers try to develop late Friday night into Saturday and the leading edge of those may contain a touch of sleet.

The milder air will be accompanied by a big wind and rain maker for Sunday as low pressure lifts northward to our west.

GFS

Heavy rain and thunder will be common as winds really crank up. Gusts to 40mph will be possible as that storm wraps up into Sunday night and Monday. Much colder air follows that up into Tuesday…

GFS 2

The cold looks to hold tough right on through the big Thanksgiving holiday weekend and travel period. Can we get some wintry weather with it? That’s certainly a possibility and one to keep watch on as we roll forward. The new GFS shows a clipper system unleashing another arctic blast…

GFS 3

That’s some very cold air pushing back in here behind that system…

GFS 4

The renewed cold period for Thanksgiving week is backed up by the latest from the CFS. It shows temps well below normal through the end of the month…

CFS

The new run also shows a slightly colder than normal December…

CFS 3

That changes around from run to run, but I actually think this run holds some merit with a back and forth month averaging slightly on the cold side.

The same model run likes the snow chances for the period that includes Christmas…

CFS 2

The winter forecast comes your way today at 5pm on WKYT-TV. Be there or get no snow this winter! ;)

I will have updates later today. Take care.

 

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