Category Archives: Uncategorized

Time posted: 1:38 am

Mr. Freeze Pays A Visit

Good Sunday, everyone. Our old friend Mr. Freeze is back in the bluegrass state for the next couple of mornings. Many areas have already experienced a light freeze, but this one will pretty much finish off the growing season. As we look ahead, a very active pattern is evolving for the final week of October.

Our Sunday is starting with a freeze in many areas of Kentucky. The rest of the day looks really good, but cold. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s with almost full sun. Lows by Monday morning are back into the upper 20s and low 30s for many, bringing another freeze.

The first half of the week ahead looks really, really good! Frosty cold mornings will be followed by cool and dry afternoons. All of this as the fall colors begin to finally take off.

The setup for the final week of October is one  that will feature a major amplification in our jet stream.

This allows for big storm systems to develop, with potential impacts from each system really hard to determine from a week or so out.

The latest seasonal run of the European Model has a similar winter look as some of the other seasonal runs I’ve been sharing with you over the past few weeks.

We are looking at the average 500mb monthly anomalies on the maps below and they show a clear deep trough in the east and ridge in the west…

November has a weak trough developing in the east…

December goes bonkers with the trough…

That would certainly make for a very cold and, likely, snowy run up to Christmas.

The trough isn’t as deep in January, but it’s still there…

It snaps back in a big way for February…

And it continues into March…

If it pans out, that would certainly be one heck of a winter for much of the country!

I will be talking more about winter in the week ahead, including showing some of the driving forces I’m finding.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 3:00 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Winds are really cranking as we get set for a big time fall cold front to slam in here. This will bring a broken line of showers with it this evening, but the winds and cold steal the weather show.

Here’s your interactive radar to track the action…

Winds may reach 40mph at times as the front moves through. Strong northwesterly winds tonight may try to pick up a touch of moisture from Lake Michigan and bring it as far south as the bluegrass state. I still cannot rule out a snow flurry or two from this, with the best chance being in the southeastern mountains. That said, you can see the “lake flake” plume into parts of northern Kentucky…

Temps overnight drop into the mid and upper 20s for some, setting the stage for a freeze…

Wind chill numbers will be in low 20s at times to begin the day. Another freeze is likely Sunday night, with sun and upper 40s to low 50s in between.

The setup for the final week of October continues to look very amplified…

Have a great rest of the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

A Strong Fall Front Arrives

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a powerhouse of a cold front working into the bluegrass state later today. This boundary will crash through here and bring a healthy blast of cold air. There’s even the slight risk for the first snow flurry of the season to show up in the east.

Our day begins with departing showers as skies slowly become party sunny. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted this afternoon with isolated showers around. As the front slams in this evening, a broken line of very gusty showers will move through…

Gusty winds will crank and may reach 30mph-40mph at times. As the front moves through, temps drop some 10-20 degrees in an hour or so. Gusty northwesterly winds will then kick in and that’s a flow that can throw a few sprinkles or snow flurries into the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Mountains…

Most of that stays north and east of Kentucky, but A flake or two may get very close to us. The best chance for a flake is across the southeast…

Temps by Sunday morning range from the middle 20s to low 30s. Wind chills will be even colder. Sunny skies will only manage to warm us into the upper 40s and low 50s. Gusty winds make it feel colder.

Next week starts with another freeze Monday morning, but some pretty nice weather is on tap through the middle of the week. This actually looks VERY nice!

Late next week into the following week, we begin to see some major buckles in the jet stream…

That can fire up several big, slow-moving storm systems…

I may throw you another update later today. On Sunday, I will show you a new seasonal model for the winter ahead. It’s an attention getter. 😉

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Time posted: 12:28 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We have rain pressing into the state through the rest of your day, but the focus is on a pretty wild setup for later Saturday into Saturday night. This is courtesy of a strong cold front dropping into the state from the northwest.

That front slams in here late Saturday afternoon and evening and will have VERY gusty winds ahead of it and behind it. Gusts may exceed 40mph at times…

Temps crash from the upper 50s and low 60s during the afternoon into the upper 30s by late evening. A strong northwesterly wind flow kicks in behind the front and that may spit out some sprinkles or snow flurries across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains Saturday night. While the best chance is to our north and east, I can’t rule out a few flakes wandering into the eastern half of the state. The HI Res NAM shows this…

The West Virginia Mountains could do very well in this type of flow.

Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the upper 20s to near 30 for much of the state…

That’s going to be a healthy freeze. Wind chills may reach the low 20s at times. Yowza!

Rain continues to roll across the region from west to east this evening. Here’s your interactive radar to track it all…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Make it a  good rest of your Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:11 am

Rain Introduces Another Cold Blast

Good Friday, everyone. Rain rolls into Kentucky later today ahead of a system that will bring even colder air our way later this weekend. This continues to be part of pretty active setup that threatens to develop a big system for the final week of the month.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. A touch of frost starts the day with temps in the 30s. Clouds will quickly increase as rain develops during the afternoon and evening. That may mean some soggy high school football games…

Temps ahead of the rain will spike into the 60s, then drop as the drops start falling.

Saturday is an interesting day with gusty winds and another front dropping in during the evening. That front may bring a gusty round of showers in here. The NAM is trying its very best to spit out an overnight flake in the mountains of southeastern Kentucky…

The GFS is seeing the flake action just to our north and east…

Temps crash from northwest to southeast during the evening as it turns cold. This sets the stage for temps to tank by Sunday morning with readings in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds may gust from 30-40mph at times.

Wind chills are going to come into play during this time. Watch the dramatic drop from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning…

Ok… That’s impressive!

Sunday afternoon looks nice and chilly with upper 40s to low 50s for highs. Winds will make it feel chillier than that.

The first half of next week looks very nice as temps make a run into the 60s with mainly dry weather.

For the past week and change, I’ve been talking about a big amplification in the overall pattern for the last week of October. That major disruption of the jet stream can be seen here…

That’s likely to lead to a significant storm system or two and cold air across much of the country…

I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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