A “Pot Of Chili” Watch For The Weekend

Good Mondayto one and all. Early fall is in the air, but we are likely to see a much bigger push of cool temps late this week into the coming weekend. It will bring a little taste of October our way and that’s why the blog is issuing a one of a kind watch…

Pot Of ChiliThe cool temps of fall usually lead to me eating a lot of chili, so the watch is certainly appropriate. If I feel more confident in the coming days… I will upgrade to Alert status. :)

More on that in a moment. We have some showers and storms to keep a close eye on today. The setup will favor much of the action across eastern and southeastern Ky, but a few could slip a little farther west. Some of these storms could drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time and that could lead to some high water issues.

A big blast of fall chill is moving into the country over the next few days. The cold front introducing the chill will move toward Kentucky by Thursday…

 

GFSShowers and thunderstorms will be a good bet and we could see a few strong storms as the front pushes in. These kinds of fronts usually bring gusty winds as they blow through.

That system is likely to put down some snow across the Rockies into the northern plains. Check out the areas getting snow on the GFS over the next week…

GFS 5

Temps coming in behind the front will be well below normal for much of the country this week. The core of the cool works into our region by the weekend into next week…

GFS 3Highs over the weekend will generally range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the state. Lows will hit the 40s and could drop toward the low 40s for some areas…

GFS 2

 

A reinforcing shot of cool air is likely to move in behind another storm system into the first part of next week…

GFS 4Again… I still don’t think this is a true start to full-time fall weather.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking Big Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Much better weather is in store for the region today and this is likely just a little preview of what’s coming our way. I’m tracking a big blast of fall temperatures coming by the end of the week into next weekend. That is likely to be the coolest air we’ve had since back in spring.

Today will feature partly sunny skies across most of the region. I say most because leftover moisture may fire up a scattered shower or thunderstorm in the south and southeast. Highs today will should stay in the 70s for a lot of folks.

Current Temperatures

Temps by Monday morning will be on the cool side with low and middle 50s showing up. The rest of the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with the threat for a shower or storm in the east and southeast. Highs will hit the upper 70s and low 80s.

We will see a better chance for scattered storms around later Tuesday into Wednesday as temps spike back into the 80s.

That will set the stage for a powerhouse storm system to develop across the plains and work into the Great Lakes. Snow is likely on the backside of this system with strong and severe storms ahead of it. That’s something we will have to watch for by Thursday.

The air coming in behind that bad boy is VERY impressive for this early in fall…

Euro 3 That really is a massive area of high pressure coming in for the weekend. That has the potential to bring record lows from the Rockies all the way into our region and even into the northeast.

Can you handle highs in the 60s on the second weekend of September? That’s how things are looking right now…

EuroThe cooler than normal weather is likely to stick around into the following week. I don’t think this is a true early start to full blown autumn, though. I do think this is a warning shot from our pattern. Maybe I should call it a reminder shot, instead, because it’s reminding us how little the overall pattern has changed since last fall.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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More Storms Before Fall Changes Arrive

Good Saturday, friends. A strong cold front is crossing the bluegrass state today and is bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is some good news coming in behind it as much better air moves in for Sunday. This looks to be just a little preview of what’s on the way for late next week into next weekend.

Today is not going to be a total washout, but scattered showers and storms will be on the move. These storms will contain locally heavy rains and a lot of lightning.

 

 

Sunday’s weather looks much, much better with lower humidity levels and highs in the upper 70s for many. There is still the smallest chance for a lingering shower in the southeast.

The big changes come next week when an even stronger cold front dives in from the northwest. This front is likely to have waves of heavy rain producing showers and storms ahead of it from late Tuesday through Thursday. The main story is what comes behind it… a blast of fall air.

Check out how far below normal the temps are from the GFS…

GFS 5

If the models are to be believed… highs on a few days may not get out of the 60s…

GFS

Lows next weekend should be able to drop well into the 40s across our region.

