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Time posted: 7:23 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a wet and windy evening for much of the region, but the focus of the forecast is on a big storm system rolling in for the coming weekend.

The showers out there this evening are slowly moving away…

I haven’t changed my thoughts at all with the weekend system. The European Model has  been all over the place with this system, but is coming back to what it was originally showing days ago. It’s back to wrapping up this storm system across the region…

We may see a low-topped line of strong thunderstorms racing across the region on Saturday. With our without the storms, we will have a high wind threat. Gusts of 40mph to 50mph will be possible…

This storm is just getting to within the range of the NAM, and the model is showing a little wraparound mix of rain and snow developing late Saturday evening…

The GFS Ensembles keep spitting out the chance for a few flakes in the east for Sunday…

The Thanksgiving week model drama continues, but the GFS is now back to matching the Ensembles with a cold shot of air moving in leading up to the big day. You can see the connection to the VERY cold stuff in western Canada…

Watch how it keeps the cold shots coming through early the following week:

Again, it matches the ensembles and matches what the pattern should be doing next week into Thanksgiving weekend. Watch for some systems diving in from the northwest during this time. The Ensembles think so…

Enjoy your Evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:45 pm

A Quick Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. My time is short, but the weather is super busy, so let’s get after it! 🙂

Today’s rains are blowing across the state and are packing a gusty punch. A few areas may see winds hit 30mph at times. The rains continue into the evening across much of the region…

The 12z model runs are trending back toward a stronger system for Friday night and Saturday. They have slowed the arrival of this storm down just a bit, with the bulk of the showers and storms arriving Saturday…

We will still need to watch for a line of low-topped strong to severe storms sweeping across the state on Saturday. With our without storms, winds can gusty between 40 and 50mph at times.

Colder air pours in Saturday night into Sunday with the chance for a few flakes to fly, especially in the east.

Canadian

GFS Ensembles

I’m not sure I’ve seen the operational models as confused as they are right now. They have ZERO run to run consistency, and are sometimes showing massive swings. The GFS last night lost much of the Thanksgiving week and weekend cold. A few hours later, the same exact model shows this…

Until the operational models show some consistent solutions, they are of little help.

In the meantime, the Ensembles keep doing their steady thing…

I will update things again later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:37 am

Tracking Rain and Watching The Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a cold front heading toward the region today, bringing an increase in rain and gusty winds. The main show arrives this weekend as a much stronger storm system takes aim at our part of the world.

Let’s start with today’s opening act. Winds will gusty up and may reach 30mph at times across parts of the state. Rains arrive from west to east, with the greatest concentration coming this afternoon and evening…

Clouds linger into Thursday as a chilly wind kicks in. We may have quite the temperature spread showing up from north to south, with some areas struggling to get beyond the 40-45 degree range.

Our weekend storm starts to come together to our west on Friday, creating gusty winds across Kentucky. The winds and temps climb through Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind gusts may reach 40mph or greater at times.

As the front plows in here early Saturday, heavy rain and low-topped thunderstorms sweep through…

Colder winds then take over, with temps crashing through the day into the overnight. That northwesterly wind on the GFS continues to bring a few flakes into the eastern half of the state…

The GFS Ensembles continue to show the potential for a few flakes in the same areas…

While the operational models do their regular flipping and flopping, the ensembles haven’t budged with the cold shots for Thanksgiving week and beyond…

The same GFS Ensembles show the potential for some flakes to fly over during the same time…

I will drop by for updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:29 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on the busy weather pattern taking shape for the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that throws several systems our way, with more of a winter look coming late this weekend into Thanksgiving week.

Let’s start with the rain coming in for Wednesday. As we get closer to the front arriving, rain totals on the models are edging up a bit, especially across the northern half of the state. Local amounts of a half inch are possible in a few spots…

Chillier air then dives in here for Thursday, with all eyes shifting toward the weekend storm system. This will be a very strong storm system, but it’s not looking like the powerhouse it was a few days ago. Winds are going to be the main problem around here, with gusts of 40mph or greater from Friday evening through Saturday morning. That’s when the front slams in here with showers and some low-topped thunderstorms…

That strong northwesterly wind really kicks in for a very cold Sunday. Depending on the exact direction of that wind, a few flurries will be possible, especially in the east…

Wind chills with this may drop into the teens at times late Sunday into Monday morning.

Another cold shot then shows up by Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day of next week. We are about a week away from that cold shot, so the delivery method of that cold will change. The latest GFS shows some cold turkey…

This particular model run has some frigid wind chills to start the big holiday…

I mentioned earlier how the European Model seems to be having issues in hot it’s handling the pattern over the next week or so. It was a model that was the first to show the upcoming cold shots, then all the others came aboard. Now, the Euro has really scaled things back.  Normally, I side with the European, but drastic changes in a model family, tend to make me a little skittish. Plus, the troughs ejecting from the southwest would seemingly play into the bias of the model.

To illustrate the point, compare and contrast the snowflake potential from the Ensembles over the next 2 weeks…

GFS

European

Fight, fight, fight. 🙂

I’ll see you guys later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:15 pm

Early Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. We continue to watch a very busy pattern setting up over the next few weeks. It’s a pattern that throws several systems our way, as our pattern grows more wintry this weekend into Thanksgiving week.

The setup for the weekend largely remains the same, but with some slight changes showing up as we get closer. The trend is for a slower and slightly weaker storm system rolling through here this weekend.  That would lower the true severe thunderstorm threat, but keep the high winds, heavy rain, crashing temps and snowflake chance.

The new GFS…

Notice how the winds are more northwesterly now on the GFS, giving central and eastern Kentucky the chance for some flurries or snow showers Sunday and Sunday night…

Again, we would need a true northwesterly wind to come down the length of Lake Michigan to give us enough moisture to provide the flakes around here. Flakes or not, temps for Sunday into Monday are frigid with wind chills way down.

We then see that system getting trapped in southern Canada as a huge block forms to the north of that….

That allows for additional cold to dive in here for Thanksgiving week and weekend. It could be introduced by a storm system, threatening our region with flakes for the big day.

The GFS keeps that block going through Thanksgiving weekend, allowing for winter systems to dive underneath it…

Don’t take that to heart, but it’s an illustration of the winter look the Ensembles have been screaming for a few weeks now.

I’m confident the cold shots are coming, flake chances will be ironed out on a case by case basis. Regardless, this is a far cry from the pattern of the past few years. 😉

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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