Time posted: 2:13 am

Stormy Pattern Rolls On

Good Thursday, friends and neighbors. A scattering of storms will continue to rumble across the region today as our stormy setup rolls on. Overall, this looks like a fairly busy into the first half, at least, of May. If some of my analogs are correct, the second half of the month may bring a burst of severe weather.

Today’s scattered showers and storms won’t be as strong or as widespread as the past few days…

Friday’s weather looks nice with temps in the 70s with a partly sunny sky. Things go downhill quickly on Saturday as another storm system makes a run at us. This will bring additional rounds of showers and storms through Sunday night. Some of those could be strong, but the heavy rain threat may be the one to watch.

MUCH cooler air comes in next week as the European Model tries to throw another system into the region by Tuesday…


That unleashes a nasty upper level system to dive in behind it for the middle of the week…


This would be very, very chilly air with even a few showers diving in…

Euro 2

As that pulls away, it might open the door for another big rain and thunderstorm maker. The GFS has been indicating this potential for Kentucky Derby Weekend…


The rainfall forecast for the next two weeks from the same GFS keeps the active look going strong…

GFS Rain

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

Tracking More Storms

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to rumble across the region, and some of these could be strong or severe. This is all part of a very stormy setup that carries us through the upcoming weekend.

Today’s storms may be more prominent across the southern half of the state to begin the day. These storms will slowly lift back to the north into the evening hours. These storms could pack some high winds and hail. The main threat may, again, come from heavy rains.

A few more storms will be around on Thursday with some dry weather moving in on Friday. Skies look to be partly to mostly sunny with just the smallest chance for a shower or storm.

Storms ramp back up for the weekend as a stronger storm system moves in from the southwest…


That has the potential to bring additional strong storms and heavy rains to the region through Sunday night. The GFS rainfall forecast from today through Sunday night is impressive…

GFS Rain

Cooler air sweeps in for the first half of Kentucky Derby week.

I leave you with your daily dose of tracking toys…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.


Time posted: 4:00 am

Rounds Of Storms Move In

Good Tuesday, folks. I’m going to keep this update rather short and to the point, since I think we’ve done a good job setting this pattern up over the past few weeks. Rounds of showers and storms will target the region over the next week and change.

The first round arrives later today then we will see more stormy action through Thursday. Any cluster of storms could be strong or severe with damaging winds the main player. Rainfall through this time could really add up for some areas. Here’s the NAM…

NAMAnother potent system brings more storms to the region this weekend. That could also create some strong storms and torrential rains.

The pattern looks ripe for additional big ticket storm makers over the next few weeks, and the models continue to key in on the heavy ran threat…

GFSI’ll have updates as needed later today. Until then, let’s do some tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Enjoy the day and take care.


Time posted: 12:28 am

A Very Stormy Pattern Ahead

Good Monday to one and all. It’s another warm day in the bluegrass state, but I’m focusing on a very busy pattern on the way for the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that can deliver rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain numbers. It may also bring a shot of chilly air during the first week of May.

Let’s get into it…

Highs today range from the upper 70s to low 80s with just a small threat for a shower or storm going up.

From here, the pattern looks stormy for much of the eastern half of the country…

Special 2

The first system to bring us some showers and storms arrives late Tuesday and carries us through Thursday…


A few strong or severe storms will be possible during this time with heavy rainfall possible. The Hi Resolution NAM shows a torrential rain threat from a cluster of Tuesday night storms…


The regular run of the NAM through Wednesday night shows the heavy rain threat to be more expansive…


All signs continue to point toward a bigger storm system impacting the region next weekend…


Strong to severe storms and very heavy rains are very possible with that type a system.

Rainfall numbers over the next 10 days show the potential for a lot of action from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley…


Once the system from next weekend rolls through, temperatures are likely to tank into Kentucky Derby week…

Euro 3

That’s a lot of real estate with well below normal temperatures showing up. As a matter of fact, it could get cold enough for a kiss of frost…


Looking beyond that shot of chill, the models keep a very active pattern going…


Given the pattern I’ve been hawking and the current setup on the models, I doubt too many people are complaining about it being dry by the middle of May. Wait… What am I saying? Certain people claim it’s dry even when we are in the middle of our wettest year on record. 😉

Make it a great Monday and take care.


Time posted: 1:45 am

Pattern Turns Much More Active

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another gorgeous weather day in the works across the Commonwealth. Much of the past month has featured a lot of nice days. That may be about to change as our pattern tries to turn much more active over the next few weeks.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions should be noted on Monday with a small storm threat late in the afternoon and evening.

From there, we see a healthy temperature gradient setting up across the country. Take a look at this…


We will have a boundary draped across the region with a few waves of low pressure working through the region. That means an increase in showers and storms, with the potential for a few strong boomers. The first system impacts the region from late Tuesday through Thursday…


A much stronger system is likely to move in here next weekend…

Euro 2

That storm has been well signaled by the models for a while now, and it could be a strong or severe thunderstorm maker. It could also put down quite a bit of rain as we flip the calendar from April to May.

Check out the colder than normal temps coming in behind that…

Euro 3

The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL show a deep trough digging into the eastern part of the country for Kentucky Derby week…

Euro 4

Enjoy the day and take care.