The GFS Ensembles suggest the cool weather will stick around for a while. Check out the 5 day average temperature anomaly forecast…

GFS 3 GFS 4Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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Storming Into A Cool Pattern

Good Friday, everyone. The weather pattern for the past month has been as busy as you will ever see this time of year. Guess what? This looks to continue through the next few weeks, but it will likely come with a twist. Blasts of fall air look to get into the mix.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

Temps will be super steamy with mid and upper 80s in the east with low 90s in the west. A scattered shower or thunderstorm will develop as the day wears on. That could impact a few high school football games.

Showers and storms will be likely on Saturday as a cold front slips in from the northwest. It’s not going to rain all day, but keep the umbrella or poncho handy. That front works to our east and south into early Sunday with a leftover shower possible in the east on Sunday. Highs look to be in the upper 70s to around 80 across the state.

Scattered showers and storms work back in early next week and this may set the stage for another round of torrential rains by the middle and end of the week. That’s when we find ourselves in the transition zone from summer to fall. Torrential rain producing thunderstorms are a good bet. Look at the 7 day rain numbers…

GFS 4

That’s a setup that COULD cause some issues and one we need to keep a close eye on. The air that sweeps in behind this system is straight out of the middle or end of October…

GFS 2

The GFS model is going crazy with the potential for record cold next weekend. Check out some of the forecast lows…

GFS 3

That would be incredible to see for this time of year. Again… it may be too cold, but the overall setup has a lot of other model support. You may even hear about snow in the Rockies and the far northern plains. Wow.

The GFS says another big shot of chilly air comes in behind that the following week…

GFS 5Have a great Friday and take care.

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Changes Showing Up

Good Thursday, everyone. Our pattern has been stuck on stormy for a long while, but subtle signs of change are showing up in the longer run. Unfortunately, that doesn’t really help us out in the short term as more showers and storms are on the way. All isn’t totally lost… I do have some pleasant temps late in the weekend.

Moisture today looks to be a bit higher than I thought it would be a few days ago. That means a better chance for a shower or storm will be across central and eastern parts of the state. Locally heavy downpours will be possible in the southeast. Temps will likely be held in check in these areas.

Current Temperatures

The threat for showers and storms will increase again on Friday as a cold front nears from the northwest. That front will bring widespread showers and storms on Saturday…

Euro

The models are speeding up the passage of the front and that should lead to decreasing rain chances from northwest to southeast by the evening. That’s also a nice shot of air coming in behind the front for the first Sunday of the NFL. Check out highs from the GFS…

GFS

That looks to come with a partly sunny sky. Lows Sunday into Monday will drop toward the low and middle 50s.

Things will turn stormy again by the middle of next week. This is where changes start to show up. Many of the medium range models are trying to develop a significant dip in the jet stream by the end of next week into the following weekend. The timing on these things is always off from this far out and the tropics can really foul things up.

Still… the GFS tries to bring record cold to the plains and east…

GFS 3I am a long way from biting on THAT much cold around here, but the pattern looks to be loaded with cold blasts from Canada into the states in the coming weeks. Hasn’t that been the case since last Fall? There simply has not been a lot of change in this setup that gave us the recent harsh winter. Hmmm… No changes… fall and winter just around the corner. ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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A Small Break For Some

Good Wednesday to one and all. The middle of our shortened work week is bringing many of us a small break in the stormy weather pattern. This means we get a couple of days of mainly dry weather. Don’t let it spoil you… rounds of showers and storms return for the upcoming weekend.

A weak cold front has slipped just to the south of the state today and is bringing in some dryer air. This dry air will make for a fairly comfy day with low and mid 80s for many with a mix of sun and clouds. There is still the chance for showers and storms to go up across the south and east. Some of the late night model runs are pretty aggressive with rain hanging tough in these areas.

Current Temperatures

Thursday will see temps and humidity levels on the rise. The west should hit 90 with mid and upper 80s across central and eastern Kentucky. Once again, a few showers and storms will be possible. Higher chances will be in the south and east.

Storm chances increase on Friday as our stormy pattern returns. Showers and storms look to become widespread as we roll our way into Saturday…

GFS

Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms will be possible. Some storms will linger into Sunday as a cold front sinks in from the northwest. That will introduce some pleasant temps to our region late Sunday and Monday.

