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Time posted: 2:22 am

Tracking The Winter Storm Impact

Good Wednesday, everyone. A winter storm is set to impact the region later today through Thursday. Rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow will all be noted with this storm, and that’s a very rare occurrence for the month of November.

Let’s begin with the latest Winter Weather Alerts map. This will update as new information comes in…

All modes of winter precipitation are on the table from late this afternoon into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be showing up across Kentucky. Given the different precipitation types and duration of each, nailing down amounts is super tough for any one location.

Let me begin by saying I do not expect this to be a full blow ice storm in the true sense of the term. The ground temps are still above freezing, so that will help us out in a big way. Still, elevated surfaces could pick up on a coating of ice as far western Kentucky picks up on a heavy band of snow.

I’m leaving open a pretty good window of freezing rain accumulation and will close the gap with my next update. Here’s a general First Call for Ice and Snowfall…

Let me try to break that down a little better:

  • The snow in western Kentucky will be fairly heavy at times. Accumulations of 2″-6″ are possible. Heavier totals will likely be just north of the river.
  • The freezing rain and mix area will experience a little bit of everything from this evening into the wee hours of Thursday morning. By daybreak, temps should be above freezing with mostly rain falling. That rain continues to fall into the daytime hours before switching to light snow from west to east by late afternoon and evening. Light accumulations will be possible.
  • The mainly rain area may still see a touch of frozen at the start, but rain looks like the main precipitation type until late Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when light snow takes over with light accumulation possible.

Let’s get a check of what some of the models are suggesting. The European Model has a healthy swath of freezing rain…

That’s similar to the Canadian…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

For snowfall, the heaviest action is across the far west. The European…

The NAM has some pockets of better snows farther east with the wrap around action late Thursday…

So does the European Model…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

 

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Time posted: 7:53 pm

Winter Storm Watch West

Good evening, folks. A developing winter storm is heading our way and arrives late Wednesday afternoon and hangs around through Thursday night. Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are likely across the state during this rare mid-November winter storm.

A Winter Storm Watch is already out for western parts of the state…

I would expect that to be upgraded to a warning later tonight and for Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for much of the rest of the state. This may approach warning criteria into parts of central Kentucky where freezing rain is much more of a threat.

Earlier today, I pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm THREAT and my thoughts remain unchanged…

Let’s see how the latest models are playing this storm…

European

GFS

There has been the trend for a little more of a snow signal early on across parts of central Kentucky, but the freezing rain signal continues to be the top dog…

GFS

NAM

Hi Res NAM

The  short range Canadian is very amped up on the freezing rain….

Freezing rain may become a pretty big issue starting Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. That should go over to plain rain early Thursday morning as temps slowly climb above freezing.

Temps then drop from west to east with the rain changing to light snow Thursday afternoon and evening. The bulk of the snow falls in western Kentucky, where several inches are possible…

GFS

European

NAM

I will have an update on WKYT-TV at 11 and will First Call it later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:24 pm

Winter Storm Threat Wednesday Night and Thursday

Good afternoon, everyone. Many areas picked up light snow accumulations this morning, making this the 4th day out of the past 5 to deliver winter weather somewhere in the state. As we head into late Wednesday and Thursday, a potent winter storm system rolls our way with freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

Given the nasty mix of frozen precipitation and the potential for several inches of snow in the far west, this is my first ever pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Threat.

Location means everything in terms of what kind of precipitation you will see outside your house over the next few days. The freezing rain potential is VERY rare sight for the month of November, especially for the middle of the month. Some areas may pick up enough freezing rain to cause a few issues.

Here’s my current thinking (subject to change) on how this storm plays out across Kentucky…

The one positive for areas getting in on the freezing rain is that ground temps are above freezing. Still, elevated surfaces may be coated in some ice for a time Wednesday night before rain takes over early Thursday. That rain will end as some snow by evening.  The heavy snow area I’ve highlighted across the west may be in for a thumping heavy wet snow.

Here’s how the GFS shows the progression of the storm…

The Hi Res NAM

The Hi Res NAM continues to spit out some impressive freezing rain amounts…

The regular version of the NAM is lower, but still up there…

The GFS isn’t as generous with the freezing rain, but still has pockets of higher totals…

The Canadian is similar to the Hi-Res NAM with heavier amounts…

As mentioned, areas of the far western part of the state could be in line for a thumper of a wet snow…

GFS

NAM

As the low pulls east on Thursday, rain will end as a period of light snow across the rest of the state. That may put down some light accumulations as it works through.

BTW, I’m keeping an eye on Sunday for a sneaky system moving through here. That may try to ramp up a little more.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also have another KWC update for you later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:15 am

Winter Weather Likely

Good Tuesday, everyone. The day is starting with a wintry mix of rain and snow across much of the region, with a swath of light accumulating snow possible. The system that follows this has the potential to bring a bigger mess to the state as rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet move in.

I will get to that in a moment, but let’s start with what’s going on now.

A band of wet snow may very well be noted across parts of the region to start the day. This would be oriented from southwest to northeast and could put down some slushy accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces. Here are your early day tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

With temps around freezing, watch out for a slick spot or two trying to develop.

The next storm system continues to look like a messy one for our region from Wednesday night through Thursday night. This is the system that wasn’t on any models last week, but I said I was picking up on a signal for a decent storm during this time period. That signal proved to be true and this has the makings of a pretty big hit from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast.

One low develops ahead of the upper level low and works into the lower Ohio Valley then transfers energy to a huge storm along the east coast. This setup may very well bring heavy snow into parts of western Kentucky with the rest of the state going from freezing rain and a mix to rain then ending as some snow. There is a real possibility of a Winter Storm Threat mode later today for the west, especially.

Let’s see how the individual models are playing this.

NAM

GFS

The European

Let’s begin with the freezing rain threat for Wednesday night. I honestly can’t recall talking about freezing rain this early in the cold weather season, but here we are. If we do get a period of freezing rain, I suspect this is mainly on elevated objects since the ground temps are not below freezing.

Every single model sees the freezing rain threat, but to a different extent.

The NAM…

The Hi Res NAM is on steroids and is likely way overdone…

GFS…

The European Model…

Some sleet may also show up at this time. Thankfully, temps rise to above freezing by Thursday morning.

The snow potential of this system continues to be high along and west of the track of the low and upper low. There is likely to be a heck of a comma head of snow that will put down a thumping wet snowfall. Exactly where that sets up is still to be determined, but areas of western Kentucky is seriously in the ball game.

The European shows the thumper threat…

The GFS…

The NAM is just a bit farther west…

 

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Time posted: 7:23 pm

Updating The Winter Weather Potential

Good evening, folks. It has been an absolutely dreary and cold day across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Some sleet and steady showers have been common, now we wait for some light snow to show up later tonight. This is kicking off a very active week that will throw a bigger winter weather system our way by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Let’s start with the first system that can throw some light snow in here later tonight. The best chance for some light snow is across the western and central parts of the state, oriented from southwest to northeast similar to the map I put out several days ago.

The GFS suggests some very light accumulations…

The short range Canadian has a little better coverage of that…

The new version of the GFS also has a little better coverage…

Moral of the story, I can’t rule out some slush accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces into western Kentucky and parts of central and  northern Kentucky.

The next storm system has the chance to bring a wintry mix into the region as early as Wednesday night. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow may develop on the leading edge of our precipitation shield during this time. From there, rain may take over for a while in central and eastern Kentucky, with a better snow chance in the west. As the low works through, wraparound snow may move across the rest of the state…

It’s very interesting to see the models spitting out some freezing rain this early in the year. Look at the European Model for Wednesday night…

Here’s the Freezing rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is similar…

The latest run of the GFS targets western Kentucky as being under and just west of the track of the upper low, giving more dynamic cooling for snow…

The European Model is a bit west with that…

It’s way too early in the season to be talking about precipitation types and the forecasting headaches that come with them. 🙁

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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