That nice weather won’t last long as more storms sweep in by the middle of next week. This is when the pattern threatens to turn very stormy…

 

GFS 3

That setup comes as we find our region sandwiched between heat in the southeast and chilly air in the northern plains. That should send a shot of cool our way at some point late next week or the following weekend. The tropics may have something to say about that. The GFS and European Models are both showing another tropical system developing in the Gulf…

Euro 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Tuesday Thunder Tracker

Good Tuesday, everyone. The Labor Day Weekend is now in our rear view mirror and it’s full steam ahead into September. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been common of late and we have more of the same on the way today. The overall pattern looks to continue to be skewed stormy over the next few weeks. Yippee, more rain… said no one.

Today’s storms will be working in ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms could be strong or locally severe. High winds and hail would encompass the severe threat. All of the showers and storms will have the potential to put down very heavy rains. I have your storm trackers at the end of this update.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday as steamy temps return. This will set the stage for more widespread showers and storms coming our way this weekend…

Euro This has the making of another decent rain maker and could also spawn a few strong storms across our region. Pleasant temps will filter in behind that front for the end of the weekend into early next week.

The pattern later next week is likely to feature quite the setup across North America. It’s one that may place us between the heat in the southeast and cold air moving into the north…

Euro 2That’s a pretty energetic jet stream and likely means additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Speaking of thunderstorms, let’s track…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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September Starts Stormy

Good Monday and Happy Labor Day. The ninth month of the year is upon is and things are starting out with a few storms. Rounds of showers and storms have been common this summer and that pattern is rolling into early fall. Remember, today is the start of meteorological fall. You now have my permission to go shopping for mums. :)

Showers and storms today won’t be as widespread as what we had Saturday and Sunday. We will see some action out there, but you will also get some dry times to go along with the humid conditions.

A cold front rolls our way later tonight into Tuesday. That will fire off another round of showers and storms…

NAM A few strong storms will be possible as that front swings through. It won’t have much cool air coming in behind it. As a matter of fact, things will be steamy for the second half of the week and that should fuel a few more storms.

A greater threat for showers and storms will swing in here by Friday and Saturday…

GFS 2

That’s ahead of a stronger front that will have a bigger push of cooler air coming in behind it. It could also be a strong storm maker around here. Overall, the first few weeks of September should run above normal. That shows up well on the CFS…

CFSThat same model run shows things averaging cooler later in the month…

CFS 2Now that we are into September, I will start focusing more and more on the fall and winter patterns. That’s right… tell your family, friends, neighbors, or just a random person off the street. Winter talk is back on the blog!

Elf

Buddy 2

I leave you with some Labor Day radars..

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy Rain and Storms Tracker

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to dump heavy amounts of rain on the commonwealth. These storms will likely lead to additional high water issues in some areas. If you are thinking the flip of the calendar to September means things will turn dry… thing again. More boomers are head of us in the next week, at least.

Watch for the potential for flash flooding today. These storms are loaded with tropical moisture and can easily dump 2 or 3 inches in a short amount of time.

The threat for scattered storms will take us into Labor Day, but some dry hours are a good bet. Another round of heavy rain producing thunderstorms arrives Monday night and takes us through Tuesday. The pattern continues to favor waves of storms coming at us in the week ahead. Check out the rainfall forecast from the Canadian and European models…

Canadian Euro

General rainfall forecasts from models don’t really take into account torrential rain totals that come from individual thunderstorms. This is also a pattern that could eventually feature a tropical system down in the Gulf. Some of my analog years had a tropical system impacting our weather later in September. We shall see.

Let’s track some storms…

 

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Heavy Rain Threat Increasing

Good Saturday evening, gang. Torrential rain producing showers and thunderstorms have been common across western Kentucky today. Paducah is already up to their wettest August day on record with 4.49″ of rain. This is now the wettest August on record for Paducah. Lexington, Louisville and Bowling Green are already well into the top 10 and will climb their respective ladders through Sunday.

Heavy rain is going to keep increasing across the state this evening and that carries through tonight and Sunday. Fairly widespread 1″-2″ totals will be likely with local amounts doubling that. This will lead to the threat for high water issues during this time.

Some strong storms will also be possible and I have you set to keep tracking the action…

 

 

Rainfall Since Midnight

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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